课堂,是有格局的——评李洁老师Unit 5 Helping our parents(Story time)一课

聆听了李洁老师的课,让我相信:课堂,也是有格局的。一、仁爱的情怀,营造自由的心理氛围课堂心理气氛是课堂教学的软环境,是师生关系、生生关系的悄然反映,要营造这样的心理氛围,需要教师有海纳百川的胸襟,宁静致远的涵养,更需要教师有仁爱的情怀。你看,李洁老师选的Monkey,Monkey,What are you doing?这首歌,内容和课文完全贴合。

RUIN PROBABILITY IN THE CONTINUOUS-TIME COMPOUND BINOMIAL MODEL WITH INVESTMENT

This article deals with the problem of minimizing ruin probability under optimal control for the continuous-time compound binomial model with investment. The jump mechanism in our article is different from that of Liu et al [4]. Comparing with [4], the introduction of the investment, and hence, the additional Brownian motion term, makes the problem technically challenging. To overcome this technical difficulty, the theory of change of measure is used and an exponential martingale is obtained by virtue of the extended generator. The ruin probability is minimized through maximizing adjustment coefficient in the sense of Lundberg bounds. At the same time, the optimal investment strategy is obtained.

以人为本,共建“生长”课堂——译林新版五下Unit 5 Helping our parents(Story time)一课的教学设计

【设计理念】译林新版《英语》五下Unit 5 Helping our parents这一单元围绕孩子帮助父母做家务这一话题,呈现了现在进行时的用法。作为第一课时的教学内容,Story time板块以Mike的视角呈现了布朗一家人周六一天的生活场景。课文内容贴近学生的生活,容易引起学生的共鸣,且将现在进行时融合在故事情境中更利于学生掌握。《义务教育英语课程标准(2011年版)》指出,英语课程承担着提高学生综合人文素养的任务,英语教学要体现工具性与人文性的双重属性。

Determination of the Financing Scale,Time Limit and Returns from the Investment in BOT Projects

The key aspect to the successful implementation of BOT concept is the raising of finance by project sponsor,so financial engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity.The capital structure and present a model to determine the equity level from the aspects of financing scale,construction time and return on investment are analyzed.The resulting model can help the sponsor to avoid the capital risk,and offer the government a criterion to evaluate management ability of the sponsor.To show the application and availability of this model,a case study is conducted.Thus,this paper is concern with the determination of financing scale,construction time,and return on investment which would assist the sponsor to ensure that the equity level for optimal capital structure is available prior to the implementation stage in BOT project operation.

Approach Evaluating an Investment Project under Uncertainty by Risky Index of Time

The effectiveness of evaluating an investment project based on predicting cash flows depends on the uncertainty of its future cash flows. The remoter the cash flows are, the higher the uncertainty is. Because of this, this paper suggests to discount cash flows by applying risky index of time （RIT）. Thus, the discount rate used to discount the distant cash flows is higher that the discount rate used to discount the near cash flows. By this systematic method, the risk caused by the uncertainty of future cash flows can be hedged in making investment decision. To a certain degree, this approach is reasonable in evaluating investment alternatives under uncertainty. Furthermore, the paper puts forward a practical approach on determining RIT in practice.

The Optimal Time for Harvesting the Seeds of Gui 39722, the Female Parent of a Maize Hybrid Guidan 0810

To determine the optimal time for harvesting the seeds of Gui 39722, which is the female parent of a newly-developed maize hybrid Guidan 0810, the cobs of Gui 39722 were harvested 31 （the first stage）, 34 （the second stage）, 37 （the third stage）, 40 （the fourth stage）, 43 （the fifth stage） and 46 （the sixth stage） d after pollination and oven dried at 38 ~C to constant weight. Then, the 1 000-ker- nel weight, germination rate and the agronomic traits of three-leaf seedlings were measured and compared. The results showed that the seeds of Gui 39722 harvest- ed 43 d after pollination （the fifth stage） had the greatest germination rate, seedling height, vigor index, root dry weight, shoot dry weight and germination potential, and high 1 000-kernel weight （very close to the highest level）, root length, number of roots per seedling and root-shoot ratio. Therefore, 43 d after pollination was the op- timal time for harvesting the seeds of Gui 39722, when the effective accumulated temperature after pollination reached 780.7 ℃ and the ear leaf dried. The seeds harvested at this stage had the highest yield and the best quality. Field sampling revealed that 89.00% to 95.00% （with an average of 91.15%） of the seedlings of six stages of seeds grew well.

