Predicting factors for the need of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for suicide attempts by cardiac medication:a single-center cohort study

BACKGROUND:Severe poisoning due to the overdosing of cardiac drugs can lead to cardiovascular failure.In order to decrease the mortality rate,the most severe patients should be transferred as quickly as possible to an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(ECMO)center.However,the predictive factors showing the need for venous-arterial ECMO(VA-ECMO)had never been evaluated.METHODS:A retrospective,descriptive,and single-center cohort study.All consecutive patients admitted in the largest ICU of Reunion Island(Indian Ocean)between January 2013 and September 2018 for beta-blockers(BB),calcium channel blockers(CCB),renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockers,digoxin or anti-arrythmic intentional poisonings were included.ECMO implementation was the primary outcome.RESULTS:A total of 49 consecutive admissions were included.Ten patients had ECMO,39 patients did not have ECMO.Three patients in ECMO group died,while no patients in the conventional group died.The most relevant ECMO-associated factors were pulse pressure and heart rate at first medical contact and pulse pressure,heart rate,arterial lactate concentration,liver enzymes and left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF)at ICU-admission.Only pulse pressure at first medical contact and LVEF were significant after logistic regression.CONCLUSION:A transfer to an ECMO center should be considered for a pulse pressure<35 mmHg at first medical contact or LVEF<20%on admission to ICU.

On indexing in the Web of Science and predicting journal impact factor

We discuss what document types account for the calculation of the journal impact factor （JIF） as published in the Journal Citation Reports （JCR）. Based on a brief review of articles discussing how to predict JIFs and taking data differences between the Web of Science （WoS） and the JCR into account, we make our own predictions. Using data by cited-reference searching for Thomson Scientific＇s WoS, we predict 2007 impact factors （1Fs） for several journals, such as Nature, Science, Learned Publishing and some Library and Information Sciences journals. Based on our colleagues＇ experiences we expect our predictions to be lower bounds for the official journal impact factors. We explain why it is useful to derive one＇s own journal impact factor.

Factors predicting upstaging from clinical N0 to pN2a/N3a in breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND With sentinel node metastasis in breast cancer(BC)patients,axillary lymph node(ALN)dissection is often omitted from cases with breast-conserving surgery.Omission of lymph node dissection reduces the invasiveness of surgery to the patient,but it also obscures the number of metastases to non-sentinel nodes.The possibility of finding≥4 lymph nodes(pN2a/pN3a)preoperatively is important given the ramifications for postoperative treatment.AIM To search for clinicopathological factors that predicts upstaging from N0 to pN2a/pN3a.METHODS Patients who were sentinel lymph node(SLN)-positive and underwent ALN dissection between September 2007 and August 2018 were selected by retrospective chart review.All patients had BC diagnosed preoperatively as N0 with axillary evaluation by fluorodeoxyglucose(FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography and ultrasound (US)examination. When suspicious FDG accumulation was found in ALN, the presence of metastasiswas reevaluated by second US. We examined predictors of upstaging from N0 to pN2a/pN3a.RESULTSAmong 135 patients, we identified 1-3 ALNs (pN1) in 113 patients and ³4 ALNs (pN2a/pN3a) in22 patients. Multivariate analysis identified the total number of SLN metastasis, the maximaldiameter of metastasis in the SLN (SLNDmax), and FDG accumulation of ALN as predictors ofupstaging to pN2a/pN3a.CONCLUSIONWe identified factors involved in upstaging from N0 to pN2a/pN3a. The SLNDmax and numberof SLN metastasis are predictors of ≥ 4 ALNs (pN2a/pN3a) and predictors of metastasis to nonsentinelnodes, which have been reported in the past. Attention should be given to axillaryaccumulations of FDG, even when faint.

