Spatiotemporal variability of permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Based on data from six meteorological stations in the permafrost regions, 60 boreholes for long-term monitoring of permafrost temperatures, and 710 hand-dug pits and shallow boreholes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP）, the spatiotemporal variability of permafrost degradation was closely examined in relation to the rates of changes in air, surface, and ground temperatures. The de- cadal averages and increases in the mean annual air temperatures （MAATs） from 1961-2010 were the largest and most persistent during the last century. MAATs rose by 1.3 ℃, with an average increase rate of 0.03 ℃/yr. The average of mean annual ground surface temperatures （MAGSTs） increased by 1.3 ℃ at an average rate of 0.03 ℃/yr. The rates of changes in ground temperatures were -0.01 to 0.07 ℃/yr. The rates of changes in the depths of the permafrost table were -1 to ＋10 cm/yr. The areal extent of permafrost on the QTP shrank from about 1.50× 10^6 km^2 in 1975 to about 1.26× 10^6 km^2 in 2006. About 60% of the shrinkage in area of permafrost occurred during the period from 1996 to 2006. Due to increasing air temperature since the late 1980s, warm （〉-1 ℃） permafrost has started to degrade, and the degradation has gradually expanded to the zones of transitory （-1 to -2 ℃） and cold （〈-2 ℃） permafrost. Permafrost on the southern and southeastem plateau degrades more markedly. It is projected that the degradation of permafrost is likely to accelerate, and substantial changes in the distributive features and thermal regimes of permafrost should be anticipated. However, regarding the relationships between degrading permafrost and the degradation of rangelands, it is still too early to draw reliable conclusions due to inadequate scientific criteria and evidence.

Characteristics of permafrost degradation in Northeast China and its ecological effects: A review

Latitudinal permafrost in Northern Northeast(NNE)China is located in the southern margin of the Eurasian continent,and is very sensitive to climatic and environmental change.Numerical simulations indicate that air temperature in the permafrost regions of Northeast China has been on the rise since the 1950s,and will keep rising in the 21st century,leading to extensive degradation of permafrost.Permafrost degradation in NNE China has its own characteristics,such as northward shifts in the shape of a"W"for the permafrost southern boundary(SLP),discontinuous permafrost degradation into islandlike frozen soil,and gradually disappearing island permafrost.Permafrost degradation leads to deterioration of the ecological environment in cold regions.As a result,the belt of larch forests dominated by Larix gmelinii has shifted northwards and wetland areas with symbiotic relationships with permafrost have decreased significantly.With rapid retreat and thinning of permafrost and vegetation change,the CO2 and CH4 flux increases with mean air temperature from continuous to sporadic permafrost areas as a result of activity of methanogen enhancement,positively feeding back to climate warming.This paper reviews the features of permafrost degradation,the effects of permafrost degradation on wetland and forest ecosystem structure and function,and greenhouse gas emissions on latitudinal permafrost in NNE China.We also put forward critical questions about the aforementioned effects,including:(1)establish long-term permafrost observation systems to evaluate the distribution of permafrost and SLP change,in order to study the feedback of permafrost to climate change;(2)carry out research about the effects of permafrost degradation on the wetland ecosystem and the response of Xing'an larch to global change,and predict ecosystem dynamics in permafrost degradation based on long-term field observation;(3)focus intensively on the dynamics of greenhouse gas flux in permafrost degradation of Northeast China and the feedback of greenhouse gas emissions to climate change;(4)quantitative studies on the permafrost carbon feedback and vegetation carbon feedback due to permafrost change to climate multi-impact and estimate the balance of C in permafrost regions in the future.

Linkages between soil microbial stability and carbon storage in the active layer under permafrost degradation

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)distributes the largest extent of high-altitude mountain permafrost in the world(Zou et al.,2017),which has different characteristics from high-latitude permafrost(Yang et al.,2010)and stores massive soil carbon.