Rapid preparation of ceramic moulds for medium-sized superalloy castings with magnesia-phosphate-bonded bauxite-mullite investments

Phosphate-bonded investments have already been widely utilized in dental restoration and micro-casting of artistic products for its outstanding rapid setting and high strength. However, the rapid setting rate of investment slurry has up to now been a barrier to extend the use of such slurry in preparation of medium-sized ceramic moulds. This paper proposes a new process of rapid fabrication of magnesia-phosphate-bonded investment ceramic moulds for medium-sized superalloy castings utilizing bauxite and mullite as refractory aggregates. In order to determine the properties of magnesia-phosphate-bonded bauxite-mullite investments (MPBBMI), a series of experiments were conducted, including modifciation of the workable time of slurry by liquid(mL)/powder(g)(L/P) ratio and addition of boric acid as retard agent and sodium tri-polyphosphate (STP) as strengthening agent, and adjustment of bauxite (g)/mullite(g)(B/M) ratio for mechanical strength. Mechanical vibration was applied to improve initial setting time and fluidity when pouring investment slurry; then an intermediate size ceramic mould for superalloy castings was manufactured by means of this rapid preparing process with MPBBMI material. The results showed that the MPBBMI slurry exhibits proper initial setting time and excellent fluidity when the L/P ratio is 0.64 and the boric acid content is 0.88wt.%. The fired specimens made from the MPBBMI material demonstrated adequate compression strength to withstand impact force of molten metal when the B/M ratio is 0.89 and the STP content is 0.92wt.%. The experimental results confirmed the feasibility of the proposed rapid fabricating process for medium-sized ceramic moulds with MPBBMI material by appropriate measures.

基于InVEST模型的安徽省时间序列生境质量评价

生境质量是生态文明建设的重要内容,是生态环境评价中的重要组成部分。基于1980、1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年7期土地利用数据,运用InVEST模型和GIS空间分析方法,计算安徽省时间序列生境质量指数、生境退化程度指数和生境稀缺性指数,分析安徽省1980—2015年生境质量时空变化特征,从而实现安徽省生境质量的时间序列定量评估。结果表明:(1)1980—2015年安徽省生境退化程度不断加剧,栅格单元之间的空间差异性逐渐扩大,生境退化程度低的区域主要在皖南地区,而沿江地区和巢湖附近区域生境退化程度较高。(2)1980—2005年生境质量降低的速度较为缓慢,2000—2015年则下降较快。安徽省生境质量皖西及皖南地区普遍高于皖北地区,且生境质量水平与土地覆盖类型有着高度的一致性,其中生境质量低的区域对应的主要是建设用地,生境质量高的区域对应的是耕地、林地、草地和水域等。(3)安徽省生境稀缺性整体表现为皖北地区稀缺性高于皖南地区,沿江地区及巢湖附近的生境稀缺性较高。研究结论可为安徽省生态规划和生态空间布局提供理论支撑。

Right Time to Invest in MMF?

The textile industry in China is continuing to expand at a record pace. In June, the output of man-made fiber reached a record of 2.13 million tons, up by20.77% compared with the same time of the previous year, and with a rise of 4.53% against May, representing a new all-time monthly output record.

