Optimal reduction and equilibrium carbon allowance price for the thermal power industry under China’s peak carbon emissions target

As the largest source of carbon emissions in China,the thermal power industry is the only emission-controlled industry in the first national carbon market compliance cycle.Its conversion to clean-energy generation technologies is also an important means of reducing CO_(2)emissions and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutral commitments.This study used fractional Brownian motion to describe the energy-switching cost and constructed a stochastic optimization model on carbon allowance(CA)trading volume and emission-reduction strategy during compliance period with the Hurst exponent and volatility coefficient in the model estimated.We defined the optimal compliance cost of thermal power enterprises as the form of the unique solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by combining the dynamic optimization principle and the fractional It?’s formula.In this manner,we obtained the models for optimal emission reduction and equilibrium CA price.Our numerical analysis revealed that,within a compliance period of 2021–2030,the optimal reductions and desired equilibrium prices of CAs changed concurrently,with an increasing trend annually in different peak-year scenarios.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis revealed that the energy price indirectly affected the equilibrium CA price by influencing the Hurst exponent,the depreciation rate positively impacted the CA price,and increasing the initial CA reduced the optimal reduction and the CA price.Our findings can be used to develop optimal emission-reduction strategies for thermal power enterprises and carbon pricing in the carbon market.

Analysis of factors influencing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region and projections of carbon peak scenarios

Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)through path analysis,and to forecast carbon emissions in the YRD from the baseline scenario,factor regulation scenario and integrated scenario to reach the peak.The results show that:(1)Jiangsu's high carbon emission pattern is the main reason for the YRD hindering the synergistic regulation of carbon emissions.(2)Human factors,institutional factors and economic growth factors can all contribute to carbon emissions in the YRD region,while technological and industrial factors can generally suppress carbon emissions in the YRD region.(3)Under the capital regulation scenario,the YRD region has the highest level of carbon emission synergy,with Jiangsu reaching its peak five years earlier.Under the balanced regulation scenario,the YRD region as a whole,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui reach the peak as scheduled.

The prospect of natural gas hydrate(NGH)under the vision of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

To achieve the goals of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality,China's energy system will continue to accelerate the transition to a clean and low-carbon one.As the cleanest fossil fuel,natural gas is regarded as an inevitable choice for China to build a clean,safe,efficient,and low-carbon energy system and fulfill the goal of“double carbon”.However,the domestic conventional natural gas supply remains rigid while the stimulation of unconventional natural gas is still limited.If we have a firm grip on the principal line of“understanding the ocean–developing resources–ensuring security”to realize the large-scale development of 85 trillion square meters of NGH in the South China Sea,then we could not only greatly reduce China‘s foreign dependence on natural gas,but also guarantee the safety of China‘s natural gas multi-path supply and safeguard the sovereignty of the South China Sea.Thus,the goal of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality can be achieved in no time.

Policy and Management of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality:A Literature Review

The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studies that systematically identify opportunities to achieve carbon neutrality.To address this gap,this study comprehensively collates and investigates 1105 published research studies regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In doing so,the principles of development in this area are quantitively analyzed from a space–time perspective.At the same time,this study traces shifts and alterations in research hotspots.This systematic review summarizes the priorities and standpoints of key industries on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Furthermore,with an emphasis on five key management science topics,the scientific concerns and strategic demands for these two carbon emission-reduction goals are clarified.The paper ends with theoretical insights on and practical countermeasures for actions,priority tasks,and policy measures that will enable China to achieve a carbon-neutral future.This study provides a complete picture of the research status on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,as well as the research directions worth investigating in this field,which are crucial to the formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies.

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China:Goals,implementation path and prospects

Climate change is a common problem in human society.The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.The proposal of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has led China into the era of climate economy and set off a green change with both opportunities and challenges.On the basis of expounding the objectives and specific connotation of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization,this paper systematically discusses the main implementation path and the prospect of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization.China’s path to realizing carbon neutralization includes four directions:(1)in terms of carbon dioxide emission control:energy transformation path,energy conservation,and emission reduction path;(2)for increasing carbon sink:carbon capture,utilization,and storage path,ecological governance,and land greening path;(3)in key technology development:zero-carbon utilization,coal new energy coupling,carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS),energy storage technology and other key technology paths required to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization;(4)from the angle of policy development:Formulate legal guarantees for the government to promote the carbon trading market;Formulate carbon emission standards for enterprises and increase publicity and education for individuals and society.Based on practicing the goal and path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,China will vigorously develop low carbon and circular economy and promote green and high-quality economic development;speed up to enter the era of fossil resources and promoting energy transformation;accelerate the integrated innovation of green and low-carbon technologies and promote carbon neutrality.

