Since the second half of 2015,the price of pork has come into a new round of rising cycle,especially from January to April of 2016,pork prices continued rising.Excessive rising of pork prices sparks people’s concern ...Since the second half of 2015,the price of pork has come into a new round of rising cycle,especially from January to April of 2016,pork prices continued rising.Excessive rising of pork prices sparks people’s concern about CPI rising.It is of practical significance to discussing the fluctuation cycle of pork price and its relationship with CPI.In this context,we do empirical research on pork cycle and price fluctuations with CPI relationships.From January 2000 to March 2016,based on a total of 195 samples,using Eviews6.0 metrology software,we draw the following conclusions:fluctuations in the price of pork did Granger cause CPI,the impact of pork price fluctuations on the CPI was significant and the effect significantly was enhanced after certain lag;CPI did not Granger cause pork price fluctuations,CPI had no significant effect on the price of pork;pork price was affected by its own large contribution,and there was a certain time lag effect of the impact;CPI had a positive impact on itself,for its contribution is relatively large.Finally we put forward relative strategies.展开更多
In order to research the fluctuation law of price of pork in Beijing City and determine its fluctuation cycle,we use level indicator analysis,speed indicator analysis,the coefficient of variation,the seasonal adjustme...In order to research the fluctuation law of price of pork in Beijing City and determine its fluctuation cycle,we use level indicator analysis,speed indicator analysis,the coefficient of variation,the seasonal adjustment model and the HP filter method,to analyze the data on the market price of pork in 8 wholesale markets in Beijing City during the period 2002-2011.The results show that the annual price of pork in wholesale markets in Beijing City shows a gradual upward trend;during the period 2002-2011,the price of pork in Beijing City experienced three full fluctuation cycle,and each fluctuation cycle was roughly 38 months;the price of pork within the year shows a trend of " one trough,one crest",and the interval of high prices is mainly concentrated in June-december;the amount of pork for sale within the year is basically inversely correlated with the price.Therefore,we should strengthen the monitoring of pig production information and market information,to ensure the sufficient supply of pork,and stabilize the market price of pork.In addition,according to the variation law of the market price of pork,improving the purchasing,storage and allocation work mechanism of the reserve meat is also necessary to stabilizing the market price of pork.展开更多
文摘Since the second half of 2015,the price of pork has come into a new round of rising cycle,especially from January to April of 2016,pork prices continued rising.Excessive rising of pork prices sparks people’s concern about CPI rising.It is of practical significance to discussing the fluctuation cycle of pork price and its relationship with CPI.In this context,we do empirical research on pork cycle and price fluctuations with CPI relationships.From January 2000 to March 2016,based on a total of 195 samples,using Eviews6.0 metrology software,we draw the following conclusions:fluctuations in the price of pork did Granger cause CPI,the impact of pork price fluctuations on the CPI was significant and the effect significantly was enhanced after certain lag;CPI did not Granger cause pork price fluctuations,CPI had no significant effect on the price of pork;pork price was affected by its own large contribution,and there was a certain time lag effect of the impact;CPI had a positive impact on itself,for its contribution is relatively large.Finally we put forward relative strategies.
基金Supported by National Key Technology R&D Program in the "Eleventh Five-Year" Planning Period (2009BADA9B05)
文摘In order to research the fluctuation law of price of pork in Beijing City and determine its fluctuation cycle,we use level indicator analysis,speed indicator analysis,the coefficient of variation,the seasonal adjustment model and the HP filter method,to analyze the data on the market price of pork in 8 wholesale markets in Beijing City during the period 2002-2011.The results show that the annual price of pork in wholesale markets in Beijing City shows a gradual upward trend;during the period 2002-2011,the price of pork in Beijing City experienced three full fluctuation cycle,and each fluctuation cycle was roughly 38 months;the price of pork within the year shows a trend of " one trough,one crest",and the interval of high prices is mainly concentrated in June-december;the amount of pork for sale within the year is basically inversely correlated with the price.Therefore,we should strengthen the monitoring of pig production information and market information,to ensure the sufficient supply of pork,and stabilize the market price of pork.In addition,according to the variation law of the market price of pork,improving the purchasing,storage and allocation work mechanism of the reserve meat is also necessary to stabilizing the market price of pork.