基于InVEST模型的济南市土壤保持功能变化分析

基于InVEST模型的Sediment Delivery Ratio模块,定量评估济南市2010年、2015年、2020年的土壤保持功能变化情况,分析不同土地利用类型及不同坡度下的土壤保持均值与总量。结果表明:相较于2010年,2020年济南市土壤保持总量显著增加,增幅约为25.3%;不同土地利用类型的土壤保持均值以林地、草地居高,土壤保持总量以林地、耕地居高;从时间上来看,各种地类的土壤保持均值、土壤保持总量均呈现增长趋势;不同坡度的土壤保持均值以25°~35°的陡坡地区最大,土壤保持总量以15°~25°的较陡坡地区最大。可为济南市水利发展和水土保持工作提供参考。

基于耦合FLUS-InVEST模型的广州市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测

[目的]探讨城市建设用地扩张下土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,揭示碳储量时空演变和未来空间分布趋势,为城市规划和生态脆弱区实施精准保护提供科学参考。[方法]本文通过耦合FLUS-InVEST模型,基于解译的土地利用数据和未来土地预测,反演1990—2018年广州市土地和碳储量时空变化特征,分析建设用地扩张与碳储量分布规律,并评估未来碳储量潜力。[结果]广州市土地类型变化特征表现为建设用地的迅速扩张,主要侵占耕地和林地;1990—2018年碳储量减少2.47×106 t,其中2000—2005年降幅最大;高密度碳储量主要分布在北部森林一带,低密度碳储量主要分布在珠江下游;建设用地和低密度碳储量的重心迁移具有高度的一致性;预测2018—2034年碳储量下降1.20×106 t。[结论]广州市建设用地扩张对碳储量影响显著,未来西北和东部部分区域碳储量流失风险较大。

Male parent birds exert more effort to reproduce in two desert passerines

Background:Parental investment by birds is limited by the habitat environment,and a male parent increases its effort to reproduce in birds that live in high-altitude areas.Methods:A study of the reproductive behaviour of the Saxaul Sparrow(Passer ammodendri)and the Isabelline Shrike(Lanius isabellinus)was carried out at the Gansu An’xi Extremely Arid Desert National Nature Reserve in northwest China to determine the reproductive input of passerine species in desert habitats.Results:In Saxaul Sparrows,compared to the female parent,the male parent exhibited a significantly higher fre-quency of nest-defense behaviour(chirping and warning)during nesting,hatching and feeding periods.In addition,in comparison to the female parent,the male parent exhibited almost equal frequencies of nesting and incubation but fed nestlings significantly more times.Similar to the male sparrows,the feeding rates of the male Isabelline Shrikes were significantly higher than those of the females.The hatching rate and fledging rate of the Saxaul Sparrow on aver-age in this study were 81.99 and 91.92%,respectively,while those of the shrike were 69.00 and 96.53%,respectively.Conclusions:These two different passerine species living in the same desert environment exhibited the same trend in their reproductive investments.Adapting to desert environments is a strategy that may have evolved in passerines where male parent birds put more effort than females into reproduction to ensure high reproductive output.

重新审视“好”父母:密集型育儿及其对儿童青少年发展的影响

经过近一个世纪的发展,“密集型育儿”已成为当代社会主流的育儿范式和理想标准,但它并非“完美无缺”。本文以密集型育儿的态度与行为作为框架,对密集型育儿给儿童青少年发展带来的复杂影响进行了研究综述。已有实证证据表明,当密集型育儿达到一定水平时,父母更多的投入和参与不仅不会带来更多增益,还可能在多个方面产生消极影响,且这些影响也会受到阶层、性别和文化的调节。密集型育儿给儿童和父母自身都带来了一定风险,未来研究可以从中国本土化的视角对密集型育儿的影响机制进行更为系统深入的研究。

DAViS:a unified solution for data collection, analyzation,and visualization in real‑time stock market prediction

