NAFLD fibrosis score:A prognostic predictor for mortality and liver complications among NAFLD patients

AIM:To study whether the severity of liver fibrosis estimated by the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) fibrosis score can predict all-cause mortality,cardiac complications,and/or liver complications of patients with NAFLD over long-term follow-up.METHODS:A cohort of well-characterized patients with NAFLD diagnosed during the period of 1980-2000 was identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project.The NAFLD fibrosis score(NFS) was used to separate NAFLD patients with and without advanced liver fibrosis.We used the NFS score to classify the probability of fibrosis as <-1.5 for low probability,>-1.5 to < 0.67 for intermediate probability,and > 0.67 for high probability.Primary endpoints included allcause death and cardiovascular-and/or liver-related mortality.From the 479 patients with NAFLD assessed,302 patients(63%) greater than 18 years old were included.All patients were followed,and medical charts were reviewed until August 31,2009 or the date when the first primary endpoint occurred.By using a standardized case record form,we recorded a detailed history and physical examination and the use of statins and metformin during the follow-up period.RESULTS:A total of 302/479(63%) NAFLD patients(mean age:47 ± 13 year) were included with a followup period of 12.0 ± 3.9 year.A low probability of advanced fibrosis(NFS <-1.5 at baseline) was found in 181 patients(60%),while an intermediate or high probability of advanced fibrosis(NSF >-1.5) was found in 121 patients(40%).At the end of the follow-up period,55 patients(18%) developed primary endpoints.A total of 39 patients(13%) died during the follow-up.The leading causes of death were non-hepatic malignancy(n = 13/39;33.3%),coronary heart disease(CHD)(n = 8/39;20.5%),and liver-related mortality(n = 5/39;12.8%).Thirty patients had new-onset CHD,whereas 8 of 30 patients(27%) died from CHD-related causes during the follow-up.In a multivariate analysis,a higher NFS at baseline and the presence of new-onset CHD were significantly predictive of death(OR = 2.6 and 9.2,respectively;P < 0.0001).Our study showed a significant,graded relationship between the NFS,as classified into 3 subgroups(low,intermediate and high probability of liver fibrosis),and the occurrence of primary endpoints.The use of metformin or simvastatin for at least 3 mo during the follow-up was associated with fewer deaths in patients with NAFLD(OR = 0.2 and 0.03,respectively;P < 0.05).Additionally,the rate of annual NFS change in patients with an intermediate or high probability of advanced liver fibrosis was significantly lower than those patients with a low probability of advanced liver fibrosis(0.06 vs 0.09,P = 0.004).The annual NFS change in patients who died was significantly higher than those in patients who survived(0.14 vs 0.07,P = 0.03).At the end of the follow-up,we classified the patients into 3 subgroups according to the progression pattern of liver fibrosis by comparing the NFS at baseline to the NFS at the end of the followup period.Most patients were in the stable-fibrosis(60%) and progressive-fibrosis(37%) groups,whereas only 3% were in the regressive fibrosis.CONCLUSION:A higher NAFLD fibrosis score at baseline and a new onset of CHD were significantly predictive of death in patients with NAFLD.

Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, and Neutrophil/lymphocyte and Platelet/lymphocyte Ratios in Different Stages of Silicosis

Until now, although comprehensive management strategies have improved treatment, there are no treatments to alleviate symptoms and slow disease progression[1]. In the past few decades, there has been increasing evidence that inflammation plays a very important role in silicosis. Injury-induced inflammation is an effective strategy to remove harmful stimuli and initiate a healing process. However, it might be harmful to the organism and result in a permanent disease state if the inflammation is prolonged[2].

Development of a prognostic scoring system for hepatic vena cava Budd-Chiari syndrome with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background:Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is a serious complication of hepatic vena cava Budd-Chiari syndrome(HVC-BCS)that significantly reduces the survival time of patients.Our study aimed to analyze the prognostic factors influencing the survival of HVC-BCS patients with HCC and to develop a prognostic scoring system.Methods:The clinical and follow-up data of 64 HVC-BCS patients with HCC who received invasive treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between January 2015 and December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed.Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to analyze the survival curve of patients and the difference in prognoses between the groups.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to analyze the influence of biochemical,tumor,and etiological characteristics on the total survival time of patients,and a new prognostic scoring system was developed according to the regression coefficients of the independent predictors in the statistical model.The prediction efficiency was evaluated using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve and concordance index.Results:Multivariate analysis showed that serum albumin level<34 g/L[hazard ratio(HR)=4.207,95%confidence interval(CI):1.816-8.932,P=0.001],maximum tumor diameter>7 cm(HR=8.623,95%CI:3.771-19.715,P<0.001),and inferior vena cava stenosis(HR=3.612,95%CI:1.646-7.928,P=0.001)were independent predictors of survival.A prognostic scoring system was developed according to the above-mentioned independent predictors,and patients were classified into grades A,B,C and D.Significant differences in survival were found among the four groups.Conclusions:This study successfully developed a prognostic scoring system for HVC-BCS patients with HCC,which is helpful for clinical evaluation of patient prognosis.