Impacts of permafrost degradation on streamflow in the northern Himalayas

The Himalayan water tower provides crucial water resources for Asia.Permafrost degradation is deemed to exert important impacts on streamflow in the Himalayan rivers.Yet,the magnitudes of such impacts remain poorly quantified.Here,we established a robust hydrological model that incorporated active layer deepening and ground ice melt for the drainage basin of the largest river in the northern Himalayas-the Yarlung Zangbo River(YZR).We estimated that permafrost degradation led to~0.65 km^(3)/yr decrease in surface runoff and~0.35 km^(3)/yr increase in baseflow and ground ice melt contributed~0.25% to the annual streamflow in the YZR for the period 2001-2022.The“fill-and-spill”mechanism helps explain the seeming contradiction of observed increasing versus decreasing baseflow in different permafrost regions worldwide.We propose that the dilution of riverine dissolved organic carbon(DOC)concentrations by baseflow may lead to the riverine DOC hysteresis patterns.This study not only lays solid scientific basis for water resources management in the Himalayas,but also yields new insights into how to interpret measured river discharge and nutrient flux in permafrost regions over the globe.

Permafrost degradation along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway from 1995 to 2020

Permafrost degradation significantly affects engineering infrastructure,hydrologic processes,landscape and geomorphic processes,ecosystems and carbon cycling in cold regions.The permafrost degradation along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway(QTH)on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,China,introduces an adverse effect on the deformation of the highway subgrade.At present,observation of a long series of ground temperatures is lacking.From 1995 to 2020,a monitoring system of ground temperature in 10 natural sites along QTH was built and maintained.Ground temperatures at different depths were continuously observed semi-monthly.In this study,permafrost changes along QTH were quantitatively investigated based on these records.The main results showed that both the permafrost table depth(PTD)and ground temperature at different depths exhibited an increasing trend from 1995 to 2020 with widespread spatiotemporal differences.The higher the annual mean and range of PTD were,the higher the increase rate in PTD.The increase rates in PTDs in the warm permafrost regions were 6.18 cm per year larger than those in the cold ones.Overall,the increase rates in ground temperature decreased with the increase in depth at each site.At different depths,the smaller the mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)was,the larger the increase rate in the permafrost temperatures.The larger the range of ground temperatures was,the bigger the increase rate in the permafrost temperatures.At a depth of 6.0 m,the increase rate in the ground temperature in cold permafrost regions was twice that in warm permafrost regions.Information on the magnitudes and differences in permafrost degradation along QTH is necessary for the design of effective adaption strategies for engineering construction and environment protection in permafrost regions under climatic warming.

Impacts of climate-induced permafrost degradation on vegetation:A review

Under a warming climate,degrading permafrost profoundly and extensively affects arctic and alpine ecology.However,most existing relevant studies are more focused on the hydrothermal impacts of vegetation on the underlying permafrost,or symbiosis between vegetation and permafrost,only very few on ecological impacts of permafrost degradation.Additionally,there are much more pertinent investigations in arctic and boreal regions than those in alpine and high-plateau regions at mid-and low latitudes.This study emphasizes on the impact mechanisms of permafrost degradation on vegetation both at high and mid-to low latitudes,addressing vegetation succession trajectories and associated changes in soil hydrology and soil nutrient above degrading permafrost.Permafrost degradation influences vegetation by altering soil hydrology,soil biogeochemical processes and microbial communities,which further improve soil nutrient availability.Furthermore,under a warming climate,vegetation may take two successional trajectories,towards a wetter or drier ecosystem within a certain time period,but to a drier ecosystem in the end upon the thaw of permafrost in case of permeable soils and good drainage.Thus,with rapidly developing remote-sensing and other space-and ground-based and air-borne observational networks and numerical predictive models,the impacting mechanisms of permafrost degradation on vegetation should be timely and better monitored,evaluated and modeled at desired spatiotemporal scales and resolutions by terrestrial or integrated ecosystem models.