Research on power-supply cost of regional power system under carbon-peak target

With the establishment of the carbon-peak target by 2030,the direction of carbon emission reduction in China’s energy system has been further clarified.As the industry with the largest proportion of carbon emissions in China,the lowcarbon transformation of the electric power industry is critical to realize the carbon-peak target.Current research mostly focuses on technical analysis or system cost accounting of the carbon-peak realization path at the national level.There is a lack of targeted research on regional power systems with complex inter-regional power flow exchange and limited energy resource development.Simultaneously,the calculation of the system cost lacks the perspective of the life cycle and ignores the inertia of the stock and change inertia of incremental disturbance.From the perspective of the life cycle,this study proposes a calculation model of power supply cost for regional power systems according to the carbon-peak target,analyzes the realization path of the carbon target from an economic perspective,and provides references for the path selection and policy formulation of system transformation.

Estimate of China's energy carbon emissions peak and analysis on electric power carbon emissions

China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2） coal＇s share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3） non-fossil energy＇s share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4） through 2030, China＇s GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5） the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6） the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China＇s electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China＇s energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.

Pathways to peak carbon emissions in China by 2030: An analysis in relation to the economic growth rate

With less than ten years left to meet its pledge to peak carbon dioxide emissions(peak emissions hereafter) by 2030,China has entered a critical emissions reduction stage. How to meet this commitment in a context in which GDP per capita will double from 2020 by 2035 is a major decision-making issue for the Chinese government and people and one which warrants further study. To reveal the relationships between the GDP growth rate, the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the time to reach peak emissions, this study translates the question as to “when China's carbon emissions peak will occur” into “how can one control the rate of carbon intensity decrease at a given GDP growth rate”. In the light of the results of a random forest algorithm used to identify and project the key drivers of carbon intensity in China, a mathematical model was developed to simulate different scenarios relating to decreases in carbon intensity. The date at which Chinese carbon emissions will peak is predicted by comparing the rate of decrease of carbon intensity with the GDP growth rate. The results show that the time to peak emissions depends on the relationship between the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the GDP growth rate, where the former depends mainly on the energy structure and policy. If China's annual GDP growth rate were 5.0% during the 15th Five-Year Plan, and if the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption were 23.0% or above, China's carbon emissions will peak before2030. If the share of non-fossil fuels were 20.0% or less, China might not be able to reach its 2030 target. In this latter case an acceleration in the pace of energy restructuring would be required to reach peak emissions before 2030. The projected peak emissions scenarios suggest that the carbon peak will occur between 2025 to 2029, with average peak emissions of 11.2 billion tons and a distribution ranging from a minimum of 10.5 billion and a maximum of 11.9 billion tons. If the GDP growth rate were4.5%, 5.5% or 6.0% during the 15th Five-year Plan, the share of non-fossil energy must reach 23.0%, 25.0% or 27.0%,respectively, to ensure that emissions peak by 2030. The results of this study provide a series of reference points for China's pursuit of feasible pathways to peak carbon emissions by 2030.

Estimate of Peaks of Carbon Emissions and Pricing of Carbon Emission Permit in China

With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic growth were analyzed. The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%, and the peak of China＇s carbon emissions will appear in 2017. As a result, energy conser- vation and emission reduction is realized, and China＇s international talk power about carbon emission will improved. However, the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest, and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China＇s economic growth is the largest. Therefore, consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.

An Empirical Study on China＇s Energy Supply-and-Demand Model Considering Carbon Emission Peak Constraints in 2030

China＇s energy supply-and-demand model and two related carbon emission scenarios, including a planned peak scenario and an advanced peak scenario, are designed taking into consideration China＇s economic development, technological progress, policies, resources, environmental capacity, and other factors. The analysis of the defined scenarios provides the following conclusions： Primary energy and power demand will continue to grow leading up to 2030, and the growth rate of power demand will be much higher than that of primary energy demand. Moreover, low carbonization will be a basic feature of energy supply-and-demand structural changes, and non-fossil energy will replace oil as the second largest energy source. Finally, energy- related carbon emissions could peak in 2025 through the application of more efficient energy consumption patterns and more low-carbon energy supply modes. The push toward decarbonization of the power industry is essential for reducing the peak value of carbon emissions.

A review of research on China's carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism

In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China's economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from "research on carbon emission history" to "carbon emission trend prediction," from "research on paths of realizing peak" to "peak restraint research," provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore,this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism.Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.

STUDY ON THE CORROSION PEAK OF CARBON STEEL IN MARINE SPLASH ZONE

This study determined that the range of the marine splash zone (MSZ) of China’s Qingdao,Zhoushan. Xiamen. Zhanjiang harbour area was about 0-2.4 m above the mean high water level (MHWL) of the seawater that the MSZ corrosion peak (MSZCP) was usually 0.6- 1.2 m above the MHWL. and was caused by the large salt particle accumulation on the A3 carbon steel test sample surface and by the high frequency altemations of wet and dry environmental conditions around the samples.

