Extreme Cold Events in North America and Eurasia in November-December 2022: A Potential Vorticity Gradient Perspective

From 17 November to 27 December 2022, extremely cold snowstorms frequently swept across North America and Eurasia. Diagnostic analysis reveals that these extreme cold events were closely related to the establishment of blocking circulations. Alaska Blocking(AB) and subsequent Ural Blocking(UB) episodes are linked to the phase transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and represent the main atmospheric regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. The downstream dispersion and propagation of Rossby wave packets from Alaska to East Asia provide a large-scale connection between AB and UB episodes. Based on the nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI) model, we found that the meridional potential vorticity gradient(PVy) in November and December of 2022 was anomalously weak in the mid-high latitudes from North America to Eurasia and provided a favorable background for the prolonged maintenance of UB and AB events and the generation of associated severe extreme snowstorms. However, the difference in the UB in terms of its persistence,location, and strength between November and December is related to the positive(negative) NAO in November(December). During the La Ni?a winter of 2022, the UB and AB events are related to the downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies, in addition to contributions by La Ni?a and low Arctic sea ice concentrations as they pertain to reducing PVyin mid-latitudes.

Impacts of Cloud-Induced Mass Forcing on the Development of Moist Potential Vorticity Anomaly During Torrential Rains

The impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the development of the moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR 1? × 1? data. The MPV tendency equation with the cloud-induced mass forcing is derived, and applied to the torrential rain event over the Changjiang River-Huaihe River Valleys during 26–30 June 1999. The result shows that positive anomalies are located mainly between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, while the maximum MPV, maximum positive tendency of the MPV, and maximum surface rainfall are nearly collocated. The cloud-induced mass forcing contributes to the positive tendency of the moist potential vorticity anomaly. The results indicate that the MPV may be used to track the propagation of rain systems for operational applications.

Study on Moist Potential Vorticity and Symmetric Instabilityduring a Heavy Rain Event Occurred inthe Jiang-Huai Valleys

In the light of the theory on moist potential vorticity (MPV) investigation was undertaken of the 700 hPa vertical (horizontal) component MP1 (MPV2) for the heavy rain event occurring in July 5–6, 1991. Results show that the distribution features of the two components were closely related to the development of a mesoscale cyclone as a rainstorm-causing weather system in the lower troposphere in such a way that the ambient atmosphere of which MPV1 > 0 and MPV2 < 0 with |MPV1| ≥ |MPV2| favored the genesis of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) and that, as indicated by calculations, a CSI sector was really existent in the lower troposphere during the heavy rain happening and contributed greatly to its development.

Potential Vorticity Structure and Inversion of the Cyclogenesis Over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River Valleys

In this paper, the potential vorticity structure and inversion of the cyclogenesis over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys during 21 23 June 2003 are investigated with a potential vorticity （PV） framework. The cyclogenesis is manifested by a lower-tropospheric PV anomaly over the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys at early stages mainly due to latent heat release, which greatly affects the evolution of the associated lower-tropospheric geopotential height and wind fields as demonstrated by piecewise PV inversion. At later stages, an upper-tropospheric PV anomaly develops, resulting in the growth of ridges over the cyclone in both the upstream and downstream, which provide a favorable background field for the low-level cyclone development. But the effect of a surface thermal anomaly always impedes the development of the cyclone to different extents during this cyclogenesis. It is further demonstrated that the position and the strength of the PV anomaly are closely related to the low-level cyclone development, and the lower-tropospheric PV anomaly seems to constitute the most significant feature, for instance, contributing about 60% to the low-level jet （LLJ）.

Sensitivity of Cyclone Tracks to the Initial Moisture Distribution:A Moist Potential Vorticity Perspective

In this study, the characteristics of moist potential vorticity （MPV） in the vicinity of a surface cyclone center and their physical processes axe investigated. A prognostic equation of surface absolute vorticity is then used to examine the relationship between the cyclone tracks and negative MPV （NMPV） using numerical simulations of the life cycle of an extratropical cyclone. It is shown that the MPV approach developed herein, i.e., by tracing the peak NMPV, can be used to help trace surface cyclones during their development and mature stages. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of different initial moisture fields on the effectiveness of the MPV approach. It is found that the lifetime of NMPV depends mainly on the initial moisture field, the magnitude of condensational heating, and the advection of NMPV. When NMPV moves into a saturated environment at or near a cyclone center, it can trace better the evolution of the surface cyclone due to the conservative property of MPV. It is also shown that the NMPV generation is closely associated with the coupling of large potential temperature and moisture gradients as a result of frontogenesis processes. Analyses indicate that condensation, confluence and tilting play important but different roles in determining the NMPV generation. NMPV is generated mainly through the changes in the strength of baroclinicity and in the direction of the moisture gradient due to moist and/or dry air mass intrusion into the baroclinic zone.