The explosion of online information with the recent advent of digital technology in information processing,information storing,information sharing,natural language processing,and text mining techniques has enabled stock investors to uncover market movement and volatility from heterogeneous content.For example,a typical stock market investor reads the news,explores market sentiment,and analyzes technical details in order to make a sound decision prior to purchasing or selling a particular company’s stock.However,capturing a dynamic stock market trend is challenging owing to high fluctuation and the non-stationary nature of the stock market.Although existing studies have attempted to enhance stock prediction,few have provided a complete decision-support system for investors to retrieve real-time data from multiple sources and extract insightful information for sound decision-making.To address the above challenge,we propose a unified solution for data collection,analysis,and visualization in real-time stock market prediction to retrieve and process relevant financial data from news articles,social media,and company technical information.We aim to provide not only useful information for stock investors but also meaningful visualization that enables investors to effectively interpret storyline events affecting stock prices.Specifically,we utilize an ensemble stacking of diversified machine-learning-based estimators and innovative contextual feature engineering to predict the next day’s stock prices.Experiment results show that our proposed stock forecasting method outperforms a traditional baseline with an average mean absolute percentage error of 0.93.Our findings confirm that leveraging an ensemble scheme of machine learning methods with contextual information improves stock prediction performance.Finally,our study could be further extended to a wide variety of innovative financial applications that seek to incorporate external insight from contextual information such as large-scale online news articles and social media data.

on time与in time的区别

on time的意思是“按照规定或约定的时间而准时”,言外之意是“既不早,也不晚”.可译为“按时”、“准时”.如:Do the trains ever run on time here?这里的火车准时吗.He arrived at my wedding just on time;neither late nor too soon.他正好按时赶上了我的婚礼,既没有迟到也没有早到。in time 有好几种意思,下面分别加以论述.1.in time最常见的意思是“正巧那个时候”,言外之意是“还不算迟,不过如果再晚—会就会发生其他的事”,可译为“及时”、“正好”。如:

基于共同养育理念的剖宫产产妇泌乳分期护理方案构建及实施

目的探讨基于共同养育理念的泌乳分期护理在剖宫产产妇母乳喂养中的应用效果。方法将200对行剖宫产手术的产妇及配偶按照住院时间分为对照组和试验组各100对。对照组给予常规护理,试验组采用基于共同养育理念的泌乳分期护理,将泌乳过程分为乳腺分化期、乳腺活化期、泌乳建立、泌乳维持4个阶段给予针对性的主题教育及干预措施。结果对照组和试验组分别95对和97对产妇及配偶完成研究及随访。试验组首次母乳喂养得分显著高于对照组,泌乳启动时间显著早于对照组(均P<0.05);试验组中配偶母乳喂养知识水平、出院时纯母乳喂养率、产后6周产妇感知配偶母乳喂养支持总分及各维度得分显著高于对照组(均P<0.05)。结论基于共同养育理念的泌乳分期护理可提高首次母乳喂养得分、新生儿父亲母乳喂养知识水平,缩短泌乳启动时间,提升出院时纯母乳喂养率,改善产妇感知配偶母乳喂养支持情况,从而促进母乳喂养。

Effectiveness of an Educational Intervention for Postpartum Depression in a Pre-Parent Classroom

The global incidence of postpartum depression is estimated at approximately 10% - 20%. A lack of partner support is a key factor associated with perinatal depression. This study examined the effects of an educational intervention that provided information for the prevention and early detection of postpartum depression to first-time mothers and fathers who participated in a “First-Time Parent Class.” The study was utilized quasi-experimental research, conducted first with the control group and followed by an assessment of the intervention group. Mothers were assessed using the Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale and the Japan Child and Family Research Institute Child-Rearing Support Questionnaire. Fathers’ assessments were conducted using the Japan Child and Family Research Institute Child-Rearing Support Questionnaire for Fathers and were based on responses to questions regarding their coping strategies. Data were obtained from 158 data (72 interventions, 86 controls) couples analyzed. No significant difference was found between mothers’ child-rearing difficulty and depression score rates in the first month after childbirth. There was a difference among fathers in the control group and those in the intervention group regarding their responses to maternal depression: the “consult family” (p = 0.035), “consult friends” (p = 0.033), and “consult the city health center” (p = 0.047) variables were higher in the intervention group;however, the effect size was small. Providing first-time parents with information during pregnancy to prevent and detect postpartum depression will deepen parents’ understanding and help them cope with postpartum depression.