Impacts of degrading permafrost on streamflow in the source area of Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Many observations in and model simulations for northern basins have confirmed an increased streamflow from degrading permafrost,while the streamflow has declined in the source area of the Yellow River(SAYR,above the Tanag hydrological station)on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,West China.How and to what extent does the degrading permafrost change the flow in the SAYR?According to seasonal regimes of hydrological processes,the SAYR is divided intofour sub-basins with varied permafrost extents to detect impacts of permafrost degradation on the Yellow River streamflow.Results show that permafrost degradation may have released appreciable meltwater for recharging groundwater.The potential release rate of ground-ice melt-water in the Sub-basin 1(the headwater area of the Yellow River(HAYR),above the Huangheyan hydrological station)is the highest(5.6 mm per year),contributing to 14.4%of the annual Yellow River streamflow at Huangheyan.Seasonal/intra-and annual shifts of streamflow,a possible signal for the marked alteration of hydrological processes by permafrost degradation,is observed in the HAYR,but the shifts are minor in other sub-basins in the SAYR.Improved hydraulic connectivity is expected to occur during and after certain degrees of permafrost degradation.Direct impacts of permafrost degradation on the annual Yellow River streamflow in the SAYR at Tanag,i.e.,from the meltwater of ground-ice,is estimated at 4.9%that of the annual Yellow River discharge at Tanag,yet with a high uncertainty,due to neglecting of the improved hydraulic connections from permafrost degradation and the flow generation conditions for the ground-ice meltwater.Enhanced evapotranspiration,substantial weakening of the Southwest China Autumn Rain,and anthropogenic disturbances may largely account for the declined streamflow in the SAYR.

Research on the evolution law of permafrost under the influence of urbanization based on remote sensing technology

The permafrost of Mohe County and its suburbs in the Daxing′an Mountains has been influenced by the urbanization.Remote sensing,GIS technology and numerical simulation was used to study the temperature variations of permafrost with the changes in surface vegetation that cover Mohe County and suburban areas,and the law of permafrost degradation on the study area was analyzed.The research results show that the urban area of the study area increased 114.42%from 2000 to 2016,and the urbanization process is continuing to accelerate.The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index map of 2017 in Mohe County and its suburbs was studied and the maximum proportion of vegetation coverage was different in the four seasons.The numerical calculation model results show that the permafrost temperature change in the study area cyclically fluctuates in a cosine form.The annual variation curve of permafrost temperature gradually decreased and its accompanying phase lag increased with depth.The annual temperature change value with the different depths of the town was greater than the natural ground.The maximum permafrost thawing depths of the town and natural ground were 4.2 m and 2.82 m in 50 a,and the degradation rates of the two permafrost are,respectively,0.88 cm/a and 0.46 cm/a.These results show that urbanization has accelerated the degradation of permafrost.

Evolution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the Late Quaternary

Due to the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP）, the cryosphere gradually developed on the higher mountain summits after the Neocene, becoming widespread during the Late Quaternary. During this time, permafrost on the QTP experienced repeated expansion and degradation. Based on the remains and cross-correlation with other proxy records such as those from glacial landforms, ice-core and paleogeography, the evolution and changes of permafrost and environmental changes on the QTP during the past 150,000 years were deduced and are presented in this paper.At least four obvious cycles of the extensive and intensive development, expansion and decay of permafrost occurred during the periods of 150-130, 80-50, 30-14 and after 10.8 ka B.P.. Ehiring the Holocene, fluctuating climatic environ-ments affected the permafrost on the QTP, and the peripheral mountains experienced six periods of discernible permafrost changes： （1） Stable development of permafrost in the early Holocene （10.8 to 8.5-7.0 ka B.P.）; （2） Intensive permafrost degradation during the Holocene Megathermal Period （HMP, from 8.5-7.0 to 4.0-3.0 ka B.P.）; （3） Permafrost expansion during the early Neoglacial period （ca. 4,000-3,000 to 1,000 a B.P.）; （4） Relative degradation during the Medieval Warm Period （MWP,from 1,000 to 500 a B.R）; （5） Expansion of permafrost during the Little Ice Age （LIA,from 500 to 10.a B.P.）; （6） Observed and predicted degradation of permafrost during the 20th and 21st century. Each period differed greatly in paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, and permafrost distribution, thickness, areal extent, and ground temperatures, as well as in the development of periglacial phenomena. Statistically, closer dating of the onset permafrost formation, more identi-fication of permafrost remains with richer proxy information about paleoenvironment, and more dating information enable higher resolution for paleo-permafrost reconstruction. Based on the scenarios of persistent climate warming of 2 2 -2 .6 °C in the next 50 years, and in combination of the monitored trends of climate and permafrost changes, and model predictions suggest an accelerated regional degradation of plateau pemafrost. Therefore,during the first half of the 21st century, profound changes in the stability of alpine ecosystems and hydro（geo）logical environments in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers may occur. The foundation stability of key engineering infrastructures and sustainable eco-nomic development in cold regions on the QTP may be affected.