Glasgow prognostic score after concurrent chemoradiotherapy is a prognostic factor in advanced head and neck cancer

Objective: This study aims to evaluate the impact and potential prognostic roles of the pre- and post-treatment Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) and the change thereof in patients with advanced head and neck cancer undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Methods: We collected GPS and clinicopathological data of 139 stage III, IVA, and IVB head and neck cancer patients who underwent CCRT between 2008 and 2011. Their GPSs pre- and post-CCRT and the change thereof were analyzed for correlations with recurrence and survival. Results: The GPS changed in 72 (51.8%) patients, with worse scores observed post-CCRT in 65 (90.3%) of the GPS changed patients. Patients in the improved GPS group showed a tendency toward better survival. From the multivariate analysis, the post-CCRT GPS level was an independent prognostic factor in addition to tumor stage. Conclusions: After CCRT, a high GPS was revealed to be an important predictor of survival for advanced head and neck cancer.

Prognostic value of neutrophil/lymphocyte,platelet/lymphocyte,lymphocyte/monocyte ratios and Glasgow prognostic score in osteosarcoma:A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Some studies investigated the prognostic role of several blood biomarkers,including the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(NLR),platelet/lymphocyte ratio(PLR),lymphocyte/monocyte ratio(LMR)and Glasgow prognostic score(GPS),in osteosarcoma,but their results were inconsistent with each other.AIM To identify the prognostic value of NLR,PLR,LMR and GPS in osteosarcoma patients through reviewing relevant studies.METHODS The PubMed,EMBASE,Web of Science and CNKI databases were searched up to October 2,2021.The primary and second outcomes were overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS),respectively.The hazard ratios(HRs)with 95%confidence intervals(CIs)were combined to assess the association between these indicators and prognosis of osteosarcoma patients.RESULTS A total of 13 studies involving 2087 patients were eventually included.The pooled results demonstrated that higher NLR and GPS were significantly associated with poorer OS(HR=1.88,95%CI:1.38-2.55,P<0.001;HR=2.19,95%CI:1.64-2.94,P<0.001)and DFS(HR=1.67,95%CI:1.37-2.04,P<0.001;HR=2.50,95%CI:1.39-4.48,P<0.001).However,no significant relationship of PLR and LMR and OS(P=0.085;P=0.338)and DFS(P=0.396;P=0.124)was observed.CONCLUSION Higher NLR and GPS were related with worse prognosis and might serve as novel prognostic indicators for osteosarcoma patients.

Comparison of Prognostic Scores for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in the Hepato-Gastro-Enterology Department of Campus Teaching Hospital of Lome

Objective: To evaluate and compare the prognostic contribution of different UGIB prognostic scores. Patients and Method: Descriptive cross-sectional study with retrospective collection conducted from January 2014 to December 2019. Patients hospitalized in the Gastroenterology Department of Campus Teaching Hospital of Lome for upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage were included. The analytical component of this study had consisted of an evaluation of the sensitivity and specificity of different prognostic scores (GBS, mGBS, FRS, CRS, AIMS65) in predicting the occurrence of death and/or re-bleeding within 42 days. These different scores were compared using ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves. Results: We included 314 patients in our study. The male to female sex ratio was 2.48. Fibroscopy found non-related portal hypertension UGIB in 70.94% of the cases. The “FRS” was the most accurate score in predicting death or re-bleeding in all patients. The “FRS” was the most precise score in predicting the occurrence of spotting in all patients. The “FRS” was the most accurate score in predicting death among all patients. The mortality of patients at low risk of death (below the threshold value) was 2.2% for the “FRS”, 9.3% for the “CRS”, 0% for the “GBS” (p = 0.565), 50% for the “mGBS” and 11.4% for the “AIMS65”. Scores were more accurate for non-related portal hypertension UGIB. Conclusion: The “FRS” and the “CRS” are two precise scores in predicting the occurrence of an incident in the event of upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. However, these scores were less effective in related portal hypertension UGIB.