Idealized Numerical Simulation Study of the Potential Vorticity Banners over a Mesoscale Mountain: Dry Adiabatic Process

Topography-induced potential vorticity （PV） banners over a mesoscale topography （Dabie Mountain, hereafter DM） in eastern China, under an idealized dry adiabatic flow, are studied with a mesoscale numerical model, ARPS. PV banners generate over the leeside of the DM with a maximal intensity of ～1.5 PVU, and extend more than 100 km downstream, while the width varies from several to tens of kilometers, which contrasts with the half-width of the peaks along the ridge of the DM. Wave breaking occurs near the leeside surface of the DM, and leads to a strong PV generation. Combining with the PV generation, due to the friction and the flow splitting upstream, the PV is advected downstream, and then forms the PV banners over the DM. The PV banners are sensitive to the model resolution, Coriolis force, friction, subgrid turbulent mixing, stratification, the upstream wind speed and wind direction. The negative PV banners have a more compact connection with the low level turbulent kinetic energy. The PV banners are built up by the baroclinic and barotropic components. The barotropic-associated PV can identify the distribution of the PV banners, while the baroclinic one only has important contributions on the flanks and on the leeside near the topography. PV fluxes are diagnosed to investigate the influence of friction on the PV banners. Similar patterns are found between the total PV flux and the advective PV flux, except near the surface and inside the dipole of the PV banners, where the nonadvective PV flux associated with the friction has a net negative contribution.

A Diagnostic Study of Moist Potential Vorticity Generation in an Extratropical Cyclone

Moist potential vorticity (MPV) and its generation may be important in the development of mesoscale structures such as rainbands within cyclones. In an adiabatic and frictionless flow, MPV generation is possible if the flow is three-dimensional and the air is unsaturated. Moist potential vorticity can be generated through the combined effects of gradients in the potential temperature and moisture fields. The diagnosis of MPV generation in an extratropical cyclone was performed with the ECMWF objectively analyzed fields for a system that developed during February 1992. It was found that at various stages during the development of the cyclone, negative MPV was generated: at the north end of the cold front; along the occluded front and the cold front; and in the region of the warm core. This pattern of negative MPV generation is in excellent agreement with the predictions of previous theoretical and numerical studies. After the cyclone ceased to deepen, the region of negative MPV generated in the cyclone was horizontally advected into a saturated area. The area of negative MPV generated both along the occluded front in this case study and in the region of the bent-back warm front in a numerical simulation showed a mesoscale structure with a width of about 200-500 km. It was found that the intrusion of moist or dry air into baroclinic zones was important for MPV generation. In addition, baroclinicity increase (adjacent to the area of condensation) in the regions of high moisture gradients led to significant MPV production.

Anomaly of the Moist Potential Vorticity Substance with Mass Forcing and Its Application in Diagnosing Mei-Yu Front Rainfall

The effects of precipitation on the moist potential vorticity substance(MPVS) are investigated by analyzing the MPVS with precipitation mass forcing and its impermeability in daily 1°× 1° data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) over the Yangtze River Basin from 21 June to 2 July 1999. The results show that the positive MPVS anomalies appear mainly along the Mei-yu front, where the maximum MPVS collocates with the maximum surface rainfall. Rain case diagnoses indicate that the MPVS anomaly may be used as a dynamical signal to detect the location and shift of the rain band when its impermeability is considered.

Tracking Surface Cyclones with Moist Potential Vorticity

Surface cyclone tracks are investigated in the context of moist potential vorticity (MPV). A prognostic equation of surface absolute vorticity is derived which provides a basis for using negative MPV (NMPV) in the troposphere as an alternative approach to track surface cyclones. An observed case study of explosive lee cyclogenesis is performed to test the e?ectiveness of the MPV approach. It is shown that when a surface cyclone signal is absent due to the blocking of the Rocky Mountains, the surface cyclone can be well identi?ed by tracing the peak NMPV.

Symmetry analysis and explicit solutions of the (3+1)-dimensional baroclinic potential vorticity equation

This paper investigates an important high-dimensional model in the atmospheric and oceanic dynamics-（3＋1）- dimensional nonlinear baroclinic potential vorticity equation by the classical Lie group method. Its symmetry algebra, symmetry group and group-invariant solutions are analysed. Otherwise, some exact explicit solutions are obtained from the corresponding （2＋1）-dimensional equation, the inviscid barotropic nondivergent vorticy equation. To show the properties and characters of these solutions, some plots as well as their possible physical meanings of the atmospheric circulation are given out.