Impact of a retrogressive thaw slump on surrounding vegetation communities in the Fenghuoshan mountains,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Under global warming,permafrost around the world is experiencing degradation which is especially so on the Third Pole,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),China.Retrogressive thaw slump(RTS)is one of the thermokarst features caused by rapid degradation of ice rich permafrost,which transforms landforms and threatens infrastructures,and even affects the terrestrial carbon cycle.In this work,vegetation communities surrounding a RTS in the Fenghuoshan Mountains of the interior portion of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have been investigated to examine the impact from RTS.This investigation indicates that the occurrence of RTS influences the vegetation community by altering their habitats,especially the soil water content,which forces the vegetation community to evolve in order to adapt to the alterations.In the interior part of RTS where it has been disturbed tremendously,alterations have produced a wider niche and richer plant species.This favors species of a wet environment in a habitat where it was a relatively dry environment of alpine steppe prior to the occurrence of RTS.This study adds to limited observations regarding the impact of RTS to vegetation community on the QTP and helps us to reach a broader understanding of the effects of permafrost degradation as well as global warming.

High-resolution assessment of retrogressive thaw slump susceptibility in the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor

Under the rapidly warming climate in the Arctic and high mountain areas,permafrost is thawing,leading to various hazards at a global scale.One common permafrost hazard termed retrogressive thaw slump(RTS)occurs extensively in ice-rich permafrost areas.Understanding the spatial and temporal distributive features of RTSs in a changing climate is crucial to assessing the damage to infrastructure and decision-making.To this end,we used a machine learning-based model to investigate the environmental factors that could lead to RTS occurrence and create a susceptibility map for RTS along the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor(QTEC)at a local scale.The results indicate that extreme summer climate events(e.g.,maximum air temperature and rainfall)contributes the most to the RTS occurrence over the flat areas with fine-grained soils.The model predicts that 13%(ca.22,948 km^(2))of the QTEC falls into high to very high susceptibility categories under the current climate over the permafrost areas with mean annual ground temperature at 10 m depth ranging from-3 to-1℃.This study provides insights into the impacts of permafrost thaw on the stability of landscape,carbon stock,and infrastructure,and the results are of value for engineering planning and maintenance.

Porosity of crushed rock layer and its impact on thermal regime of Qinghai-Tibet Railway embankment

It has been proven that crushed rock layers used in roadbed construction in permafrost regions have a cooling effect. The main reason is the existence of large porosity of the rock layers. However, due to the strong winds, cold and high radiation conditions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP), both wind-blown sand and/or weathered rock debris blockage might reduce the porosity of the rock layers, resulting in weakening the cooling effect of the crushed rock layer(CRL) in the crushed rock embankment(CRE) of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway(QTR) in the permafrost regions. Such a process might warm the underlying permafrost, and further lead to potential threat to the QTR's integrity and stability. The different porosities corresponding to the different equivalent rock diameters were measured in the laboratory using water saturation method, and an empirical exponential equation between porosity and equivalent rock diameter was proposed based on the measured experimental data and an important finding is observed in our and other experiments that the larger size crushed rock tends to lead to the larger porosity when arbitrarily packing. Numerical tests were carried out to study impacts of porosity on permafrost degradation and differential thaw depths between the sunny and shady shoulders. The results show that the decrease in porosity due to wind-blown sand or weathered rock debris clogging can worsen the permafrost degradation and lead to the asymmetric thermal regime. In the traditional embankment(without the CRL within it), the largest differential thaw depth can reach up to 3.1 m. The optimized porosity appears in a range from 34% to 42% corresponding to equivalent rock diameter from 10 to 20.5 cm. The CRE with the optimized porosities can make underlying permafrost stable and 0 ℃ isotherms symmetric in the coming 50 years, even under the condition that the climate warming can lead to permafrost degradation under the CRE and the traditional embankment. Some practical implications were proposed to benefit the future design, construction and maintenance of CRE in permafrost regions.

