The effects of population aging on industrial structure upgrading:Empirical analysis of provincial and threshold characteristics in China

Global population aging trends are intensifying,presenting multifaceted economic and social challenges for countries worldwide.As the world’s largest developing country,China has entered a phase of extreme demographic aging,posing significant questions about its impact on the ongoing upgrading of industrial structures.How does this demographic shift influence the upgrading of industrial structures,and does technological innovation mitigate or exacerbate this impact?The empirical results indicate that population aging impedes upgrading the industrial structure,while technological innovation positively affects the relationship between the two.Moreover,using technological innovation as a threshold variable,the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading evolves in a“gradient”manner from“impediment”to“insignificant”to“promotion”as the technological innovation levels increase.These findings offer practical guidance for tailoring industrial policies to different stages of technological advancement.

Research on the threshold effect of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading in China

This paper constructs coefficients of the integral and the internal structure upgrading in the secondary and tertiary industries, selects per capita real gross domestic product as a threshold variable and build panel threshold model according to inter-provincial panel data of China from 1998 to 2016. Results indicated that population aging has a double threshold effect on the integral industrial structure upgrading, whose influence increases first and then decreases, significantly promoting the upgrading process. As for internal structure, population aging has no significant threshold effect on the upgrading in the secondary industry, but exerts a single negative threshold effect in the tertiary industry. When economic development is under the threshold, its negative impact is greater. Further analysis also suggests that regional differences exist significantly in the threshold effect of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading.

An Empirical Study of the Relationship among Population Mobility Industrial Structure Upgrading, and Economic Growth-Based on the SPVAR Model

Based on the inter-provincial panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019,and incorporating geospatial factors,a spatial panel vector autoregressive(SPVAR)model consisting of population mobility,industrial structure upgrading,and economic growth is constructed.The space-time impulse response function is used to analyze the space-time conduction of exogenous variables on the impact of three endogenous variables.The study found that first,the population influx barely benefited the industrial structure upgrading and economic growth.Second,the upgrading of the industrial structure would aggravate the population mobility in the province,causing low-level laborers to leave the province in shortterm,but in long-term,there would be influx of talents.Third,the economic growth in developed regions plays a significant role in promoting the industrial development of their province and population-rich provinces,but it has less impact on provinces with high-level industrial structure.Finally,policy recommendations are provided in regard to the benign interaction among population mobility,industrial structure upgrading,and economic growth in addition to clarifying the idea of economic development,implementing correct population policies,and promoting the coordinated regional development.

Research on Coordination between Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in Shandong Province

Industrial structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded with the rapid development of economy in Shandong Province since1980. On the basis of summarizing the changes of industrial structure and employment structure in Shandong Province,the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure in Shandong Province was analyzed by using structure deviation degree and coordination coefficient,and some suggestions to promote the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure were put forward according to the practical situations of Shandong Province.

A Quantitative Study on the Relationship between Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in Yulin

Reasonable industrial structure can promote the benign development of employment structure, and the coordination of the employment structure but also for industrial restructuring and upgrading to lay a solid foundation. This article take Yulin as an example, uses 1990-2014 year three industrial output value and the employment population statistical data, uses the statistics gauging device that has conducted the quantitative investigation to the Yulin industrial structure and the employment structure relations. First, this paper describes the evolution process of Yulin’s industrial structure and employment structure. Secondly, it uses the correlation analysis to confirm the strong correlation between Yulin’s industrial structure and employment structure, then, from the industrial structure deviation and employment elasticity, and the second industry, the first industry, labor surplus. Finally, according to the research income, gives the rational distribution of industrial layout to promote employment growh in the third industry and the policy recommendations.

POPULATION MOVEMENT AND THE CHANGE OF REGIONAL ECONOMY PATTERN

Population movement is an important phenomenon in China in recent years. Its mechanism is: (1) thrust of more people and less land in the eastern region of China; (2) attraction of dual economy in the western region of China; (3) national policy on preferential wages and grains for the western region. Population movement has an important effect on the change of regional division pattern in China: by the medium of the moving people, there forms another regional division pattern, i.e. rural industry system based on rural town industry; (2) there forms another profit mechanism compensated from the western region to the eastern region. It not only wins more profit in the eastern region, but also changes dual economy in the western region. Therefore, We should make choice of a comprehensible and encouraging attitude on population movement; a special government organization for general survey of the moving people should be set up at once.

