Current climate overrides past climate change in explaining multi-site beta diversity of Lauraceae species in China

Background:We aimed to characterise the geographical distribution of Sørensen-based multi-site dissimilarity(β_(sor))and its underlying true turnover(β_(sim))and nestedness(βsne)components for Chinese Lauraceae and to analyse their relationships to current climate and past climate change.Methods:We used ensembles of small models(ESMs)to map the current distributions of 353 Lauraceae species in China and calculated β_(sor) and its β_(sim) and β_(sne) components.We tested the relationship between β_(sor),β_(sne) and β_(sim) with current climate and past climate change related predictors using a series of simultaneous autoregressive(SAR_(err))models.Results:Spatial distribution of β_(sor)of Lauraceae is positively correlated with latitude,showing an inverse rela-tionship to the latitudinalα-diversity(species richness)gradient.High β_(sor) occurs at the boundaries of the warm temperate and subtropical zones and at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau due to high β_(sne).The optimized SAR_(err) model explainsβ_(sor) andβ_(sne) well,but notβ_(sim).Current mean annual temperature determinesβ_(sor) and β_(sne) of Lauraceae more than anomalies and velocities of temperature or precipitation since the Last Glacial Maximum.Conclusions:Current low temperatures and high climatic heterogeneity are the main factors explaining the high multi-siteβ-diversity of Lauraceae.In contrast to analyses of the β-diversity of entire species assemblages,studies of single plant families can provide complementary insights into the drivers of β-diversity of evolutionarily more narrowly defined entities.

A View of Earth System Model Development

This paper gives a definition of earth system model and shows three development phases of it, including physical climate system model, earth climate system model, and earth system model, based on an inves- tigation of climate system models in the world. It provides an expatiation on the strategic significance of future development of earth system model, an introduction of some representative scientific research plans on development of earth system model home and abroad, and a review of its status and trends based on the models of the fourth assessment report （AR4） ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. Some suggestions on future development of earth system model in China are given, which are expected to be helpful to advance the development.