Experimental investigation on predicting precursory changes in entropy for dominant frequency of rockburst

Rockburst is a dynamic phenomenon accompanied by acoustic emission(AE)activities.It is difficult to predict rockburst accurately.Based on the fast Fourier transform(FFT)method and the information entropy theory,the evolution model of dominant frequency entropy was established.The AE energy,frequency and stress were synthetically considered to predict rockburst.Under the triaxial and the single-face unloading tests,the relationship between AE energy and the development of internal cracks was analyzed.Using the FFT method,the distribution characteristics of AE dominant frequency values were obtained.Based on the information entropy theory,the dominant frequencies evolved patterns were ascertained.It was observed that the evolution models of the dominant frequency entropy were nearly the same and shared a characteristic“undulation-decrease-rise-sharp decrease”pattern.Results show that AE energy will be released suddenly before rockburst.The density of intermediate frequency increased prior to rockburst.The dominant frequency entropy reached a relative maximum value before rockburst,and then decreased sharply.These features could be used as a precursory information for predicting rockburst.The proposed relative maximum value could be as a key point to predict rockburst.This is a meaningful attempt on predicting rockburst.

Precursory Signals of Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China

The distinct precursory signals of countrywide extensive and persistent extreme cold events (CECs) were investigated and contrasted with those of countrywide cold wave events (CCWs). It is shown that most CECs were accompanied by a CCW in the initial stages. From the comparison between the CECs and the CCWs that were independent of any CEC, it is found that a south- west-northeast-oriented tilted ridge at 500 hPa was present around the Europe-Barents Sea regions approximately 10 days prior to the start of the CEC. Consistent with this feature, a high sea level pressure and strong cold air accumulation occurred over a broad extent of northern Eurasia one week prior to the start of the CEC. The tilted ridge and the strong cold air accumulation were the precursory signals that were absent for the CCW, and they provide important clues for the early prediction of whether a CCW event might evolve into a CEC.

Distinctive Precursory Air–Sea Signals between Regular and Super El Ni os

Statistically different precursory air–sea signals between a super and a regular El Ni no group are investigated, using observed SST and rainfall data, and oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data. The El Ni no events during 1958–2008 are first separated into two groups： a super El Ni no group（S-group） and a regular El Ni no group（R-group）. Composite analysis shows that a significantly larger SST anomaly（SSTA） tendency appears in S-group than in R-group during the onset phase[April–May（0）], when the positive SSTA is very small. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the tendency difference arises primarily from the difference in zonal advective feedback and the associated zonal current anomaly（u）.This is attributed to the difference in the thermocline depth anomaly（D） over the off-equatorial western Pacific prior to the onset phase, as revealed by three ocean assimilation products. Such a difference in D is caused by the difference in the wind stress curl anomaly in situ, which is mainly regulated by the anomalous SST and precipitation over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific.

Certainty factors of earthquake precursory anomaly evidences CF(E)

In this paper, we propose the principle, methods and calculating formulas for determining the certainty factors of earthquake precursory anomaly evidences CF (E). Based on the guidebooks for earthquake prediction, we give the methods of determining the CF values of 22 evidences (including seismic gap, belt, b-value, c-value, velocity ratio, strengthen of anomalous activities, quiet of anomalous activities, seismic window, earthquake swarm,earthquake sequence, coda wave, initial motion of P wave, stress drop, geoelectricity, geomagnetism, stress,ground tilt, ground water level, radon and hydrochemistry, gravity, space environment and macroscopic anomalies), and show three examples. The purposes are to use the Expert System for Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) further.

Research on the Spatial Inhomogeneity Paramter C_v of Earthquake Precursory Group

A research method and parameter C_v which depicts the spatial inhomogeneity of earthquakeprecursory group, are developed in the paper. The influences of factors, such asinhomogeneous distribution of precursory observatory stations, the variety of observing itemnumber at each observatory station and the anomaly number of the same observing item atdifferent stations, etc., which cause the non-earthquake induced inhomogeneity, can beeliminated from C_v. The criteria of C_v to recognize particular spatial pattern of earthquakeprecursory group are also introduced. Based on the method, the spatial inhomogeneity ofradon precursory group and its relation to moderately strong earthquakes occurred in NorthChina during the same period are analyzed. The results show 5 strengthen processes of spatialinhomogeneity of radon precursory group before each of 5 earthquakes with M≥5. 0 in theregion during the period from Jan. 1, 1995 to Feb. 1, 1998. Among them 4 earthquakesoccurred within the time interval which the

Anomalies of Precursory Group and Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.