Day 100 Absolute Monocyte/Lymphocyte Prognostic Score and Survival Post Autologous Peripheral Blood Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

Day 100 prognostic factors post-autologous peripheral blood hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (APBHSCT) to predict clinical outcomes in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients have not been studied. Thus, we retrospectively examined if day 100 absolute monocyte/lymphocyte prognostic score (AMLPS-100) affects clinical outcomes by landmark analysis from day 100 post-APBHSCT in DLBCL. Only DLBCL patients in complete remission at day 100 post-APBHSCT were evaluated. From 2000 to 2007, 134 consecutive DLBCL patients are qualified for the study. Patients with a day 100 absolute monocyte count (AMC-100) ≥ 630 cells/μL and day 100 absolute lymphocyte count (ALC-100) ≤ 1000 cells/μL experienced inferior overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). On multivariate analysis, the AMC-100 and ALC-100 remained independent predictors of OS and PFS. Combining both values into the AMLPS-100, the 5-year OS rates for low, intermediate, and high AMLPS-100 risk groups were 94% (95% CI, 83.0% - 98.1%), 70% (95% CI, 58.6% - 80.1%), and 13% (95% CI, 3.4% - 40.5%), respectively;and the 5-year PFS rates were 87% (95% CI, 74.0% - 94.1%), 68% (95% CI, 56.0% - 77.8%), and 13% (95% CI, 3.4% - 40.5%), respectively. The AMLPS-100 is a simple biomarker score that can stratify clinical outcomes from day 100 post-APBHSCT in DLBCL patients.

Comparison between hepatocellular carcinoma prognostic scores:A 10-year single-center experience and brief review of the current literature

BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)represents the most common primitive liver malignancy.A relevant concern involves the lack of agreement on staging systems,prognostic scores,and treatment allocation algorithms.AIM To compare the survival rates among already developed prognostic scores.METHODS We retrospectively evaluated 140 patients with HCC diagnosed between February 2006 and November 2017.Patients were categorized according to 15 prognostic scoring systems and estimated median survivals were compared with those available from the current medical literature.RESULTS The median overall survival of the cohort of patients was 35(17;67)mo,and it was statistically different in relation to treatment choice,ultrasound surveillance,and serum alpha-fetoprotein.The Italian Liver Cancer(ITA.LI.CA)tumor staging system performed best in predicting survival according to stage allocation among all 15 evaluated prognostic scores.Using the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system,28.6%,40.7%,22.1%,and 8.6%of patients fell within stages 0-1,2-3,4-5 and>5 respectively.The median survival was 57.9 mo for stages 0-1,43 mo for stages 2-3,21.7 mo for stages 4-5,and 10.4 mo for stage>5.The 1-,3-,and 5-year survival rates were respectively 95%,65%,and 20%,for stages 0-1;94.7%,43.9%and 26.3%for stages 2-3;71%,25.8%and 16.1%for stages 4-5;and 50%,16.7%and 8.3%for stage>5.At the same time,although statistically significant in prognostic stratification,the most commonly used Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system showed one of the most relevant differences in median survival,especially for stages A and C,when compared to the medical literature.In fact,10.7%,59.3%,27.1%,1.4%,and 0%of patients were stratified into stages 0,A,B,C,and D respectively.The median survival was>81.1 mo for stage 0,44.9 mo for stage A,21.3 mo for stage B,and 3.1 mo for stage C.The 1-,3-,and 5-year survival rates were respectively 86.7%,60%,and 46.7%for stage 0;91.6%,50.6%,and 20.5%for stage A;73.7%,23.7%and 13.2%for stage B;and 2%,0%and 0%for stage C.CONCLUSION Survival analysis shows excellent prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA scoring system compared to other staging systems.