Diabatic Processes and the Generation of the Low-Level Potential Vorticity Anomaly of a Rainstorm in Saudi Arabia

The diabatic heating is calculated, using the thermodynamic equation in isobaric coordinates, of a heavy rainstorm that developed over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 25 November 2009. Throughout the period of study, the horizontal heat advection is the dominant term and the vertical advection term is opposed by the adiabatic one. The contribution of the local temperature term to the change in diabatic heating is relatively very minimal. The presence of the Red Sea and its adjacent mountains suggest that the diabatic heating in the lower atmosphere on that rainy day is primarily due to the latent heat released by convection. The dynamics of the studied case is also investigated in terms of isobaric Potential Vorticity (PV). The results show that the heating region coincides with the location of the low-level PV anomaly. Ertel’s Potential Vorticity (EPV) generation estimates imply that condensation supplies a large enough source of moisture to account for the presence of the low-level EPV anomaly. The low-level diabatic heating-produced PV assisted in amplifying the surface thermal wave early in the rainstorm development and in the upper-level wave during the later stages of the system’s growth.

Interannual Influences of the Surface Potential Vorticity Forcing over the Tibetan Plateau on East Asian Summer Rainfall

The influences of interannual surface potential vorticity forcing over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)on East Asian summer rainfall(EASR)and upper-level circulation are explored in this study.The results show that the interannual EASR and associated circulations are closely related to the surface potential vorticity negative uniform leading mode(PVNUM)over the TP.When the PVNUM is in the positive phase,more rainfall occurs in the Yangtze River valley,South Korea,Japan,and part of northern China,less rainfall occurs in southern China,and vice versa.A possible mechanism by which PVNUM affects EASR is proposed.Unstable air induced by the positive phase of PVNUM could stimulate significant upward motion and a lower-level anomalous cyclone over the TP.As a result,a dipole heating mode with anomalous cooling over the southwestern TP and anomalous heating over the southeastern TP is generated.Sensitivity experiment results regarding this dipole heating mode indicate that anomalous cooling over the southwestern TP leads to local and northeastern Asian negative height anomalies,while anomalous heating over the southeastern TP leads to local positive height anomalies.These results greatly resemble the realistic circulation pattern associated with EASR.Further analysis indicates that the anomalous water vapor transport associated with this anomalous circulation pattern is responsible for the anomalous EASR.Consequently,changes in surface potential vorticity forcing over the TP can induce changes in EASR.

Structure of the Potential Vorticity of an Explosive Cyclone over the Eastern Asian Region in Late November 2013

An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.

Moist Potential Vorticity Vector for Diagnosis of Heavy Rainfall Events in Tanzania

In this paper, we modify the convective vorticity vector (CVV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity and gradient of equivalent potential temperature to moist potential vorticity vector (MPVV) defined as a cross product of absolute vorticity () and the gradient of the moist-air entropy potential temperature (). The patterns of (MPVV) are compared with the patterns of heavy rainfall events that occurred over different regions in Tanzania on 20th to 22nd December, 2011 and on 5th to 8th May, 2015. Moreover, the article aimed at assessing the relative contributions of the magnitude, horizontal and vertical components of (MPVV) detecting on the observed patterns of rainfall events. Dynamic and thermodynamic variables: wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity from numerical output generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model running at Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) were used to compute MPVV. It is found that MPVV provide accurate tracking of locations received heavy rainfall, suggesting its potential use as a dynamic tracer for heavy rainfall events in Tanzania. Finally it is found that the first and second components of MPVV contribute almost equally in tracing locations received heavy rainfall events. The magnitude of MPVV described the locations received heavy rainfall events better than the components.

AN EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX DEFINED BY MOIST POTENTIAL VORTICITY

Based on consideration of both thermodynamic and kinetic features of the subtropical summer monsoon in East Asia,a new index is defined by the moist potential vorticity (MPV) for this monsoon.Variation features of the subtropical summer monsoon over 60 years are analyzed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) data from 1948 to 2007.Results show that the new index can well reflect the seasonal,interannual,and interdecadal variations of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon.Correlation analysis of the new index and precipitation data from 160 stations in China shows that in high-index years,the summer monsoon is strong,and more rain falls in eastern North China,southwestern China,and along the coast of South China and less rain falls in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.In low-index years,the opposite occurs.Lastly,the new index is compared with four established monsoon indices.The new index is found to have an advantage in representing summer rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.

