Combined Optimal Dispatch of Thermal Power Generators and Energy Storage Considering Thermal Power Deep Peak Clipping and Wind Energy Emission Grading Punishment

Peak load and wind energy emission pressure rise more as wind energy penetration keeps growing,which affects the stabilization of the PS(power system).This paper suggests integrated optimal dispatching of thermal power generators and BESS(battery energy storage system)taking wind energy emission grading punishment and deep peak clipping into consideration.Firstly,in order to minimize wind abandonment,a hierarchical wind abandonment penalty strategy based on fuzzy control is designed and introduced,and the optimal grid-connected power of wind energy is determined as a result of minimizing the peak cutting cost of the system.Secondly,considering BESS and thermal power,the management approach of BESS-assisted virtual peak clipping of thermal power generators is aimed at reducing the degree of deep peak clipping of thermal power generators and optimizing the output of thermal power generators and the charging and discharging power of BESS.Finally,Give an example of how this strategy has been effective in reducing abandonment rates by 0.66% and 7.46% individually for different wind penetration programs,and the daily average can reduce the peak clipping power output of thermal power generators by 42.97 and 72.31 MWh and enhances the effect and economy of system peak clipping.

Analysis of CO_2 emissions peak:China's objective and strategy

Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO_2 reduction and emission peak,and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO_2 emissions reduction.They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment,and internal needs,to achieve sustainable development.Generally speaking,a country's CO_2 emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization.By then,connotative economic growth will appear,GDP will grow slowly,energy consumption elasticity will decrease,and energy consumption growth will slow down-dependent mainly on new and renewable energies.Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further.When CO_2 emission reaches its peak,the annual reduction rate of CO_2 intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate;and the annual reduction rate of CO_2 intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption.Therefore,three important approaches to promotion of CO_2 emission peak can be concluded:maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth,strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity,and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO_2 intensity of energy use.By around 2030,China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization.Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3%or higher.The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20-25%,and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6-8%.The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5%will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels.The annual decline in CO_2 intensity of GDP will reach 4.5%or higher,which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5%in order to reach CO_2 emission peak.This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth.Achieving CO_2 emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development,but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green,low-carbon development.The CO_2 emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons,which means that CO_2 emission will increase by less than 50%compared with 2010.The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons,which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US,future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO_2 emission peak discussed above.It depends on current and future strategies and policies,as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation,innovation,and new energy technologies.If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations,the time required to reach CO_2emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected.Therefore,we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance;to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities;to enact mid-to long-term energy development strategies;and to establish and improve a system of laws,regulations,and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green,low-carbon development Oriented by positive and urgent CO_2 reduction and peak targets,the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green,low-carbon development as soon as possible.

Multi-model comparison of CO2 emissions peaking in China:Lessons from CEMF01 study

The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.

Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions,but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation.The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades.This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020,particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory.Here scenarios DGS-2020,LGS2025,LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy,energy and climate security for the greener development in China.The findings suggest that the period of 2025e2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth,annually 0.2%in average and cumulatively 3%deviation to BAU in 2030.The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70%and 45%respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20%and 45%.Meantime,the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%,the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65%by 2030 compared to the 2005 level,and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2in 2015e2030.

Estimate of Peaks of Carbon Emissions and Pricing of Carbon Emission Permit in China

With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic growth were analyzed. The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%, and the peak of China＇s carbon emissions will appear in 2017. As a result, energy conser- vation and emission reduction is realized, and China＇s international talk power about carbon emission will improved. However, the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest, and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China＇s economic growth is the largest. Therefore, consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.

Estimate of China's energy carbon emissions peak and analysis on electric power carbon emissions

China's energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110%of its 2020 level under the following conditions:1)China's gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030;2)coal's share of the energy consumption is 61%in 2020 and55%in 2030;3)non-fossil energy's share increases from 15%in 2020 to 20%in 2030;4)through 2030,China's GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%;5)the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average;and 6)the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%.China's electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW,with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020.Of that output 66%would be from coal,5%from gas,and 29%from non-fossil energy.By 2030,electricity generating capacity would reach3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output.Of that output,56%would be from coal,6%from gas,and 37%from non-fossil energy.From 2020 to 2030,CO2emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption,and relatively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units.During 2020e2030,the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China's energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points.Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118%of the 2020 level in 2030,the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use.This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak,including energy system optimization,green-coal-fired electricity generation,and demand side management.

A review of research on China's carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism

In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China's economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from "research on carbon emission history" to "carbon emission trend prediction," from "research on paths of realizing peak" to "peak restraint research," provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore,this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism.Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.