Prognostic scores in primary biliary cholangitis patients with advanced disease

BACKGROUND Due to the chronic progressive disease characteristics of primary biliary cholangitis(PBC),patients with advanced PBC should not be ignored.Most prognostic score studies have focused on early stage PBC.AIM To compare the prognostic value of various risk scores in advanced PBC to help PBC patients obtain more monitoring and assessment.METHODS This study considered patients diagnosed with PBC during hospitalization between 2015 and 2021.The clinical stage was primarily middle and late,and patients usually took ursodeoxycholic acid(UDCA)after diagnosis.The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at baseline and after 1 year of UDCA treatment.Telephone follow-up was conducted to analyze the course and disease-associated outcomes.The follow-up deadline was December 31,2021.We compared the risk score indexes between those patients who reached a composite end point of death or liver transplantation(LT)and those who remained alive at the deadline.The combined performance of prognostic scores in estimating the risk of death or LT after 1 year of UDCA treatment was assessed using Cox regression analyses.Predictive accuracy was evaluated by comparing predicted and actual survival through Kaplan-Meier analyses.RESULTS We included 397 patients who were first diagnosed with PBC during hospitalization and received UDCA treatment;most disease stages were advanced.After an average of 6.4±1.4 years of follow-up,82 patients had died,and 4 patients had undergone LT.After receiving UDCA treatment for 1 year,the score with the best discrimination performance was the Mayo,with a concordance statistic of 0.740(95%confidence interval:0.690-0.791).The albumin-bilirubin,GLOBE,and Mayo scores tended to overestimate transplant-free survival.Comparing 7 years of calibration results showed that the Mayo score was the best model.CONCLUSION The Mayo,GLOBE,UK-PBC,and ALBI scores demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for advanced stage PBC.The Mayo score showed optimal discriminatory performance and excellent predictive accuracy.

Novel prognostic score for patients with gastric carcinoma

Objective:The lack of a simple criterion for gastric carcinoma creates a persistent challenge for clinicians trying to provide patients with useful prognostic information.The aim of this study was to identify baseline prognostic factors,and use this information to establish a simple criterion to predict outcome in gastric carcinoma.Methods:Between 2005 and 2010, 155 patients with gastric carcinoma,were enrolled.Clinicopathologic prognostic factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis.Results:Of the 155 patients,48(30.9%)died.Three independent poor prognostic factors were identified by multivariate analysis:gross type>or=3(hazard ratio[HR],1.564;95%CI,1.067 to 2.294),peritoneal dissemination (HR,3.750;95%CI,1.760 to 7.989)and lymphatic duct invasion(HR,3.578;95%CI,1.422 to 9.004).One point was added for each category among three independent prognostic factors.Prognostic score(PS)was determined by an aggregate of these points for each category.There existed a significant difference between survival of patients with PS 0 or 1 and 2(P< 0.0001).Conclusion:Three poor prognostic factors were identified and a simple criteria was devised.Information from this analysis can be used to predict prognosis of gastric carcinoma with a strict stratification.

Risk factors for occult metastasis detected by inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor markers in biliary tract cancer

BACKGROUND Radiological detection of small liver metastasis or peritoneal metastasis is still difficult,and some patients with biliary tract cancer(BTC)are unresectable after laparotomy.Staging laparoscopy may help avoid unnecessary laparotomy.However,which category of BTC is amenable with staging laparoscopy remains unclear.AIM To clarify the risk factors for occult metastasis in patients with BTC.METHODS Medical records of patients with BTC who underwent surgery at our institution between January 2008 and June 2014 were retrospectively reviewed.The patients were divided into two groups,according to resection or exploratory laparotomy(EL).Preoperative laboratory data,including inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor markers,were compared between the two groups.Prognostic importance of detected risk factors was also evaluated.RESULTS A total of 236 patients were enrolled in this study.Twenty-six(11%)patients underwent EL.Among the EL patients,there were 16 cases of occult metastasis(7 liver metastases and 9 abdominal disseminations).Serum carcinoembryonic antigen level,carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level,neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and modified Glasgow prognostic score were significantly higher in the EL group than in the resected group,and these factors were prognostic.Among these factors,carcinoembryonic antigen>7 ng/mL was the most useful to predict occult metastasis in BTC.When patients have more than three of these positive factors,the rate of occult metastasis increases.CONCLUSION Inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor markers are useful in detecting occult metastasis in BTC;based on these factors,staging laparoscopy may reduce the rate of EL.

