Inconsistent increasing of climate potential productivity resulting from global warming and land use transitions in the Dongting Lake Basin,from 2000 to 2020

In the face of global warming and increasing impervious surfaces,quantifying the change of climate potential productivity(CPP)is of great significance for the food production planning.Targeting the Dongting Lake Basin,which is a key area for food production in China,this paper uses meteorological data,as well as Climate Change Initiative Land Cover,and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model to investigate the CPP and its changes from 2000 to 2020.The suitability of land for cultivation(SLC),and the land use/land cover change(LUCC)are also considered.The results showed that the CPP varied from 9,825 to 20,895 kg ha^(-1).Even though the newly added impervious surfaces indirectly resulted in the decrease of CPP by of 9.81×10~8 kg,overall,the CPP increased at an average rate of 83.7 kg ha^(-1)a^(-1).Global warming is the strongest driver behind CPP increase,and CPP has played an important role in the conversions between cultivated land and other land types.The structure of land types tends to be optimized against this challenge.

Quantifying the spatial variation in the potential productivity and yield gap of winter wheat in China

Despite the improvement in cultivar characters and management practices, large gaps between the attainable and potential yields still exist in winter wheat of China. Quantifying the crop potential yield is essential for estimating the food production capacity and improving agricultural policies to ensure food security. Gradually descending models and geographic infor- mation system （GIS） technology were employed to characterize the spatial variability of potential yields and yield gaps in winter wheat across the main production region of China. The results showed that during 2000-2010, the average potential yield limited by thermal resource （YGT） was 23.2 Mg ha-1, with larger value in the northern area relative to the southern area. The potential yield limited by the water supply （YGw） generally decreased from north to south, with an average value of 1.9 Mg ha-1 across the entire study region. The highest YGw in the north sub-region （NS） implied that the irrigation and drainage conditions in this sub-region must be improved. The averaged yield loss of winter wheat from nutrient deficiency （YGH） varied between 2.1 and 3.1 Mg ha-1 in the study area, which was greater than the yield loss caused by water limitation. The potential decrease in yield from photo-thermal-water-nutrient-limited production to actual yield （YGo） was over 6.0 Mg ha-1, ranging from 4.9 to 8.3 Mg ha^-1 across the entire study region, and it was more obvious in the southern area than in the northern area. These findings suggest that across the main winter wheat production region, the highest yield gap was induced by thermal resources, followed by other factors, such as the level of farming technology, social policy and economic feasibility. Furthermore, there are opportunities to narrow the yield gaps by making full use of climatic resources and developing a reasonable production plan for winter wheat crops. Thus, meeting the challenges of food security and sustainability in the coming decades is possible but will require considerable changes in water and nutrient management and socio-economic policies.

Simulation of Potential Production and Optimum Population Quantitative Indices for the Second Hybrid Rice

The article established the HDRICE model by modifying the structure of the ORYZA1 model and revising its parameters by field experiments. The HDRICE model consists of the modules of morphological development of rice, daily dry matter accumulation and partitioning, daily CO2 assimilation of the canopy, leaf area, and tiller development. The model preferably simulated the dynamic rice development because of the thorough integration of the effects of temperature and light on the rates of rice development, photosynthesis, respiration, and. other ecophysiological processes. In addition, this model has attainable grain yield in the test experiment that showed the potential yield of cultivar Xieyou 46 ranged from 11 to 13 tons ha-~. Besides, the model was used to optimize the combinations of the transplanting date, seedling age and density for cultivar Xieyou 46 at Jinhua area, and the population quantitative indices to attain the potential yield such as maximum stems, effective panicles, filled grain number/leaf area, and so on. The result showed that the combination of transplanting date on July 25, seedling age of 35 days and base seedling density of 1.33 x 106ha-1 is the optimum combination for the second hybrid rice production in Jinhua County, China. And the maximum stems, the effective panicles, the filled grain per panicle, the peak of optimum LAI, LAI in later filling stage, and the filled grain number/leaf were 6.03×10^6ha, 3.99×10^6ha, 119.2, 8.59, 5-6, and 0.64, respectively.

