Projection of the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta's potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations

Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level （GMSL） change and the Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta （PRD） sea level change is calculated： an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m （uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m） increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5）, the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 （0.21 to 0.40） m under RCP2.6, 0.31 （0.22 to 0.42） m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 （0.25 to 0.46） m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 （0.36 to 0.88） m, 0.71 （0.47 to 1.02） m, and 1.0 （0.68 to 1.41） m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence （i.e., 0.20 m） and that obtained from intermonthly variability （i.e., 0.33 m）, the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level （i.e., 1.41 m）. Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57x103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.

Tows Matrix Analysis on Developing Urban Agriculture in the Pearl River Delta Area

Based on the introduction of the profile of Pearl River Delta area, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of developing urban agricultural in Pearl River Delta area are analyzed by using the SWOT analysis. The strengths are analyzed from three aspects, covering natural resources, geographic advantages and technological advantages; the weaknesses are analyzed from the terms of land resources, labor cost, industrial scale and quality of personnel involved; opportunities are analyzed from the aspects of potential clients, favorable policies and markets; the threats are analyzed from two aspects, including concept factor and income gap between urban and rural areas. on the basis of the above analyses, the countermeasures and suggestions on the development of urban agriculture in the Pearl River Delta area are put forward.

Distributional characteristics and sources of elements in soil from typical area of Pearl River Delta economic zone, Guangdong Province, China

Dongguan City, located in the Pearl River Delta economic zone of China, is famous for its rapid developing township-enterprises in the past 30 years. A total of 759 composite soil samples, including 606 surface soil samples and 153 deep soil samples, have been collected in the city. These samples have been analyzed for 13elements(Al, As, Cu, Cd, Co, Cr, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Si,and Zn) and other parameters(p H values and organic matter) to evaluate the influence of anthropic activities on the soil environmental quality and to identify the spatial distribution of heavy metals and their possible sources. The results indicate that the average concentrations of heavy metals in soil were significantly lower than the threshold of the second grade of the Soil Environment Quality Standard in China(GB15618-1995) and the soil environmental quality in this area is comparatively good. But in comparison with local soil geochemical baseline values, As,Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn have accumulated remarkably.Specifically, the average concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, and Hg in the small part samples of the west plain and central areas are higher than the national second-grade quality standard, indicating some level of contamination. Multivariate and geostatistical methods have been applied to differentiate the influences of natural processes and human activities on the concentration of heavy metals in surface soils in the study area. Cluster and factor analyses result in the grouping of Al, As, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, and Si into factor F1; Co, Mn, Pb, and Zn into F2; and Cd and Hg into F3.The spatial pattern of the three factors may be well demonstrated by geostatistical analysis. It is shown that the first factor could be considered as a natural source controlled by parent material. The second factor could be referred to as ‘‘industrial and traffic pollution sources' '. The source of the third factor is mainly controlled by long-term anthropic activities, including agricultural activities, fossil fuel consumption, and atmospheric deposition.

Legislation on protection of drinking water sources and local management practices in the Pearl River Delta region of China

The protection of drinking water sources is vital to urban development and public health.In this study,the current situation of the mandatory protection area for drinking water source in the Pearl River Delta region was investigated using a method combining Google Earth with the field survey.The gaps between management practices and legislation requirements were analyzed.Finally,several countermeasures for water resource protection were proposed as follows:to promote delineation in a more scientific way,to safeguard the sanctity of the law,to make better plan on water saving,and to encourage public participation in supervision and management.

Construction area expansion in relation to economic-demographic development and land resource in the Pearl River Delta of China

Since 1979, the Pearl River Delta （PRD） of China has experienced rapid socio- economic development along with a fast expansion of construction area. Affected by both natural and human factors, a complex interdependency is found among the regional changes in construction area, GDP and population. A quantitative analysis of the four phases of the regional land use data extracted from remote sensing images and socioeconomic statistics spanning 1979 to 2009 demonstrates that the proportion of construction area in the PRD increased from 0.5% in 1979 to 10.8% in 2009, accompanied with a rapid loss of agricultural land. An increase of one million residents was associated with an increase of GDP of ap- proximately 32 billion yuan before 2000 and approximately 162 billion yuan after 2000. Be- cause the expansion of construction area has approached the limits of land resource in some cities of the PRD, a power function is found more suitable than a linear one in describing the relationship between GDP and construction area. Consequently, the Logistic model is shown to provide more accurate predictions of population growth than the Malthus model, particu- larly in some cities where a very large proportion of land resource has been urbanized, such as Shenzhen and Dongguan.