Study on the Industry Structure of Employment and Its Optimizing Measures in China

This article studies the change in the industry structure of employment in China based on the practical analysis of data of the change in the industry structure of employment and the production value of three major sectors and GNP. At the same time, the article studies the status quo of the industry structure of employment in China compared with other countries. On the basis of these studies, the article indicates the main problems in the industry structure of employment in China and gives some countermeasures to optimize it.

Empirical Study on Effects of Different Types of Urbanization on Consumption Structure of Rural Residents in China

In the process of urbanization,there are problems of decline in rural population,shrinkage of rural area,and constant increase in the per-capita net income of rural residents. These problems have brought about new characteristics and changes to the consumption structure of rural residents. This paper divided the urbanization into population urbanization,industrial urbanization and land urbanization. Using the panel data of 31 provinces in 2004-2013,it established the dynamic panel model and analyzed the effects of different types of urbanization on the consumption structure of rural residents. Results indicated that population urbanization exerts a negative effect on development-oriented consumption expenditure of rural residents,while it exerts a positive effect on enjoyment consumption expenditure; the industrial urbanization exerts a negative effect on the consumption expenditure of rural residents,while it exerts a positive effect on clothing and transportation communication consumption of rural residents; land urbanization exerts a negative effect on medical care expenditure in enjoyment consumption of rural residents. In view of these problems,it came up with recommendations,including stimulating the development of rural consumer market,liberating the consumption potentiality of rural areas,making clear emphasis points of different types of urbanization,avoiding promoting the urbanization in a blind manner,and adjusting the development of different types of urbanization on the basis of the consumption demands of rural residents.

Industrial and Employment Structural Imbalance in Northeast China and Agricultural Enhancement

Balanced development between industrial and employment structures are important indicators of regional economic and social health. By introducing indicators such as industrial structure deviation, comparative labor productivity, international comparison of relative labor productivity as well as employment elasticity, the paper further probed into intricate causes for the imbalance between industrial and employment structures in this specific region from a new angle which based on the evolution process analyses of both industrial and employment structures in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang in Northeast China. The paper also suggested policy measures to strengthen agricultural developments and to facilitate the balance between industrial and employment structures.

人工智能、财政支出结构偏向与高质量就业

本文选取2009—2018年省级层面数据,运用面板固定效应模型分析人工智能应用对高质量就业的影响及其传导机制。研究结果表明,人工智能应用总体能够促进高质量就业。调节效应检验结果显示,财政支出能够正向调节人工智能应用对高质量就业的积极影响,并由于财政支出呈现结构偏向的特征,不同性质的财政支出会使人工智能应用程度对高质量就业的影响产生差异。作用机制结果显示,人工智能应用程度会通过产业结构升级间接促进高质量就业。异质性分析结果表明,在地区分布上,人工智能应用程度对高质量就业的积极影响主要体现在东部地区;在时期分布上,在自动化赋能阶段(2009—2014年),人工智能应用程度呈现出对高质量就业的促进作用,而在智能化创新阶段(2015—2018年)则不明显。本文的研究结论为挖掘人工智能应用在中国如何实现更高质量就业,以及探究财政政策导向在其中的作用提供参考。

产业数字化的就业技能结构效应研究

以数字技术和实体经济融合为特征的产业数字化快速发展,衍生出多种新型就业形态,对就业技能结构产生了深刻影响。在分析产业数字化对劳动力就业技能结构影响机理基础上,文章基于国家统计局2021年颁布的数字经济产业统计分类标准构建了产业数字化综合指标体系,利用熵值法测算出2011~2020年中国各地区产业数字化水平,构建固定效应基准回归模型和调节效应模型,从省际层面实证检验了产业数字化对就业技能结构的效应。结果表明产业数字化提高了中高技能劳动力就业比重,降低了低技能劳动力就业份额,优化了就业技能结构。其中,产业结构高级化和互联网发展水平在产业数字化对劳动力就业技能结构的影响中发挥了调节作用。产业结构高级化和互联网发展水平均正向调节了产业数字化对高技能劳动力就业的促进作用,减弱了产业数字化对中等技能劳动力就业的正效应。异质性研究表明东部地区产业数字化对就业技能结构影响显著,而中西部地区影响并不明显。进一步拓展分析发现地区外包水平会强化产业数字化对高技能劳动力就业的促进作用。因此,建议加快产业数字化进程、提升全社会劳动力数字技能水平、完善区域协调发展、提高FDI和外包质量,发挥产业数字化对就业技能结构的升级优化效应,实现充分和高质量就业目标。

