Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor Study 2010: Its Policy Implications for China

Results of the Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor Study 2010 （GBD 2010） were released on December 13, 2012 in London, a series of papers concerning the project have been published in the Lancet[1]. Research findings of the project have been reported in the United States, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, China[2] and Australia, and widely applied across the world. In addition, the GBD 2010 will see more countries report their project research findings and implement these findings in the near future. The GBD 2010 provides researchers, administrators and policymakers with new and critical sources for their research, teaching and policymaking.

Forecasting of China's natural gas production and its policy implications

With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.

Role of Breastfeeding in Promoting Maternal &Child Health and Policy Implications in New Zealand

Worldwide researches over infant’s health have generally focused and aimed on understanding the complex factors (both positive and negative) affecting the infant’s health which further had ultimately helped them to frame policies nationally as well as internationally. Out of these factors, breastfeeding is one of the vital concerns for research related to infant mortality and morbidity. The World Health Organization recommends that infants should be exclusively breastfed until first six months and receive nutritionally adequate and safe complementary foods thereafter while breastfeeding continues for up to two years of age or beyond. In New Zealand (NZ), only 12% of 6 months old children were exclusively breastfed in 2006. The Ministry of Health plays a leading role for the protection, promotion and supporting breastfeeding in NZ. There are a number of areas/implications that NZ need to focus at such as providing antenatal and postpartum education, training of health professionals, community and workplace support, policy frameworks, breast-feeding statistics and intersectoral approach. These measures mainly focus at the initiation but less has been done to continue and support breastfeeding in NZ. In order to achieve this, all of these areas should be given prime and equal consideration. Hence, there is a strong need to develop strategies that maintain and promote breastfeeding at 6 months or beyond in NZ taking into considerations of various barriers and enabling factors.

Farmland Marginalization and Policy Implications in Mountainous Areas:A Case Study of Renhuai City,Guizhou

Farmland resources in mountainous areas are important for regional food security and ecological secu- rity. Studies concerning changes in farmland use in mountainous areas are of considerable significance in China. Here, we analyzed marginalization characteristics of farmland in Renhuai city from 2005 to 2011 and driving factors using land information systems, surveys of farmer households and statistical data. Our results indicate that from 2005 to 2011, 3095.76 hm2 of farmland was converted to forest land and natural reserve, accounting for 5.45% of the total farmland area. This suggests significant marginalization of farmland. Marginalization of farmland in mountainous areas was affected by topography, labor forces and effectiveness of land management. Farmland with a greater slope gradient was more likely to be abandoned; among marginalized land in Renhuai, a slope greater than 15~ accounted for 62.26%. A high non-agricultural employment rate of rural labor force and annual income per capita of farmer households in mountainous areas were consistent with high speed farmland marginalization. Low land management benefits were the key reason for farmland marginalization. Although farmland marginalization was advantageous for eco-environment protection and sustainable development in mountainous areas, it resulted in inefficient land resource utilization. A win-win model for the exploitation and utilization of sloping farmland should be explored for production development and environmental protection.

Farmland marginalization in the mountainous areas： Characteristics, influencing factors and policy implications

Based on SPOT-5 images, 1：1 million topographic maps, the maps of the returning farmland to forest project and the Chongqing forest project, social and economic statistics, etc., this paper identifies the features and factors influencing farmland marginalization. The results showed： （1） During 2002-2012, the rate of farmland marginalization was 16.18%, which was mainly found in the high areas of northern Qiyao mountains and the medium-altitude areas of southern Qiyao mountains. And this farmland marginalization will increase, associated with non-agriculturalization of rural labourers and aging of the remaining labourers. （2） Elevation, distance radius from villages and road connections had a great in- fluence on farmland marginalization. Farmland marginalization rates showed an increasing trend with the increase of elevation, and 60.88% of the total farmland marginalization area is found at an altitude greater than 1000 m above sea level. The marginalization trend also increases with slope and distance from the distribution network. （3） Farmland area per labourer and the average age of farm labourers were major factors driving farmland marginalization. Farmland transfer and small agricultural machinery sets affect farmland marginalization with respect to management and productivity efficiency. （4） Farmland with ＂comparative-disadvantage-dominated marginalization＂ accounted for 55.32% of the total farmland marginalization area, followed by ＂location-dominated marginalization＂ （33.80%）. （5） According to the specifics of each real situation, different policies are suggested to mitigate the margin- alization. A ＂continuous marginalization＂ policy will encourage the return of farmland to forest in ＂terrain-dominated marginalization＂. An ＂anti-marginalization＂ policy is suggested to create new rural accommodation and improve the rural road system to counteract ＂terrain-dominated marginalization＂. And another ＂anti-marginalization＂ policy is planned to improve management and micro-mechanization for ＂comparative-disadvantage-dominated marginalization＂. A new idea was developed to integrate high resolution remote sensing and statistical data with survey information to identify land marginalization and its driving forces in mountainous areas.