Predictive factors for percutaneous nephrolithotomy bleeding risks

Objective:This study aimed to identify predictive factors for percutaneous nephrolithotomy(PCNL)bleeding risks.With better risk stratification,bleeding in high-risk patient can be anticipated and facilitates early identification.Methods:A prospective observational study of PCNL performed at our institution was done.All adults with radio-opaque renal stones planned for PCNL were included except those with coagulopathy,planned for additional procedures.Factors including gender,co-morbidities,body mass index,stone burden,puncture site,tract dilatation size,operative position,surgeon's seniority,and operative duration were studied using stepwise multivariate regression analysis to identify the predictive factors associated with higher estimated hemoglobin(Hb)deficiency.Results:Overall,4.86%patients(n=7)received packed cells transfusion.The mean estimated Hb deficiency was 1.3(range 0-6.5)g/dL and the median was 1.0 g/dL.Stepwise multivariate regression analysis revealed that absence of hypertension(p=0.024),puncture site(p=0.027),and operative duration(p=0.023)were significantly associated with higher estimated Hb deficiency.However,the effect sizes are rather small with partial eta-squared of 0.037,0.066,and 0.038,respectively.Observed power obtained was 0.621,0.722,and 0.625,respectively.Other factors studied did not correlate with Hb difference.Conclusion:Hypertension,puncture site,and operative duration have significant impact on estimated Hb deficiency during PCNL.However,the effect size is rather small despite adequate study power obtained.Nonetheless,operative position(supine or prone),puncture number,or tract dilatation size did not correlate with Hb difference.The mainstay of reducing bleeding in PCNL is still meticulous operative technique.Our study findings also suggest that PCNL can be safely done by urology trainees under supervision in suitably selected patient,without increasing risk of bleeding.

Assessment of early factors for identification or prediction severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy

BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy(APIP)is a rare and serious condition,and severe APIP(SAPIP)can lead to pancreatic necrosis,abscess,multiple organ dysfunction,and other adverse maternal and infant outcomes.Therefore,early identification or prediction of SAPIP is important.AIM To assess factors for early identification or prediction of SAPIP.METHODS The clinical data of patients with APIP were retrospectively analyzed.Patients were classified with mild acute pancreatitis or severe acute pancreatitis,and the clinical characteristics and laboratory biochemical indexes were compared between the two groups.Logical regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed to assess the efficacy of the factors for identification or prediction of SAPIP.RESULTS A total of 45 APIP patients were enrolled.Compared with the mild acute pancreatitis group,the severe acute pancreatitis group had significantly increased(P<0.01)heart rate(HR),hemoglobin,neutrophil ratio(NEUT%),and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio(NLR),while lymphocytes were significantly decreased(P<0.01).Logical regression analysis showed that HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count differed significantly(P<0.01)between the groups.These may be factors for early identification or prediction of SAPIP.The area under the curve of HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count in the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was 0.748,0.732,0.821,and 0.774,respectively.The combined analysis showed that the area under the curve,sensitivity,and specificity were 0.869,90.5%,and 70.8%,respectively.CONCLUSION HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count can be used for early identification or prediction of SAPIP,and the combination of the four factors is expected to improve identification or prediction of SAPIP.

Carbon Emission Factors Prediction of Power Grid by Using Graph Attention Network

Advanced carbon emission factors of a power grid can provide users with effective carbon reduction advice,which is of immense importance in mobilizing the entire society to reduce carbon emissions.The method of calculating node carbon emission factors based on the carbon emissions flow theory requires real-time parameters of a power grid.Therefore,it cannot provide carbon factor information beforehand.To address this issue,a prediction model based on the graph attention network is proposed.The model uses a graph structure that is suitable for the topology of the power grid and designs a supervised network using the loads of the grid nodes and the corresponding carbon factor data.The network extracts features and transmits information more suitable for the power system and can flexibly adjust the equivalent topology,thereby increasing the diversity of the structure.Its input and output data are simple,without the power grid parameters.We demonstrated its effect by testing IEEE-39 bus and IEEE-118 bus systems with average error rates of 2.46%and 2.51%.