Characteristics and Evolution Path of Metropolitan Area in Multi-Core and Strongly Connected Urban Agglomerations:Experience from the Pearl River Delta

Metropolitan areas under different regional contexts show different development characteristics and evolution paths.Urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta is characterized by having multiple cores and strong connection,in which cities used to be "geographically connected before interactive with each other." And during the functional interaction,three metropolitan areas emerged in different stages with different characteristics in the Pearl River Delta.By analyzing the urbanization process of the Pearl River Delta,it shows that the interaction among cities within the three metropolitan areas has obvious characteristics.In the early stage,it was featured by the industrial expansion benefiting from infrastructure integration.And then it was shifted to the co-construction and sharing of public services based on the demand of "people." Now it is in a new stage of spatial reconstruction driven by agglomeration of service industries and innovation forces.Finally,the lessons learned from the Pearl River Delta are summarized from the aspects of transportation,mechanism,shared value,relationship,and topography.

Effects of Land Use Changes Across Different Urbanization Periods on Summer Rainfall in the Pearl River Delta Core Area

The Pearl River Delta(PRD)is one of the three urban agglomerations in China that have experienced rapid development.For this study,a core area of the PRD was identified,comprising the highly urbanized areas of Guangzhou,Foshan,Zhongshan,Zhuhai,Shenzhen,and Dongguan Cities.The expansion of these urban areas was tracked across three time periods—the year population urbanization rate exceeded 70%(2000),18 years before(1982),and 18 years after(2018).This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to explore summer rainfall changes across different urbanization periods in the PRD core area.The results show that urban land expansion mainly occurred in the post urbanization period.Rainfall changes acros s different urbanization periods were roughly consistent with previously observed spatial and temporal changes accompanying urban expansion in the PRD core area.Extreme rainfall mainly increased in the post urbanization period,shifting rainstorm center towards the PRD core area.Further causal analysis revealed that land use changes affected rainfall by altering thermodynamics and water vapor transfer.The urban expansion changed the surface energy balance,resulting in increased surface heating and heat island effects.The heat island effects thickened the planetary boundary layer and increased vertical wind speeds,which initiated dry island effects,thereby causing more water vapor transportation to the atmosphere.Consequently,rainstorms and extreme rainfall events have become concentrated in urban areas.

粤港澳大湾区建设对区域市场一体化程度的影响研究

为探究区域战略变动对周边区域市场一体化程度的影响,文章以粤港澳大湾区建设准自然实验法替换了常见的时间序列检验,基于双重差分模型考察了粤港澳大湾区建设对所在珠三角地区市场一体化程度的影响。研究发现,粤港澳大湾区建设能显著促进珠三角地区的市场一体化发展。文章据此提出,应该进一步推动粤港澳大湾区战略的实施,同时要进一步加强区域间协作。

珠三角国家森林城市群生态安全格局变化与空间优化识别

识别生态安全格局(ESP)对于区域经济可持续发展和生态保护平衡具有重要意义。面向珠三角国家森林城市群规划建设,应用形态学空间格局分析(MSPA)、电路理论、空间设计网络分析(sDNA)等方法,通过构建珠三角森林城市群建设前后的生态廊道网络,识别了景观形态、拓扑连通性及其指示的生态格局时空演变,结合规划功能区的土地利用变化和网络连通特征,探讨了珠三角森林城市群生态安全格局空间优化的识别结果。研究结果表明:(1)2015、2020年生态景观形态变化,生态源地核心(core)类型面积和生态廊道长度占比明显增加,分别为14.97%、0.40%,生态斑块聚集与连通增加是当前生态格局变化的主要特征;(2)珠三角的东部、西部森林生态屏障和南部沿海生态防护带(两屏一带)的连通性潜力明显增加,高、中高、中低连通性的生态廊道占比分别增加2.65%、6.98%和8.25%,形成合理提升的生态网络连通结构。(3)集成生态源地重要性与生态廊道连通性、生态断裂点的优化目标,从生态点-线-面基质构建优先保护修复区识别准则,结果识别得到优先保护的重要生态源地面积为14656.06km^(2),优先修复的生态廊道有930.69km及246个断裂点,进一步为空间优化识别与安全格局提升探明路径。总体上,2020年珠三角森林城市群建设提升了“两屏一带”的生态安全格局,生态源地与网络连通性的增加揭示了城市群中心生态格局的提升和沿海防护带生态修复优化空间的识别结果,指示了加强城市群与沿海生态廊道建设的必要性,从工程修复视角为森林城市群生态安全格局识别与空间优化提供科学参考依据。

