Background:One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is clarifying which and how external and intrinsic factors influence wildlife demography and long-term viability.The wild population...Background:One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is clarifying which and how external and intrinsic factors influence wildlife demography and long-term viability.The wild population of the Crested Ibis(Nipponia nippon)has recovered to approximately 4400,and several reintroduction programs have been carried out in China,Japan and Korea.Population viability analysis on this endangered species has been limited to the wild population,showing that the long-term population growth is restricted by the carrying capacity and inbreeding.However,gaps in knowledge of the viability of the reintroduced population and its drivers in the release environment impede the identification of the most effective population-level priorities for aiding in species recovery.Methods:The field monitoring data were collected from a reintroduced Crested Ibis population in Ningshan,China from 2007 to 2018.An individual-based VORTEX model(Version 10.3.5.0)was used to predict the future viability of the reintroduced population by incorporating adaptive patterns of ibis movement in relation to catastrophe frequency,mortality and sex ratio.Results:The reintroduced population in Ningshan County is unlikely to go extinct in the next 50 years.The popula-tion size was estimated to be 367,and the population genetic diversity was estimated to be 0.97.Sensitivity analysis showed that population size and extinction probability were dependent on the carrying capacity and sex ratio.The carrying capacity is the main factor accounting for the population size and genetic diversity,while the sex ratio is the primary factor responsible for the population growth trend.Conclusions:A viable population of the Crested Ibis can be established according to population viability analysis.Based on our results,conservation management should prioritize a balanced sex ratio,high-quality habitat and low mortality.展开更多
The white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) is facing range-wide declines throughout the Neotropics. It has been eliminated from about 89% of its historical range in Costa Rica. Corcovado National Park, in the Osa Penin...The white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) is facing range-wide declines throughout the Neotropics. It has been eliminated from about 89% of its historical range in Costa Rica. Corcovado National Park, in the Osa Peninsula of Costa Rica, is the last remaining stronghold for the white-lipped peccary in the country. In 2013, the Park experienced a sudden gold rush that brought with it a wave of 250 miners and vigorous hunting pressures on the population. Given that the species is endangered and is susceptible to hunting due to its herding behavior and tendency to cohere and attack when threatened rather than flee, it is important to assess its probability of extinction under various hunting scenarios. Incorporating data from studies on the life history of the species throughout its range in the Neotropics and in Corcovado, I used the population viability analysis software VORTEX to simulate the population trajectories and probabilities of extinction of the species under current hunting pressures and under various management scenarios. The results of this study revealed that under the 2013 scenario where 250 miners were present in the Park, the population of white-lipped peccaries has a about a 40% chance of extinction within five years and about a 99% chance of extinction within 10 years. Moreover, there is an “extinction threshold” for the population between the presence of 100 and 150 miners hunting in the Park. At this threshold, the population growth rate, r, drops from a positive growth rate (r = 0.09, SD = 0.08) to a negative one (r = -0.07, SD = 0.29). I suggest that anti-mining and anti-poaching laws be enforced immediately, and that the number of miners be reduced to 100 at a minimum, if not completely, in order to ensure that the population of white-lipped peccaries becomes viable and evades a local extinction.展开更多
Small populations are at risk of extinction from deterministic and stochastic factors.Less than 250 Asian elephants(Elephas maximus)remain in China,and are distributed in a few isolated areas;yet,population viability ...Small populations are at risk of extinction from deterministic and stochastic factors.Less than 250 Asian elephants(Elephas maximus)remain in China,and are distributed in a few isolated areas;yet,population viability analyses of this endangered population have not been conducted.Here,the current genetic status of the Pu’Er-Mengyang Asian elephant populations in China was analyzed,and the risk of extinction was predicted over the next 500 years.Factors affecting the viability of this population were determined through simulations.The genetic diversity of the population was very low(mean allele number:3.1;expected heterozygosity:0.463),even though a recent population bottleneck was not detected.The effective population size was approximately 24.1 adult elephants.Enough adult breeding individuals exist to maintain population viability.VORTEX simulation model showed that this population would not go extinct in the next 500 years.However,illegal poaching and harvesting could negatively affect population size.A sensitivity analysis showed that the mean stochastic growth rate of the study population is sensitive to sex ratio,number of breeding females,mortality of females of different age classes,carrying capacity,and lethal equivalents.Based on our results,we suggest that action should be taken to alleviate inbreeding and any further loss of genetic diversity,by connecting fragmented elephant habitat or by translocating individual elephants.In addition,human–elephant conflict should be mitigated using various modern approaches,including crop guarding techniques,and by encouraging farmers to switch to crops and income sources not vulnerable to elephant raids.展开更多