Predictive Factors of Renal Damage during Sickle Cell Disease at the Hematology-Oncology Department of Donka University Hospital

Introduction: Sickle cell disease, which is the most common hereditary hemoglobinopathy in the world, attacks all body systems, particularly the kidneys. The view of this study was to investigate the predictive factors of kidney damage during sickle cell disease. Materials and methods: It was a retrospective, descriptive and analytical study on files of sickle cell patients hospitalized in the Hematology-Oncology Department of Donka University Hospital during a period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019. Records of sickle cell patients with one or more renal abnormalities were retained. Sickle cell patients without kidney damage were also selected for a comparative study. Only patients without sickle cell disease were excluded. Results: Seventy-five (75) medical records were collected during the study period. From these cases, thirteen (13) records with kidney disease were observed, a frequency of 17%. The mean age of patients was 24.2 years for extremes of 10 and 65 years. The sex ratio was 1.6 in favor of men. The SSFA2 form was the most represented with 92%. 24-hour proteinuria was measured in 13 patients between whom 6 patients (46.2%) had a proteinuria level ≤ 1 g. Eight (8) patients (61.5%) were in stage 1 of chronic kidney disease. The most common type of renal involvement was tubulo-interstitial nephropathy with 8 patients (61.5%). Bivariate analysis showed that elevated serum creatinine (P 2 form of the sickness (P Conclusion: After the observation of an increased serum creatinine and urea, a predominance observation of the SSFA2 form, it should be possible to target patients for whom screening for kidney damage should henceforth be systematic.

Predictive Factors for Pre-Eclampsia: A Case-Control Study in Two Hospitals in Yaounde

Introduction: Pre-eclampsia is a major cause of maternal and prenatal morbidity and mortality, that complicates 2% to 8% of pregnancies worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive factors for pre-eclampsia in two hospitals in the city of Yaoundé. Methods: A case-control study was conducted at the Gynaecology & Obstetrics department of the Yaoundé Gynaeco-Obstetric and Paediatric Hospital (YGOPH) and the Main Maternity of the Yaoundé Central Hospital (MM-YCH) from February 1 to July 30, 2022. The cases were all pregnant women presenting with pre-eclampsia. The control group included pregnant women without pre-eclampsia. Descriptive statistics followed by logistic regression analyses were conducted with level of significance set at p-value Results: Included in the study were 33 cases and 132 controls, giving a total of 165 participants. The predictive factors for pre-eclampsia after multivariate analysis were: primiparity (aOR = 51.86, 95% CI: 3.01 - 1230.96, p = 0.045), duration of exposure to partner’s sperm Conclusion: The odds of pre-eclampsia increased with primiparity, duration of exposure to partner’s sperm < 3 months, personal history of pre-eclampsia and maternal history of pre-eclampsia. Recognition of these predictor factors would improve the ability to diagnose and monitor women likely to develop pre-eclampsia before the onset of disease for timely interventions.

Navigating breast cancer brain metastasis:Risk factors,prognostic indicators,and treatment perspectives

In this editorial,we comment on the article by Chen et al.We specifically focus on the risk factors,prognostic factors,and management of brain metastasis(BM)in breast cancer(BC).BC is the second most common cancer to have BM after lung cancer.Independent risk factors for BM in BC are:HER-2 positive BC,triplenegative BC,and germline BRCA mutation.Other factors associated with BM are lung metastasis,age less than 40 years,and African and American ancestry.Even though risk factors associated with BM in BC are elucidated,there is a lack of data on predictive models for BM in BC.Few studies have been made to formulate predictive models or nomograms to address this issue,where age,grade of tumor,HER-2 receptor status,and number of metastatic sites(1 vs>1)were predictive of BM in metastatic BC.However,none have been used in clinical practice.National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends screening of BM in advanced BC only when the patient is symptomatic or suspicious of central nervous system symptoms;routine screening for BM in BC is not recommended in the guidelines.BM decreases the quality of life and will have a significant psychological impact.Further studies are required for designing validated nomograms or predictive models for BM in BC;these models can be used in the future to develop treatment approaches to prevent BM,which improves the quality of life and overall survival.

