Spatial heterogeneity and population risk analysis of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera, in ChinaKey words spatial characteristics, spatial pattern, semivariance, population management, geostatistics, Helicoverpa armigera, population regulation

In this study, semivariance was used to quantitatively measure the spatial heterogeneity for the egg population of cotton bollworm during a growing season. The typical characteristic parameters of theoretical semivariance models against lag distances were applied to measure components of spatial heterogeneity： trend, range, spatial dependence, and the strength of spatial dependence. Then, kriging interpolation was used to evaluate the population risk of cotton bollworm exceeding economic thresholds. From early June through early September, the population densities were sampled 10 times in the study field. Results showed that the spatial patterns were related to population density. For its low-density population, the spatially heterogeneous trends were usually of spherical shapes; but for highdensity ones, the trends shifted to Gaussian shapes. The spatial dependence appeared at varied distances ranging from 52 meters to 936 meters, and the spatial dependence was in the range of 0.39-288.60, which changed with population densities. While having high heterogeneity, the strength of spatial dependence became much stronger. Results of population risk analysis showed that there was a high risk during its early stages, especially in mid-June. In August, population risk was so low that it did not need to be controlled.

Family Planning Management Of the Floating Population in Xi'an City

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A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the popu- lation density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

Inducing Flow Velocities to Manage Fish Reproduction in Regulated Rivers

Conservation of endangered or economic fish and control of invasive fish is a great challenge of hydraulic engineering worldwide.Flow velocity has been recognized to affect the spawning of fishes delivering drifting eggs in rivers.However,solid scientific supports and associated mechanisms to establish quantitative relations between flow velocity and fish reproduction,taking into account spawning,fertilizing,hatching,as well as surviving,are lacking.In this paper,we quantified the relationship between flow velocity and reproduction of Chinese carps through both lab and field experiments.The results showed that a minimum velocity was required to trigger Hypophthalmichthys molitrix(H.molitrix)releasing eggs,and a velocity range was preferred to sustain spawning activity.However,the embryo incubation and larvae development of H.molitrix were found to be inhibited with the increase in flow velocity.Considering the requirements of spawning and hatching,as well as larvae surviving,an optimized flow velocity processes was identified for the reproduction of H.molitrix in rivers.These findings were of great significance to the adaptive operation of reservoirs to create reasonable and precise ecological flows for managing fish reproduction,as shown by the promising results in the engineering application to the Three Gorges Reservoir.

Prevalence and correlates of lifestyle behavior,anxiety and depression in Chinese college freshman:A cross-sectional survey

Objectives:First-year college students had exposure to unhealthy lifestyle behaviors that correlate with a high prevalence of anxiety and depression.Regarding to the modifiable lifestyle behaviors factors,this study investigated the prevalence and correlation of multiple lifestyle behaviors,anxiety and depression in a sample of Chinese first-year college students.Methods:Cross-sectional data were extracted from Residents eHealth app of health lifestyle behaviors survey from September to October 2019.Anxiety,depression,eating regular meals,consumption of snacks in-between meals,consumption of fruit,dessert and sugar-sweetened beverages,smoking and secondhand smoke exposure,consuming alcohol,physical activity,sedentary time were assessed by self-report.Socio-demographic including age,gender,education,family income,religion,and health condition were captured.Logistic regression was used to explore the association of multiple lifestyle behaviors,anxiety and depression.Results:Totally 1,017 participants were included in the study.The prevalence of anxiety and depression(from mild to severe) were 40.3% and 45.3%,respectively.In multivariable analyses,religion (believe in Buddhism,OR =2.438,95%CI:1.097-5.421;believe in Christian,OR =5.886,95%CI:1.604-21.597),gender (Female,OR =1.405,95%CI:1.001-1.971),secondhand smoke exposure (OR =1.089,95%CI:1.001-1.184),and eating regular meals (OR =0.513,95%C1:0.346-0.759) were associated with anxiety.Family income (OR =0.732,95%CI:0.596-0.898),eating regular meals (OR =0.641,95%CI:0.415-0.990),frequency of breakfast (OR =0.813,95%CI:0.690-0.959),with a chronic disease (OR =1.902,95%CI:1.335-2.712),and consumption of nocturnal snack (OR =1.337,95%CI:1.108-1.612) were associated with depression.Conclusions:These results highlighted the need for early lifestyle behavior intervention,especially modifying diet patterns considering the background of religion,health condition,and social-economic status in first-year college students to improve their mental health.

The Accountable Care Organization results:Population health management and quality improvement programs associated with increased quality of care and decreased utilization and cost of care

Objective:The Accountable Care Organization(ACO)model of health care delivery is based on new payment models for general practice to reward improved quality and decreased cost of care.Methods:Banner Health Network(BHN)is one of the original CMS Pioneer ACO programs and implemented a comprehensive disease management program based on the collaborative care model.Key performance indicators for CMS reflected quality and cost of care.Results:BHN has demonstrated both improved quality and cost savings in the first two years of the pilot program.The disease management program based on the collaborative care model appears to have improved patient health outcomes based on quality improvement measures.In addition the program has reduced emergency department and hospital utilization,resulting in cost savings.Conclusions:The BHN quality improvement program is the platform for analyzing and improving on the BHN ACO model.This model appears to have excellent application to the China health care system that is also focused on prevention and improvement of chronic disease and cost-effectiveness.

