Supply-Side Structural Reforms and China's Potential Economic Growth Rate

This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.

Setting China’s Growth Target Based on the Potential Growth Rate

Different from other methodologies for the forecasting of China＇s economic growth rate, this paper forecast of future potential growth rates from the end of China＇s demographic dividends, and then identified it as a growth target. Official promulgation of non-binding targets will guide social expectation, assist in government policy-making, boost confidence in consumers, and provide guidance for producers and investors. Based on our estimation results, we suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, a GDP growth target between 6. 5% and 7% would be appropriate.

Transition from Demographic Dividend to Reform Dividend:——Simulation of China's Potential Growth Rate

Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.

China’s Potential Economic Growths during 2015-2025 under Different Scenarios~

China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.

FINGERNAIL GROWTH RATE IN A NORMAL CHINESE POPULATION

Objective To investigate fingernail growth rate (FNGR) role in the physiological or pathological status of the fingernails in normal Chinese population. Methods The FNGR was measured with vernier caliper. The data of 1 595 fingernails from 208 normal Chinese subjects (including 96 men and 112 women; age ranging from 14 to 78 years) were analyzed. Results The average FNGR was (0.104±0.027) mm per day. Higher growth rates were observed in males than in females, in the young individuals than in the old individuals, in summer than in winter, and in the right hand than in the left hand, respectively. The FNGR differed among fingernails and decreased in order of precedence: middle fingernails, index fingernails or ring fingernails, thumb and little fingernails. Conclusion FNGR was significantly associated with age, gender and temperature. Different fingernail grew at an individual speed.

中国人口变化趋势及经济潜在增长率——兼论延迟退休的影响

基于生产函数法的估测结果显示,2035年之前中国潜在经济增长率将处于下行趋势,2021—2025年平均为5.2%左右,2026—2030年平均为5.1%左右,2031—2035年平均为4.7%左右。潜在经济增长率下降的主要因素是,未来人口抚养比上升,导致固定资本形成率下降,进而固定资本存量增速放缓。未来就业人口数量减少,对潜在经济增长率有不利影响,但人力资本积累能在一定程度上弥补。情形分析结果显示,2035年之前人口出生率水平与经济潜在增长率呈相反关系,主要原因是,新出生人口在2035年前尚无法进入劳动力市场,反而会通过影响固定资本增速拖累经济潜在增长率。延迟退休对2025—2035年的经济增长有积极影响,以2024年9月13日公布的方案测算,年均提高潜在增长率约0.03个百分点。

激发地方经济活力 推动经济持续向好——中国宏观经济形势分析与2024年下半年展望

当前中国出现了实际经济增速低于潜在增速的现象,集中表现为物价低迷、消费者信心和企业景气度不足、失业率回落仍不明显。出现这些现象,除房地产市场低迷和消费需求不振外,一个关键的因素是在化债压力下地方政府支出过快缩减,这不仅导致政府部门去除对债务还本付息支出后的实际需求显著下降,更是挤压了部分民营企业的资金。为实现2035年发展目标,必须进一步全面深化改革,增强忧患意识,全力避免因经济长期处于潜在增速之下运行而导致的潜在经济增速进一步下行的风险。同时,需要重新认识国债的性质以及国债在中国式现代化进程中的作用,大规模增发国债置换地方债,以此激发地方经济发展活力,并引导地方政府从重视投资与生产转向重视消费与居民收入,以高质量发展推动实现中国式现代化。

不同品种春小麦生长生理指标及产量对水分响应研究

[目的]系统研究不同程度间歇性干旱对春小麦生长生理及产量的影响。[方法]通过位于甘肃武威的大田试验,以春小麦“陇春41号”和“永良4号”为研究对象,系统研究拔节期和灌浆期不同程度间歇性干旱对春小麦生长生理及产量的影响。在春小麦拔节期、灌浆期分别设置灌水量为充分灌溉对照组的65%、80%的亏水处理,即:W1(拔节期65%/灌浆期65%)、W2(拔节期80%/灌浆期65%)、W3(拔节期65%/灌浆期80%)、W4(拔节期80%/灌浆期80%)、W5(充分灌溉对照组)。分析不同处理下春小麦生长指标、产量、叶片光合参数及叶绿素荧光动力学参数对水分的响应规律。[结果]拔节期和灌浆期水分亏缺会对春小麦株高、叶面积指数、干物质积累量、净光合速率、蒸腾速率及光合电子传递速率产生显著负面影响,指标随灌水量减少而降低;抽穗期复水(恢复充分灌溉)后,“陇春41号”LAI得到了明显恢复,复水对春小麦叶绿素量、光合电子传递速率以及蒸腾速率的恢复有显著积极作用;产量随水分亏缺程度的加剧而减小,“陇春41号”整体产量高于“永良4号”,“陇春41号”W4处理下产量与W5处理无显著差异。[结论]考虑节水高产,本文推荐最优灌溉制度为W4处理(拔节期80%/灌浆期80%),推荐种植品种为“陇春41号”。

China’s Proactive Fiscal Policy

In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.