Research on the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization Model in Colleges and Universities:Taking China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as an Example

The“3060”goal demonstrates China’s responsibility in actively responding to global climate,enhances China’s voice and influence in climate governance,and sets an example of energy conservation and emission reduction for developing countries.As the main institutions that educate people for the Party and the country,colleges and universities have the responsibility to explore the realization path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization against the new problems encountered in the practice of energy conservation and emission reduction in colleges and universities.In response to the national strategy and the action plan of the Ministry of Education,taking the carbon practice of China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as the starting point,this paper conducts benchmarking research on the path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in universities through the ecological factor method,campus carbon footprint,and questionnaire analysis.

Design of detector to monitor the Bragg peak location of carbon ions by means of prompt γ-ray measurements with Geant4

Real-time monitoring of the Bragg peak location of carbon ions is urgently required for the quality control of hadron therapy. In this study, we design an annular detector to monitor the Bragg peak location of carbon ions with Geant4 simulation. This 360° surrounding structure has a high detection efficiency for the small-dose situation. The detector consists of a multilayered collimator system and an Na I scintillator for prompt gamma counting. The multilayered collimator includes a lead layer to prevent unwanted gammas and the paraffin and boron carbide layers to moderate and capture fast neutrons. An inclination of the detector further diminishes the background signal caused by neutrons. The detector, with optimized parameters, is applicable to carbon ions of different energies. In addition, the scintillator is replaced by an improved EJ301 organic liquid scintillator to discriminate gammas and neutrons. Inserting thin Fe slices into the liquid scintillator improves the energy deposition efficiency. The Bragg peak location of 200 Me V/u carbon ions can be monitored by prompt gamma detection with the improved liquid scintillator.

STUDY ON THE SEQUENCE STRUCTURE OF SBR BY ^(13)C-NMR METHOD Ⅱ. PEAK ASSIGNMENT FOR ALIPHATIC CARBONS SPECTRA

The study on ^(13)C-NMR spectra of aliphatic carbon region of emuision-processed and solution-processed (by lithium catalyst) SBR was carried out. The assignments for more than thirty odd peaks observed experimentally were made by using 'corresponding analysis' method, combined with the empirical parameters reported in literature. The peak intensifies were calculated based on BemouUian statistic assumption.

Risks,Challenges and Countermeasures for China’s Power Industry to Cope with Carbon Peaking

The situation of China’s power industry to achieve carbon peaking and risks and challenges for China’s power industry to cope with carbon peaking were analyzed, and then macro countermeasures for the power industry to cope with carbon peaking were proposed.

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution,and Optimized Paths of Carbon Pressure in Northwestern Sichuan under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

Consolidating carbon sink capacity and reducing carbon pressure are important channels to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals actively yet prudently.In order to study the current situation of carbon pressure in the Northwestern Sichuan,we took the carbon pressure of the Aba Tibetan-Qiang autonomous prefecture(Aba prefecture)as an example and used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)approach to measure the carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and the carbon balance index(CBI)of each county-level city in Aba prefecture from 2012 to 2020.The study found that:(a)There was a continuous trend of declining carbon emissions,increased carbon uptake,and decreased CBI in Aba prefecture during the sample period,but there is a large variability among county-level cities;(b)Aba prefecture differs in the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and CBI.Based on the research results,we propose several optimized paths for alleviating the current carbon pressure situation in the Northwestern Sichuan.

Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.

Research progress on construction of monitoring system and platform for Carbon peak and Carbon neutral in Chinese fisheries

In order to thoroughly implement the national research on peak carbon dioxide emissions’carbon neutral strategy,this paper uses China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)network database to search the literature reports on the theme of carbon neutrality in peak carbon dioxide emissions,and makes bibliometric analysis from key words,institutions and research fields.The literature mainly focuses on 2020-2021;the research hotspots are peak carbon dioxide emissions,carbon neutrality,and carbon emission.After analysis,the relevant research in the fishery field is still in the initial stage,and the construction of monitoring system and platform needs to be further strengthened to provide technical support for realizing the goal of"double carbon"in the fishery field in the future.

Study on the Carbon Effect of Agricultural Land Remediation Based on the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

With the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality,this paper studies the carbon effect of agricultural land remediation.In this paper,the carbon effect mechanism and calculation method of land consolidation,the proposed national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,and the requirements put forward by agricultural land consolidation followed were analyzed.Then,the application research on the carbon effect accounting of agricultural land consolidation was conducted.Besides,the application process of carbon effect accounting of land consolidation with the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Therefore,we hope this study will play an effective role to advance the carbon effect research in the regulation of agricultural land.