Developing fertility control for rodents: a framework for researchers and practitioners

Fertility control is often heralded as a humane and effective technique for management of overabundant wildlife,including rodents.The intention is to reduce the use of lethal and inhumane methods,increase farm productivity and food security as well as reduce disease transmission,particularly of zoonoses.We developed a framework to guide researchers and stakeholders planning to assess the effectiveness of a potential contraceptive agent for a particular species.Our guidelines describe the overarching research questions which must be sequentially addressed to ensure adequate data are collected so that a contraceptive can be registered for use in broad-scale rodent management.The framework indicates that studies should be undertaken iteratively and,at times,in parallel,with initial research being conducted on(1)laboratory-based captive assessments of contraceptive effects in individuals;(2)simulation of contraceptive delivery using bait markers and/or surgical sterilization of different proportions of afield-based or enclosure population to determine how population dynamics are affected;(3)development of mathematical models which predict the outcomes of different fertility control scenarios;and(4)implementation of large-scale,replicated trials to validate contraceptive efficacy under various management-scalefield situations.In some circumstances,fertility control may be most effective when integrated with other methods(e.g.some culling).Assessment of non-target effects,direct and indirect,and the environmental fate of the contraceptive must also be determined.Developing fertility control for a species is a resource-intensive commitment but will likely be less costly than the ongoing environmental and economic impacts by rodents and rodenticides in many contexts.

Life’s Essential 8 and risk of non-communicable chronic diseases:Outcome-wide analyses

Background:Life’s Simple 7,the former construct of cardiovascular health(CVH)has been used to evaluate adverse non-communicable chronic diseases(NCDs).However,some flaws have been recognized in recent years and Life’s Essential 8 has been established.In this study,we aimed to analyze the association between CVH defined by Life’s Essential 8 and risk of 44 common NCDs and further estimate the population attributable fractions(PAFs)of low-moderate CVH scores in the 44 NCDs.Methods:In the UK Biobank,170,726 participants free of 44 common NCDs at baseline were included.The Life’s Essential 8 composite measure consists of four health behaviours(diet,physical activity,nicotine exposure,and sleep)and four health factors(body mass index,non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol,blood glucose,and blood pressure),and the maximum CVH score was 100 points.CVH score was categorized into low,moderate,and high groups.Participants were followed up for 44 NCDs diagnosis across 10 human system disorders according to the International Classification of Diseases 10th edition(ICD-10)code using linkage to national health records until 2022.Cox proportional hazard models were used in this study.The hazard ratios(HRs)and PAFs of 44 NCDs associated with CVH score were examined.Results:During the median follow-up of 10.85 years,58,889 incident NCD cases were documented.Significant linear dose-response associations were found between higher CVH score and lower risk of 25(56.8%)of 44 NCDs.Low-moderate CVH(<80 points)score accounted for the largest proportion of incident cases in diabetes(PAF:80.3%),followed by gout(59.6%),sleep disorder(55.6%),chronic liver disease(45.9%),chronic kidney disease(40.9%),ischemic heart disease(40.8%),chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(40.0%),endometrium cancer(35.8%),lung cancer(34.0%),and heart failure(34.0%)as the top 10.Among the eight modifiable factors,overweight/obesity explained the largest number of cases of incident NCDs in endocrine,nutritional,and metabolic diseases(35.4%),digestive system disorders(21.4%),mental and behavioral disorders(12.6%),and cancer(10.3%);however,the PAF of ideal sleep duration ranked first in nervous system(27.5%)and neuropsychiatric disorders(9.9%).Conclusions:Improving CVH score based on Life’s Essential 8 may lower risk of 25 common NCDs.Among CVH metrics,avoiding overweight/obesity may be especially important to prevent new cases of metabolic diseases,NCDs in digestive system,mental and behavioral disorders,and cancer.

New models for chronic disease management in the United States and China

In the United States(US)the role of the general practitioner in primary care is changing rapidly as the team leader in the new“Patient-centered Medical Home”model of care that is designed to improve the management of chronic disease.The“Collaborative Care Model”is an integrated model of treating multiple medical and behavioral conditions.These new approaches include a nurse case manager who serves as the key point of contact to provide education,facilitate treatment adherence,and guide the patient to improvements in nutrition and physical activity that cause obesity and chronic disease.A gap analysis was conducted comparing the US and Chinese general practitioner models for providing care to patients with chronic diseases.The results of the analysis were used to make recommendations for adding components of these models that are feasible and effective for Chinese general practitioners in community health centers.