A population viability analysis(PVA)was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region,Brazil,including Morro do Diabo State Park(MDSP)and surrounding forest fra...A population viability analysis(PVA)was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region,Brazil,including Morro do Diabo State Park(MDSP)and surrounding forest fragments.Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to per-sist over the next 100 years;however,200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population.Sensitiv-ity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations.High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction.Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation,as fragments act as sinks.Nevertheless,the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region,particularly in the smaller fragments.The establishment of corridors con-necting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate,making ta-pirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes,but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using cor-ridors.The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on:the effective protection of MDSP;maintenance and,whenever possible,enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape,reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments;and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments.展开更多
The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger(Panthera tigris altaica)population living along the China-Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size(including 38 individuals)and canin...The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger(Panthera tigris altaica)population living along the China-Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size(including 38 individuals)and canine distemper virus(CDV).We use a population viability analysis metamodel,which consists of a traditional individual-based demographic model linked to an epidemiological model,to assess options for controlling the impact of negative factors through domestic dog management in protected areas,increasing connectivity to the neighboring large population(including more than 400 individuals),and habitat expansion.Without intervention,under inbreeding depression of 3.14,6.29,and 12.26 lethal equivalents,our metamodel predicted the extinction within 100 years is 64.4%,90.6%,and 99.8%,respectively.In addition,the simulation results showed that dog management or habitat expansion independently will not ensure tiger population viability for the next 100 years,and connectivity to the neighboring population would only keep the population size from rapidly declining.However,when the above three conservation scenarios are combined,even at the highest level of 12.26 lethal equivalents inbreeding depression,population size will not decline and the probability of extinction will be<5.8%.Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur tiger necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort.Our key management recommendations for this population underline the importance of reducing CDV threats and expanding tiger occupancy to its former range in China,but re-establishing habitat connectivity to the neighboring population is an important long-term objective.展开更多
基金The study was supported by Shaanxi Forestry Bureau and National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.31872245 and 31572282).
文摘Background:One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is clarifying which and how external and intrinsic factors influence wildlife demography and long-term viability.The wild population of the Crested Ibis(Nipponia nippon)has recovered to approximately 4400,and several reintroduction programs have been carried out in China,Japan and Korea.Population viability analysis on this endangered species has been limited to the wild population,showing that the long-term population growth is restricted by the carrying capacity and inbreeding.However,gaps in knowledge of the viability of the reintroduced population and its drivers in the release environment impede the identification of the most effective population-level priorities for aiding in species recovery.Methods:The field monitoring data were collected from a reintroduced Crested Ibis population in Ningshan,China from 2007 to 2018.An individual-based VORTEX model(Version 10.3.5.0)was used to predict the future viability of the reintroduced population by incorporating adaptive patterns of ibis movement in relation to catastrophe frequency,mortality and sex ratio.Results:The reintroduced population in Ningshan County is unlikely to go extinct in the next 50 years.The popula-tion size was estimated to be 367,and the population genetic diversity was estimated to be 0.97.Sensitivity analysis showed that population size and extinction probability were dependent on the carrying capacity and sex ratio.The carrying capacity is the main factor accounting for the population size and genetic diversity,while the sex ratio is the primary factor responsible for the population growth trend.Conclusions:A viable population of the Crested Ibis can be established according to population viability analysis.Based on our results,conservation management should prioritize a balanced sex ratio,high-quality habitat and low mortality.