Simulation of Potential Productivity of Early Season Rice Varieties in Different Reqions of South China

Rice is a staple food crop in China.Since the 1950’s,many new varieties havebeen used and resulted in great increase ofyield.However there were still some barriersin the nationwide extension of new varietiesdue to the insufficient information about thecharacteristics of varieties.So,it is impor-tant to find ways of determining the potential

Analysis of the Identification of Local Agriculture Products in the Municipality of Aileu, Manufahi, and Ainaro That Have Potential for Export and Attract Foreign Investments in Agricultural Sector

The objective of this study is to identify and collect information on local agriculture products and identify local potential agriculture and livestock that can attract foreign investments. Used Stratified Random Sampling and data was collected from both primary and secondary data (both quantitative and qualitative data. The data analyzed used qualitative and quantitative analysis. The supply chain analysis was carried out to develop a description of the value chain to identify potential high-value market areas and current and potential products in the domestic and export markets. The results of the study revealed that most farmers in the research location grow different types of crops and livestock. In particular for Aileu and Ainaro where most of the areas are up-land, therefore, horticulture crops (mustard, cabbage, carrots, and tomato) and coffee are dominated in these areas. For Manufahi, some parts are lowland areas, where most crops grown are maize, cassava, and paddy rice. The study reveals that local potential agriculture products and livestock in the municipalities of Aileu, Ainaro, and Manufahi are vegetable, coffee, maize, and paddy rice, banana, shallot, tangerine, cabbage, carrot, cattle, mung-bean, and banana. To accelerate economic growth, in these municipalities, there is a need to modernize agricultural production, requiring markets for both inputs supply and for the sale of output products. Opportunities to increase the productivity of these products are feasible and this can be done through the use of high-variety seeds and better farm management, and the government and private sector can play an important role in improving productivity as this will have a further implication in improving food security.

Comparison of the Impacts of Climate Change on Potential Productivity of Different Staple Crops in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of North China

The aim of this study is to compare the impacts of climate change on the potential productivity and potential productivity gaps of sunflower （Helianthus annuus）, potato （Solanurn tuberosurn）, and spring wheat （Triticumaestivurn Linn） in the agro-pastoral ecotone （APE） of North China. A crop growth dynamics statistical method was used to calculate the potential productivity affected by light, temperature, precipitation, and soil fertility. The growing season average temperature increased by 0.47, 0.48, and 0.52℃ per decade （p 〈 0.05） for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively, from 1981 to 2010. Meanwhile, the growing season solar radiation showed a decreasing trend （p 〈 0.05） and the growing season precipitation changed non-significantly across APE. The light-temperature potential productivity increased by 4.48% per decade for sunflower but decreased by 1.58% and 0.59% per decade for potato and spring wheat. The climate soil potential productivity reached only 31.20%, 27.79%, and 20.62% of the light-emperature potential produc- tivity for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively. The gaps between the light-temperature and climate-soil potential productivity increased by 6.41%, 0.97%, and 1.29% per decade for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively. The increasing suitability of the climate for sunflower suggested that the sown area of sunflower should be increased compared with potato and spring wheat in APE under future climate warming.

Impact of Climate Change on Maize Potential Productivity and the Potential Productivity Gap in Southwest China

The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China（SWC） are investigated in this paper.We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic,light-temperature,and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC,by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method.During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010,minimum temperature increased by 0.20℃ per decade（p 〈 0.01） across SWC.The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province.Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day^（-1） per decade（p 〈 0.01） and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC.Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha^（-1）per decade（p 〈 0.05）.Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased（p 〈 0.05） in the northeast of SWC,whereas they increased（p 〈 0.05） in the southwest of SWC.The gap between lighttemperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha^（-1）,with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC.Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24%of the light-temperature potential productivity,suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas.In particular,the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years.Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC.The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.

