Using the improved prospect theory with the linear transformations of rewarding good and punishing bad(RGPBIT),a new investment ranking model for power grid construction projects(PGCPs)is proposed.Given the uncertaint...Using the improved prospect theory with the linear transformations of rewarding good and punishing bad(RGPBIT),a new investment ranking model for power grid construction projects(PGCPs)is proposed.Given the uncertainty of each index value under the market environment,fuzzy numbers are used to describe qualitative indicators and interval numbers are used to describe quantitative ones.Taking into account decision-maker’s subjective risk attitudes,a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)method based on improved prospect theory is proposed.First,the[−1,1]RGPBIT operator is proposed to normalize the original data,to obtain the best andworst schemes of PGCPs.Furthermore,the correlation coefficients between interval/fuzzy numbers and the best/worst schemes are defined and introduced to the prospect theory to improve its value function and loss function,and the positive and negative prospect value matrices of the project are obtained.Then,the optimization model with the maximum comprehensive prospect value is constructed,the optimal attribute weight is determined,and the PGCPs are ranked accordingly.Taking four PGCPs of the IEEERTS-79 node system as examples,an illustration of the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is provided.展开更多
Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such proj...Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such projects and effectively prevent investment risks,this paper proposes an investment optimization decision-making method for multiple power grid construction projects under a certain investment scale.Firstly,an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and development requirements of China’s power grid projects was performed.Thereafter,the time sequence and holographic method was adopted to conduct multi-dimensional,multi-perspective risk assessment of different parts of power grid projects,and a holographic risk assessment index system was developed.Moreover,an investment decision model considering the comprehensive risk based on combination weighting was developed according to the output and input of power grid construction projects.A new combination weighting optimization method that takes into account the investment willingness of enterprises was designed to improve the current weighting evaluation methods.Finally,the validity and applicability of the proposed evaluation method were verified by case examples.展开更多
The construction of intercontinental power grid interconnection projects is key to realizing the vision of Global Energy Interconnection,which is to solve global energy problems in a clean and sustainable manner.These...The construction of intercontinental power grid interconnection projects is key to realizing the vision of Global Energy Interconnection,which is to solve global energy problems in a clean and sustainable manner.These projects may be influenced by a few factors that are neither technological nor economic,such as political,social,and international factors.This paper thus presents a multi-level model for recognizing which factor from a compiled list of 14 would impact a particular intercontinental interconnection project and for assessing the degree of the factor’s influence.In the first part of the model,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method is used to recognize the project’s most significant impact factors.Using the recognition results,the second part of the model can assess the degree of the factor’s influence on the project based on ratings provided by experts.A comprehensive evaluation can thus be provided.As a case study,the proposed Saudi Arabia-Ethiopia power grid interconnection project connecting Asia and Africa was analyzed.Derived from a combination of multiple opinions from experts,evaluations from the model will be of direct benefit to decision-makers,investors,project implementers,and engineers,providing them with a deeper insight into the project.展开更多
文摘Using the improved prospect theory with the linear transformations of rewarding good and punishing bad(RGPBIT),a new investment ranking model for power grid construction projects(PGCPs)is proposed.Given the uncertainty of each index value under the market environment,fuzzy numbers are used to describe qualitative indicators and interval numbers are used to describe quantitative ones.Taking into account decision-maker’s subjective risk attitudes,a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)method based on improved prospect theory is proposed.First,the[−1,1]RGPBIT operator is proposed to normalize the original data,to obtain the best andworst schemes of PGCPs.Furthermore,the correlation coefficients between interval/fuzzy numbers and the best/worst schemes are defined and introduced to the prospect theory to improve its value function and loss function,and the positive and negative prospect value matrices of the project are obtained.Then,the optimization model with the maximum comprehensive prospect value is constructed,the optimal attribute weight is determined,and the PGCPs are ranked accordingly.Taking four PGCPs of the IEEERTS-79 node system as examples,an illustration of the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is provided.
基金supported by the State Grid Science and Technology Project (SGTYHT/16-JS-198)
文摘Power grid construction projects are distinguished by their wide variety,high investment,long payback period,and close relation to national development and human welfare.To improve the investment accuracy in such projects and effectively prevent investment risks,this paper proposes an investment optimization decision-making method for multiple power grid construction projects under a certain investment scale.Firstly,an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and development requirements of China’s power grid projects was performed.Thereafter,the time sequence and holographic method was adopted to conduct multi-dimensional,multi-perspective risk assessment of different parts of power grid projects,and a holographic risk assessment index system was developed.Moreover,an investment decision model considering the comprehensive risk based on combination weighting was developed according to the output and input of power grid construction projects.A new combination weighting optimization method that takes into account the investment willingness of enterprises was designed to improve the current weighting evaluation methods.Finally,the validity and applicability of the proposed evaluation method were verified by case examples.
基金supported by the State Grid Science and Technology Project“Research on Method and Evaluation Principle for the Cross-Continent Power Transmission Planning Scheme”(SGTYHT/16-JS-198)。
文摘The construction of intercontinental power grid interconnection projects is key to realizing the vision of Global Energy Interconnection,which is to solve global energy problems in a clean and sustainable manner.These projects may be influenced by a few factors that are neither technological nor economic,such as political,social,and international factors.This paper thus presents a multi-level model for recognizing which factor from a compiled list of 14 would impact a particular intercontinental interconnection project and for assessing the degree of the factor’s influence.In the first part of the model,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method is used to recognize the project’s most significant impact factors.Using the recognition results,the second part of the model can assess the degree of the factor’s influence on the project based on ratings provided by experts.A comprehensive evaluation can thus be provided.As a case study,the proposed Saudi Arabia-Ethiopia power grid interconnection project connecting Asia and Africa was analyzed.Derived from a combination of multiple opinions from experts,evaluations from the model will be of direct benefit to decision-makers,investors,project implementers,and engineers,providing them with a deeper insight into the project.
