The UK is the most important partner of the EU in terms of economic and other fields due to the geographical proximity.It was one of the largest economies in the EU and its per capita income is higher than the EU aver...The UK is the most important partner of the EU in terms of economic and other fields due to the geographical proximity.It was one of the largest economies in the EU and its per capita income is higher than the EU average,so it is a net contributor to the EU.With UKs membership of the EU ended on 31 January 2019,there are concerns that the Brexit may have a significant impact on the EU,resulting in social,economic,political,and institutional changes,etc.in EU.While the impact of Brexit on the UK has always been the subject of considerable scholarly interest in recent years,there is relatively little literature on the impact of Brexit on the EU.This paper focuses on the evaluation of the impact of Brexit on the EU economy and other relevant aspects along three dimensions:GDP,PPP,Quarterly GDP growth.Employing powerful quantitative analysis technology that includes vector autoregression model,multivariate time series model with intervention variables,and autoregression integrated moving average,this paper obtains the important and novel evidence about the potential impact of Brexit on the EU economy,pointing out that Brexit is of far-reaching significance to the EU.This analysis uses several statistical models to screen out several key influencing factors,which can be used to predict the total GDP of EU in the next five years.The results show that EU economy will react negatively to"no-deal"Brexit,and its growth rate of economy will slow down significantly in next 5 years.Finally,we put forward relevant policy suggestions on how to deal with the negative impact of Brexit on EU.展开更多
This paper assumes as a focal point the concept that the ＂post-Brexit＂ may represent a change of era for European and global financial service and particularly for capital market sector. The change of era produces n...This paper assumes as a focal point the concept that the ＂post-Brexit＂ may represent a change of era for European and global financial service and particularly for capital market sector. The change of era produces new ＂global systemic interrelation＂ in which financial globalization, governance and regulation will give place to new, largely unknown complexities. In general, the different interests and immediate priorities of euro and non-euro countries, coupled with a need for prompt and, at times, politically sensitive action, have had the result of a greater fragmentation or a differentiated integration in EU governance in the financial sector. On this assumption, we may say that the post-Brexit scenario is in some way preceded by a series of ＂fractures＂ in European governance. The direct effect of the post-Brexit era is that UK regulated financial entities will still need ＂passporting＂ across the EU single market： UK is going to vest the role of third party country, which will require an ＂equivalence regime＂ similar to the ＂substituted compliance＂ used in the same direction by US regulators. At the same time, while an equivalence regime may work in principle to deal cross-border issues at the global level, in the long term, it may be an instrument for a ＂battle of ideas＂ in the new political arena of global financial governance.展开更多
基金by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11861042)the China Statistical Research Project(No.2020LZ25).
文摘The UK is the most important partner of the EU in terms of economic and other fields due to the geographical proximity.It was one of the largest economies in the EU and its per capita income is higher than the EU average,so it is a net contributor to the EU.With UKs membership of the EU ended on 31 January 2019,there are concerns that the Brexit may have a significant impact on the EU,resulting in social,economic,political,and institutional changes,etc.in EU.While the impact of Brexit on the UK has always been the subject of considerable scholarly interest in recent years,there is relatively little literature on the impact of Brexit on the EU.This paper focuses on the evaluation of the impact of Brexit on the EU economy and other relevant aspects along three dimensions:GDP,PPP,Quarterly GDP growth.Employing powerful quantitative analysis technology that includes vector autoregression model,multivariate time series model with intervention variables,and autoregression integrated moving average,this paper obtains the important and novel evidence about the potential impact of Brexit on the EU economy,pointing out that Brexit is of far-reaching significance to the EU.This analysis uses several statistical models to screen out several key influencing factors,which can be used to predict the total GDP of EU in the next five years.The results show that EU economy will react negatively to"no-deal"Brexit,and its growth rate of economy will slow down significantly in next 5 years.Finally,we put forward relevant policy suggestions on how to deal with the negative impact of Brexit on EU.
文摘This paper assumes as a focal point the concept that the ＂post-Brexit＂ may represent a change of era for European and global financial service and particularly for capital market sector. The change of era produces new ＂global systemic interrelation＂ in which financial globalization, governance and regulation will give place to new, largely unknown complexities. In general, the different interests and immediate priorities of euro and non-euro countries, coupled with a need for prompt and, at times, politically sensitive action, have had the result of a greater fragmentation or a differentiated integration in EU governance in the financial sector. On this assumption, we may say that the post-Brexit scenario is in some way preceded by a series of ＂fractures＂ in European governance. The direct effect of the post-Brexit era is that UK regulated financial entities will still need ＂passporting＂ across the EU single market： UK is going to vest the role of third party country, which will require an ＂equivalence regime＂ similar to the ＂substituted compliance＂ used in the same direction by US regulators. At the same time, while an equivalence regime may work in principle to deal cross-border issues at the global level, in the long term, it may be an instrument for a ＂battle of ideas＂ in the new political arena of global financial governance.