新时代家庭功能的复归和建设——从“全职儿女”现象谈起

“全职儿女”古已有之,今日再现源于社会的结构性“诉求”。新中国成立后,特别是改革开放以来,中国家庭发生了快速的核心化转变,其大部分功能转由政府机构和市场力量来承担。然而,当前的“全职儿女”现象凸显了家庭作为社会组织基本“细胞”的功能仍然不可或缺。当今世界正在迈向数算文明主导的时代,有需要也有条件让家庭真正“复归”为一种新时代的新型细胞。为此,我们要立足于家庭生命周期来看待和构建新时代家教家风,在家庭之中夯实新时代的价值底蕴;呼唤“新”的中国式家庭友好型社会文化建设,强调社会主义核心价值观,充分尊重家庭的自主决策权,努力营造“以人为本”、强调家庭关心和人文关怀的社会氛围。

育儿经济支出和育儿时间对女性生育选择的影响

随着中国进入以成本约束驱动为主导的低生育率阶段,育儿成本对生育选择的影响受到关注。但大量研究局限于分析经济成本的影响,忽略了时间成本。随着育儿观念的变化,越来越多的父母认识到育儿质量的重要性,进而更重视父母陪伴和家庭育儿时间。因而,分析育儿经济支出和育儿时间对生育选择的影响才能准确把握现代女性生育选择的重要影响因素,进而提出更具针对性的政策建议。对育儿成本的准确估计成为分析育儿成本影响的关键,然而基于已生育群体的育儿支出直接预测未生育群体的育儿成本时,生育的自选择问题可能导致严重的估计偏差。本文基于2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)和2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,应用Heckman两步法回归女性育儿经济支出和育儿时间方程,消除生育自选择带来的样本选择偏差,并基于模型回归结果预测未生育女性的潜在育儿经济支出和育儿时间,进而分析育儿经济支出和育儿时间对女性生育选择的影响。研究结果表明:育儿经济支出的增加使女性二孩生育概率显著下降,育儿时间的增加使女性一孩生育和二孩生育概率均显著下降;随着女性受教育程度的提高,育儿经济支出对其生育选择的负向影响增大,育儿时间的负向影响减小。异质性分析的结果表明:相比于非灵活就业群体和超时劳动群体,在灵活就业群体和严重超时劳动群体中,育儿时间对女性生育选择的负向影响更小,表明工作时间调整灵活性的提升有助于降低育儿时间对生育选择的限制;同时,拥有较多自由时间的适度劳动群体的生育选择不受育儿时间的影响,表明工作时间减少可以降低育儿时间的约束作用。因此,政府部门应在进一步提供更加全面的育儿保障服务,减轻女性育儿的经济和时间负担的同时,通过对雇用生育女性的企业给予税收优惠或直接经济补贴等政策促进企业为生育女性提供工作时间更加灵活的工作条件;通过为生育女性保留工作岗位、提供专门晋升通道等降低生育对女性职业发展的阻碍作用;通过促进家庭内部育儿分工的重构,增加男性育儿时间等降低女性育儿成本,进而促进生育率提升。

数字经济与技能工资差距——基于CFPS的微观证据

随着引领新一轮科技革命和产业升级的数字技术发展,数字经济必将对中国的就业和收入分配格局产生重大影响,使技能工资差距呈现新特征。通过测度2018年中国各行业的数字经济发展水平,借助普通最小二乘法、无条件分位数回归与Oaxaca-Blinder分解等方法,考察数字经济发展对技能工资差距的影响及其作用机制。结果发现:(1)数字经济显著提高了低技能劳动者工资收入,且能缩小低技能群体和高技能群体内部中低收入差距;(2)数字经济能通过就业创造效应和时间投入效应为劳动者提供更多就业机会和就业岗位,提高工作强度,缩小技能工资差距,但职位晋升效应难以充分发挥;(3)数字经济对不同行业部门和不同社会资本群体的技能工资差距的影响存在显著的差异性。据此提出继续推进数字技术发展、积极探索数字经济背景下对高收入的规范与调节路径、完善对低技能群体的劳动权益保障体系、加强学习型社会建设,并以数字化改革推动公共服务高质量发展和实现基本公共服务均等化等政策建议。