Evolution of the freeze-thaw cycles in the source region of the Yellow River under the influence of climate change and its hydrological effects

As an important water source and ecological barrier in the Yellow River Basin,the source region of the Yellow River(above the Huangheyan Hydrologic Station)presents a remarkable permafrost degradation trend due to climate change.Therefore,scientific understanding the effects of permafrost degradation on runoff variations is of great significance for the water resource and ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin.In this paper,we studied the mechanism and extent of the effect of degrading permafrost on surface flow in the source region of the Yellow River based on the monitoring data of temperature and moisture content of permafrost in 2013–2019 and the runoff data in 1960–2019.The following results have been found.From 2013 to 2019,the geotemperature of the monitoring sections at depths of 0–2.4 m increased by 0.16°C/a on average.With an increase in the thawing depth of the permafrost,the underground water storage space also increased,and the depth of water level above the frozen layer at the monitoring points decreased from above 1.2 m to 1.2–2 m.64.7%of the average multiyear groundwater was recharged by runoff,in which meltwater from the permafrost accounted for 10.3%.Compared to 1960-1965,the runoff depth in the surface thawing period(from May to October)and the freezing period(from November to April)decreased by 1.5 mm and 1.2 mm,respectively during 1992–1997,accounting for 4.2%and 3.4%of the average annual runoff depth,respectively.Most specifically,the decrease in the runoff depth was primarily reflected in the decreased runoff from August to December.The permafrost degradation affects the runoff within a year by changing the runoff generation,concentration characteristics and the melt water quantity from permafrost,decreasing the runoff at the later stage of the permafrost thawing.However,the permafrost degradation has limited impacts on annual runoff and does not dominate the runoff changes in the source region of the Yellow River in the longterm.

Cold-region environments along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline and their management

The cold-region eco-environments along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline (CRCOP) in northern Northeast China are in disequilibrium due to the combined influences of pronounced climate warming and intensive anthropogenic activities.This is evidenced by the sharp areal reduction and northward shifting of the boreal forests,shrinking of wetlands,enhancing of soil erosion,accelerating degradation of permafrost and deteriorating of cold-region eco-environments.The degradation of permafrost plays an important role as an internal drive in the eco-environmental changes.Many components of the cold-region eco-environments,including frozen ground,forests,wetlands and peatlands,forest fires and 'heating island effect' of rapid urbanization,are interdependent,interactive,and integrated in the boreal ecosystems.The construction and long-term operation of the CRCOP system will inevitably disturb the cold-region environments along the pipeline.Therefore,a mandatory and carefully-elaborated environ-mental impact statement is indispensable for the proper mitigation of the ensued adverse impacts.Proper management,effective protection and practical rehabilitation of the damaged cold-region environments are a daunting,costly and long-term commitment.The recommended measures for protection and restoration of permafrost eco-environments along the pipeline route include adequate investigation,assessment and monitoring of permafrost and cold-region environments,compliance of pipeline construction and operation codes for environmental management,proper and timely re-vegetation,returning the cultivated lands to forests and grasslands,and effective mitigation of forest fire hazards.

Stabilizing subgrades of transport structures by injecting solidifying solutions in cold regions