An analysis of China's CO_2 emission peaking target and pathways

China has set the goal for its CO2emissions to peak around 2030,which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China's resource conservation,environmental protection,shift in economic development patterns,and CO2emission reduction to avoid climate change.The development stage where China maps out the CO2emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries.It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2emission peaking.Given that China's potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%,and China's total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%e1.5%annually around2030,new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%e8%annually to meet the desired CO2emission peak.The share of new and renewable energies in China's total primary energy supply will be approximately 20%by 2030.At that time,the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3,and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2intensity will also be higher than 4%to ensure the sustained growth of GDP.To achieve the CO2emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon development transformation,China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution,the innovation of advanced energy technologies,the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism,and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development,the peaking control of CO2emissions is pivotal,as well as other pollutants.In this paper,we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations.By analyzing the energy consumptions,coal consumptions,relating emissions and their impacts on GDP,we found that with the structure adjustment policy,the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53%to 48%and CO2emissions will decrease by 11.3%e22.8%compared to the baseline scenario.With the energy intensity reduction policy,CO2emissions will decrease by 33.3%in 2030 and 47.8%in 2050 than baseline scenario.Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects.In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control,the economic costs can not be ignored.The GDP will decrease by 2.96%e8.23%under different scenarios.Therefore,integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

Stimulated emission and multi-peaked absorption in a four level N-type atom

Absorption and refraction of the inner transition F2 ←→F3 of the closed four level N-type atom have been investigated under a weak field. The outer transitions F1←→F3 and F2←→F4 are resonantly interacted with drive field with frequency ωc and Rabi frequency Ωc, and saturation field with ωs and Ωs, respectively. For the suitable Rabi frequencies Ωc and Ωs, we obtain the Mellow absorption spectrum of probe field. The reason is that the drive field excites the atom to the upper level F3 and simultaneously the saturation field takes the atom out of the lower level F2, leading to the stimulated emission. Meanwhile, due to the dynamic energy splitting induced by the drive and saturation fields, the two- and four-peaked absorption spectra are observed. At the zero off-resonance detuning of probe field, we also find the transfer of dispersion from negative to positive with an increment of Ωs. Finally, the refractive index enhancement is predicted for a wide spectral region.

Recycling Carbon Resources from Waste PET to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emission:Carbonization Technology Review and Perspective

Greenhouse gas emissions from waste plastics have caused global warming all over the world,which has been a central threat to the ecological environment for humans,flora and fauna.Among waste plastics,waste polyethylene terephthalate(PET)is attractive due to its excellent stability and degradation-resistant.Therefore,merging China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals would be beneficial.In this review,we summarize the current state-of-the-art of carbon emission decrease from a multi-scale perspective technologically.We suggest that the carbon peak for waste PET can be achieved by employing the closed-loop supply chain,including recycling,biomass utilization,carbon capture and utilization.Waste PET can be a valuable and renewable resource in the whole life cycle.Undoubtedly,all kinds of PET plastics can be ultimately converted into CO_(2),which can also be feedstock for various kinds of chemical products,including ethyl alcohol,formic acid,soda ash,PU,starch and so on.As a result,the closed-loop supply chain can help the PET plastics industry drastically reduce its carbon footprint.

Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3) and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4) has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4) into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.

Research on Carbon Reduction Strategy of China’s Industrial Chain with the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic logic of carbon reduction in the industrial chain is analyzed,and then the specific strategies for carbon reduction in the industrial chain are proposed,including:reducing the use of fossil energy and vigorously developing the new energy industry;reducing carbon through energy conservation,industrial upgrading,development of circular economy,and application of carbon capture technology;reducing carbon through low-carbon transformation of logistics industry,innovation of trading methods,and promotion of low-carbon green consumption.The external guarantee system for carbon reduction includes the introduction of relevant policies,laws and regulations,and the use of carbon emission trading mechanism.

Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.

