Determining the Epicenter of a Future Short-Focus Earthquake Tens of Hours before Earthquake and Reducing the Magnitude of an Impending Catastrophic Earthquake

The article describes a project proposed to determine the epicenter of a future short-focus earthquake tens of hours before and to reduce the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake. It focuses on developing a physical model to determine the conditions necessary for the start of an earthquake, for a method based on the registration of flows of mercury vapor in the gas rising from the Earth. This model gives an explanation of why an earthquake precursor appears so early (such a long period of time can range from a few to hundreds of hours). Normally, the characteristic times of an earthquake precursor for seismic methods are tens of seconds. The project is based on the physical and mathematical models of an earthquake. The derived formula for the time of the precursor of a future earthquake allows us to explain and to describe the time increase for the precursor, depending on the magnitude of the earthquake. The method of reducing the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake is based on the proposed physical model of the onset of an earthquake and is implemented by the action of a vibration source in the region of the detected earthquake epicenter. The proposed system should save citizens, lives from future short-focus earthquakes.

On Reducing the Magnitude of an Impending Catastrophic Earthquake

This article develops the ideas presented in the previous article, justifying the project proposed to determine the epicenter of a future short-focus earthquake tens of hours before the earthquake and the project to reduce the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake. A physical and mathematical model of the prototype of a mercury earthquake precursor sensor is proposed, and the signal received by the old sensor is calculated. Analysis of an existing sensor prototype provides an understanding of physical processes and shows the fundamental advantage of the new sensor. An approach is formulated to explain the physical mechanism for reducing the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake. A vibrator described in the literature is considered, the effectiveness of which for reducing the magnitude of future catastrophic short-focus earthquakes is estimated by the calculations of the long time of the earthquake precursor. The requirements for future specialized vibrators for the purpose of Reducing the Magnitude of an Impending Catastrophic Earthquake are formulated.

The Chemical Channel of Earthquake Reactions and Decrease in the Magnitude of Earthquakes

The first necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake is the penetration of explosive gas into an explosive zone as a result of physical or chemical reaction. The second necessary condition is to ensure the subsequent propagation of the flame after ignition. The latter condition has made it possible to explain the impact of a cyclone on the emergence of 42 strongest earthquakes in the 21st century. If violation of this condition can be achieved with the help of vibrators or explosions, this will result in a decrease in the magnitude of an earthquake or even a complete prevention of earthquakes. Thus, the second condition is essentially a “pressure lock” that opens (with a decrease in the pressure caused by a cyclone), which leads to an earthquake or closes (with an increase in the pressure caused by an anticyclone or human interference using vibrators or explosions), which leads to earthquake prevention. Kinetic equations of the 2nd type were used to describe chemical reactions and obtain formulas for the precursor time, which made it possible to describe earthquakes of the chemical channel. The set of experimental time values of the earthquake precursor described by the physical model includes about 20% of all earthquakes;80% of earthquakes can be attributed to the chemical channel for earthquakes that occurred in Dushanbe in 1983. All earthquakes in Tiberias in June 2018 passed through the chemical channel, which can be concluded from the small magnitude of these earthquakes. Several proposals have been made, including: 1) creating a new sensor for the geochemical method, which allows determining the epicenter of a future earthquake;2) creating a network of stations with a new sensor for determining the epicenter and an atmospheric pressure meter installed at each station (this will determine if the “pressure lock” is closed by an anticyclone, which can lead to a decrease in the magnitude of an earthquake or even prevent an earthquake);3) installing vibrators in epicenters (or making daily explosions with explosives delivered by trucks, drones, airplanes or helicopters, which should lower the magnitudes of future dangerous earthquakes);4) alerting the public to the expected future earthquake;5) developing specialized vibrators for reducing the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake. Thus, this article is a breakthrough, describing a new mechanism in earthquakes for understanding and theory of earthquakes, which are used for the vast majority of earthquakes, including for program to reduce the magnitude of dangerous earthquakes.