Establishment of tensile failure induced sanding onset prediction model for cased-perforated gas wells

Sand production is a challenging issue in upstream oil and gas industry,causing operational and safety problems.Therefore,before drilling the wells,it is essential to predict and evaluate sanding onset of the wells.In this paper,new poroelastoplastic stress solutions around the perforation tunnel and tip based on the Mohr-Coulomb criterion are presented firstly.Based on the stress models,a tensile failure induced sanding onset prediction model for cased-perforated gas wells is derived.Then the analytical model is applied to field data to verify its applicability.The results from the perforation tip tensile failure induced sanding model are very close to field data.Therefore,this model is recommended for forecasting the critical conditions of sand production analysis.Such predictions are necessary for providing technical support for sand control decision-making and predicting the production condition at which sanding onset occurs.