Modelling of Energy Flow,Rotational Grazing and Potential Productivity in an Alpine Meadow Grazing Ecosystem

An eight-compartment model of the energy dynamics of an alpine meadow-sheep grazing ecosystem was proposed based on SHIYOMI's system approach. The compartments were the above-ground plant portion, the underground live portion including roots, the underground dead portion including roots, the above-ground litter Ⅰ (degradable portion), the above-ground litter Ⅱ (undegradable portion), the sheep intake, the sheep liveweight, and the faeces. Energy flows between the eight compartments were described by eight simultaneous differential equations. All parameters in the model were determined from paddock experiments. The model was designed to provide a practical method for estimating the effects of the number of rotational grazing subplots, grazing period, and grazing pressure on the performance of grazing systems for perennial alpine meadow pasture. The model provides at least 28 different attributes for characterizing the performance of the grazing system. Analyses of 270 simulated rotational grazing systems of summer-autumn meadow pasture (grazing from 1st June to 30 October each year) provided an inference base to support two recommendations concerning management variables. First, with a three-paddock, 29-day grazing period and 30.14kJ·m -2 ·day -1 grazing pressure scheme, the system has the highest total grazing intake, 4250.44kJ·m -2 , during the grazing season. Secondly, with a three-paddock, 7-day grazing period and 28.89kJ·m -2 ·day -1 grazing pressure scheme, the accumulated graze is 4073.34kJ·m -2 . The potential productivity of the alpine meadow under grazing is defined in this paper as the maximal dry biomass of herbage grazed by the grazing animals over the whole growing season. It has been analysed by applying optimal control theory to the model. The productivity is regarded as the objective function to be maximized through optimization of the time course of the grazing pressure, the control variable. The results show that: (1) under constant grazing pressure, the optimal grazing pressure is f 16 =25.90kJ·m -2 ·day -1 (f 46 =f 56 =0) with the highest accumulated intake of J (1) =3268.17kJ·m -2 ; and (2) the optimal grazing pressure is f 16 =25.94kJ·m -2 ·day -1 (f 46 ≠0, f 56 ≠0) with the maxial accumulated intake J (145) =3500.39kJ·m -2 . Under variable grazing pressure, the dynamics of optimal grazing pressure is shown in Fig.6(a) and Eqs. (9)(11), while the potential productivity (the highest accumulated intake) is J (145) =8749.01kJ·m -2 , 2.5 times the constant grazing pressure.[

Impacts of climate change on the potential forest productivity based on a climate-driven biophysical model in northeastern China

Climate warming is expected to influence forest growth,composition and distribution.However,accurately estimating and predicting forest biomass,potential productivity or forest growth is still a challenge for forest managers dealing with land-use at the stand to regional levels.In the present study,we predicted the potential productivity(PP)of forest under current and future climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5)in Jilin province,northeastern China by using Paterson’s Climate Vegetation and Productivity(CVP)index model.The PP was validated by comparing it with the mean and maximum net primary production calculated from light energy utilization(GLM_PEM).Our results indicated that using the CVP index model is partially valid for predicting the potential forest productivity in northeastern China.PP exhibited obvious spatial heterogeneity varying from 4.6 to 8.9 m3 ha-1 year-1 with an increasing tendency from northwest to southeast driven by the precipitation across the region.The number of vegetation-active months,precipitation and insolation coefficient were identified as the primary factors affecting PP,but no significant relationship was found for warmest temperature or temperature fluctuation.Under future climate scenarios,PP across the Jilin Province is expected to increase from 1.38%(RCP2.6 in 2050)to 15.30%(RCP8.5 in 2070),especially in the eastern Songnen Plain(SE)for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

AN ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE UPON NATURAL ZONES AND AGRICULTURAL POTENTIALPRODUCTIVITY IN CHINA

According to climatic, hydrological, soil and vegetation data from671 stations in China, 12 temperate zones contains 45 natural regions areidentified. In this paper, methods like migration of crop distribution , potentialproductivity, and dynamic modelling are used to research changs of naturalzones and natural regions of eco-envirotunent.