Possible precursory anomalies in ground water level associated with the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake in 2008,Sichuan,China

We have examined the water level data from 16 wells in Sichuan province,China,recorded before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake occurred in 2008.We found that the data of 5 among these wells exhibit possible precursory anomalies,which are respectively named the Chuan No.08 well in Deyang,Chuan No.ll well in Pujiang,Chuan No.13 well in Luzhou,Chuan No.22 well in Qionglai and Beichuan.In time durations,these anomalies are of long-,intermediate-and short-term signals which are primarily distributed on the northeast(NE)trending Longmenshan fault zone as well as the parallel Huayingshan fault zone.It seems that the variations of the well levels on the Huayingshan fault zone imply compression while those on the Longmenshan fault zone reflect extension.These anomalies occurred first in the areas outside the epicenter region of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake,then migrated to the seismogenic fault zone.And they migrated from southwest to northeast in agreement with the rupture process of the main shock.

Study on medium-short term earthquake forecast in Yunnan Province by precursory events

The medium-short term forecast for a certain kinds of main earthquake events might be possible with the time-to-failure method presented by Varnes (1989), Bufe and Varnes (1993), which is to simulate an accelerative releasing model of precursory earthquake energy. By fitting the observed data with the theoretical formula, a medium-short term forecast technique for the main shock events could be established, by which the location, time and magnitude of the main shock could be determined. The data used in the paper are obtained from the earthquake catalogue recorded by Yunnan Regional Seismological Network with a time coverage of 1965~2002. The statistical analyses for the past 37 years show that the data of M2.5 earthquakes were fairly complete. In the present paper, 30 main shocks occurred in Yunnan region were simulated. For 25 of them, the forecasting time and magnitude from the simulation of precursory sequence are very close to the actual values with the precision of about 0.57 (magnitude unit). Suppose that the last event of the precursory sequence is known, then the time error for the forecasting main shock is about 0.64 year. For the other 5 main shocks, the simulation cannot be made due to the insufficient precursory events for the full determination of energy accelerating curve or disturbance to the energy-release curve. The results in the paper indicate that there is no obviously linear relation in the optimal searching radius for the main shock and the precursory events because Yunnan is an active region with damage earthquakes and moderate and small earthquakes. However, there is a strong correlation between the main shock moment and the coefficient k/m. The optimal fitting range for the forecasting time and magnitude can be further reduced using the relation between the main shock moment lgM0 and the coefficient lgk/m and the value range of the restricting index m, by which the forecast precision of the simulated main shock can be improved. The time-to-failure method is used to fit 30 main shocks in the paper and more than 80% of them have acquired better results, indicating that the method is prospective for its ability to forecast the known main shock sequence. Therefore, the prospect is cheerful to make medium-short term forecast for the forthcoming main shocks by the precursory events.

Decline of groundwater table in Beijing and recognition of seismic precursory information

This paper quantitatively analyzed groundwater table fluctuations caused by groundwater overdraft, and probed into the possibility of drawing earthquake precursory information from groundwater table variations on the background of groundwater overdraft. Main effect factors of groundwater regime in Beijing region include groundwater extraction and rainfall. The decline of groundwater table was directly related to regional groundwater overdraft. Using the method of correlation analysis, the paper analyzed the relation between groundwater overdraft and groundwater level variations, with the aim of evaluating the effect of groundwater overdraft on water levels in observation wells and providing scientific basis for identifying seismic precursory information. The results indicate that the variations of groundwater level in slightly-affected zones of groundwater overdraft can contain some seismic precursory information, and it is possible to extract seismic precursory anomalies if proper mathematical methods are adopted to remove the trend component and annual period changes.

The statistical study of precursory anom alies observed in Chinese Seismological Network

By using the precursory anomalies at fixed seismological stations or observational points in China, which are obtained every year from the Assembly of National Seismologic Consideration (ANSC) from 1988 to 1996, to study the relationship between the anomalies in a certain year and the earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland in the next year. Based on the anomalies before 84 moderate or large earthquakes, it is concluded that except for the means of ground water level, the anomalous ratios for the other six means of earthquake forecasting in seismic regions are smaller than that in aseismic regions or that in the whole mainland of China. The means which has the maximum anomalous ratio is the means of ground water level, and the regions where the maximum ratio is observed are Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. The means which have the second anomalous ratios are the hydrogeochemistry and deformation and the regions where the second ratio is obtained are Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Yunnan Province. The means which has the minimum ratio is geomagnetism, the regions where the minimum ratio is observed are Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and South China. The composite nomalous ratios for all means are 26.85% in seismic regions, 25.11% in aseismic regions. The latter also is the background level of precursory anomalies in Chinese Seismological Network. The anomalous ratios are 26.30% for the earthquakes of M S about 5.0 within the range of 200 km distant from the epicenter, 29.19% for earthquakes about 6.0 within 300 km, and 29.44% for earthquakes about 7.0 within 500 km.

