Examination of the profitability of technical analysis based on moving average strategies in BRICS

In this paper,we investigated the profitability of technical analysis as applied to the stock markets of the BRICS member nations.In addition,we searched for evidence that technical analysis and fundamental analysis can complement each other in these markets.To implement this research,we created a comprehensive portfolio containing the assets traded in the markets of each BRICS member.We developed an automated trading system that simulated transactions in this portfolio using technical analysis techniques.Our assessment updated the findings of previous research by including more recent data and adding South Africa,the latest member included in BRICS.Our results showed that the returns obtained by the automated system,on average,exceeded the value invested.There were groups of assets from each country that performed well above the portfolio average,surpassing the returns obtained using a buy and hold strategy.The returns from the sample portfolio were very strong in Russia and India.We also found that technical analysis can help fundamental analysis identify the most dynamic companies in the stock market.

Scenario-based approach for project portfolio selection in army engineering and manufacturing development

The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.

Safety of Dams： A Pathological Approach of Qualitative and Quantitative Risks

Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was found in the technical literature, methods and tools capable of measuring the exposure value by means of indicators. In the study, the highlights were 12 methods of qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative risk analysis, representing an overview of risk analysis methods available in the literature with potential use in dams, that it has been done into electronic spreadsheets. The case study is performed on a sample of concrete dam and earth/rockfill built and operated by Eletrobr^s Furnas Company, supported by documentary research, projects, field inspections and interviews with experts. After applying the methods and the analysis thereof, has been prepared the Eletrobras Fumas dam risk analysis method which is characterized by adapting the criteria analyzed to the reality of the company＇s dams and it was also performed the portfolio risk analysis of 18 dams. In spite of the variety and subjectivity of qualitative and semiquantitative methods, the results show that they tend to converge on the analysis of dam based on risk. The application methodology demonstrates the feasibility assessment stage, covering the preliminary analysis for portfolio dams, followed by formal and individual risk analyzes for the most critical structures. These results confirm the applicability of risk analysis techniques, contributing to the consolidation of this toot as fundamental in the dam safety.

The Research and Application of the Strategic Analysisand Selection of R&D Project

On the basis of important role of science and technology in economic development, thisarticle systematically studies and discusses strategic evaluation techniques and methods of R&D projectfrom management sector’s angles. Firstly, it summarizes the existing R&D project evaluation methods.Then the ’three step’ method of R&D project evaluation is presented, that is (1) the benefit and successprobability of R&D project are evaluated based on the fuzzy influence diagram, (2) the portfolio analysisin the structure of R&D project is studied. (3) ’0-1’ model is used for project selection. The methodcan combine qualitative analysis with quantitative calculation, and describe the relationship betweenfactors that influence project’s result, thus improve the decision level of R&D project evaluation andselection. Finally, by means of practical application, the effectiveness and feasibility of the method areverified.

Optimal algorithms and intuitive explanations for Markowitz's portfolio selection model and Sharpe's ratio with no short-selling

Most of the previous researches about portfolio analysis focus on short-selling. In fact, no short-selling is also important because short-selling is not allowed in stock markets of some countries. This paper gives the sufficient and necessary conditions and proposes an optimal algorithm for Markowitz’s mean-variance models and Sharpe’s ratio with no short-selling. The optimal algorithm makes it easier to obtain the efficient frontiers with no short-selling.