Characterization of Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Prevalence in Humans and Poultry in Huai′an,China：Molecular Epidemiology,Phylogenetic,and Dynamics Analyses

Objective To trace the source of human H7N9 cases in Huai＇an and elucidate the genetic characterization of Huai＇an strains associated with both humans and birds in live poultry market.Methods An enhanced surveillance was implemented when the first human H7N9 case was confirmed in Huai＇an.Clinical specimens,cloacal swabs,and fecal samples were collected and screened by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction（RT-PCR） for H7N9 virus.The positive samples were subjected to further RT-PCR and genome sequencing.The phylodynamic patterns of H7N9 virus within and separated from Huai＇an and evolutionary dynamics of the virus were analyzed.Results Six patients with H7N9 infection were previously exposed to live poultry market and presented symptoms such as fever（〉38.0 °C） and headaches.Results of this study support the hypothesis that live poultry markets were the source of human H7N9 exposure.Phylogenetic analysis revealed that all novel H7N9 viruses,including Huai＇an strains,could be classified into two distinct clades,A and B.Additionally,the diversified H7N9 virus circulated in live poultry markets in Huai＇an.Interestingly,the common ancestors of the Huai＇an H7N9 virus existed in January 2012.The mean nucleotide substitution rates for each gene segment of the H7N9 virus were（3.09-7.26）×10-3 substitutions/site per year（95% HPD：1.72×10-3 to 1.16×10-2）.Conclusion Overall,the source of exposure of human H7N9 cases in Huai＇an was live poultry market,and our study highlights the presence of divergent genetic lineage of H7N9 virus in both humans and poultry specimens in Huai＇an.

Comparing the transmission potential from sequence and surveillance data of 2009 North American influenza pandemic waves

Technological advancements in phylodynamic modeling coupled with the accessibility of real-time pathogen genetic data are increasingly important for understanding the infectious disease transmission dynamics.In this study,we compare the transmission potentials of North American influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 derived from sequence data to that derived from surveillance data.The impact of the choice of tree-priors,informative epidemiological priors,and evolutionary parameters on the transmission potential estimation is evaluated.North American Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutinin(HA)gene sequences are analyzed using the coalescent and birth-death tree prior models to estimate the basic reproduction number(R_(0)).Epidemiological priors gathered from published literature are used to simulate the birth-death skyline models.Path-sampling marginal likelihood estimation is conducted to assess model fit.A bibliographic search to gather surveillancebased R_(0)values were consistently lower(mean≤1.2)when estimated by coalescent models than by the birth-death models with informative priors on the duration of infectiousness(mean≥1.3 to≤2.88 days).The user-defined informative priors for use in the birth-death model shift the directionality of epidemiological and evolutionary parameters compared to non-informative estimates.While there was no certain impact of clock rate and tree height on the R_(0)estimation,an opposite relationship was observed between coalescent and birth-death tree priors.There was no significant difference(p=0.46)between the birth-death model and surveillance R0 estimates.This study concludes that treeprior methodological differences may have a substantial impact on the transmission potential estimation as well as the evolutionary parameters.The study also reports a consensus between the sequence-based R_(0)estimation and surveillanceased R_(0)stimates.Altogether,these outcomes shed light on the potential role of phylodynamic modeling to augment existing surveillance and epidemiological activities to better assess and respond to emerging infectious diseases.