The fact that China is facing the challenge of aging population has led to debates about whether the government should raise the retirement age.The current pension system in China is characterized by the collection of...The fact that China is facing the challenge of aging population has led to debates about whether the government should raise the retirement age.The current pension system in China is characterized by the collection of contributions on payment and adopts the defined benefit(DB)plan.Considering the welfare effects of intergenerational support,this paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate how postponing retirement would affect the TFP and the welfare of the elderly.Utilizing realistic parameters,our simulation finds that raising the retirement age will benefit the welfare of the elderly.This conclusion remains robust after a sensitivity analysis with respect to core parameters,the average age of the working population,and the pension system.However,opinion polls have found that most people oppose delaying retirement.This stems from the absence of pension transfer payments and pension system inequalities.The policy implications of this paper are twofold:Firstly,the government should convince the public about the benefits of delaying retirement;secondly,it is necessary to introduce supportive policies facilitating the implementation of delayed retirement(e.g.increasing the replacement rate of pensions or implementing a healthy aging strategy),and the retirement policy should be differentiated for people from various socio-economic backgrounds.展开更多
This paper calculates the employment substitutability between young workforce and ageing workforce using Welch index. The result shows that the employment substitutability between these two groups of people is rather ...This paper calculates the employment substitutability between young workforce and ageing workforce using Welch index. The result shows that the employment substitutability between these two groups of people is rather poor. Furthermore, the result of our dynamic panel regression analysis indicates that an increase in the share of ageing workforce is conducive to youth employment. Such a positive effect mainly derives from more educated ageing workforce, while the increase of less educated ageing workforce has little effect on youth employment.展开更多
This paper investigates the effects of postponing retirement on economic growth in an aging society by using the infinite overlapping generations model constructed by Blanchard (1985) in a simple endogenous growth fra...This paper investigates the effects of postponing retirement on economic growth in an aging society by using the infinite overlapping generations model constructed by Blanchard (1985) in a simple endogenous growth framework.It shows that postponing retirement may decelerate economic growth.展开更多
基金supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation Program of the Ministry of Education“Simulation of the Economic Growth Shocks from the Retirement of Baby Boomers of the 1960s and Countermeasures”(Grant No.19YJC790167).
文摘The fact that China is facing the challenge of aging population has led to debates about whether the government should raise the retirement age.The current pension system in China is characterized by the collection of contributions on payment and adopts the defined benefit(DB)plan.Considering the welfare effects of intergenerational support,this paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate how postponing retirement would affect the TFP and the welfare of the elderly.Utilizing realistic parameters,our simulation finds that raising the retirement age will benefit the welfare of the elderly.This conclusion remains robust after a sensitivity analysis with respect to core parameters,the average age of the working population,and the pension system.However,opinion polls have found that most people oppose delaying retirement.This stems from the absence of pension transfer payments and pension system inequalities.The policy implications of this paper are twofold:Firstly,the government should convince the public about the benefits of delaying retirement;secondly,it is necessary to introduce supportive policies facilitating the implementation of delayed retirement(e.g.increasing the replacement rate of pensions or implementing a healthy aging strategy),and the retirement policy should be differentiated for people from various socio-economic backgrounds.
文摘This paper calculates the employment substitutability between young workforce and ageing workforce using Welch index. The result shows that the employment substitutability between these two groups of people is rather poor. Furthermore, the result of our dynamic panel regression analysis indicates that an increase in the share of ageing workforce is conducive to youth employment. Such a positive effect mainly derives from more educated ageing workforce, while the increase of less educated ageing workforce has little effect on youth employment.
文摘This paper investigates the effects of postponing retirement on economic growth in an aging society by using the infinite overlapping generations model constructed by Blanchard (1985) in a simple endogenous growth framework.It shows that postponing retirement may decelerate economic growth.