中国式现代化进程中产业数字化的就业效应研究

产业数字化是数字经济的重要组成部分,在加速推进中国式现代化的过程中,数字经济对于促进就业增长发挥着越来越重要的作用。利用2006—2019年中国265个城市数据和企业信息数据,实证检验了产业数字化的就业效应和影响机制。研究发现,产业数字化可以有效促进就业,并主要通过产业结构升级、提升创业活跃度促进就业,但提高生产效率也会抑制就业。异质性分析表明,在制造业、采矿业等从事简单重复和危险工种的劳动力,往往会受到产业数字化发展的负面影响,就业机会减少。进一步研究发现,产业数字化能够显著提升就业质量,优化就业结构。因此,建议加快数字经济发展,促进数字经济和实体经济融合;加快传统产业结构升级改造,拓展产业链的长度、宽度和深度,创造更多就业岗位;提高城市创新能力,提升创业活跃度,通过创新创业带动就业。

数字经济、产业结构与劳动力结构优化

近年来,数字经济持续蓬勃发展,传统型劳动者难以适应新兴数字生产力发展的要求。文章从技能、行业和产业三个角度实证研究数字经济和劳动力结构之间的动态关系,发现数字经济促进了高技能、高技术行业以及第三产业劳动力就业比重,减少了中、低技能劳动力就业比重。产业结构升级在数字经济对劳动力就业结构的作用中存在中介效应,表明数字经济通过产业结构升级促使劳动力结构发生变化。

数字技术进步如何影响我国就业技能结构--基于省级面板数据的研究

本文通过构建2010—2020年省级面板数据,针对数字技术进步与我国就业技能结构之间的关系展开实证研究,分析了消费互联网和工业互联网两类技术对就业技能结构的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)从全国层面来看,消费互联网和工业互联网发展均提升中高技能就业人数占比,降低低技能就业人数占比,数字技术进步总体上促进了我国就业技能结构升级。(2)从影响程度来看,工业互联网发展对就业结构升级的促进作用明显高于消费互联网。(3)从影响方式来看,工业互联网主要通过提升高技能劳动者相对薪资水平促进就业结构升级;而消费互联网在提升高技能溢价的同时也增加中等技能劳动者的相对薪资水平,同时通过提升地区生活成本挤出低技能劳动力。(4)从影响范围来看,消费互联网发展推动就业技能结构升级的影响范围更广,而工业互联网发展的就业技能结构升级作用则集中于中、西部地区。结论的政策含义是,应当持续推进数字技术进步,重视工业互联网技术对就业结构升级的基础作用,同时充分发挥消费互联网的岗位创造作用,各地区在发展数字经济时应注意不同类型数字技术对地区人力资本水平提升效果上的差异,同时加强区域间数字经济一体化建设。

数字经济对制造业就业结构的影响

就业作为民生之基,是经济稳定运行的关键.数字经济的快速发展,推动其与实体经济的深度融合,使得劳动力资源配置效率不断优化,对制造业就业结构产生深刻影响.基于2013—2021年省级面板数据,实证检验数字经济对制造业就业结构的影响.研究发现:一、数字经济显著促进制造业就业结构升级,且主要促进我国东部地区制造业就业结构升级;二、数字经济对制造业细分行业就业具有异质性影响,数字产业化更为显著地带动技术密集型行业就业规模的提升;三、数字经济可以通过产业结构升级、企业技术创新两种途径促进制造业就业结构升级.因此,为持续发挥数字经济对制造业就业结构的优化作用,应加快企业数字化转型,推动制造业高质量发展.

城市产业结构如何影响流动人口的定居意愿——基于结构方程模型的实证研究

在经济高质量发展的大背景下,产业结构转型升级正在持续进行,如何提高流动人口的定居意愿、实现以人为核心的新型城镇化是学界广泛关注的话题。然而现有针对定居意愿的研究多局限于收入、心理等个人属性,忽略了产业结构等客观因素对定居意愿的制约与塑造。通过多群组结构方程模型,从理论和实证两方面研究了城市产业结构对流动人口定居意愿的路径和机制。研究发现,个人就业质量和心理认同作为中介变量,解释了产业结构对定居意愿所产生的较强的间接影响;流动人口所从事的行业类型在该影响路径中具有显著的调节效应;不同产业的流动人口在定居意愿的影响路径上存在显著差异,第二产业群体更关注就业质量,第三产业群体则近似相同的受到心理认同和就业质量的影响。基于此,本文提出制定差异化的政策,提供符合产业需求的就业机会,增强流动人口心理认同的建设,进而推动当地的城镇化和市民化进程。