Systemic inflammation in colorectal cancer: Underlying factors,effects, and prognostic significance

Systemic inflammation is a marker of poor prognosis preoperatively present in around 20%-40%of colorectal cancer patients.The hallmarks of systemic inflammation include an increased production of proinflammatory cytokines and acute phase proteins that enter the circulation.While the low-level systemic inflammation is often clinically silent,its consequences are many and may ultimately lead to chronic cancer-associated wasting,cachexia.In this review,we discuss the pathogenesis of cancer-related systemic inflammation,explore the role of systemic inflammation in promoting cancer growth,escaping antitumor defense,and shifting metabolic pathways,and how these changes are related to less favorable outcome.

Novel immunological and nutritional-based prognostic index for gastric cancer

AIM: To assess the prognostic significance of immunological and nutritional-based indices, including the prognostic nutritional index(PNI), neutrophillymphocyte ratio(NLR), and platelet-lymphocyte ratio in gastric cancer.METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 632 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy between1998 and 2008. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to compare the predictive ability of the indices, together with estimating the sensitivity, specificity and agreement rate.Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for overall survival(OS). Propensity score analysis was performed to adjust variables to control for selection bias.RESULTS: Each index could predict OS in gastric cancer patients in univariate analysis, but only PNI had independent prognostic significance in multivariate analysis before and after adjustment with propensity scoring(hazard ratio, 1.668; 95% confidence interval:1.368-2.035). In subgroup analysis, a low PNI predicted a significantly shorter OS in patients with stage Ⅱ-Ⅲ disease(P = 0.019, P < 0.001), T3-T4 tumors(P <0.001), or lymph node metastasis(P < 0.001). Canton score, a combination of PNI, NLR, and platelet, was a better indicator for OS than PNI, with the largest area under the curve for 12-, 36-, 60-mo OS and overall OS(P = 0.022, P = 0.030, P < 0.001, and P = 0.024,respectively). The maximum sensitivity, specificity, and agreement rate of Canton score for predicting prognosis were 84.6%, 34.9%, and 70.1%, respectively.CONCLUSION: PNI is an independent prognostic factor for OS in gastric cancer. Canton score can be a novel preoperative prognostic index in gastric cancer.

Advances in prognostic factors in acute pancreatitis:a mini-review

BACKGROUND:Early assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis is essential to the proper management of the disease.It is dependent on the criteria of the Atlanta classification system.DATA SOURCES:PubMed search of recent relevant articles was performed to identify information about the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.RESULTS:The scoring systems included the Ranson’s or Glasgow’s criteria ≥3,the APACHE II classification system ≥8,and the Balthazar’s criteria ≥4 according to the computed tomography enhanced scanning findings.The single factors on admission included age >65 years,obesity,hemoconcentration(>44%),abnormal chest X-ray,creatinine >2 mg/dl,C-reactive protein>150 mg/dl,procalcitonin >1.8 ng/ml,albumin <2.5 mg/dl,calcium <8.5 mg/dl,early hyperglycemia,increased intra-abdominal pressure,macrophage migration inhibitory factor,or a combination of IL-10 >50 pg/ml with calcium <6.6 mg/dl.CONCLUSION:The prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis is largely based on well defined multiple factor scoring systems as well as several single risk factors.

A new tumor-associated antigen prognostic scoring system for spontaneous ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma after partial hepatectomy

Objective:Spontaneous hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)rupture can be fatal,and hepatic resection could achieve a favorable long-term survival among all strategies of tumor rupture.However,there is no available prognostic scoring system for patients with ruptured HCC who underwent partial hepatectomy.Methods:From January 2005 to May 2015,129 patients with spontaneous HCC rupture underwent partial hepatectomy.Preoperative clinical data were collected and analyzed.Independent risk factors affecting overall survival(OS)were used to develop the new scoring system.Harrell’s C statistics,Akaike information criterion(AIC),the relative likelihood,and the log likelihood ratio were calculated to measure the homogeneity and discriminatory ability of a prognostic system.Results:In the multivariable Cox regression analysis,three factors,including tumor size,preoperativeα-fetoprotein level,and alkaline phosphatase level,were chosen for the new tumor-associated antigen(TAA)prognostic scoring system.The 1-year OS rates were 88.1%,43.2%,and 30.2%for TAA scores of 0–5 points(low-risk group),6–9 points(moderate-risk group),and 10–13points(high-risk group),respectively.The TAA scoring system had superior homogeneity and discriminatory ability(Harrell’s C statistics,0.693 vs.0.627 and 0.634;AIC,794.79 vs.817.23 and 820.16;relative likelihood,both<0.001;and log likelihood ratio,45.21 vs.22.77 and 21.84)than the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system and the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program in predicting OS.Similar results were found while predicting disease-free survival(DFS).Conclusions:The new prognostic scoring system is simple and effective in predicting both OS and DFS of patients with spontaneous ruptured HCC.

