Which Central and Eastern European country has the greatest potential for housing market recovery？

This paper is concentrated on analyzing the CEE （Central and Eastern European） countries housing and lending market development in 2002-2009. These countries experienced real estate boom and bust phases during that time and the aim of this paper is to understand which of these countries have the greatest potential for housing market recovery. The study has conducted comparable analysis of these countries and their real estate and lending market. The data was collected from central banks, national statistic offices and real estate companies. The results suggest that countries with higher housing debt had stronger real estate booms and the current bust-cycle has caused much steeper decline in prices. This paper attempts to look at the CEE housing markets from the developer＇s or investor＇s point of view and may be useful for banks and other financial institutions which are related to housing market and lending.

Can environmental sustainability be decoupled from economic growth? Empirical evidence from Eastern Europe using the common correlated effect mean group test

The European Union(EU) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) aim to develop long-term policies for their respective member countries. Having observed increasing dangers to the environment posed by rising economic growth, they are seeking pathways to enable policy action on economic growth and environmental sustainability. Given the facts in theoretical and empirical studies, this study assessed the validity of the decoupling hypothesis by investigating asymmetricity in the relationship between environmental sustainability and economic growth in nine Eastern European countries from 1998 to 2017 using the cross-section augmented Dickey-Fuller(CADF) unit root, panel corrected standard error(PCSE), common correlated effect mean group(CCEMG), and Dumitrescu Hurlin causality approaches. Both population growth and drinking water are used as controlled variables. The outcomes establish strong cointegration among all the variables of interest. According to the results of CCEMG test, economic growth exerts short-term environmental degradation but has long-term environmental benefits in Eastern Europe;and population growth and drinking water exert a positive effect on environmental sustainability in both the short-and long-run. The results of Dumitrescu Hurlin causality test indicate that environmental sustainability is unidirectionally affected by economic growth. Based on these outcomes, we suggest the following policies:(1) the EU and OECD should implement member-targeted policies on economic growth and fossil-fuel use towards regulating industrial pollution, water use, and population control;and(2) the EU and OECD member countries should invest in environmental technologies through green research and development(R&D) to transform their dirty industrial processes and ensure productive energy use.

Nesting Orientalisms:Case of Hungary,Its Imaginary Occidentalisation Process,and Inconsistencies

What is the border between Central and Eastern Europe?This is an unanswered question in the literature of contemporary European history and politics.In the modern state system,imaginary boundaries are products of the imagined communities,and these boundaries also cause either to occidentalize or to orientalize the lands due to its top-down/elitist imagination procedure.During the Cold War years,anti-USSR voices are important to see the certain demand for Europeanization among people in today’s Central Europe where there especially had the communist legacy.In general,the ultimate goal is to identify themselves as more western among Central and Eastern European states for the sake of civilizational values of the Enlightenment and to reach today’s contested Neoliberal welfare.This desire causes Nesting Orientalisms,Milica Bakic-Hayden’s concept.Nesting Orientalisms are about re-constructing new Orient in the same region to hierarchizeitself as occidental.Through the process of mapping its location and construction of occidental identity,Hungary defines itself as a part of Central Europe.But what are the legitimated reasons of Hungary to define itself as Central European instead of Eastern Europe?Do these reasons perfectly fit in today’s Central European formulation and stereotype?What are the possible reasons to reject Hungary’s Central European self-definition?Moreover,under the shadow of the discussion on Central Europe vs.Eastern Europe,to what extent does the rise of authoritarianism block ongoing occidentalisation process of Hungary?In this research,I will answer these questions by analyzing modern political history of Hungary by the method of interpretivist process tracing.

中东欧中医孔子学院发展前景及对策——以辽宁中医药大学斯洛伐克中医孔子课堂为例

作为教育对外开放和中外人文交流的前沿机构,中医孔子学院是传播中国语言文化和中医药知识的平台和载体。中东欧地区是“一带一路”的重要节点,地缘政治、经济、文化复杂而敏感。文章以斯洛伐克中医孔子学院为研究对象,通过分析其发展现状、前景与未来策略,旨在加强中医药文化舆情、提升中医专业话语权并讲好中医故事、传播好中国声音。

Sustainability policy considerations for ecosystem management in Central and Eastern Europe

Here I discuss Central and Eastern European(CEE)countries as a region undergoing rapid change,resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union and admission of some of the states into the European Union.These events brought changes in governance and ecosystem management,triggering impacts on land use and biodiversity.What are some of the policy options toward sustainability in the face of these political,governance,and socioeconomic changes?Some policy considerations for ecosystem management and sustainability include taking a social-ecological systems approach to integrate biophysical subsystems and social subsystems;paying attention to institutions relevant to shared resources(commons)management;and using resilience theory to study change and guidance for governance.Documented experience in CEE seems to indicate shortcomings for both the centralized state management option and the purely market-driven option for ecosystem management.If so,a“smart mix”of state regulations,market incentives,and self-governance using local commons institutions may be the most promising policy option to foster ecosystem stewardship at multiple levels from local to international.