A comparison study of atmospheric circulations and potential vorticity anomaly between the two rapid-intensified typhoons

对两次快速增强台风‘彩虹(2015)’和‘韦森特(2012)’的大气环流条件和高空位涡异常进行了比较。虽然两个台风的快速增强速率相似,但它们的大气环流条件差别很大。通过涡动量通量收敛方法,计算高空倒槽与台风环流的相互作用,发现高空倒槽为台风快速增强的发生提供了十分重要的线索。研究发现:一个孤立的正位涡柱在‘彩虹’台风开始快速增强前垂直发展,不受天气尺度位涡平流的影响。而对于‘韦森特’台风,来自高纬度位涡池沿高空倒槽方向,持续不断为台风环流输送位涡,有利于‘韦森特’台风快速增强。本文的工作为今后研究倒槽对台风快速增强的作用提供了理论依据。

Numerical Simulation and Moist Potential Vorticity Analysis of Torrential Rain in Jiangxi Province during June 2010

Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with a meso-scale rainstorm model. The results show that this rare rainstorm is a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high,thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar to the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location,intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By moist potential vorticity analysis,it is found that the distribution characteristic of MPV which heavy rainfall happens ahead has an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. The vertical overlapping of the positive and negative MPV1 areas is favorable to the generation and development of rainstorm. This zone is also the conjoint area of convective instability and baroclinic instability.

ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOCATED AT SOUTH EDGE OF SOUTH ASIA HIGH ON INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

The NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis of June-to-September dataset between 2002 to 2009 is used in this study to conduct statistical analysis of the relationship between the environmental potential vorticity(PV)on 150 hPa located at the south edge of South Asia High(SAH)and TCs making landfall.The results show that 23 of the TCs are affected by the PV on 150 hPa located at the south edge of SAH between 2002 to2009,and three TCs'center pressure decline after the high-value environmental PV moves to the center of the TCs.These three TCs are Senlaku(0216),Bilis(0604)and Linfa(0903).Through diagnostic analysis from the viewpoint of isolines,we determined the relationship between the intensification of these TCs and the PV anomaly at high levels;the isentropic surface is close to the high level’s PV anomaly under the influence of the 150-hPa PV anomaly,leading to the decline of isentropic surfaces on both sides of the PV anomaly.Then the warm core of the middle and high levels of the TC strengthens and PV increases at the middle level,and both of them are beneficial to the reinforcement of the cyclonic vorticity in the low level.As a result,the center pressure of the TC declines.According to Wu’s theory of Slantwise Vorticity Development(SVD),the incline of the isentropic surfaces leads to the development of vertical vorticity,contributing to the vertical motion and the release of the latent heat.Then the warm core of the TC strengthens and the TC strengthens,too.Otherwise,piecewise PV inversion also shows that the high-level PV influences the mid-level more than the low level.

A Review of Potential Vorticity and Its Possible Application in the Moist Atmospheric Flow

Potential vorticity (PV) has been served as a powerful and useful dynamic tracer for the understanding of the large-scale dynamics and synoptic variations in the atmosphere and oceans.Significant progress has been made on the application of PV.In recent decades there has been a substantial amount of work done on PV in a gen-eral moist atmosphere.In this paper PV and the general-ized moist potential vorticity (GMPV) and their applica-tion in the tropical cyclones and mesoscale meteorologi-cal field are reviewed.The GMPV is derived for a real atmosphere (neither totally dry nor saturated) by intro-ducing a generalized potential temperature instead of the potential temperature or equivalent potential temperature.Such a generalization can depict the moist effect on PV anomaly in the non-uniformly saturated atmosphere.A new convective vorticity vector (CVV) is introduced in connection with GMPV in order to diagnose the devel-opment of tropical deep convections.

DIAGNOSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENTAL MECHANISM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE USING POTENTIAL VORTICITY INVERSION OF FRONTOGENESIS

This paper diagnoses and analyses the developmental mechanism of a process of extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone which occurred over West Pacific Ocean based on a diagnosis method of potential vorticity inversion of frontogenesis.The study diagnoses quantitatively the role and effect of dynamic influence of westerly cold troughs,middle-latitude baroclinic frontal zones,cyclone cycles and unbalanced wind fields during the different stages of the extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone,and also discusses the interaction between them and the developmental mechanism.The results show that there are different developmental mechanisms during each stage of the extratropical transition and the processes are also unbalanced.