文摘The white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) is facing range-wide declines throughout the Neotropics. It has been eliminated from about 89% of its historical range in Costa Rica. Corcovado National Park, in the Osa Peninsula of Costa Rica, is the last remaining stronghold for the white-lipped peccary in the country. In 2013, the Park experienced a sudden gold rush that brought with it a wave of 250 miners and vigorous hunting pressures on the population. Given that the species is endangered and is susceptible to hunting due to its herding behavior and tendency to cohere and attack when threatened rather than flee, it is important to assess its probability of extinction under various hunting scenarios. Incorporating data from studies on the life history of the species throughout its range in the Neotropics and in Corcovado, I used the population viability analysis software VORTEX to simulate the population trajectories and probabilities of extinction of the species under current hunting pressures and under various management scenarios. The results of this study revealed that under the 2013 scenario where 250 miners were present in the Park, the population of white-lipped peccaries has a about a 40% chance of extinction within five years and about a 99% chance of extinction within 10 years. Moreover, there is an “extinction threshold” for the population between the presence of 100 and 150 miners hunting in the Park. At this threshold, the population growth rate, r, drops from a positive growth rate (r = 0.09, SD = 0.08) to a negative one (r = -0.07, SD = 0.29). I suggest that anti-mining and anti-poaching laws be enforced immediately, and that the number of miners be reduced to 100 at a minimum, if not completely, in order to ensure that the population of white-lipped peccaries becomes viable and evades a local extinction.
基金the National Nature Science Foundation of China[31570408]。
文摘Small populations are at risk of extinction from deterministic and stochastic factors.Less than 250 Asian elephants(Elephas maximus)remain in China,and are distributed in a few isolated areas;yet,population viability analyses of this endangered population have not been conducted.Here,the current genetic status of the Pu’Er-Mengyang Asian elephant populations in China was analyzed,and the risk of extinction was predicted over the next 500 years.Factors affecting the viability of this population were determined through simulations.The genetic diversity of the population was very low(mean allele number:3.1;expected heterozygosity:0.463),even though a recent population bottleneck was not detected.The effective population size was approximately 24.1 adult elephants.Enough adult breeding individuals exist to maintain population viability.VORTEX simulation model showed that this population would not go extinct in the next 500 years.However,illegal poaching and harvesting could negatively affect population size.A sensitivity analysis showed that the mean stochastic growth rate of the study population is sensitive to sex ratio,number of breeding females,mortality of females of different age classes,carrying capacity,and lethal equivalents.Based on our results,we suggest that action should be taken to alleviate inbreeding and any further loss of genetic diversity,by connecting fragmented elephant habitat or by translocating individual elephants.In addition,human–elephant conflict should be mitigated using various modern approaches,including crop guarding techniques,and by encouraging farmers to switch to crops and income sources not vulnerable to elephant raids.
文摘A population viability analysis(PVA)was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region,Brazil,including Morro do Diabo State Park(MDSP)and surrounding forest fragments.Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to per-sist over the next 100 years;however,200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population.Sensitiv-ity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations.High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction.Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation,as fragments act as sinks.Nevertheless,the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region,particularly in the smaller fragments.The establishment of corridors con-necting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate,making ta-pirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes,but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using cor-ridors.The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on:the effective protection of MDSP;maintenance and,whenever possible,enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape,reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments;and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31971539)the National Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Program of China(2019FY101700)a scholarship from the China Scholarship Council(202106040062).
文摘The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger(Panthera tigris altaica)population living along the China-Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size(including 38 individuals)and canine distemper virus(CDV).We use a population viability analysis metamodel,which consists of a traditional individual-based demographic model linked to an epidemiological model,to assess options for controlling the impact of negative factors through domestic dog management in protected areas,increasing connectivity to the neighboring large population(including more than 400 individuals),and habitat expansion.Without intervention,under inbreeding depression of 3.14,6.29,and 12.26 lethal equivalents,our metamodel predicted the extinction within 100 years is 64.4%,90.6%,and 99.8%,respectively.In addition,the simulation results showed that dog management or habitat expansion independently will not ensure tiger population viability for the next 100 years,and connectivity to the neighboring population would only keep the population size from rapidly declining.However,when the above three conservation scenarios are combined,even at the highest level of 12.26 lethal equivalents inbreeding depression,population size will not decline and the probability of extinction will be<5.8%.Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur tiger necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort.Our key management recommendations for this population underline the importance of reducing CDV threats and expanding tiger occupancy to its former range in China,but re-establishing habitat connectivity to the neighboring population is an important long-term objective.