Epidemiologic characteristics of Helicobacter pylori infection in southeast Hungary

BACKGROUND Epidemiologic studies have revealed a decrease in the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)infection in Western Europe.AIM To obtain data regarding the prevalence of H.pylori in Csongrád and Békés Counties in Hungary,evaluate the differences in its prevalence between urban and rural areas,and establish factors associated with positive seroprevalence.METHODS One-thousand and one healthy blood donors[male/female:501/500,mean age:40(19–65)years]were enrolled in this study.Subjects were tested for H.pylori IgG antibody positivity via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.Subgroup analysis by age,gender,smoking habits,alcohol consumption,and urban vs nonurban residence was also performed.RESULTS The overall seropositivity of H.pylori was 32%.It was higher in males(34.93%vs 29.2%,P=0.0521)and in rural areas(36.2%vs 27.94%,P=0.0051).Agricultural/industrial workers were more likely to be positive for infection than office workers(38.35%vs 30.11%,P=0.0095)and rural subjects in Békés County than those in Csongrád County(43.36%vs 33.33%,P=0.0015).CONCLUSION Although the prevalence of H.pylori infection decreased in recent decades in Southeast Hungary,it remains high in middle-aged rural populations.Generally accepted risk factors for H.pylori positivity appeared to be valid for the studied population.

Upscaling Illiberalism： Class, Contradiction, and the Rise and Rise of the Populist Right in Post- socialist Central Europe

Recent liberal political science analysis has highlighted media, manipu- lation, and populist political trickery in the apparently sudden rise of the new Right in Europe and the USA. I suggest that a robust engagement with the actual social transformations over which liberalism has presided since 1989 is imperative. Anthropological work on class processes and the rise of neo-nationalist populism in Central and Eastern Europe has been strong in developing a more relational, pro- cessual, and embedded vision. In the current paper, I am looking at the phases and spaces of the rise of iUiberalism as a popular political sensibility in Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, I am interested in its gradual upscaling to the level of the nation state and, through the ＂Visegrad bloc＂ to the EU. I argue that both the emergence and step-by-step upscaling of illiberal political sensibilities are explained by class relational processes and the regionally uneven Polanyi-type ＂counter- movements＂ against liberalizations that they brought forth.

Is a correlation‑based investment strategy beneficial for long‑term international portfolio investors?

Using negative to low-correlated assets to manage short-term portfolio risk is not uncommon among investors,although the long-term benefits of this strategy remain unclear.This study examines the long-term benefits of the correlation strategy for portfolios based on the stock market in Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,the Middle East and North Africa,and Latin America from 2000 to 2016.Our strategy is as follows.We develop five portfolios based on the average unconditional correlation between domestic and foreign assets from 2000 to 2016.This yields five regional portfolios based on low to high correlations.In the presence of selected economic and financial conditions,long-term diversification gains for each regional portfolio are evaluated using a panel cointegration-based testing method.Consistent across all portfolios and regions,our key cointegration results suggest that selecting a low-correlated portfolio to maximize diversification gains does not necessarily result in long-term diversification gains.Our empirical method,which also permits the estimation of cointegrating regressions,provides the opportunity to evaluate the impact of oil prices,U.S.stock market fluctuations,and investor sentiments on regional portfolios,as well as to hedge against these fluctuations.Finally,we extend our data to cover the years 2017–2022 and find that our main findings are robust.

小国视角下立陶宛对台政策的转变:原因、途径与影响

近年来,部分中东欧国家对华立场出现倒退,尤其是对台政策发生了转变。立陶宛作为这些国家的典型代表,不仅利用国际舆论诋毁中国,更企图在台湾问题上破坏中国主权,支持台湾当局争取所谓“国际空间”。立陶宛政府一方面以贸易为手段,以攫取经济利益为主要目的,不断加深与台湾当局的实质关系,另一方面,为了提升自身在欧盟内的话语权,博取美国的关注和支持,对中国实施冲突性行为。立陶宛的上述表现与其小国属性有关。鉴于部分中东欧国家与立陶宛具有一定相似性,其对台政策的变化不但会破坏中欧关系发展,还有可能造成负面的“示范效应”,因此必须给予足够的重视和防范。