Net Primary Productivity and Management Potential of Artificial Pinus tabulaeformis Forest in Shanxi Province

The dynamic variation of net primary productivity of artificial Pinus tabulaeformis forest was studied in Shanxi Province,and potential productivity of artificial forest was predicted to provide reference for improving quality of regional forest stand. The regression equation was established by using the stratification and harvesting method with the relative growth model. Cumulative method and Thornthwaite Memorial model was used to estimate the actual and potential productivity of the forest. The productivity of P. tabulaeformis forest increased with the increase of age and started decrease with the mature period. The actual productivity of P. tabulaeformis forest was 4. 462 t/( ha·year); the contribution rate of trees was 72. 17% of the total productivity,and with the increase of age,the total biomass increased but productivity decreased at late near-mature forest; the contribution rate of herb layer was 21. 16% in the young forest stage,and then decreased gradually. On the contrary,the contribution rate of shrub layer increased gradually,and the contribution rate of the grassland was more than that of the herb layer,so as the key period of structural management; the average potential productivity of forest was 8. 422 t/( ha·year),and the potential space of P. tabulaeformis was at least 32% in Shanxi Province. In conclusion,the potential space of productivity of P. tabulaeformis was at least 32%,and the primary limiting factor of P. tabulaeformis forest productivity in Shanxi Province was rainfall.

Geological Controls on the CBM Productivity of No.15 Coal Seam of Carboniferous–Permian Taiyuan Formation in Southern Qinshui Basin and Prediction for CBM High-yield Potential Regions

Coalbed methane(CBM) resources in No.15 coal seam of Taiyuan Formation account for 55% of the total CBM resources in southern Qinshui Basin(SQB), and have a great production potential. This study aims at investigating the CBM production in No.15 coal seam and its influence factors. Based on a series of laboratory experiments and latest exploration and development data from local coal mines and CBM companies, the spatial characteristics of gas production of No.15 coal seam were analyzed and then the influences of seven factors on the gas productivity of this coal seam were discussed, including coal thickness, burial depth, gas content, ratio of critical desorption pressure to original coal reservoir pressure(RCPOP), porosity, permeability, and hydrogeological condition. The influences of hydrological condition on CBM production were analyzed based on the discussions of four aspects: hydrogeochemistry, roof lithology and its distribution, hydrodynamic field of groundwater, and recharge rate of groundwater. Finally, a three-level analytic hierarchy process(AHP) evaluation model was proposed for predicting the CBM potentials of the No.15 coal seam in the SQB. The best prospective target area for CBM production of the No.15 coal seam is predicted to be in the districts of Panzhuang, Chengzhuang and south of Hudi.

Evaluation of Potential Land Productivity in Wulushan, West China

The general situation of the total land resources in Wulushan, West China was studied by field investigations with the aid of a GIS software, called Region Manager. The current status of land use in Wulushan is described. The potential land productivity was evaluated by a fuzzy comprehensive method, We take each plot as a basic unit of evaluation on the basis of an index system of land resources in Wulushan which was developed from the investigation data. Evaluation of potential land productivity is the key part of land management. A guideline is presented in this paper for a proper utilization of the land resources and to develop the productive capacity of the land.

The study of productivity in the Bohai Sea-Ⅱ. Primary productivity and estimation of potential fish catch

-On the basis of the data obtained from the surveys in the Bohai Sea during 1982-1983, this paper analysed and discussed the distribution and seasonal variation of primary productivity in the Bohai Sea, and the correlations between the primary productivity and environmental factors. The organic carbon production and prospect of fishery production in the waters of this sea are estimated. It is shown that, there exists production patential in the Bohai Sea, the primary production is 112 gC/ (m2 ?a)the production of organic carbon being 10 million ton per year, the fishery yields 1 million ton and the maximum catch of sea products 0. 5 million ton. The results of the investigation can serve as the basic data for the exploitation, utilization and management of the fishery resources in the Bohai Sea.