Erratum to:Experimental investigation on predicting precursory changes in entropy for dominant frequency of rockburst

Because of an unfortunate mistake during the production of this article,the initial printed versions and the online PDF had incorrect DOI numbers.The DOI has now been corrected and synchronized with the correct DOIs of the HTML versions.

Observation Study on Precursory Geosound: Extraction of Nucleation Information in the Earthquake Preparation Process

In this paper, the observation networks of precursory geosound and observation instruments are introduced first. Then it is mentioned, in particular, that audible precursory geosound was instrumentally recorded for the first time. The following section discussed the relation between the geosound and earthquake. Finally, the Nucleation time in earthquake preparation process is discussed.

Study on Precursory Features of the Lop M_S6. 0 Earthquake Based on GPS Continuous Observation Data and Mobile Gravity Data

Through calculating and analyzing of GPS continuous observation data and mobile gravity data,the study results from the data are as follows.( 1) The different movement rate of the fault ends provides conditions for stress accumulation.( 2) The high value zone of gravity anomaly appeared in the monitoring area before the earthquake,and gravity variation contour lines are parallel to the strike of fault; and the process of enhancingweakening-enhancing appeared in the regional gravity field before earthquake.

Seismic Sequence Characteristics and Precursory Anomalies of the M_S6.3 and M_S6.4 Da Qaidam Earthquakes in 2008～2009

In this paper,the seismogenic structures of the Da Qaidam strong earthquakes are preliminarily discussed by using the regional seismotectonic data and focal mechanism solutions. Analysis is done on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences in Da Qaidam in combination with the sequence distribution characteristics of the M6. 6 earthquake of 2003 and the five strong earthquakes of about M5. 0 in 2004 in Delingha. At the same time,the regional characteristics of the historical seismic activity are also investigated. Preliminary analysis is done on the influence of the two M8. 0 earthquakes in the past 10 years on this region. Precursory anomalies and their characteristics are discussed in combination with the analysis of the precursor observation data of Qinghai Province.

Precursory SST anomalies associated with the convection over the western Pacific warm pool

The convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool influences significantly the atmospheric circulation and climate in East Asia. Thus, the precursory signals of the convection may be used in the forecast of summer climate in China. According to the present results, the June-July-August (JJA) mean convection intensity over the warm pool is significantly related to the precursory positive and negative sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the warm pool and in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, respectively. It is also related to the simultaneous negative surface temperatures west to the Philippines. The analysis on the SSTs associated with the convection over the warm pool in individual month of summer shows that for the convection in June and July, there are precursory SST signals in the warm pool and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Therefore, this study shows that only the convection in June and July, rather than that in August, has precursory SST signals, despite the

Earthquake hazard potential in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey： seismotectonic b and Dc-values and precursory quiescence Z-value

The Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey is one of the most seismically and tectonically active regions due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Thus, the main goal of this study is to analyze the regional and temporal characteristics of seismicity in the Eastern Anatolia in terms of the seismotectonic b-value, fractal dimension Dcvalue, precursory seismic quiescence Z-value, and their interrelationships. This study also seeks to obtain a reliable empirical relation between b and De-values and to evaluate the temporal changes of these parameters as they relate to the earthquake potential of the region. A more up-to-date relation of De = 2.55 -0.39＊b is found with a very strong negative correlation coefficient （r=- 0.95） by using the orthogonal regression method. The b-values less than 1.0 and the De-values greater than 2.2 are observed in the Northeast Anatolian Fault Zone, Askale, Erzurum, Igdlr and Caldlran Faults, Dogubeyazlt Fault Zone, around the Genc Fault, the western part of the Bitlis-Zagros Thrust Zone, Pulumir and Karakogan Faults, and the SancakUzunpmar Fault Zone. In addition, the regions having small b-values and large Z-values are calculated around the Geng, Piulumur and Karakogan Faults as well as the Saneak-Uzunpmar Fault Zone. Remarkably, the combinations of these seismotectonic parameters could reveal the earthquake hazard potential in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey, thus creating an increased interest in these anomaly regions.