A radiomics prognostic scoring system for predicting progression-free survival in patients with stageⅣnon-small cell lung cancer treated with platinum-based chemotherapy

Objective:To develop and validate a radiomics prognostic scoring system(RPSS)for prediction of progressionfree survival(PFS)in patients with stageⅣnon-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC)treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.Methods:In this retrospective study,four independent cohorts of stageⅣNSCLC patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy were included for model construction and validation(Discovery:n=159;Internal validation:n=156;External validation:n=81,Mutation validation:n=64).First,a total of 1,182 three-dimensional radiomics features were extracted from pre-treatment computed tomography(CT)images of each patient.Then,a radiomics signature was constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method(LASSO)penalized Cox regression analysis.Finally,an individualized prognostic scoring system incorporating radiomics signature and clinicopathologic risk factors was proposed for PFS prediction.Results:The established radiomics signature consisting of 16 features showed good discrimination for classifying patients with high-risk and low-risk progression to chemotherapy in all cohorts(All P<0.05).On the multivariable analysis,independent factors for PFS were radiomics signature,performance status(PS),and N stage,which were all selected into construction of RPSS.The RPSS showed significant prognostic performance for predicting PFS in discovery[C-index:0.772,95%confidence interval(95%CI):0.765-0.779],internal validation(C-index:0.738,95%CI:0.730-0.746),external validation(C-index:0.750,95%CI:0.734-0.765),and mutation validation(Cindex:0.739,95%CI:0.720-0.758).Decision curve analysis revealed that RPSS significantly outperformed the clinicopathologic-based model in terms of clinical usefulness(All P<0.05).Conclusions:This study established a radiomics prognostic scoring system as RPSS that can be conveniently used to achieve individualized prediction of PFS probability for stageⅣNSCLC patients treated with platinumbased chemotherapy,which holds promise for guiding personalized pre-therapy of stageⅣNSCLC.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for patients with hepatorenal syndrome:A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Hepatorenal syndrome(HRS)is a severe complication of cirrhosis with high mortality,which necessitates accurate clinical decision.However,studies on prognostic factors and scoring systems to predict overall survival of HRS are not enough.Meanwhile,a multicenter cohort study with a long span of time could be more convincing.AIM To develop a novel and effective prognostic model for patients with HRS and clarify new prognostic factors.METHODS We retrospectively enrolled 1667 patients from four hospitals,and 371 eligible patients were finally analyzed to develop and validate a novel prognostic model for patients with HRS.Characteristics were compared between survivors and non-survivors,and potential prognostic factors were selected according to the impact on 28-d mortality.Accuracy in predicting 28-d mortality was compared between the novel and other scoring systems,including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease(MELD),Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(CLIF-SOFA),and Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis BAcute-on-Chronic Liver Failure(COSSH-ACLF).RESULTS Five prognostic factors,comprised of gender,international normalized ratio,mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration,neutrophil percentage,and stage,were integrated into a new score,GIMNS;stage is a binary variable defined by the number of failed organs.GIMNS was positively correlated with MELD,CLIFSOFA,and COSSH-ACLF.Additionally,it had better accuracy[area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC):0.830]than MELD(AUROC:0.759),CLIF-SOFA(AUROC:0.767),and COSSH-ACLF(AUROC:0.759)in the derivation cohort(P<0.05).It performed better than MELD and CLIF-SOFA in the validation cohort(P<0.050)and had a higher AUROC than COSSH-ACLF(P=0.122).CONCLUSION We have developed a new scoring system,GIMNS,to predict 28-d mortality of HRS patients.Mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and stage were first proposed and found to be related to the mortality of HRS.Additionally,the GIMNS score showed better accuracy than MELD and CLIF-SOFA,and the AUROC was higher than that of COSSH-ACLF.

