Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method

Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.

Urban natural gas demand and factors analysis in China:Perspectives of price and income elasticities

Urban natural gas is becoming the main sector driving China’s natural gas consumption growth in recent years.This study explores the impacts of urban natural gas price,wage,socioeconomic determinants,and meteorological conditions on urban natural gas demand in China over 2006-2017.Furthermore,this study also analyzes the potential regional heterogeneity and asymmetry in the impacts of gas price and income on China’s urban gas demand.Empirical results reveal that:(1)The increased gas price can significantly reduce the urban gas demand,and the average income level may effectively promote the gas demand,also,a strong switching effect exists between electricity and natural gas in urban China;(2)these impacts are heterogeneous in regions among China,urban natural gas demand is largely affected by the gas price in regions with high-gas-price and by income in regions with low-gas-price;and(3)the impact of gas price on urban gas consumption is consistent in regions with different urban natural gas consumption,while the impact of income is asymmetric.This study further provides several policy implications for improving the urban natural gas industry in China.

How did the price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in China evolve from 1999 to 2015? The role of natural gas price reform

As a cleaner,high-efficiency,and low-carbon fuel,natural gas has been an important fuel resource for China.To achieve a substantial increase in natural gas demand,China has sought to reform its natural gas pricing mechanism.Employing a set of unbalanced panel data for China’s 30 provinces covering 1999-2015,this study aims to estimate the evolving price and income elasticities of natural gas demand and explore the effect of natural gas price reform in China.For this purpose,a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity is utilized.The results suggest that although natural gas demand in China still lacks negative price elasticity,the phenomenon is improving.Moreover,the estimates suggest that natural gas demand in China is indeed becoming increasingly sensitive to income changes.Our estimates also provide strong evidence in favor of the effect of natural gas price reform on the change in price elasticity as the price elasticity decreases in five of the seven regions.In addition,the results indicate large variations in the change in price and income elasticities of natural gas demand across China’s regions.Natural gas demand is becoming more price inelastic in Southwest China and Northwest China,while such demand in North China and East China responds less sensitively to income changes.These findings offer several policy suggestions for the reform of China’s natural gas market at the national and regional levels.

Natural Gas Management of Bangladesh:Energy Powerhouse of SE Asia?

Already Bangladesh has proven to be a natural gas giant in the region and to the energy producing community of the world.The Bangladesh sub-surface is according to the present knowledge mainly gas prone,with some potential for future oil discoveries. Within the 144549 km^2 territory,Bangladesh has

Current Status and Development Trend of Natural Gas Industry in China

In China, the proven reserves of natural gas is 3.86 trillion cubic meters (tcm). This figure will quite possibly increase at a high speed in the future. At present, the annual production of natural gas has exceeded 34 billion cubic meters (bcm), which, likewise, will rise sharply. The pipeline construction has basically taken shape, which will be gradually perfected. And the gas consumption market is in the startup stage, which will be rapidly expanded in the quite near future.

Regulating Aspects and Geologic Solutions of the Natural Gas Building Capacities to a Gas Market Model in Albania

Caspian Gas into Balkans over medium to long term becames Albanian case on June 2013 when TAP route was selected. After Albanian National Territory Council approved TAP AG＇s Compound Development Permit, the project should start Construction Phase 1. Existing gas pipeline connections of Albania within the European network via TAP, is highly estimated by energy authorities in both technical and regulating aspects. New pipelines are projected to be build in order to meet local energy consume and seasonal fluctuations, as well as needs of Kosovo and FYROM. Some of important points： determination on the capacity sector building for a due Albanian Gas Market Model, supply options on the future gasification, alternatives of opening underground gas storages in the salt domes of Dumre region and extending pipelines to neighboring countries. By assistance of the Secretariat of Energy Community, MEI starts drafting the new gas law to meet Third Energy Package. TAP project, IAP project, Albania-Kosovo Pipeline, an LNG plant and terminals coastal construction, can contribute on the diversification of gas supply. Underground Gas Storage potentials are geologic solution target, considering the Upper Miocene depleted sandstone gas fields of Divjaka, as well as the Dumre evaporitic deposits diapir of the Upper Triassic.

Prospect of Natural Gas Utilization in China

This paper introduces the source and utility circumstance of natural gas in China. The utility cir-cumstance of natural gas is discussed in detail, such as, natural gas as feedstock is produced to acetylene;natural gas is used to cut metal;natural gas is applied to generate ethylene;natural gas instead of heavy oil is fired to produce chromium trioxide. In so doing, the energy demand of China will be better met with least damage to the environment. According to the full utility of natural gas sources, their good economic and social benefits are obtained.

