Multi-time scale analysis of precipitation variation in Guyuan, China:1957-2005

Morlet wavelet transformation is used in this paper to analyze the multi time scale characteristics of pre cipitation data series from 1957 to 2005 in Guyuan region.The results showed that(1) the annual precipitation evo lution process had obvious multi time scale variation characteristics of 15 25 years,7 12 years and 3 6 years,and different time scales had different oscillation energy densities;(2) the periods at smaller time scales changed more frequently,which often nested in a biggish quasi periodic oscillations,so the concrete time domain should be ana lyzed if necessary;(3) the precipitation had three main periods(22 year,9 year and 4 year) and the 22 year period was especially outstanding,and the analysis of this main period reveals that the precipitation would be in a relative high water period until about 2012.

Effects of precipitation variation on severe acid rain in southern China

Acid rain has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China since the 1980s, but little is known about the effects of the climatic change in regional precipitation on the temporal and spatial variability of severe acid rain. We present the effects of the regional precipitation trend change on the area and intensity of severe acid rain in southern China, and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of SO2 and NO2 concentrations are analyzed on the basis of SO2 and NO2 column concentration data. The results are as follows. （1） The emission levels of SO2 and NO2 have reached or passed the precipitation scavenging capacity in parts of southern China owing to the emission totals of SOz and NO2 increasing from 1993 to 2004. （2） Notable changes in the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain occurred mainly in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1993-2004. With an abrupt change in 1999, the severe acid rain regions were mainly located in central and western China during 1993-1999 and moved obviously eastward to the south of the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River with the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain increasing significantly from 2000 to 2004. （3） The spatial distribution and variation in the seasonal precipitation change rate of more than 10 mm/10a are similar to those of severe acid rain in southern China. An abrupt change in 1999 is seen for winter and summer precipitation, the same as for the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain in southern China. The significant increase in summer storm precipitation from 1991 to 1999 mitigated the annual precipitation acidity in the south of the Yangtze River and reduced the area of severe acid rainfall. On the other hand, the decrease in storm rainfall in summer expanded the area of severe acid rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River in 2000-2006. Therefore, the change in seasonal precipitation is an important factor in the severe acid rain regions moving eastward and expanding in southern China.

Historical temporal variation in precipitation over Western Himalayan Region：1857-2006

This study has examined the temporal variation in monthly, seasonal & annual precipitation over the Western Himalayan Region(WHR) and the influence of global teleconnections, like the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and Southern Oscillation(SO) Indices on seasonal & annual precipitation. The Mann–Kendall non-parametric test is applied for trend detection and the Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test is used to detect possible shift. Maximum entropy spectral analysis is applied to find the periodicity in annual & seasonal precipitation. The study shows a non-significant decreasing trend in annual precipitation over WHR for the period 1857-2006. However, in seasonal precipitation, a significant decreasing trend is observed in monsoon and a significant increasing trend in post-monsoon season during the same period. The significant decrease in monsoon precipitation may be due to weakening of its teleconnection with NAO as well as SO Indices mainly during last three decades. It is observed that the probable change of year in annual & monsoon precipitation over WHR is 1979. The study also shows significant periodicities of 2.3-2.9 years and of 3.9-4.7 years in annual & seasonal precipitation over WHR.

MULTI-TIMESCALE VARIATIONS OF SOMALI JET AND ITS RELATION WITH PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Based on the ERA reanalysis winds data, the multi-time scale variations of Somali jet are analyzed synthetically. The jet's influences on rainfall in China on interannual, interdecadal and sub-monthly scales are also studied using correlation and composite analyses. The results demonstrate that the interdecadal variations of the jet are significant.The Somali jet became weaker in the 1960 s and became the weakest in the early 1970 s before enhancing slowly in the late 1970 s. Moreover, the relation between the Somali jet and summer precipitation in China is close, but varies on different timescales. Preliminary analysis shows that the intensity variations in May and June during the early days of establishment are well correlated with summer precipitation in China. The Somali jet intensity on the interdecadal scale is closely related with interdecadal variations of the precipitation in China. Regardless of leading or contemporaneous correlation, the correlations between the Somali jet intensity and the rainfall in northern and southern China show obvious interdecadal variations. Moreover, the link between the anomalies of the jet intensity in May-August and precipitation evolution on synoptic scale in China is further studied. China has more rainfall with positive anomalies of the Somali jet but less rainfall with negative anomalies during the active period of the jet. The influence of positive Somali jet anomalies on China precipitation is more evident.

Some Annual Variation Characteristics for the Northern Hemispheric Monthly Mean Precipitation Fields

By the utilization of monthly precipitation data from all stations in the Northern Hemisphere annexed to the 'World Survey of climatology, Vol. 1-15', the distributions of the maximum precipitation months (MPM), the annual relative precipitation (ARP) and the monthly relative precipitation (percent of annual) in January and July are respectively mapped. Moreover the distributions of intermonthly relative precipitation variabilities from January to December are plotted as well. From these figures, the precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may be classified into three types(continental, oceanic and transitional types) and 17 regions. The precipitation regime may also be divided into two patterns, the global and regional patterns. The global pattern consists of planetary front system and ITCZ and its inter-monthly variation shows the north-and-south shift of the rain belt; the regional pattern consists of the sea-land monsoon and plateau monsoon regime, in which the inter-monthly variation of rain belt shows a east-and-wcst shift.

