Potential distribution of Haloxylon ammodendron in Central Asia under climate change

Understanding the spatial distribution of plant species and their dynamic changes in arid areas is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change.Haloxylon ammodendron shelterbelts are essential for the protection of plant resources and the control of desertification in Central Asia.Thus far,the potential suitable habitats of H.ammodendron in Central Asia are still uncertain in the future under global climate change conditions.This study utilised the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to combine the current distribution data of H.ammodendron with its growth-related data to analyze the potential distribution pattern of H.ammodendron across Central Asia.The results show that there are suitable habitats of H.ammodendron in the Aralkum Desert,northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains,and the upstream of the Tarim River and western edge of the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin under the current climate conditions.The period from 2021 to 2040 is projected to undergo significant changes in the suitable habitat area of H.ammodendron in Central Asia,with a projected 15.0% decrease in the unsuitable habitat area.Inland areas farther from the ocean,such as the Caspian Sea and Aralkum Desert,will continue to experience a decrease in the suitable habitats of H.ammodendron.Regions exhibiting frequent fluctuations in the habitat suitability levels are primarily found along the axis stretching from Astana to Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik in Kazakhstan.These regions can transition into suitable habitats under varying climate conditions,requiring the implementation of appropriate human intervention measures to prevent desertification.Future climate conditions are expected to cause an eastward shift in the geometric centre of the potential suitable habitats of H.ammodendron,with the extent of this shift amplifying alongside more greenhouse gas emissions.This study can provide theoretical support for the spatial configuration of H.ammodendron shelterbelts and desertification control in Central Asia,emphasising the importance of proactive measures to adapt to climate change in the future.

Hunting of hunted:an ensemble modeling approach to evaluate suitable habitats for caracals in India

Background:Large-scale hunting and various anthropogenic pressures in the recent past have pushed the Asiatic caracal(Caracal caracal schmitzi),an elusive medium-sized and locally threatened felid species towards local extinction in India.Though widely distributed historically,it has been sparsely reported from several regions of central and northern states in India till twentieth century.Later,the species distribution became confined only to the states of Rajasthan,Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh,which have had reported sightings in the twenty-first century.In order to highlight the potentially suitable habitats for Asiatic caracals in India,we targeted forth-filtering of the spatial model ensemble by creating and utilizing the validated and spatially thinned species presence information(n=69)and related ecological variables(aridity,NDVI,precipitation seasonality,temperature seasonality,terrain ruggedness),filtered with anthropological variable(nightlight).Results:Out of eight spatial prediction models,the two most parsimonious models,Random Forest(AUC 0.91)and MaxEnt(AUC 0.89)were weighted and ensembled.The ensemble model indicated several clustered habitats,covering 1207.83 km^(2)areas in Kachchh(Gujarat),Aravalli mountains(Rajasthan),Malwa plateau(Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh),and Bundelkhand region(Madhya Pradesh)as potentially suitable habitats for caracals.Output probabilities of pixels were further regressed with converted vegetation height data within selected highly potential habitats,i.e.,Ranthambore Kuno Landscape(RKL)(suitability~0.44+0.03(vegetation height)^(**),R^(2)=0.27).The regression model inferred a significant positive relation between vegetation height and habitat suitability,hence the lowest ordinal class out of three classes of converted vegetation height was masked out from the RKL,which yielded in an area of 567 km^(2) as potentially highly suitable habitats for caracals,which can be further proposed as survey areas and conservation priority areas for caracals.Conclusion:The study charts out the small pockets of landscape in and around dryland protected areas,suitable for caracal in the Indian context,which need attention for landscape conservation.