Factors affecting recurrence after surgery for Crohn's disease

Although in Crohn's disease post-operative recurrence is common, the determinants of disease recurrence remain speculative. The aim of this study was to examine factors affecting post-operative recurrence of Crohn's disease. A Medline-based literature review was carried out. The following factors were investigated: age at onset of disease, sex, family history of Crohn's disease,smoking, duration of Crohn's disease before surgery,prophylactic medical treatment (corticosteroids, 5-amino salicylic acid [5-ASA] and immunosuppressants),anatomical site of involvement, indication for surgery (perforating or non-perforating disease), length of resected bowel, anast-omotic technique, presence of granuloma in the specimen, involvement of disease at the resection margin, blood transfusions and postoperative complications. Smoking significantly increases the risk of recurrence (risk is approximately twice as high), especially in women and heavy smokers. Quitting smoking reduces the post-operative recurrence rate. A number of studies have shown a higher risk when the duration of the disease before surgery was short. There were, however, different definitions of 'short' among the studies. Prophylactic cortic-osteroids therapy is not effective in reducing the post-operative recurrence. A number of randomized controlled trials offered evidence of the efficacy of 5-ASA (mesalazine) in reducing post-operative recurrence. Recently, the thera-peutic efficacy of immunosuppressive drugs (azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine) in the prevention of post-operative recurrence has been investigated and several studies have reported that these drugs might help prevent the recurrence. Further clinical trials would be necessary to evaluate the prophylactic efficacy of immunosuppressants.Several studies showed a higher recurrence rate in patients with perforating disease than in those with non-perforating disease. However, evidence for differing recurrence rates in perforating and non-perforating diseases is inconclusive.A number of retrospective studies reported that a stapled functional end-to-end anastomosis was associated with a lower recurrence rate compared with other types of anastomosis. However, prospective randomized studies would be necessary to draw a definite conclusion. Many studies found no difference in the recurrence rates between patients with radical resection and non-radical resection. Therefore, minimal surgery including strictureplasty has been justified in the management of Crohn's disease. In this review, the following factors do not seem to be predictive of post-operative recurrence:age at onset of disease, sex, family history of Crohn's disease, anatomical site of disease, length of resected bowel, presence of granuloma in the specimen, blood transfusions and post-operative complications. The most significant factor affecting post-operative recurrence of Crohn's disease is smoking. Smoking significantly increases the risk of recurrence. A short disease duration before surgery seems, albeit to a very minor degree, to be associated with a higher recurrence rate. 5-ASA has been shown with some degree of confidence to lead to a lower recurrence rate. The prophylactic efficacy of immunosuppressive drugs should be assessed in future.A wider anastomotic technique after resection may reduce the post-operative recurrence rate, though this should be investigated with prospective randomized controlled trials.

Predictive factors of survival in patients treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell esophageal carcinoma

AIM： The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive factors of survival in patients with locally advanced squamous cell esophageal carcinoma （LASCOC） treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy （CRT） regimen based on the 5FU/CDDP combination. METHODS： All patients with LASCOC treated with a definitive CRT using the 5FU/CDDP combination between 1994 and 2000 were retrospectively included. Clinical complete response （CCR） to CRT was assessed by esophageal endoscopy and C-F-scan 2 mo after CRT completion. Prognostic factors of survival were assessed using univariate and multivariate analysis by the Cox regression model. RESULTS： A total of 116 patients were included in the study. A CCR to CRT was observed in 86/116 （74.1%）. The median survival was 20 mo （range 2-114） and the 5-year survival was 9.4%. Median survival of responder patients to CRT was 25 mo （range 3-114） as compared to 9 mo （range 2-81） in non-responder patients （P 〈 0.001）. In univariate analysis, survival was associated with CCR （P 〈 0.001）, WHO performance status 〈 2 （P = 0.01）, tumour length 〈 6 cm （P = 0.045） and weight loss 〈 10% was in limit of significance （P = 0.053）. In multivariate analysis, survival was dependant to CCR （P 〈 0.0001）, weight loss 〈 10% （P = 0.034） and WHO performance 〈 2 （P = 0.046）. CONCLUSION： Our results suggest that survival in patients with LASCOC b＇eated with definitive CRT was correlated to CCR, weight loss and WHO performance status.