Transport structures built throughout the period from 1960 to 1980 in permafrost regions based on the principle of permafrost preservation are subject to deformations.In many cases,the reason is a gradual change in temperature and their subgrade condition within the active zone due to the structures'technogenic impact.Design solutions for the fifty-year-old structures fail to ensure in all cases their reliable operation at the present time.The greatest danger to the reliable operation of railway lines in cold regions is uneven deformations of bridges,which are barrier places.Therefore,the solution to this problem is urgent especially due to the necessity of increase carrying capacity.The purpose of this study is to increase reliability of bridge operation in cold regions through strengthening the subgrade by reinforcement with injection of solidifying solutions.The problem of uneven deformations due to permafrost degradation is considered using the example of a railway bridge located in the northern line of the Krasnoyarsk railway.Deformations of the bridge abutments began immediately after the construction was completed and the bridge was open for traffic-since 1977.Permafrost degradation was developing more actively straight under the abutments due to higher thermal conductivity of the piles concrete.Notably,thawing intensity of frozen soils under the bridge abutments is uneven due to its orientation to the cardinal points.The analysis of archive materials and results of the geodetic survey made it possible to systematize the features of augmenting deformations of each abutment over time.The engineering-geological survey with drilling wells near the abutments ensured determination of soil characteristics,both in the frozen and thawed states.Thermometric wells were arranged to measure temperatures.The analysis and systematization of the data obtained allowed us to develop geotechnical models for each abutment of the bridge.The peculiarity of these models is allowance for changes in the strength and deformation characteristics of the soil calculated layers depending on changes in temperature and the soil condition.Thus,different calculated geological elements with the corresponding strength and deformation characteristics were identified in the soil layers of the same origin.The analysis of the systematized geodetic data allowed us to confirm adequacy of the developed geotechnical models.Studies carried out using geotechnical models made it possible to predict improvement of physical and mechanical characteristics of the subgrade to prevent further growth deformations of the bridge abutments.The method of reinforcement by injection is proposed.Injecting a solution under pressure leads to strengthening of weakened thawed soils and improving their physical and mechanical properties.This research theoretically substantiates and develops the geotechnical models of the reinforced pier footing of bridge abutments by injection of solidifying solutions.The models take into account the reinforcement parameters and elements for the case in question.The influence of reinforcement on the change in physical and mechanical properties of the soil mass is determined.

Changes in hydrological processes in the headwater area of Yellow River,China during 1956-2019 under the influences of climate change,permafrost thaw and dam

Discharge characteristics are crucial for detecting changes in hydrological processes.Recently,the river hydrology)in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River(HAYR)has exhibited erratic regimes(e.g.,monotonously declining/low/high hydrograph,even with normal precipitation)under the effects of climate change,permafrost thaw and changes in dam operation.This study integrates hydroclimatic variables(air temperature,precipitation,and potential evapotranspiration)with anthropogenic dam operation and permafrost degradation impact data to systematically examine the mechanisms of these hydrological process changes during 1956–2019.The results show the following:1)compared with the pre-dammed gauged flow,dam construction(January 1998–January 2000)and removal of dam(September 2018–August 2019)induced monotonously low(−17.2 m^(3) s^(−1);−61%)and high(+54.6 m^(3) s^(−1);+138%)hydrographs,respectively;2)hydroclimatic variables mainly controlled the summer–autumn hydrological processes in the HAYR;3)the monotonous decline of the hydrograph of Yellow River in the HAYR in some hydrological years(e.g.,1977,1979,1990 and 1995)was closely related with unusually high atmospheric demands of evaporation and low-intense rainfall during summer–autumn seasons;and 4)the lengthening of subsurface hydrological pathways and residence time,permafrost degradation reduced the recession coefficient(−0.002 per year)of winter flow and altered the hydrological regimes of seasonal rivers,which resulted in flattened hydrographs that reduced and delayed the peak flow(of 0.05 mm per year and 1.65 d per year,respectively)as well as boosted the winter baseflow(0.01 mm per year).This study can provide updated and systematic understanding of changing hydrological processes in typical alpine catchments on northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,China under a warming climate.

Climate warming is likely to weaken the performance of two-phase closed thermosyphon on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Over the years,numerous geotechnical approaches have been implemented to mitigate the adverse effects of climate warming on various infrastructures in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),such as the Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Railway,and achieved the expected engineering outcomes.However,little attention has been given to whether the performance of these geotechnical approaches has changed during the ongoing process of climate warming.To investigate the performance variation of one of these geotechnical approaches,which is two-phase closed thermosyphon(TPCT),during sustained climate warming,we conducted a statistical analysis of soil temperature monitoring data in 2003-2020 from eight regular embankments and six TPCT embankments in our permafrost monitoring network.The results indicate that TPCT undeniably has a cooling effect on the permafrost beneath embankments,even rapidly eliminated previously formed taliks beneath embankment.However,further analysis reveals that the performance of TPCT has been weakening during sustained climate warming,which has confirmed by the re-forming of the taliks beneath embankment where they had been previously eliminated.Based on the current understanding,we attributed the weakening of thermosyphon performance to a significant reduction in the air temperature freezing index caused by ongoing climate warming.Through this study,we aimed to draw attention to the evolving performance of geotechnical approaches in permafrost regions amid climate warming,prompting necessary engineering innovations to address this situation and ensure the sustainable development of the permafrost region on the QTP.