珠三角产业型地区全域土地综合整治路径探讨——以佛山市狮山镇为例

长期以来,以村级工业园为代表的“村域经济”造成珠三角地区受到土地效益低和空间质量低的双重桎梏,亟需通过土地整治唤醒城市活力。文章以广东省佛山市狮山镇为例,剖析了产业主导型地区全域土地综合整治的空间困境,构建整治逻辑框架、明晰工作路径,以产业、城镇、农业、生态四类空间聚合的“四集中”为主线,以“城镇空间分片融合、产业空间集聚提质、农业空间增量提质、生态空间织补成网”为空间支撑,空间治理、政策机制复合施策,探索形成“调查评估—目标制定—组织路径—整治举措—示范片区—配套政策”的实施路径,实现重构空间格局、再造产业集群、重塑城市形态、再修生态环境。

基于时序InSAR的珠江三角洲形变区自动识别与监测

合成孔径雷达干涉测量(InSAR)技术已被广泛应用于地表形变监测。然而当监测范围较广、地表形变区域较多时,目视解译形变区工作量大且易误判、漏判。基于此,本文提出了一种InSAR形变区自动识别算法,用于地表形变区域识别与监测。以地质灾害点较多的珠江三角洲为研究区域,首先利用InSAR技术获取该地区2015年6月至2020年11月的地表形变;然后利用所提算法自动圈定形变区域,共识别出630个疑似地质灾害隐患点;最后结合实地调查和历史光学影像等信息,对部分重点监测区域内形变的时空发育特征和产生原因等进行了分析。本文研究应用于珠三角地面沉降的识别和监测,极大地减少解译工作强度,提高解译精度及工作效率,为大范围InSAR地表形变监测及珠三角地区形变特征分析和地面沉降地质灾害风险防控提供技术支撑。

珠江三角洲河网区极端水位事件风险传递规律

为研究珠江三角洲河网区极端水位事件的风险传递规律,基于13个水位站点1957—2016年的月水位资料,利用pair-copula结构构建珠三角河网区水位的风险传递模型,分析不同情景下极端水位在空间上的风险传递机制及其时间变化规律。结果表明:在低降水量条件下,珠三角河网区低水位风险顺向(上游至下游)和逆向(下游至上游)传递的概率均显著增大;高降水量条件下夏季丰水期的高水位顺向传递风险更高,低降水量条件下冬季枯水期的低水位顺向和逆向传递风险均较高;受人类活动影响,在高降水量条件下,1987—2016年夏季丰水期的高水位顺向传递风险比1957—1986年显著增强;在低降水量条件下,1987—2016年冬季枯水期低水位的顺向和逆向传递风险比1957—1986年显著增强。

珠三角滨海地区地下水水质自动监测技术的适用条件和方法初探

针对珠三角滨海地区地下水含有高氯化物、高铁离子等的水质特征,通过开展多次自动仪器与实验室手工比对监测,验证了氨氮、耗氧量(CODMn法)、锰、氯化物等水质参数自动监测分析方法在地下水中的适用性。结果表明,使用蒸馏预处理+水杨酸分光光度法自动仪器监测该区域地下水中的氨氮,其监测结果与实验室手工监测结果有较好的一致性,潜水井相对误差为2.15%~22.7%,承压水井相对误差为2.82%~9.45%;使用高锰酸钾氧化-光度滴定法自动仪器监测该区域地下水潜水中的耗氧量,其监测结果与实验室手工监测结果一致性较好,相对误差为9.17%~12.9%;使用高碘酸盐法自动仪器监测该区域地下水中的锰,其监测结果与实验室手工监测结果有较好的一致性,潜水井相对误差为5.78%~23.2%,承压水井相对误差为8.94%~35.1%;使用离子选择性电极法自动仪器监测该区域地下水中的氯离子,其监测结果与实验室手工监测结果均有较好的一致性,潜水井相对误差为3.01%~29.4%,承压水井相对误差为0.61%~9.95%。该研究可为建立统一、规范的地下水水质自动监测技术体系提供经验和参考。