Evaluation of prognostic factors and scoring system in colonic perforation

AIM: To study the significance of scoring systems assessing severity and prognostic factors in patients with colonic perforation. METHODS: A total of 26 patients (9 men, 17 women; mean age 72.7 ± 11.6 years) underwent emergency operation for colorectal perforation in our institution between 1993 and 2005. Several clinical factors were measured preoperatively and 24 h postoperatively. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ), Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) and peritonitis index of Altona (PIA Ⅱ) scores were calculated preoperatively. RESULTS: Overall postoperative mortality rate was 23.1% (6 patients). Compared with survivors, non- survivors displayed low blood pressure, low serum protein and high serum creatinine preoperatively, and low blood pressure, low white blood cell count, low pH, low PaO2/FiO2, and high serum creatinine postoperatively. APACHE Ⅱ score was significantly lower in survivors than in non-survivors (10.4 ± 3.84 vs 19.3 ± 2.87, P = 0.00003). Non-survivors tended to display high MPI score and low PIA Ⅱ score, but no signif icant difference was identif ied. CONCLUSION: Pre- and postoperative blood pressure and serum creatinine level appear related to prognosis of colonic perforation. APACHE Ⅱ score is most associated with prognosis and scores ≥ 20 are associated with signif icantly increased mortality rate.

Prognostic significance of hemoglobin,albumin,lymphocyte,platelet in gastrointestinal stromal tumors:A propensity matched retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND The combined index of hemoglobin,albumin,lymphocyte,and platelet(HALP)can reflect systemic inflammation and nutritional status simultaneously,with some evidence revealing its prognostic value for some tumors.However,the effect of HALP on recurrence-free survival(RFS)in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors(GISTs)has not been reported.AIM To investigate the prognostic value of HALP in GIST patients.METHODS Data from 591 untreated patients who underwent R0 resection for primary and localized GISTs at West China Hospital between December 2008 and December 2016 were included.Clinicopathological data,preoperative albumin,blood routine information,postoperative treatment,and recurrence status were recorded.To eliminate baseline inequivalence,the propensity scores matching(PSM)method was introduced.Ultimately,the relationship between RFS and preoperative HALP was investigated.RESULTS The optimal cutoff value for HALP was determined to be 31.5 by X-tile analysis.HALP was significantly associated with tumor site,tumor size,mitosis,Ki67,National Institutes of Health(NIH)risk category,and adjuvant therapy(all P<0.001).Before PSM,GIST patients with an increased HALP had a significantly poor RFS(P<0.001),and low HALP was an independent risk factor for poor RFS[hazard ratio(HR):0.506,95%confidence interval(95%CI):0.291-0.879,P=0.016].In NIH high-risk GIST patients,GIST patients with low HALP had a worse RFS than patients with high HALP(P<0.05).After PSM,458 GIST patients were identified;those with an increased HALP still had significantly poor RFS after PSM(P<0.001)and low HALP was still an independent risk factor for poor RFS(HR:0.558,95%CI:0.319-0.976,P=0.041).CONCLUSION HALP was significantly correlated with postoperative pathology and postoperative treatment.Furthermore,HALP showed a strong ability to predict RFS in GIST patients who underwent radical resection.

Ayman Abd Al-maksoud Yousef, MD, Series Editor Prognostic categorization of intensive care septic patients

Sepsis is one of the leading worldwide causes of morbidity and mortality in critically-ill patients. Prediction of outcome in patients with sepsis requires repeated clinical interpretation of the patients' conditions, clinical assessment of tissue hypoxia and the use of severity scoring systems, because the prognostic categorization accuracy of severity scoring indices alone, is relatively poor. Generally, such categorization depends on the severity of the septic state, ranging from systemic inflammatory response to septic shock. Now, there is no gold standard for the clinical assessment of tissue hypoxia which can be achieved by both global and regional oxygen extractabilities, added to prognostic pro-inflammatory mediators. Because the technology used to identify the genetic make-up of the human being is rapidly advancing, the structure of 30 000 genes which make-up the human DNA bank is now known. This would allow easy prognostic categorization of critically-ill patients including those suffering from sepsis. The present review spots lights on the main severity scoring systems used for outcome prediction in septic patients. For morbidity prediction, it discusses the Multiple Organ Dysfunction score, the sequential organ failure assessment score, and the logistic organdysfunction score. For mortality/survival prediction, it discusses the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation scores, the Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System, the Simplified acute physiology score and the Mortality Probability Models. An ideal severity scoring system for prognostic categorization of patients with systemic sepsis is far from being reached. Scoring systems should be used with repeated clinical interpretation of the patients' conditions, and the assessment of tissue hypoxia in order to attain satisfactory discriminative performance and calibration power.