中国实现碳中和:降碳风险的识别与应对

中国实现碳中和目标必将引发能源利用模式的深度变革,重塑各领域生产生活方式既是一场系统性变革,也面临微观与宏观的转型风险。从系统视角阐释中国零碳转型过程中降碳风险及其风险的系统传导机制,并基于低碳/零碳/负碳技术创新及转化的“研发—应用—推广”的阶段过程,解析了零碳转型过程中风险因素的传导路径;指出技术成熟度、产品绿色溢价、资产沉没成本、技术应用及供应链保障五类主要降碳风险,评估其对中国碳中和目标实现和社会经济发展的影响。提出中国需从系统视角慎重把握目标实现过程中的降碳风险,从政策引领、监测核算、科技人才、创新环境、国际合作等多方面共同发力和协同推进,全局把控设计应对政策措施,应深入实施低碳技术领跑者政策、加强碳排放核算与碳减排风险评估、积极培育壮大低碳技术研发力量、营造有利于低碳创新的社会环境。

多情景下中型航空公司碳排放预测研究

在国际国内减碳的大背景下,文章选择国内某中型航空公司作为研究对象,首先利用ICAO碳排放计算法,依据航班进程的两个阶段(LTO和CCD阶段),对2015—2019年的碳排放量状况进行计算分析,再通过设置不减碳情景、基础减碳情景、快速减碳情景和理想减碳情景4个民航发展情景,使用基于Python语言的蒙特卡洛模拟方法,以2021年为基准,对该航空公司2022—2035年内的碳排放进行仿真预测。结果表明:由于中型航空公司的发展需求,4种情况下都无法完成碳排放总量达峰,但其每万架次碳排放量明显降低,表明碳减排措施的有效性。最后从国内外理论研究和现实应用的角度出发,为中型航空公司提出了多条低碳发展建议,以助力我国民航业早日实现碳达峰、碳中和的重要目标。

云南省建筑业CO_(2)排放峰值及达峰时间预测

建筑业减碳是助力我国实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的重要抓手。运用决策试行与评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法从直接碳排放、间接碳排放、运行碳排放和环境代价四个维度对云南省建筑业CO_(2)排放影响因素予以了系统分析。在此基础上采用系统动力学构建出云南省建筑业CO_(2)排放系统仿真模型,从而揭示预测出不同情境下云南省建筑业CO_(2)排放的预期峰值和时间。模拟结果表明:在高碳情景下,云南省建筑业将于2038年实现碳达峰,峰值为1091.33百万吨;而在低碳情景和基准情景下,云南省建筑业将于2035年实现碳达峰,其峰值分别为455.91百万吨、942.04百万吨。最后,给出促进云南省建筑业低碳发展的对策建议。

机器学习驱动锅炉燃烧优化技术的现状与展望

伴随可再生能源发电装机容量快速增加,深度调峰过程中负荷多变、燃烧失稳等不稳定工况对火电机组的燃烧优化控制提出了更高要求,快速发展的人工智能技术与深度学习算法为锅炉参数预测建模及优化提供了重要手段。在机器学习算法方面,总结了特征筛选与建模算法的研究现状,提出了传统统计学方法与线性降维方法的科学解释性较差且不能很好地辨识高维数据,结合深度学习算法的特征筛选方法在处理复杂的火电机组数据时优势更明显;对比了多种神经网络在NO_(x)排放浓度建模中的优缺点,其中长短期记忆神经网络与卷积神经网络在处理时序数据时效果更好、集成模型通过组合不同学习器的优势可提高整个模型的泛化能力和鲁棒性。在预测模型的应用方面,通过对SCR脱硝系统建立预测模型可以方便运行人员模拟并修正可调参数,同时作为软测量手段监测燃烧系统运行状态;引入NO_(x)排放浓度预测模型的前馈控制和模型预测控制等先进控制手段可有效改善火电机组传统PID控制效果较差的问题;在多目标优化中NO_(x)脱除效率通常与锅炉效率或脱硝成本共同作为优化目标,以期实现经济效益与社会效益的和谐统一。

国家中心城市交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构及动因研究

为科学把握城市交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构,实现交通运输业可持续发展,基于2011—2020年我国9个国家中心城市交通碳排放数据,构建考虑非期望产出的全局超效率SBM模型(GB-US-Super-SBM模型)并测算交通碳排放效率,利用修改的引力模型建立空间关联网络,在此基础上应用社会网络分析方法厘清交通碳排放效率空间网络结构及其动因。结果表明:1)研究期内,9个国家中心城市交通碳排放效率整体水平不高,城市间存在较大差距。2)国家中心城市交通碳排放效率的空间关联呈现网络结构形态,并逐渐形成了天津、西安、郑州等多个网络中心;空间网络关联性以2017年为节点呈现先增强后减弱的趋势;天津、西安、郑州等城市发挥着“桥梁”和“中介”作用,对空间网络的形成发挥了重要作用。3)经济发展水平差异、城镇化水平差异、节能技术水平差异和空间邻接关系等因素在交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构中发挥显著作用,其中空间邻接关系和经济发展水平差异的影响最显著。