中欧班列市场化经营机制与中国-中东欧国家贸易发展研究

中欧班列作为共建“一带一路”的拳头产品,促进了中国-中东欧国家的经贸发展。遵循市场规律是高质量共建“一带一路”的重要原则,也是中欧班列进一步推动中国-中东欧贸易合作的必然趋势。运用产业组织理论,按企业行为-市场绩效-市场结构双向决定的思路,梳理了途径中东欧或目的地为中东欧的中欧班列发展现状,发现市场化经营机制激发了中欧班列建设的内在动力,并进一步促进了中国-中东欧国家的贸易发展。中欧班列市场机制建设将助推更多中国企业实施“走出去战略”,促进中国-中东欧国家信息、数字经济和绿色能源等产业进一步加强合作,同时还能有效促进中欧班列运行相关服务业如扩大跨境资金清结算业务。与此同时,这些成果将进一步深化中欧班列市场机制。

中东欧公路隧道反光涂层关键施工技术

隧道反光涂层是隧道附属结构的一个重要组成部分,其施工质量对隧道的运营质量有重要影响。中东欧地区在欧洲标准体系下隧道反光涂层的施工工艺与国内差别较大,以黑山南北高速公路隧道反光涂层施工为例,从施工材料、表面处理、反光涂层施工、质量验收、易出现质量问题等方面进行阐述,总结出一套适合中东欧高速公路施工理念的隧道反光涂层施工技术。研究结果表明,基面湿度、环境温度、基面质量为关键条件因素,加强检测和工序验收尤为重要。

中东欧贸易便利化空间差异对宁波贸易流量的影响

中国—中东欧国家合作已进入新时代,为进一步扩大宁波与中东欧国家的贸易流量,提升贸易便利化水平至关重要。本文通过计算中东欧各国的贸易便利化指数,观察了中东欧国家贸易便利化水平的时间差异和空间差异,并利用空间计量的方法考察了贸易便利化水平的差异对贸易流量的影响和贸易便利化的空间外溢效应。结果表明:中东欧国家与宁波双边贸易流量在空间上正相关,宁波与中东欧国家间的双边贸易流量存在显著正向溢出效应。本文提出:通过减少贸易壁垒、持续打造区域贸易新平台、加快建设经贸合作示范区,抢占先机,将宁波打造成为长三角乃至全国贸易便利化的典范,在空间上实现中东欧贸易便利化水平的提升,从而带动宁波与中东欧国家贸易流量的增长。

风险偏好、资产专用性与中东欧小国对华政策选择——以立陶宛、塞尔维亚、匈牙利为例

国际关系史上,小国一般会选择追随某一强国或加入某一阵营,但在百年变局及大国关系深刻调整的今天,中东欧小国无法简单地在中美之间选边站,而是基于风险偏好和大国的资产专用性调整外交政策。当小国属于风险寻求且大国的资产专用性较弱时会选择制衡;当小国属于风险回避且大国的资产专用性较强时会选择追随;当小国属于风险寻求且大国的资产专用性较强时会选择对冲。本文以立陶宛、塞尔维亚、匈牙利三个中东欧国家对华政策的调整为案例进行检验,验证了研究假设。

中部、东北地区人口老龄化城乡倒置的现象差异研究

研究通过测算泰尔指数,对我国中部地区和东北地区2000年—2020年人口老龄化城乡倒置的时空演变进行比较研究。结果表明,我国中部地区人口老龄化城乡倒置程度超过全国水平,而东北地区则低于全国水平;中部地区的城乡倒置格局向北转移性发展,而东北地区的倒置重心始终位于南部,并呈现由南向北扩散的趋势;城乡倒置的差异主要体现为区域间差异,其中东北地区的差异大于中部地区。因此,应考虑建立合理有效的社会保障体系应对老龄化现象,在老龄化尚不严重的地区构建科学的老年产业体系;同时坚持完善城乡社会养老保险制度,加大对城乡最低生活保障的投入力度,以更好应对我国未来人口老龄化和城乡倒置的趋势,促进城乡协调发展。

基于引力模型的林产品双边贸易潜力研究——以中国—中东欧沿线国家为例

基于2005~2014年间中国与中东欧国家林产品双边贸易的面板数据,运用贸易引力模型对中国与中东欧沿线国家林产品双边贸易的影响因素及贸易潜力进行研究。结果表明:两国的经济规模和人均森林资源面积差异对双边贸易额有正向影响;两国之间的距离和"16+1"总理会晤机制的建立有负向的影响;两国的人口规模和金融危机没有显著性影响。中国与罗马尼亚、捷克等国家林产品贸易过度,与波兰、匈牙利等国家林产品贸易不足。因此,针对不同的中东欧国家应有相应的林业政策,加速推进"一带一路"进程,加快建设中国与中东欧国家的铁路基础设施。