Evolution and predictive factors of thyroid disorder due to interferon alpha in the treatment of hepatitis C

AIM： To study predictive factors of thyroid dysfunction associated with interferon-alpha （IFNa） therapy in chronic hepatitis C （CHC） and to describe its long-term evolution in a large population without previous thyroid dysfunction. METHODS： We performed a follow-up of thyroid function and detection of thyroid antibodies in 301 patients treated for CHC with IFNα from 1999 to 2004. RESULTS： Thyroid disorder developed in 30/301 （10%） patients with a mean delay of 6 ± 3.75 mo： 13 patients had hyperthyroidism, 11 had hypothyroidism, and 6 had biphasic evolution. During a mean follow-up of 41.59 ± 15.39 mo, 9 patients with hyperthyroidism, 3 with hypothyroidism, and 4 with biphasic evolution normalized thyroid function in 7.88 ± 5.46 mo. Recovery rate of dysthyroidism was not modified by treatment discontinuation, but was better for patients with negative thyroid antibodies before antiviral treatment （P = 0.02）. Women had significantly more dysthyroidism （P = 0.05）. Positive thyroid peroxidase and thyroglobulin antibodies were more frequent before antiviral treatment in patients who developed dysthyroidism （P 〈 0.0003 and P = 0.0003, respectively）. In a multivariate model, low fibrosis was found to be a predictive factor of dysthyroidism （P = 0.039）.CONCLUSION： In this monocentric population of CHC, dysthyroidism, especially hyperthyroidism, developed in 10% of patients, Low fibrosis was found to be a predictive factor of dysthyroidism, Thyroid disorder recovered in 16/30 patients （53%） and recovery was better in the non-autoimrnune form,

Predictive factors of endoscopic submucosal dissection procedure time for gastric superficial neoplasia

AIM:To identify the determinants of endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD) operation time.METHODS:This investigation was conducted as a single-center,prospective study in which ESD was performed by the same endoscopist at the Chinese PLA General Hospital.A total of 173 patients underwent ESD operations performed by Dr.Lu from July 2007 to December 2011,and 183 lesions were enrolled.Patient gender,age,tumor location,gross type,tumor size,pathological type and adhesions were recorded prospectively.The order of treatment represented the experience of the operator.Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to evaluate the relationships between these factors and ESD procedure time.RESULTS:Univariate analysis showed the ESD time was closely related to the gender(P = 0.0210),tumor size(P < 0.0001),location(P < 0.0001),gross type(P < 0.0001) and adhesion(P = 0.0010).The surgical proficiency level was associated with ESD time in unit area(P < 0.0001).Multivariate analysis revealed that the ESD time was positively correlated with tumor size(P < 0.0001),adhesion(P < 0.0001) and location(P < 0.0001),but negatively correlated with surgical proficiency level(P = 0.0046).CONCLUSION:Large tumor size,adjacency to the cardia,and adhesion are predictors of a long ESD time,whereas high surgical proficiency level predicts a short ESD time.

Total and not bevacizumab-bound vascular endothelial growth factor as potential predictive factors to bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in colorectal cancer

AIM: To identify suitable biomarkers of response to bevacizumab(BV)- it remains an open question. The measurement of serum vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF) has been proposed as a predictive factor for this drug, even if literature data are contradictory. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the role of BV, total and not BV-bound VEGF and angiopoietin-2(Ang-2) serum levels as potential predictive factors of response for BV in combination with an oxaliplatinbased chemotherapy. BV, Ang-2, total and not BVbound VEGF levels were measured at baseline, before 2^(nd) and 5^(th) cycle of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy in 20 consecutive metastatic colorectal cancer patients. RESULTS: Results were correlated to response to treatment. Variability in BV levels have been found, with decreased level in less responding patients. In particular, the concentration of BV increased of 3.96 ± 0.69 folds in serum of responsive patients after 3 more cycles of therapy compared to those with stable or progressive disease with a 0.72 ± 0.25 and 2.10 ± 0.13 fold increase, respectively. The determination of free and total VEGF demonstrated that the ratio between the two values, evaluated immediately before the 2^(nd) and the 5^(th) cycle of therapy, decreased from 26.65% ± 1.33% to 15.50% ± 3.47% in responsive patients and from 53.41% ± 4.75 to 34.95% ± 2.88% in those with stable disease. Conversely, in those with progression of disease, the ratio showed the opposite behavior coming up from 25.99% ± 5.23% to 51.71% ± 5.28%. The Ang-2 levels did not show any relationship. CONCLUSION: Our data show that the ratio of not BV-bound VEGF to total VEGF serum and BV plasma concentrations for predicting the response to BV plus oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy could be a promising biomarker of response to BV.