经济一体化对韶关市经济转型发展的实证研究

韶关市地处粤北欠发达地区,通过积极融入泛珠三角经济一体化来促进自身发展。本文利用韶关市相关数据,对重要经济指标及其增长率进行了统计分析,并对粤北和广东省进行了对比研究。结果表明,得益于经济一体化战略,韶关市的经济从绝对数来看取得了长足发展,但从增长率来看发展则相对滞后。这说明经济一体化对欠发达城市具有双重效应,也给政府在政策设计和协同方面带来更大的挑战。

2006～2012年珠三角地区空气污染变化特征及影响因素

利用粤港珠江三角洲区域空气监控网络2006~2012年监测结果,分析了珠三角地区SO2、NO2、O3和PM10浓度的年、月变化及空间分布特征,并对产生时空分布变化的原因进行了剖析.结果表明：7年来,珠三角地区SO2、NO2和PM10浓度呈下降趋势,降幅分别为61.7%、17.4%和24.3%,O3浓度呈上升趋势,增幅为12.5%,总体而言,珠三角地区空气质量呈好转趋势;湿季（4~9月）空气质量明显优于干季（10月至翌年3月）,各污染物浓度的月变化均呈双峰型,SO2、NO2和PM10峰值浓度出现在12月和3月,O3峰值浓度出现在10月和5月;SO2、NO2和PM10浓度高值区主要集中在中部的广佛地区,O3浓度在外围郊区呈现高值,各部分地区的污染物浓度变化趋势不一致,中部经济核心区一次污染物浓度下降趋势更为显著.珠三角地区空气质量的变化受多方面因素的影响,经济下行和政府治理是驱动一次污染逐年好转的主要因素,而政府对VOCs排放控制相对薄弱,VOCs排放与气候变化的共同作用可能是导致二次污染（尤其是O3污染）加剧的原因.

珠江三角洲霾天气的近地层输送条件研究

近年来,珠江三角洲地区气溶胶污染日趋严重,霾天气造成能见度恶化和空气质量下降。近地层输送条件即地面流场与大气污染物稀释扩散密切相关。利用2004—2005年广东省466个地面自动气象站资料、广州观象台常规气象资料、珠江三角洲大气成分站网器测能见度资料、珠江三角洲城市环境监测站网的PM10浓度资料等,使用矢量和分析方法,分析珠江三角洲近地层风及其对严重霾天气过程和清洁对照过程的影响。结果表明:2004年霾天气高发季节,东亚纬向环流比2005年同期显著,纬向环流不显著的年份,气流南北交换显著,冷空气跨越南岭、到达珠江三角洲的机会比较大,伴随冷空气的大风等天气有利于污染物扩散;纬向环流显著的年份,冷空气跨越南岭、到达珠江三角洲的机会比较小,污染物易于堆积。珠江三角洲霾天气具有区域性特征,旱季出现最多,雨季出现最少。严重霾天气过程出现在每年12月至次年4月,清洁对照过程出现在台风直接影响或冷空气活动频繁的季节。与2004年相比,2005年的静风频率较低,且旱季风速较大,不利于霾天气的形成。矢量和分析表明:区域霾天气过程与区域内静小风过程,即出现气流停滞区有密切联系,清洁对照过程与强平流输送有关。