Near- and Mid-term Development of Natural Gas Market in China

Economy growth in China is expected to slow down a little during the I3th Five-Year-Plan period. So will the domestic gas demand and supply market, which may be quite different from that of the 11 th and 12th Five-Year-Plan periods. The paper summarized the state quo of gas supply and demand in the country and analyzed factors that may affect the demand and supply balance in the new period. It is proposed that there will be many uncertainties in achieving supply and demand goals of gas set for tire period, and gas glut is also very possible during the time. To deal with the problem, it is suggested that several measures be taken nationwide： improving utilization of gas in several sectors, straightening and optimizing the pricing mechanism, speeding up construction of infrastructures, implementing relevant policies and boosting up supen^ision and monitor of tire industry.

New Situation of China Natural Gas Industry

China natural gas industry is at a turning point. Growth of mid-long term natural gas consumption may maintain at about 10%, supply is sufficient or even "over-sufficient", natural gas price will be determined by competition, oil and gas pipeline facilities will be opened fairly, and private enterprises will play important roles in natural gas exploration, development, storage, transportation, and trade. It can been foreseen that China natural gas industry is very likely to take a turn in next 10 years, and a modern natural gas market with consumption about 500 billion cubic meters will come into being characterized by complete supervision system, diversified market, steady supply, fairly opened pipelines, transparent trading mechanism, and competitive prices.

Optimal Operation of Integrated Energy Systems Subject to Coupled Demand Constraints of Electricity and Natural Gas

This paper proposes a hybrid multi-objective optimization and game-theoretic approach(HMOGTA)to achieve the optimal operation of integrated energy systems(IESs)consisting of electricity and natural gas(E&G)utility networks,multiple distributed energy stations(DESs),and multiple energy users(EUs).The HMOGTA aims to solve the coordinated operation strategy of the electricity and natural gas networks considering the demand characteristics of DESs and EUs.In the HMOGTA,a hierarchical Stackelberg game model is developed for generating equilibrium strategies of DESs and EUs in each district energy network(DEN).Based on the game results,we obtain the coupling demand constraints of electricity and natural gas(CDCENs)which reflect the relationship between the amounts and prices of electricity and cooling(E&C)that DESs purchase from utility networks.Furthermore,the minimization of conflicting costs of E&G networks considering the CDCENs are solved by a multi-objective optimization method.A case study is conducted on a test IES composed of a 20-node natural gas network,a modified IEEE 30-bus system,and 3 DENs,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed HMOGTA to realize fair treatment for all participants in the IES.

China's Oil Demand and Resource Potential

The analysis based on the statistics conducted in the past decades shows that China's oil demand will rise by about 0.7 percent for every 1 percent increase in its gross national product(GNP).The oil demand will have to climb by 6 percent on average each year if the country registers an average annual increase of 9 percent in its GNP.The oil demand is expected to rise by 5 percent annually in the upcoming years even if the efforts are made to upgrade the equipment and tech-nology and boost the efficiency.

Bi-Level Bidding and Multi-Energy Retail Packages for Integrated Energy Service Providers Considering Multi-Energy Demand Elasticity

How to effectively use the multi-energy demand elasticity of users to bid in the multi-energy market and formulate multi-energy retail packages is an urgent problem which needs to be solved by integrated energy service providers(IESPs)to attract more users and reduce operating costs.This paper presents a unified clearing of electricity and natural gas based on a bi-level bidding and multi-energy retail price formulation method for IESPs considering multi-energy demand elasticity.First,we propose an operating structure of IESPs in the wholesale and retail energy markets.The multi-energy demand elasticity model of retail-side users and a retail price model for electricity,gas,heat and cooling are established.Secondly,a bi-level bidding model for IESPs considering multi-energy demand elasticity is established to provide IESPs with wholesale-side bidding decisions and retail-side energy retail price decisions.Finally,an example is given to verify the proposed method.The results show that the method improves the total social welfare of the electricity and natural gas markets by 7.99%and the profit of IESPs by 1.40%.It can reduce the variance of the electricity,gas,and cooling load curves,especially the reduction of the variance of the electricity load curve can which reach 79.90%.It can be seen that the research in this paper has a positive effect on repairing the limitations of integrated energy trading research and improving the economics of the operation of IESPs.