How Should China Handle Trade-offs between Growth and Inflation?

This article first presents an analysis of the two most important macro variables: inflation and growth. In respect to inflation that faces a daunting landscape at the present time, China can still hold the inflation rate at an appropriate level in 2008. In consideration to a world economic slowdown and primary goods price trends as well as domestic price hikes and production overcapacity, inflation should be able to be kept in check in 2008. In regards to growth, this article employs the Phillips curve equation to arrive at a potential growth rate of 9.4% for China in 2008. Over the next couple of decades, however, the potential growth rate is projected to decline. Subsequently, this article discusses the challenges facing the tightening monetary policy: the trade-off between growth and inflation, the quagmire of liquidity control, the different interest rate movement episodes of China and the Unites States at different stages of economic cycles, and the temporary expediency nature of taming inflation through currency appreciation. Nevertheless, monetary policy still has a positive role to play and China should remain steadfast in pursuing monetary austerity policies. Last but not least, the article presents an outlook for the future.

The New Normal from the Perspective of Macro History and Grand Logic of China's Economic Development

This paper attempts to explain the "new normal" of China's economic development put forward by XI Jinping, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, from three perspectives. First, as the new normal is a natural phase of long-term development in the country's renaissance, recognition of it helps policy-making to hold a historical perspective and maintain a patience in the face of growth slowdown. Second, the new normal as the logic of China's economic development underlines the necessity and urgency of transforming growth patterns and growth drivers. Third, different from the "new mediocre" of the world economy, the new normal reveals great potentials of sustainable growth of the Chinese economy that must be tapped through structural reforms.

基于菌丝生长温度评价64种金针菇的适温条件

以64株金针菇菌株为试验材料,通过比较菌丝在不同培养温度下的生长情况、生长速度,探讨培养温度对菌丝生长发育的影响,筛选高温型菌株、低温型菌株和广温型菌株。同时利用聚类热图划分类群,探明不同类群金针菇菌株的亲缘关系。试验结果表明,金针菇菌株生长情况与生长速度相关性较小,初步筛选出低温型菌株白金,高温型、广温型菌株白金针2号。64株金针菇菌株通过聚类热图划分为5大类,白金针2号与其他菌株具有较远的亲缘关系,可以优先选为金针菇杂交育种亲本。

重振增长 释放活力——2023—2027年中国经济发展展望

“人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平”是中国2035年发展总体目标之一,实现这一目标需要中国将经济增速长期保持在合理区间。当前,国民经济仍然承受着较大的下行压力,中国在消费、地方政府债务、房地产市场、外需等方面存在的八大问题仍然需要关注。如能充分发挥中国的高国民储蓄率、高质量人力资源、统一大市场等九大潜力点,中国经济仍将释放出巨大的增长潜力。通过综合有效施策,重振增长,释放活力,中国长期经济增速有望保持在合理区间,为2035年实现达到中等发达国家水平的发展总体目标打好基础。

正火工艺处理的EH36船板钢疲劳裂纹扩展行为和断裂韧性

采用电子背散射衍射(EBSD)和扫描电镜(SEM)分析了正火工艺处理的EH36船板钢织构、再结晶和疲劳断口。并通过拉伸试验、疲劳裂纹扩展速率试验、疲劳断裂韧性试验及数值模拟等研究了正火工艺处理的EH36船板钢的疲劳裂纹扩展行为、疲劳断裂机理以及外载和应力比对应力强度因子幅值的影响。结果表明:EH36船板钢具有较强的{110}和{111}塑性织构成分,平均晶粒尺寸为8.2μm,变形晶粒所占比例为4.1%,伸长率为33.3%。通过双对数线性拟合得到应力比为0.03和0.1下的疲劳裂纹扩展寿命预测公式分别为da/dN=1.07×10^(-9)(ΔK)^(3.49)和da/dN=1.96×10^(-9)(ΔK)^(3.35)。通过J积分法计算出正火处理的EH36船板钢的疲劳断裂韧性K_(J0.2BL(30))为387 MPa·m^(1/2)。试验钢的疲劳断裂机制是解理穿晶断裂和微孔生长聚合断裂的混合断裂机制。多参数模拟表明在最大外载一定时,相同疲劳裂纹长度下的应力强度因子幅值随着应力比的增加而减小;在疲劳裂纹长度与标准紧凑拉伸试样的长度比值为0.62时,可作为试验钢即将进入瞬断区的判据。

基于正态分布的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测方法

由于常规的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测方法存在过度保守和缺乏合理性的问题,分析了内检测数据中系统测量误差和随机误差的来源和特点,确定了内检测数据调整方法。基于正态分布原理建立了管道缺陷生长速率计算模型,采用95%上限分位数对应的生长速率预测含缺陷管道的剩余寿命,该方法同时考虑了维修计划的保守性和合理性。结合典型工程案例对剩余寿命预测结果进行对比分析,发现改进后的剩余寿命预测方法有助于建立更加科学合理的维护响应策略,提升管道运营效率。

Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China

As a result of the shrinking working age population （aged 15 to 59 years）, all factors that have driven China＇s rapid economic growth over the past 30years tend to diminish from 2010. The present paper estimates the average annual growth rate of potential output to be 7.2percent over the 12th Five-year Plan period and 6.1 percent over the 13th Five-year Plan period. Future sustainable growth requires furthering economic reform in related areas to enhance potential growth. This paper simulates two scenarios in which both an increase in labor force participation and improvement in total factor productivity can significantly enhance the potential GDP growth rate. Relevant policy implications are discussed.

碳达峰进程对我国潜在经济增长率的影响

2030年前实现碳达峰,将对我国能源生产消费乃至经济增长产生重要影响。本文运用多种方法比较,通过设定高、中、低三种碳排放情景,建立了包含碳排放因素的状态空间模型,并用以研究我国潜在经济增长率和各要素贡献率。研究结果发现,近20年,我国潜在经济增长率为8.8%,碳排放产出弹性为17.2%,对经济增长的拉动为0.84个百分点,对经济增长的贡献度为9.6%。在此基础上,本文对2021—2030年潜在经济增长率进行了预测,在高、中、低碳排放场景下,我国经济潜在平均增速分别为5.18%、5.10%和5.01%。根据趋势外推结果,我国在2035年能实现gDP比2020年翻一番的经济发展目标。考虑到碳排放强度控制目标与固定资本形成的相关性,在不同碳付费配额、不同碳排放贡献、不同资本产出弹性的情况下,将对潜在经济增长率造成不同影响。根据以上结论,本文从低碳战略转型、碳减排技术、碳排放权交易市场建设等角度,提出了进一步提高我国潜在经济增长率的政策建议。

“十四五”后三年中国经济走势展望

“十四五”前两年,我国经济在国际政治动荡加剧、疫情持续冲击、全球产业链供应链调整等严峻复杂环境下,承压运行。展望2023—2025年,我国经济仍面临地缘政治角力加剧、世界经济下行风险、外贸环境变化、国内房地产走势、消费恢复程度和节奏等诸多不确定因素,但我国坚定推进高质量发展,宏观政策协同发力,经济有望向5%~6%的潜在增速水平回归。

促根剂对小麦种子发芽及幼苗生长的影响

吲哚丁酸和褐藻酸寡糖均可促进植物生长。为了筛选出可以促进小麦种子发芽及幼苗生长的促根剂,本试验采用不同浓度吲哚丁酸和褐藻酸寡糖对小麦种子进行浸种催芽,测定不同处理小麦的发芽势、发芽率、株高、根长、植株鲜重与干重。结果表明,综合考虑小麦种子发芽及幼苗生长情况,褐藻酸寡糖最佳处理浓度为150 mg/L,吲哚丁酸最佳处理浓度为50 mg/L。

不同种源和家系交趾黄檀种子活力及其在广西凭祥的引种表现

【目的】分析交趾黄檀种子活力及开展交趾黄檀引种试验,为其在我国南亚热带地区引种栽培提供参考依据。【方法】以从泰国和柬埔寨引入的10个种源25个家系交趾黄檀种子为材料,观测不同种源和家系交趾黄檀种子在广西凭祥的萌发情况;利用培育的实生苗开展引种试验,调查其造林保存率和苗木生长情况,分析不同种源和家系交趾黄檀在我国南亚热带地区的速生性和适应性。【结果】在10个交趾黄檀种源中,柬埔寨暹粒种源的种子活力最弱,发芽率和发芽势仅39.33%和19.33%,显著小于其他9个种源种子的发芽率和发芽势(分别为60.67%～76.95%和49.05%～71.33%)(P<0.05,下同),且这9个种源间差异不显著(P>0.05,下同)。在25个家系中,泰国北柳T-KF-4的发芽率最高,为88.00%,泰国北柳T-KF-6的发芽势最高,为82.00%。2016年造林后,种源的平均保存率为88.17%,家系的平均保存率为89.59%;在10个种源和25个家系中,长势较佳的是泰国彭世洛种源(T-PP)和泰国北柳T-KF-1家系,其苗高和地径分别为1.62 m和2.89 cm及1.70 m和3.09 cm。2017年,2年生交趾黄檀苗木的平均苗高和胸径分别为2.69 m和2.17cm;苗木长势在种源间差异不显著,但在家系间差异显著,其中,泰国巴真T-KI-5的平均苗高达3.15 m,泰国巴真T-KI-7的平均胸径达2.60 cm。【结论】交趾黄檀在广西凭祥引种栽培获得初步成效,且以泰国种源和家系对广西凭祥的适应性更强。