Linkage between permafrost distribution and river runoff changes across the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau

River runoff in the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau(TP) change significantly in recent decades. However, the mechanisms of the physical processes of permafrost river runoff change remain uncertain across large scale. This study investigated the mainstreams and tributaries of main Arctic and TP rivers dominated by permafrost and assessed the linkage between hydrological regime change and permafrost. The results show that the effects of permafrost on river runoff are highly dependent on the permafrost coverage of a watershed. For the past decades, the majority of the Arctic and TP basins showed increased discharge, while all of the studied basins showed increased baseflow, with faster increasing speed than total discharge.Both total discharge and baseflow annual change rate(ΔQ and ΔBF) increased with permafrost coverage, indicating the increments of streamflow are enhanced with high permafrost coverage. Meanwhile, the annual change of precipitation showed weak connection with total discharge and baseflow change. The high permafrost coverage basins showed high annual maximum/minimum discharge ratio(Qmax/Qmin), while the Qmax/Qminchanged slightly in low permafrost cover basins. Our results highlight the importance of permafrost coverage on streamflow regime change for permafrost basins across the northern hemisphere. Due to these linkage between permafrost extent and runoff regime change and the increasing changes of permafrost, more attention should be paid to the change of hydrological processes in permafrost-underlain basins.

Permafrost change in Northeast China in the 1950s-2010s

Permafrost in Northeast China is highly sensitive to climate warming.Permafrost degradation significantly affects forest and vegetation ecosystems,as well as the safety of engineering projects and other man-made infrastructures.However,the permafrost change in the region is still unclear.This study uses metrological data from 258 weather stations,alongside reanalysis data,and other environmental data to investigate permafrost degradation and its related environmental impacts in Northeast China from the 1950s to 2010s.Results show that the total permafrost area decreased from 4.8×10^(5)to 3.1×10^(5)km^(2)from the 1950s to the 2010s.The southern limit of permafrost moved 0.1-1.1°northward,and its average elevation rose 160.5 m.During the study period,the degradation of predominantly continuous permafrost,and discontinuous and island permafrost was more pronounced than that of sparsely island permafrost.The south boundary of those three permafrost zones northward by 0-3.4°,0-5.5°and 0.4-1.1°,the average altitude raised by 339.2 m,208.3 m,67.1 m.The permafrost degradation shows the elevation and latitude zonality.Permafrost degradation is mainly caused by the rising of surface temperatures and the impacts of other environmental factors.The snowfall warming the ground of 1.1-10.2℃in cold seasons and rainfall cooling on surface conditions in warm seasons,those may result in temporal and spatial differences in permafrost degradation.However,there are lack of researches in the impact of environment factors on soil temperatures,moisture and permafrost degradation.

Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau at 1 km^(2) scale

The degradation of near-surface permafrost under ongoing climate change on the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau (QTP) is of growing concern due to its impacts on geomorphological and ecological processes, as well as human activities. There is an increased need for an in-depth understanding of the evolution of permafrost temperature (Ttop) and active-layer thickness (ALT) at a fine scale on the QTP under climate change. This study evaluated the permafrost thermal development over the QTP for the period 1980–2100 at a 1 km^(2) scale using a physically analytical model accounting for both climatic and local environmental factors based on multi-source data. The model results were validated against thermal borehole measurements and baseline maps. The modeled current (2001–2018) permafrost area (Ttop ≤ 0 ℃) covers 1.42 × 10^(6) km^(2) (ca. 56.1% of the QTP land area), 10.1% of which thawed over the historical period 1981–2000. To assess how the ground thermal regime could develop in the future, we utilized the multi-model ensemble mean of downscaled outputs from eight climate models under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, 245, and 585) in CMIP6 to force the permafrost model. Model results suggest that the current (2001–2018) permafrost extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future period (2021–2100), as indicated by consistent Ttop warming and ALT increasing due to climate changing. About 26.9%, 59.9%, 80.1% of the current permafrost is likely to disappear by the end of the 21st century under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The simulation results may further provide new opportunities to assess the future impacts of climate warming on environments and engineering development over the QTP.