Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis(Diptera: Tephritidae) in China using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling

Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis are highly destructive and major biosecurity/quarantine pests of fruit and vegetable in the tropical and subtropical regions in the South Pacific and Australia.Although these pests have not established in China,precautions must be taken due to their highly destructive nature.Thus,we predicted the potential geographic distribution of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis across the world and in particular China by ecological niche modeling of the Maximum Entropy(Max Ent)model with the occurrence records of these two species.Bactrocera bryoniae and B.neohumeralis exhibit similar potential geographic distribution ranges across the world and in China,and each species was predicted to be able to distribute to over 20%of the globe.Globally,the potential geographic distribution ranges for these two fruit fly species included southern Asia,the central and the southeast coast of Africa,southern North America,northern and central South America,and Australia.While within China,most of the southern Yangtze River area was found suitable for these species.Notably,southern China was considered to have the highest risk of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis invasions.Our study identifies the regions at high risk for potential establishment of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis in the world and in particular China,and informs the development of inspection and biosecurity/quarantine measures to prevent and control their invasions.

Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of a new potato pest(Schrankia costaestrigalis) in China under climate change

Global food security is threatened by the impacts of the spread of crop pests and changes in the complex interactions between crops and pests under climate change.Schrankia costaestrigalis is a newly-reported potato pest in southern China.Early-warning monitoring of this insect pest could protect domestic agriculture as it has already caused regional yield reduction and/or quality decline in potato production.Our research aimed to confirm the potential geographical distributions(PGDs)of S.costaestrigalis in China under different climate scenarios using an optimal MaxEnt model,and to provide baseline data for preventing agricultural damage by S.costaestrigalis.Our findings indicated that the accuracy of the optimal MaxEnt model was better than the default-setting model,and the minimum temperature of the coldest month,precipitation of the driest month,precipitation of the coldest quarter,and the human influence index were the variables significantly affecting the PGDs of S.costaestrigalis.The highly-and moderately-suitable habitats of S.costaestrigalis were mainly located in eastern and southern China.The PGDs of S.costaestrigalis in China will decrease under climate change.The conversion of the highly-to moderately-suitable habitat will also be significant under climate change.The centroid of the suitable habitat area of S.costaestrigalis under the current climate showed a general tendency to move northeast and to the middle-high latitudes in the 2030s.The agricultural practice of plastic film mulching in potato fields will provide a favorable microclimate for S.costaestrigalis in the suitable areas.More attention should be paid to the early warning and monitoring of S.costaestrigalis in order to prevent its further spread in the main areas in China’s winter potato planting regions.

Monitoring the little fire ant,Wasmannia auropunctata(Roger 1863),in the early stage of its invasion in China:Predicting its geographical distribution pattern under climate change

Invasive alien ants(IAAs)are among the most aggressive,competitive,and widespread invasive alien species(IAS)worldwide.Wasmannia auropunctata,the greatest IAAs threat in the Pacific region and listed in“100 of the world’s worst IAS”,has established itself in many countries and on islands worldwide.Wild populations of W.auropunctata were recently reported in southeastern China,representing a tremendous potential threat to China’s agricultural,economic,environmental,public health,and social well-being.Estimating the potential geographical distribution(PGD)of W.auropunctata in China can illustrate areas that may potentially face invasion risk.Therefore,based on the global distribution records of W.auropunctata and bioclimatic variables,we predicted the geographical distribution pattern of W.auropunctata in China under the effects of climate change using an ensemble model(EM).Our findings showed that artificial neural network(ANN),flexible discriminant analysis(FDA),gradient boosting model(GBM),Random Forest(RF)were more accurate than categorical regression tree analysis(CTA),generalized linear model(GLM),maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and surface distance envelope(SRE).The mean TSS values of ANN,FDA,GBM,and RF were 0.820,0.810,0.843,and 0.857,respectively,and the mean AUC values were 0.946,0.954,0.968,and 0.979,respectively.The mean TSS and AUC values of EM were 0.882 and 0.972,respectively,indicating that the prediction results with EM were more reliable than those with the single model.The PGD of W.auropunctata in China is mainly located in southern China under current and future climate change.Under climate change,the PGD of W.auropunctata in China will expand to higher-latitude areas.The annual temperature range(bio7)and mean temperature of the warmest quarter(bio10)were the most significant variables affecting the PGD of W.auropunctata in China.The PGD of W.auropunctata in China was mainly attributed to temperature variables,such as the annual temperature range(bio7)and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter(bio10).The populations of W.auropunctata in southern China have broad potential invasion areas.Developing strategies for the early warning,monitoring,prevention,and control of W.auropunctata in southern China requires more attention.

