Zhangmu and Gyirong ports under the threat of glacial lake outburst flood

The Himalayas are prone to glacial lake outburst floods,which can pose a severe threat to downstream villages and infrastructure.The Zhangmu and Gyirong land treaty ports are located on the China-Nepal border in the central Himalayas.In recent years,the expansion of glacial lakes has increased the threat of these two port regions.This article describes the results of mapping the glacial lakes larger than 0.01 km^2 in the Zhangmu and Gyirong port regions and analyzes their change.It provides a comprehensive assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes and predicts the development of future glacial lakes.From 1988 to 2019,the glacial lakes in these port regions underwent"expansion",and moraine-dammed lakes show the most significant expansion trend.A total of eleven potentially dangerous glacial lakes are identified based on the assessment criteria and historical outburst events;most expanded by more than 150%from 1988 to 2019,with some by over 500%.The Cirenmaco,a moraine-dammed lake,is extremely prone to overtopping due to ice avalanches or the melting of dead ice in the dam.For other large lakes,such as the Jialongco,Gangxico and Galongco,ice avalanches may likely cause the lakes to burst besides self-destructive failure.The potential dangers of the Youmojianco glacial lakes,including lakes Nos.9,10 and 11,will increase in the future.In addition,the glacier-bed topography model predicts that 113 glacial lakes with a size larger than 0.01 km^2,a total area of 11.88 km2 and a total volume of 6.37×10^9 m^3 will form in the study area by the end of the 21 century.Due to global warming,the glacial lakes in the Zhangmu and Gyirong port regions will continue to grow in the short term,and hence the risk of glacial lake outburst floods will increase.

山地冰川冰湖变化及其溃决洪水遥感监测研究进展

冰湖作为冰川融水主要储蓄载体,能在一定程度延缓区域冰川淡水资源流失,但也为冰湖溃决洪水(Glacial Lake Outburst Floods,GLOFs)、滑坡、泥石流等山地灾害发生提供了孕灾场所,是众多山地冰川灾害链的重要环节。升温、极端气候变化扰动下,冰川物质亏损/减薄速率进一步加剧,冰湖形态变化速率加快、GLOFs发生频次与规模有所提升、灾害影响效应愈发显著,对高海拔山地冰川区下游居民生命财产和基础设施安全带来潜在风险。鉴于此,本文以冰湖与GLOFs研究为主题,首先,通过冰湖研究文献计量分析确定了近些年研究热点专题;其次,围绕山地冰川冰湖与GLOFs研究的3个主要方向:冰湖与GLOFs遥感监测、冰湖时空演化与冰川变化分析及未来潜在冰湖探测、冰湖灾害风险评估与GLOFs案例研究,遴选10项重要专题内容,分门别类、系统梳理总结、剖析了国内外研究进展,阐述了当下研究存在不足;最后,针对所选专题结合技术发展趋势与研究热点问题,围绕冰湖形态信息与GLOFs智能提取、冰川-冰(前/面)湖系统演化及其气候变化响应关系、冰湖监测预警与灾害防治内容,对未来研究做了一定展望,以期为山地冰川冰湖灾害管理与适应性规划提供借鉴与参考。