Peculiar Temporal Structure of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon

Beijing located at the junction of four major components of the Asian-Australia monsoon system (the Indian, the western North Pacific, the East Asian subtropical, and the Indonesian-Australian monsoons), the monsoon climate over the South China Sea (SCS) exhibits some unique features. Evidences are presented in this paper to reveal and document the following distinctive features in the temporal structure of the SCS summer monsoon: (1) pronounced monsoon singularities in the lower tropospheric monsoon flows which include the pre-onset and withdrawal easterly surges and the southwesterly monsoon bursts at Julian pentad 34-35 (June 15-24) and pentad 46-47 (August 14-23); (2) four prominent subseasonal cycles (alternative occurrences of climatological active and break monsoons); (3) considerably larger year-to-year variations in convective activity on intraseasonal time scale compared to those over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea; (4) the redness of the climatological mean spectrum of precipitation/deep convection on synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the central SCS; (5) a remarkable asymmetry in the seasonal transitions between summer and winter monsoons and an extremely abrupt mid-May transition (the outburst of monsoon rain and the sudden switch in the lower troposphere winds from an easterly to a westerly regime); (6) the bi-modal interannual variation of summer monsoon onset (normal and delayed modes). In addition, the monsoon rainfall displays enormous east-west gradient over the central SCS. Possible causes for these features are discussed. A number of specific science questions concerning some of the peculiar features are raised for the forthcoming SCS monsoon experiment to address.

Effects of PHC on Water Quality of Jiaozhou BayⅢ.Land Transfer Process

Based on investigation data of PHC content in Jiaozhou Bay,China from 1979 to 1983,the seasonal variations of PHC content and monthly changes of precipitation in Jiaozhou Bay were analyzed. The results showed that seen from the spatial and temporal distribution,the seasonal variation of PHC content in the surface water of Jiaozhou Bay was based on the flow of the rivers as well as human activity,so PHC content in the rivers depended on the flow of the rivers and human activity,and the peaks and valleys of PHC content appeared in various seasons. The seasonal variation of PHC content in the surface water of Jiaozhou Bay depended on its land transfer process. The land transfer process was composed of use of PHC by mankind,deposition of PHC in soil and on the earth＇s surface,and transportation of PHC to offshore waters of sea by rivers and surface runoff. PHC content depended on mankind during the process from being used to entering soil and on precipitation during the process of being transported from soil to ocean.

Glacier changes in the eastern Nyainqêntanglha Range of Tibetan Plateau from 1975 to 2013

Maritime-type glaciers in the eastern Nyainqêntanglha Range, located in the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, are an important water source for downstream residents and ecological systems. To better understand the variability of glaciers in this region, we used the band ratio threshold（TM3/TM5 for the Landsat TM /ETM＋ and TM4/TM6 for Landsat OLI） to extract glacier outlines in ~1999 and ~2013. After that, we also generated a series of glacier boundaries and monitored glacier variations in the past 40 years with the help of the Chinese Glacier Inventory data（1975） and Landsat TM, ETM＋ and OLI data. The total glacier area decreased by 37.69 ± 2.84% from 1975 to 2013. The annual percentage area change（APAC） was ~1.32% a-1 and ~1.29% a-1 in the periods 1975-1999 and 1999-2013, respectively. According to the lag theory, the reaction time is probably about 10 years and we discuss the variations of temperature and precipitation between 1965 and 2011. Temperature and precipitation increased between 1965 and 2011 at a rate of 0.34°C /10 a and 15.4 mm/10 a, respectively. Extensive meteorological data show that the glacier shrinkage rate over the period may be mainly due to increasing air temperature, while the increasing precipitation partly made up for the mass loss of glacier ice resulting from increasing temperature may also lead to the low APAC between 1999 and 2013. The lag theory suggests that glacier shrinkage may accelerate in the next 10 years. Small glaciers were more sensitive to climate change, and there was a normal distribution between glacier area and elevation. Glaciers shrank in all aspects, and south aspects diminished faster than others.

Climatological Characteristics of Summer Precipitation over East Asia Measured by TRMM PR:A Review

Precipitation is an important indicator of climate change and a critical process in the hydrological cycle, on both the global and regional scales. Methods of precipitation observation and associated analyses are of strategic importance in global climate change research. As the first space-based radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Precipitation Radar （PR） has been in operation for almost 17 years and has acquired a huge amount of cloud and pre- cipitation data that provide a distinctive view to help expose the nature of cloud and precipitation in the tropics and subtropics. In this paper we review recent advances in summer East Asian precipitation climatology studies based on long-term TRMM PR measurements in the following three aspects： （1） the three-dimensional structure of precipita- tion, （2） the diurnal variation of precipitation, and （3） the recent precipitation trend. Additionally, some importantprospects regarding satellite remote sensing of precipitation and its application in the near future are discussed.

Multi model forecast biases of the diurnal variations of intense rainfall in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Forecasts of the intense rainfall events are important for the disaster prevention and reduction in the Beijing-TianjinHebei region(BTHR). What are the common biases in the forecasts of intense rainfall in the current operational numerical models? What are the possible causes of model bias? In this study, intense rainfall events in the BTHR were categorized into two types: those mainly due to strong synoptic forcings(SSF) and those with weak synoptic forcings(WSF). The results showed that,the numerical forecasts tend to overestimate the frequency of intense rainfall events but underestimate the rainfall intensity. Of these, the overestimation of precipitation frequency mainly appeared in the mountainous areas in the afternoon. Compared with global models, high-resolution mesoscale models showed a notable improvement in forecasting the afternoon intense rainfall,while they all have an obvious bias in forecasting the nighttime rainfall. For the WSF type, both global model and mesoscale model have a low forecast skill, with large biases in subdaily propagation feature. The possible causes are related to a poor performance of the model in reproducing the local thermodynamical circulations and the dynamical processes in the planetary boundary layer. So, the biases in forecasting the WSF type intense rainfall showed notable features of nonlinearity, which made it really challenging to understand their physical processes and to improve the associated forecasts.