Failure precursor of surrounding rock mass around cross tunnel in high-steep rock slope

The stability of the surrounding rock mass around cross tunnel in the right bank slope of Dagangshan hydropower station, in the southwestern China, was analyzed by microseismic monitoring as well as numerical simulations. The realistic failure process analysis code （abbreviated as RFPA3D） was employed to reproduce the initiation, propagation, coalescence and interactions of micro-fractures, the evolution of associated stress fields and acoustic emission （AE） activities during the whole failure processes of the surrounding rock mass around cross tunnel. Combined with microseismic activities by microseismic monitoring on the fight bank slope, the spatial-temporal evolution and the micro-fracture precursor characteristics during the complete process of progressive failure of the surrounding rock mass around cross tunnel were discussed and the energy release law of the surrounding rock mass around the cross tunnel was obtained. The result shows that the precursor characteristic of microfractures occurring in rock mass is an effective approach to early warn catastrophic damage of rock mass around cross tunnel. Moreover, the heterogeneity of rock mass is the source and internal cause of the failure precursor of rock mass.

Experimental study on the infrared precursor characteristics of gas-bearing coal failure under loading

The stress and gas pressure in deep coal seams are very high,and instability and failure rapidly and intensely occur.It is important to study the infrared precursor characteristics of gas-bearing coal instability and failure.In this paper,a self-developed stress-gas coupling failure infrared experimental system was used to analyse the infrared radiation temperature(IRT)and infrared thermal image precursor characteristics of gas-free coal and gas-bearing coal.The changes in the areas of the infrared temperature anomalous precursor regions and the effect of the gas on the infrared precursors were examined.The results show that high-temperature anomalous precursors arise mainly when the gas-free coal fails under loading,whereas the gas-bearing coal has high-temperature and low-temperature anomalous precursors.The area of the high-temperature anomalous precursor is approximately 30%–40%under gasbearing coal unstable failure,which is lower than the 60%–70%of the gas-free coal.The area of the low-temperature abnormal precursor is approximately 3%–6%,which is higher than the 1%–2%of the gas-free coal.With increasing gas pressure,the area of the high-temperature anomalous precursor gradually decreases,and the area of the low-temperature anomalous precursor gradually increases.The highand low-temperature anomalous precursors of gas-bearing coal are mainly caused by gas desorption,volume expansion,and thermal friction.The presence of gas inhibits the increase in IRT on the coal surface and increases the difficulty of infrared radiation(IR)monitoring and early warning for gas-bearing coal.

Abnormal interruption of water flow from an artesian well prior to 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

Water flow from an artesian well stopped on December 17, 2007 but recovered when the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008. This well is located 90 km south of the epicenter in an extensional tectonic setting, where similar changes of water level and resistivity were observed at two other nearby sites. Our investigation suggests that this phenomenon was not caused by environmental disturbances, such as drought or borehole-drilling activity, but might be a precursor to the earthquake.

THE FEATURES OF EAST ASIAN JET STREAM IN PERSISTENT SNOWSTORM AND FREEZING RAIN PROCESSES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IN EARLY 2008

Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) daily reanalysis data and the upper-level objective analysis data provided by the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System(MICAPS),the feature of the spatio-temporal variation of the East Asian jet stream(EAJS) in persistent snowstorm and freezing rain processes over southern China in January 2008 have been investigated.Each of the storm events was closely linked with the extraordinarily abnormal variations of East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ) and East Asian polar front jet(EAPJ) at that time.The stronger EASJ with abnormally northward position of the jet axis corresponded to the more intense storm event with broader ranges and longer duration time.The heavy freezing-rain-and-snow event occurred over the region where a strong southerly wind of EASJ prevailed.Meanwhile,the westerly and northerly winds of the EAPJ were significantly intensified,which were also closely related to the beginning,enhancement,and ending of the heavy snowfall.The meridional component of the EAPJ was dominated by the northerly wind during the snowstorm.Thus,the intensification of the snowstorm was attributed to both the strengthening of the meridional wind of EAPJ and the southerly wind of EASJ.Further analysis indicated that wind speed and the zonal wind of the two jets exhibited precursory signals about half a month prior to this extreme event,and the precursory signals were found in the meridional components of the two jets about 20 days preceding the event.The sudden weakening of the meridional component of EASJ and the zonal component of EAPJ signified the ending of this persistent snowstorm.