Replacement of Cereal with Low Starch Fibrous By-Products on Nutrients Utilization and Methane Emissions in Dairy Goats

Feeding systems for dairy ruminants need to ensure high intake of energy to achieve maximum milk production potential. This might be accomplished by raising the dietary concentration of cereal grain. Increasing the concentration of starch in diets can lead to undesirable ruminal fermentation, and to prevent it, the partial replacement of cereal grain with low starch by-product feeds is recommended. The purpose of the present study was to compare the effect of fed two mixed diets to dairy goats differing in the type of carbohydrate (starch vs. easily degradable fiber). Energy and nitrogen balance, short chain fatty acids in rumen liquor and milk performance in dairy goats during mid lactation were determined. Enteric methane (CH4) emissions and CH4 production from manure were determined as well. Ten multiparous Muciano-Granadina goats were assigned to two isoenergetic and isoproteic diets (19.1 MJ/kg dry matter (DM) and 18.1% of CP, DM basis) in a crossover design. One group was fed a mixed ration with 21.9% of starch (HS diet) and the other (LS diet) with 7.0% of starch. HS diet had 36% of barley (as source of starch) and it was replaced with soy hulls and corn gluten feed in LS diet (as potentially digestible fiber). No differences were observed for dry matter intake in both diets (2.05 kg/d, on average). A significant increase of ruminal acetic acid was found for low starch diet (66.4 and 56.6 mol/100 mol for LS and HS diet, respectively). No significant effect was found among diets for enteric CH4 emissions (28.5 g/d, on average). Manure derived maximum potential yield was (Bo) higher in HS diet, with 5.9 L CH4/kg OM vs. 0.28 L CH4/kg OM for LS diet, probably associated with the low ADF digestibility. Differences among diets were found for milk production (2.4 vs. 2.2 kg/d for HS and LS, respectively), and greater milk fat was observed with LS diet compared with HS (6.4% vs. 5.5%, respectively).

An Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process and Application in Grain Production

Value analysis of grain production influencing factors is a complex decision problem. This paper introduced a modified Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） accumulation factor, namely Solving Weight by AHP＇s Accumulation Factor Sequence Evaluating Data. We used the arithmetical average to replace the expert marking, so that the possible decision mistakes by the subjective judgments could be avoided. We computed the case with this method, which obtained attribute value of 17 influencing factors of the potential food production in Heilongjiang Province, and the result of which was reasonable

Influence of Isotope Effects on Product Polarizations of N(~2D)+D_2, N(~2D)+H_2 and N(~2D)+HD Reactive Systems

To figure out the influence of isotope effect on product polarizations of the N（2D）＋D2 reactive system and its isotope variants, quasi-classical trajectory（QCT） calculation was performed on Ho＇s potential energy surface（PES） of 2A″ state. Product polarizations such as product distributions of P（θr）, P（φr） and P（θr,φr）, as well as the generalized polarization-dependent differential cross sections（PDDCSs） were discussed and compared in detail among the four product channels of the title reactions. Both the intermolecular and intramolecular isotope effects were proved to be influential on product polarizations.

Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Respiration Probed by Numerical Analysis of Field-Observed Data Sets

Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration is essential to predict possible changes in terrestrial carbon budget on various scenarios about atmospheric and soil climates. Although it is often evaluated by using respiratory quotient “Q10”, Q10 values of soil respiration seem to vary depending on methods or scales of evaluation. Aiming at probing how Q10 values of soil respiration are evaluated differently for a field, this study used a model of soil respiration rate, and numerically evaluated soil respiration rates along depth by fitting the model to depth distributions of CO2 concentration measured in a field. And temperature sensitivity of soil respiration rate was evaluated by comparing the determined soil respiration rates with atmospheric and soil temperatures measured in the field. The results showed that the relation between surface CO2 emission rates and atmospheric temperatures was represented by lower Q10 values than that between soil respiration rates and soil temperatures, presumably because the top soil layers had acclimatized in more extent to the existing thermal regime than the underlying deeper layers. Thus, for evaluating effects of long-term rise in atmospheric temperature on soil respiration, it is necessary to precisely predict the long-term change in depth distribution of soil temperature as well as to quantify temperature sensitivity of soil respiration along depth. The evaluated sensitivity of surface CO2 emission rate to atmospheric temperature showed hysteresis, implying the needs for more knowledge about temperature sensitivity of soil respiration evaluated in both warming and cooling processes for better understandings and predictions about terrestrial carbon cycling.