Understanding the Chinese stock market:international comparison and policy implications

The definitions of the bear,sidewalk and bull markets are ambiguous in the existing literature.This makes it difficult for practitioners to distinguish between different market conditions.In this paper,we propose statistical definitions of the bear,sidewalk and bull markets,which correspond to the three states in our hidden semi-Markov model.We apply this analysis to the daily returns of the Chinese stock market and seven developed markets.Using the Viterbi algorithm to globally decode the most likely sequence of the market conditions,we systematically find the precise timing of the bear,sidewalk and bull markets for all the eight markets.Through the comparison of the estimation and decoding results,many unique characteristics of the Chinese stock market are revealed,such as‘crazy bull’,‘frequent and quick bear’and‘no buffer zone’.In China,the bull market is more volatile than in developed markets,the bear market occurs more frequently than in developed markets,and the sidewalk market has not functioned as a buffer zone since 2005.Possible causes of these unique characteristics are also discussed and implications for policy-making are suggested.

Unveiling Global Human Trafficking Trends: A Comprehensive Analysis

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of global human trafficking trends over a twenty-year period, leveraging a robust dataset from the Counter Trafficking Data Collaborative (CTDC). The study unfolds in a systematic manner, beginning with a detailed data collection phase, where ethical and legal standards for data usage and privacy are strictly observed. Following collection, the data undergoes a rigorous preprocessing stage, involving cleaning, integration, transformation, and normalization to ensure accuracy and consistency for analysis. The analytical phase employs time-series analysis to delineate historical trends and utilizes predictive modeling to forecast future trajectories of human trafficking using the advanced analytical capabilities of Power BI. A comparative analysis across regions—Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe—is conducted to identify and visualize the distribution of human trafficking, dissecting the data by victim demographics, types of exploitation, and duration of victimization. The findings of this study not only offer a descriptive and predictive outlook on trafficking patterns but also provide insights into the regional nuances that influence these trends. The article underscores the prevalence and persistence of human trafficking, identifies factors contributing to its evolution, and discusses the implications for policy and law enforcement. By integrating a methodological approach with quantitative analysis, this research contributes to the strategic planning and resource allocation for combating human trafficking. It highlights the necessity for continued research and international cooperation to effectively address and mitigate this global issue. The implications of this research are significant, offering actionable insights for policymakers, law enforcement, and advocates in the ongoing battle against human trafficking.

Comparison of the Development Model of DTP Pharmacy between China and the United States and Its Enlightenment

Objective To systematically analyze the development status of DTP pharmacy in the United States and China,and to find out the problems in China’s DTP pharmacy and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.Methods Relevant literature was searched and reviewed to study the history,market scale and development trend of DTP pharmacy in the United States and China.Then,the problems in China’s DTP pharmacy were found out.Results and Conclusion DTP pharmacy model in the U.S.has taken shape and is maturing.The high degree of industry concentration is an important feature of the U.S.pharmacy.In contrast,China’s DTP pharmacy started late,and the industry pattern has not yet been finalized.There are still some problems in the DTP pharmacy certification and quality management.It is recommended to promote the rapid development of DTP pharmacies in China by encouraging the outflow of prescription drugs,establishing a third-party pharmacy accreditation organization and strengthening the team of licensed pharmacists and other personnel.

Comparison of the Development of CDMO at Home and Abroad and Its Enlightment to China

Objective To analyze the development status of contract development manufacturing organization(CDMO)at home and abroad,and to make some suggestions for the development of CDMO in China.Methods The relevant literature was searched and reviewed,and the development status of CDMOs in the United States,France,Japan and China was compared from the aspects of market scale,development process,development focus,advantages and disadvantages,and policy support.Then,some suggestions for the development of CDMO enterprises in China were summarized.Results and Conclusion Through the comparison of CDMO development at home and abroad,it can be seen that China started CDMO late,there were many technical barriers and its globalization layout were not sufficient.However,the development trend was good and it focused on the field of chemical drugs and biological drugs to constantly develop innovative drugs.China needs to continuously improve its own technical capabilities to carry out innovative research.Therefore,cost reduction and efficiency increase will be the key elements for the development of CDMOs,and they are expected to have a rapid and comprehensive development in the future.

