Sudden oak death(SOD)is one of the most rapid and destructive forest pathogens,which has caused the death of many host plants in Europe and America.There are currently no cases in China where there are more host plant...Sudden oak death(SOD)is one of the most rapid and destructive forest pathogens,which has caused the death of many host plants in Europe and America.There are currently no cases in China where there are more host plants and a more suitable climate for this pathogen to survive.Therefore,it is vital to discern the potential suitable habitat,quantify the risk levels,and monitor the potential high-risk areas.In this study,we modelled the potential invasion range and risk level of this pathogen at present and in future scenarios in China,using the least correlated components of all the environmental factors based on the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production niche model and GIS analysis.The results indicate that most areas in China are free from a potential SOD risk,and the majority of potential occurrence areas are concentrated in Southern China(Yunnan,Sichuan,Guizhou,Chongqing,Hunan,Fujian).The area of high and extremely high risk in 2050(RCP26,RCP45,RCP60,and RCP85)is larger than that at present.The most susceptible area is Yunnan province with 80%of the area prone to SOD at extremely high risk in present and future scenarios.The results will be important for monitoring potential high-risk areas in the currently uninfected parts of China.展开更多
【目的】栎树猝死病是一种为害林木和观赏植物的毁灭性病害,发病迅速,短期内即可造成寄主植物大量死亡,寄主范围非常广泛,主要为害阔叶树树种。对其在我国的适生区范围进行预测,并系统评估其入侵风险,有助于更好地制定针对性的防治及检...【目的】栎树猝死病是一种为害林木和观赏植物的毁灭性病害,发病迅速,短期内即可造成寄主植物大量死亡,寄主范围非常广泛,主要为害阔叶树树种。对其在我国的适生区范围进行预测,并系统评估其入侵风险,有助于更好地制定针对性的防治及检疫措施。【方法】采用MaxEnt生态位模型,以栎树猝死病菌现有分布点的环境变量为基础运算预测模型,结合地理信息系统ArcGIS绘制其在中国的适生预测图;并以南京林业大学有害生物入侵预防与控制重点实验室建立的多指标综合评价体系为标准,从5个准则层下设18个指标层因子,对栎树猝死病菌在我国的入侵风险进行了定性和定量的分析。【结果】MaxEnt模型测试遗漏率与预测遗漏率基本吻合,ROC(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线的AUC值(area under curver,AUC)为0.974,标准差为0.008,明显高于随机分布模型,说明该模型对栎树猝死病菌在我国的适生区预测结果可信度较高,可作为后续评估依据。栎树猝死病菌在中国的适生范围在101.9°~122.9°E,18.9°~38.0°N,主要位于我国秦岭淮河以南的南方地区,集中在长江中下游平原和武夷山脉、南岭以南的沿海地区,约占中国行政区划面积的19.6%。栎树猝死病菌在中国的入侵风险指标值R为2.64,属于极高风险的有害生物。【结论】模型预测结果的可信度较高,鉴于栎树猝死病菌在我国暂无分布记录,且在多指标评价体系中被归为极高风险等级,建议在进境检疫中对其可能寄主植物实施严格检疫及2年以上的隔离试种,防止其进入中国。展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41601368)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFB0501505)the Instrument Development Project of the State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science(No.Y7Y01100KZ)
文摘Sudden oak death(SOD)is one of the most rapid and destructive forest pathogens,which has caused the death of many host plants in Europe and America.There are currently no cases in China where there are more host plants and a more suitable climate for this pathogen to survive.Therefore,it is vital to discern the potential suitable habitat,quantify the risk levels,and monitor the potential high-risk areas.In this study,we modelled the potential invasion range and risk level of this pathogen at present and in future scenarios in China,using the least correlated components of all the environmental factors based on the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production niche model and GIS analysis.The results indicate that most areas in China are free from a potential SOD risk,and the majority of potential occurrence areas are concentrated in Southern China(Yunnan,Sichuan,Guizhou,Chongqing,Hunan,Fujian).The area of high and extremely high risk in 2050(RCP26,RCP45,RCP60,and RCP85)is larger than that at present.The most susceptible area is Yunnan province with 80%of the area prone to SOD at extremely high risk in present and future scenarios.The results will be important for monitoring potential high-risk areas in the currently uninfected parts of China.
文摘【目的】栎树猝死病是一种为害林木和观赏植物的毁灭性病害,发病迅速,短期内即可造成寄主植物大量死亡,寄主范围非常广泛,主要为害阔叶树树种。对其在我国的适生区范围进行预测,并系统评估其入侵风险,有助于更好地制定针对性的防治及检疫措施。【方法】采用MaxEnt生态位模型,以栎树猝死病菌现有分布点的环境变量为基础运算预测模型,结合地理信息系统ArcGIS绘制其在中国的适生预测图;并以南京林业大学有害生物入侵预防与控制重点实验室建立的多指标综合评价体系为标准,从5个准则层下设18个指标层因子,对栎树猝死病菌在我国的入侵风险进行了定性和定量的分析。【结果】MaxEnt模型测试遗漏率与预测遗漏率基本吻合,ROC(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线的AUC值(area under curver,AUC)为0.974,标准差为0.008,明显高于随机分布模型,说明该模型对栎树猝死病菌在我国的适生区预测结果可信度较高,可作为后续评估依据。栎树猝死病菌在中国的适生范围在101.9°~122.9°E,18.9°~38.0°N,主要位于我国秦岭淮河以南的南方地区,集中在长江中下游平原和武夷山脉、南岭以南的沿海地区,约占中国行政区划面积的19.6%。栎树猝死病菌在中国的入侵风险指标值R为2.64,属于极高风险的有害生物。【结论】模型预测结果的可信度较高,鉴于栎树猝死病菌在我国暂无分布记录,且在多指标评价体系中被归为极高风险等级,建议在进境检疫中对其可能寄主植物实施严格检疫及2年以上的隔离试种,防止其进入中国。