体育全球化的文化反思

体育全球化的实质是欧美化。奥林匹克是当今体育思想、组织制度、内容形式的集大成者 ,欧美中心主义表现得淋漓尽致 ,其特征是“输出”意识强烈、排他性、强化认同。欧美中心主义的体育全球化与人类的理想是相冲突的。在新的世纪 ,体育全球化是不可阻挡的潮流 ,但体育全球化必须以文化的差异为基点 ,充分认识世界体育发展主体的多元性。

中东欧地区地质矿产特征及找矿潜力

中东欧地区地处欧洲大陆的东部,与欧洲大陆一起经历了长期的地质演化过程。该区从北向南依次跨越了东欧地台西南端、加里东褶皱带和海西褶皱带东部及阿尔卑斯褶皱带大部,总体上显示了由北向南逐渐变年轻的地质演化历史。该区金属矿产资源较为丰富,但分布不均匀。主要金属矿产有Cu、Pb、Zn、Au、Ag等,集中产在北部波兰和南部保加利亚、罗马尼亚;矿床类型主要是斑岩型、浅成低温热液型、密西西比河谷型(MVT)、含铜页岩型等。该区可划分出4个成矿带,分别为内喀尔巴阡山—阿尔卑斯斑岩型和浅成低温热液型Cu-Pb-Zn-Au-Ag成矿带、塞尔维亚—马其顿—希腊罗多彼斑岩型Cu-Au和热液脉型Pb-Zn成矿带、ABTS(Apuseni-Banat-Timok-Srednogorie)斑岩型和浅成低温热液型Cu-Au成矿带、波兰南部MVT型和含铜页岩型Pb-Zn-Cu成矿带。前3个成矿带位于阿尔卑斯—巴尔干—喀尔巴阡山脉—蒂娜地区,属于特提斯成矿域地中海成矿省的一部分,与俯冲、碰撞造山有关;而第4个成矿带属于劳亚成矿域欧洲成矿省的一部分,与盆地伸展有关。在各成矿带内又可划分出若干个矿集区。中东欧地区金属矿床主要产于其南部阿尔卑斯造山带,具有寻找大型斑岩型铜矿床及相关伴生矿产的较大潜力。

金融危机下中东欧转型模式再评估

新兴市场国家经济与政治体制转型是转型问题研究的焦点,而中东欧国家的转型模式也作为一个范例持续得到来自理论和实证研究上的关注。本研究以金融危机发生、演化为背景,旨在检测金融危机背景下中东欧国家的整体经济表现与金融市场表现,并通过分析对国际学术界公认的"转型优等生"中东欧国家的转型模式进行再评估和反思。

中东欧十六国林业投资环境比较分析

在国家"一带一路"倡议的指导下,中东欧国家越来越成为林业合作交流、投资和贸易合作的重要伙伴。目前文献对中东欧国家投资环境的分析几乎没有,更缺少对林业投资环境的分析。选取27个指标,通过相关分析、模糊聚类分析、因子分析等方法对中东欧16国的林业投资环境进行综合评价。认为16个国家的林业投资环境可以分为4个类别,分析结果与其地理位置紧密相关。通过建立综合评价模型,得出16个国家林业投资的综合排序,爱沙尼亚的综合得分最高;其次是拉脱维亚、捷克、立陶宛等;而波黑的得分最低。以上分析结果为中国与中东欧国家林业合作战略提供技术支撑,为中国企业与中东欧16国经贸合作提供参考。

“一带一路”背景下中国与中东欧农产品贸易特征研究

利用UN Comtrade数据库的数据,按照中国农业部农产品贸易统计分类标准,从双边贸易规模及结构、比较优势、互补性、增长潜力、产业内贸易程度以及在世界市场中的竞争程度等多重角度,运用相关统计指标对1995~2015年中国与中东欧国家之间农产品贸易特征进行了实证分析。研究表明:中国-中东欧农产品贸易规模增长迅速,其中,中国对中东欧出口农产品结构集聚化,出口市场结构多元化;双方向对方市场出口的农产品整体比较优势不足,但由于优势产品类别差异较大,双方农产品贸易仍存在较强的互补性,且增长潜力巨大;双边农产品贸易以产业间贸易为主,产业内贸易为辅,其中水平型产业内贸易是后者增量的主要来源;在世界农产品市场中,双方在出口产品结构方面竞争激烈,但程度趋缓,而在出口市场结构方面尚不存在激烈竞争。