Effect of Sample Unit Size on Visually Examining Pavement Condition for Asphalt-Surfaced Roads

Road surface condition evaluation involves the collection of data over pavement surface for different types of distresses. The exercise consumes a lot of resources if the whole road section length is surveyed and may be prone to errors as a result of surveyors＇ fatigue. It is therefore important to develop a representative sample to be used when evaluating road condition manually. This study aimed at determining an adequate sample size for section level as well as a way forward for network level condition evaluation of highways in Nepal. Again the study was conducted to quantify the effects of altering the sample unit size for performing a distress survey according to the PCI （pavement condition index） and SDI （surface distress index） method separately for asphalt surfaced roads. The effect of reducing/increasing sample unit size was investigated adopting visual examination through field survey by eight teams in July, 2015, along the section of Banepa-Bardibas highway. The PCI was then calculated for each sample unit using standard deduct curves and PCI calculation methodology as per SHRP （Strategic Highway Research Program） recommendations and the computation of SDI was done as per DoR （Department of Roads） guidelines. The results show that 13% sample unit are needed for SDI and 21% for PCI computation, however, the results are out of the significant level. This is higher than DoR and SHRP guidelines. Again no strong relationship is observed between SDI and PCI values.

Social Causes of Arab Youth Radicalizing

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of macro social factors （states, religion, region, Arab spring, terrorism, unrest （Shoe index）, democracy, corruption （GPI）, Human development （HDI）, low self-control, life stress events （LSE）, youth unemployment, religiosity, feeling （fear and anger）, youth unemployment and total unemployment） on Arab youth＇s radicalization. A sample of 6,730 Arab youth age 15-24 years was selected from Kuwait, UAE, KSA, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Lebanon, Egypt, Gaza and Palestine and Syrian refuges in Jordan. A questionnaire of 43 items to measure radicalization was developed based on the literature review. A construct validity of the scale was estimated by calculating the correlation between radicalization scale and Low self-control scale and found a positive significant relationship （0.680, a = 0.000）, a sign of validity of the scale. A Reliability of the scale is strong and was estimated by Cronbach＇s alpha and was 0.947. An average of 46.6% of the participants was categorized as radicals with standard deviation of 12. Macro social factors explained 64% of the variance on radicalization. It has a significant impact on radicalization （F = 807.6, a = 0.000）. Each single variable has a significant impact. The analysis revealed three groups of macro determinants of youth radicalization were identified： （1） Geographic factors： state, region, and Arab spring; （2） Social factors： religion, religiously, feelings, LSE and LSC; （3） Human security： unrest, terrorism, democracy, corruption, human development, youth unemployment and employment rate. To alleviate the consequences of radicalization, prevention policies should take in account youth concerns as partners and victims of radicalization. Policies need to focus on radicalization pull and push factors on micro-meso-macro level.

Prioritizing Indicators for Rapid Response in Global Health Security:A Bayesian Network Approach

This study explored a Bayesian belief networks(BBNs)approach,developing two distinct models for prioritizing the seven indicators related to the“rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic”category within the context of both the specifc category and the Global Health Security Index(GHS index).Utilizing data from the 2021 GHS index,the methodology involves rigorous preprocessing,the application of the augmented naive Bayes algorithm for structural learning,and k-fold cross-validation.Key fndings show unique perspectives in both BBN models.In the mutual value of information analysis,“linking public health and security authorities”emerged as the key predictor for the“rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic”category,while“emergency preparedness and response planning”assumed precedence for the GHS index.Sensitivity analysis highlighted the critical role of“emergency preparedness and response planning”and“linking public health and security authorities”in extreme performance states,with“access to communications infrastructure”and“trade and travel restrictions”exhibiting varied signifcance.The BBN models exhibit high predictive accuracy,achieving 83.3%and 82.3%accuracy for extreme states in“rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic”and the GHS index,respectively.This study contributes to the literature on GHS by modeling the dependencies among various indicators of the rapid response dimension of the GHS index and highlighting their relative importance based on the mutual value of information and sensitivity analyses.