经济振兴背景下东北高等教育学科结构与就业结构、产业结构的适应性研究

基于我国东北地区2005-2021年的面板数据,运用熵值法、灰色关联度模型、Moore结构变化值等方法深入分析了高等教育学科结构与就业结构、产业结构之间的适应性程度。研究发现,黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省的高等教育学科结构与就业结构、产业结构的适应性评价分别为中、低、高。建议东北地区的高校从适当调整学科结构及其比例以增强“三结构”之间的关联性、加强前期人才需求预测进而缩短“三结构”之间的时滞时间两个方面增强高等教育学科结构与就业结构、产业结构的适应性。

我国各民族就业人口产业结构共同现代化历程研究

就业是最基本的民生,也是推动各民族共同走向现代化、推动中华民族共同体建设的重要手段。通过利用第三次至第七次全国人口普查资料,对改革开放40年来我国各民族就业人口产业结构现代化发展的历史进程进行了分析,结果显示,第一,40年来,各民族就业产业结构类型从以原始型为主转变为发展型占绝对优势,现代化转变趋势凸显。第二,我国各民族就业人口产业结构现代化历程经历四个阶段:1982至1990年为蓄能阶段,各民族人口在第一产业的占比下降幅度较小,现代化进程缓慢;1990至2000年为现代化起步阶段,东部地区外向型经济的发展带动各民族就业人口产业结构现代化起步;2000至2010年,西部大开发和特色产业发展加速民族地区经济模式转型,进入现代化加速阶段;2010至2020年,在精准扶贫等政策推动下,各民族就业人口产业结构现代化实现飞跃,少数民族整体第一产业比例降幅高达34.24个百分点,大多数民族进入现代化中后期。第三,各民族就业人口产业结构现代化差异性缩减,同步性凸显,各民族就业人口产业结构共同现代化的趋势得到确认。第四,目前存在个别民族第一产业人口占比依旧较高等问题,应该将这部分民族的发展作为未来民族工作的重点,争取在本世纪中叶实现56个民族全部完成就业人口产业结构现代化,实现全面建设社会主义现代化国家,一个民族也不能少。

粤港澳大湾区真的产业结构趋同了吗?——基于制造业产业结构趋同与竞合关系视角

制造业高质量发展是粤港澳大湾区经济发展迈向高端化的重要支撑与主攻方向。粤港澳大湾区内地城市制造业规模优势突出,调整区域产业结构,促进城市产业分工和协作对于提升粤港澳大湾区制造业核心竞争力意义重大。对粤港澳大湾区内地城市制造业2011年、2016年和2021年三个时间点的结构趋同程度、产业竞争和合作网络、行业专业化分工程度以及主导产业特征及其演变研究的结果表明:(1)粤港澳大湾区内地城市之间存在不同程度的制造业结构趋同,其中广州都市圈、深圳都市圈总体表现出合意的趋同,主要是都市圈核心城市与协作城市产业内和产业链分工协作所致。(2)粤港澳大湾区内地城市制造业的产业竞争表现为能级接近城市之间的横向竞争,这种横向竞争无论是否在相同城市圈都存在。产业合作则表现为核心城市与协作城市的纵向合作,主要存在于都市圈内部,且横向竞争在减弱,纵向合作得到加强。(3)核心城市部分行业专业化、集聚现象得到强化,外围城市正经历差异化、专业化发展阶段,这是制造业升级过程中产业在区域范围再次分工、协作的结果。(4)都市圈联系网络的加强、核心城市的辐射带动作用、地理邻近性、港澳地区的积极作用等是促进粤港澳大湾区内地城市制造业结构趋同和产业趋向分工合作的主要原因。

数字贸易对中国高质量充分就业的影响

在新发展阶段如何通过数字贸易推动高质量充分就业备受关注。本文基于2013—2020年我国30个省(市、自治区)(因数据缺失,不包括西藏和港澳台地区)的面板数据,利用熵值法对数字贸易与高质量充分就业发展水平进行测度,理论阐释并实证检验了数字贸易对高质量充分就业的影响及其作用机制。研究表明:考察期数字贸易对高质量充分就业有显著推动作用,在考虑内生性问题后该结论依然稳健。机制检验结果揭示,产业结构升级与人力资本积累分别从劳动力的需求和供给端发挥着重要的中介渠道作用。门槛分析显示数字贸易水平越高,对高质量充分就业的推动作用越强。空间溢出检验发现,本地数字贸易发展对邻地就业产生正向溢出效应。异质性检验中,数字贸易对高质量就业比对充分就业的推动作用更大,对东部地区的作用强于中西部地区。研究结论为更全面地考察数字贸易对高质量充分就业的影响提供理论依据、实证支持和政策参考。