Prediction of the global potential geographical distribution of Hylurgus ligniperda using a maximum entropy model

Background: Hylurgus ligniperda(Fabricius) is native to Europe but has established populations in many countries and regions. H. ligniperda mainly infests Pinus species, and can cause severe weakness and even death of the host through its boring activity;it can also be a vector of various pathogenic fungi. This study was conducted to investigate the environmental variables limiting the distribution of H. ligniperda and the change trend of its suitable areas under climate change.Results: We used a maximum entropy model to predict the potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda on a global scale under near current and future climatic scenarios using its occurrence data and environmental variables. The result shows that the areas surrounding the Mediterranean region, the eastern coastal areas of Asia, and the southeastern part of Oceania are highly suitable for H. ligniperda. The environmental variables with the greatest effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda were determined using the jackknife method and Pearson’s correlation analysis and included the monthly average maximum temperature in April, precipitation of driest quarter, the monthly average minimum temperature in December, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter and mean diurnal range.Conclusions: Excessive precipitation in winter and low temperatures in spring had a great effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda. The potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda was predicted to change under future climatic conditions compared with near current climate conditions. Highly suitable areas, moderately suitable areas and low suitable areas were predicted to increase by 59.99%, 44.43% and 22.92%, respectively, under the2081–2100 ssp245 scenario.

Potential geographical distribution of Rhagoletis pomonella （Diptera： Tephritidae）in China

Apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella （Walsh） is a major pest causing considerable economic losses of fruits in North America. During the development of international trade, apple maggot fly has become a threat to Chinese agriculture. In this study, CLIMEX and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential geographical distribution of apple maggot fly in China. The parameters used in CLIMEX for apple maggot fly were derived from ecological data and the present geographical distribution of apple maggot fly in North America. Then the potential distribution map in China was presented based on the adjusted values of these parameters. The results showed that apple maggot fly has a wide potential distribution area in China; 47.5% of 748 meteorological stations presented high or medium suitability of pest establishment. These high suitable stations are mainly located in northeast, southwest and northwest of China, such as Liaoning, Shandong, Gansu and Shaanxi Provinces. These areas are also the central regions of apple, pear and peach production in China. Two hundred and twenty-five stations （30.1%） in westem and southern China, such as Tibet, Qinghai, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Taiwan, were unsuitable for establishment of apple maggot fly populations. In order to prevent the introduction of apple maggot fly in China, the present plant quarantine measures should be enhanced, especially in the areas with high suitability for the presence of apple maggot fly.

Management of Colorado potato beetle in invasive frontier areas

Colorado potato beetle(CPB)is one of the most devastating invasive insects and it is native to North America.It feeds on several wild species of the genus Solamum,such as S.elaeagnifolium and S.rostratum Dunal,and is one of the major pests of potato and eggplant.Beginning in the early 19 th century,CPB has rapidly spread across North America,Europe,and Central Asia.CPB was first reported to invade Xinjiang of China in 1993 and it was effectively controlled in Mori County.Since 2013,CPB has also been found in Jilin and Heilongjiang in Northeast China,and it likely migrated to these provinces from Russia.Thus,China has become the frontier for the global CPB spread,and risk management and monitoring systems for this pest are urgently needed.Here,we summarize pest management methods that are used in areas at the frontier of the CPB invasion,and put forward frameworks for further preventing and controlling of the spread of CPB.The management methods for CPB can also serve as an example for the control of invasive species mitigation in frontier areas.