珠江三角洲污灌区地下水重金属含量及其相互关系

为了解污灌区地下水重金属含量特征,采集地表水样5组、地下水样14组进行化学组分定量分析。结果表明:污灌区地下水8种重金属元素中,仅有Ni和As两种元素超标,超标率分别为14.3%和42.9%。8种重金属含量在污灌区地表水、工厂废水以及地下水中存在明显的对应关系。Ni、Zn、Se、Cd这4种元素间存在显著或极显著的正相关关系,Cu与Pb和Cd分别呈极显著和显著的正相关关系,Cr仅与Ni呈显著的正相关关系,As与其它7种元素的相关性均不明显。聚类分析结果显示8种重金属可分为4类:Pb和Cu一类,Se、Cd、Ni、Zn一类,Cr和As均单独一类。Pb和Cu与Fe的相似性最好,Se、Cd、Ni、Zn与Mg2+存在较好的相似性,Cr与HCO3-的相似性最好,As与SO24-存在一定的相似性。

珠江三角洲地区典型农村土壤重金属污染现状分析

珠江三角洲地区农村土壤重金属污染状况不容忽视,除化肥农药、畜禽养殖等污染源外,还有工业污染等其他污染源。本研究以该地区工业型和种植型两类典型农村为例,通过对农田和菜地两种耕地以及企业周边、养殖场周边和垃圾点周边三类污染场地土壤重金属污染现状进行监测与评价,深入分析重金属污染成因。结果表明,该地区工业型农村耕地以铜超标为主(超标率22.2%),种植型农村耕地以镉超标为主(超标率16.7%),其余重金属超标率低或不超标;耕地中农田的重金属污染程度重于菜地。工业型农村污染场地以铜超标为主(超标率33.3%),其次是镉和锌(超标率均为11.1%),其余重金属不超标;种植型农村污染场地以镉、镍超标为主(超标率均为26.1%),其次为铜和砷(超标率分别为17.4%和8.7%),其余重金属不超标。三类污染场地中,工业型农村土壤重金属超标情况相对最重的是垃圾点周边,而种植型农村土壤重金属超标程度相对最重的是养殖场周边。高度集约化的农业生产方式是造成珠三角农村耕地土壤重金属污染的主要原因,同时,众多的制造业"三废"排放加剧了土壤重金属累积。此外,畜禽养殖废弃物、生活垃圾的无序堆放也是造成农村土壤重金属污染的原因。

珠江三角洲污灌区土壤中重金属含量特征

通过现场采样及室内测试方法,分析了珠江三角洲污灌区土壤中9种重金属Cd、Cu、Zn、Pb、Mn、Ni、As、Cr、Se的含量分布特征。结果表明,污灌区土壤9种重金属的全量平均含量均已超出广东省土壤背景值,其中Cd的污染程度最重,Se的污染程度最轻;污灌区土壤以Cd元素的有效系数最高,Ni元素的有效系数最低。Zn、Pb、Cu以及Cd元素随采样深度的增加其全量逐渐减少,Cr、Ni、As以及Se元素随采样深度的增加其全量呈上下波动状态或几乎不变,而Mn元素则是随采样深度的增加其全量先略有减少而后骤升。Cu、Cd、Zn等3种元素全量与有效态含量以及这3种元素全量间均呈显著或极显著的正相关关系。

珠江三角洲城市地区MODIS气溶胶光学厚度产品的检验分析

根据2004年1—11月地面太阳光度计的气溶胶光学厚度的观测数据,对美国航空航天局(NASA)发布的中分辨率成像光谱仪气溶胶光学厚度产品(MODIS AOD C004)在珠江三角洲城市地区的准确性进行了检验,并分析了造成MODIS AOD误差的可能原因。分析结果表明:⑴MODIS AOD的误差在NASA的预期误差范围内,MODIS AOD可作为气候变化的研究和区域大气污染监测的有效手段。⑵与世界上其他地区的检验结果类似,MODIS AOD在珠江三角洲城市地区存在一定的系统性偏差:当AOD较小时,MODIS AOD值大多高估,而当AOD比较大时,MODIS AOD值偏低,这一系统性偏差大于全球平均偏差。其中广州和南海的偏差最为显著,东莞和番禺次之。⑶导致MODIS AOD在珠江三角洲城市地区出现较大系统性偏差的原因包括:珠江三角洲工业化和城市化的发展,使地表的植被覆盖率已大幅减少,MODIS AOD反演所采用的地表反照率估算值可能偏小;气溶胶模型中设定的单散射反照率值偏高,低估了珠江三角洲城市地区气溶胶的吸收性。