Prognostic factors and predictors of postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization benefit in patients with resected hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) has improved overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).However,the prognostic and predictive factors remain unclear.AIM To assess the prognostic factors and the predictors of PA-TACE benefit for OS in patients with resected HCC.METHODS Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the potential prognostic factors for OS.In order to assess the predictive factors of PA-TACE benefit,the interaction variables between treatments for each subgroup were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.RESULTS A total of 378 patients (PA-TACE vs surgery alone,189:189) from three centerswere included after a propensity-score 1:1 matching analysis.Compared to the group receiving surgery alone,PA-TACE prolonged the OS rate in patients with resected HCC (P <0.001).The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system and ferritinto-hemoglobin ratio (FHR) were used as the prognostic factors for OS in both groups.Age (P=0.023) and microscopic vascular invasion (MVI)(P=0.002) were also identified in the PA-TACE group,while gender (P=0.027),hepatitis B virus(P=0.034) and albumin-bilirubin grade (P=0.027) were also selected in the surgery alone group.In addition,PA-TACE resulted in longer OS than surgery alone across subgroups [all hazard ratios (PA-TACE-to-surgery alone)<1].Notably,a significantly prolonged OS following PA-TACE was observed in patients with high FHR (P=0.038) and without MVI (P=0.048).CONCLUSION FHR and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages were regarded as prognostic factors for OS.Moreover,high FHR and the absence of MVI were important predictive factors,which can be used to assist clinicians in selecting which patients could achieve a better OS with PA-TACE.

Factors Related to Prognosis of Refractory Glaucoma with Diode Laser Transscleral Cyclophotocoagulation Treatment

Objective To evaluate the predictive factors of refractory glaucoma treated with diode laser transscleral cyclophotocoagulation(TSCP) in a midterm observation.Methods Fifty-four consecutive patients(54 eyes) with refractory glaucoma were enrolled and underwent TSCP(power of 1.5-2.0 W,exposure time of 2 seconds and 20-50 applications).Patients were regularly followed up for 12 months.Intraocular pressure(IOP) was measured before TSCP treatment and at each follow-up visit.Patients were divided into the sensitive and insensitive groups according to the effect of a single treatment of TSCP on IOP.The success rate was defined as the percentage of eyes achieving an IOP between 5 and 21 mm Hg following TSCP therapy at their final follow up visit.Difference of age between the sensitive and insensitive groups was evaluated with Independent-samples T test and that of gender distribution of two groups was evaluated with Fisher's exact test.The success rate of different types of glaucoma to TSCP was calculated.Results A total of 32 patients were sensitive to TSCP(sensitive group) and 22 patients were insensitive to TSCP(insensitive group).The success rates of female(77.8%,14/18) and cases being over 50 years(71.4%,20/28) were higher than those of male(50.0%,18/36) and ones being under 50 years(46.2%,12/26)(all P>0.05).The age of the sensitive and insensitive groups was 56.0±15.5 and 46.4±15.4 years,respectively(P=0.029).The age(P=0.029) and gender distribution(P=0.046) of the two groups had significant difference.The success rate of neovascular glaucoma,primary angle-closure glaucoma,primary open angle glaucoma,traumatic glaucoma,uveitic glaucoma,and secondary glaucoma after silicone oil injection to TSCP was 57.1%,100.0%,50.0%,20.0%,81.8%,and 0%,respectively.Conclusion Age,gender,and type of glaucoma appear to be associated with effect of TSCP on IOP control.

Predictive factors for the failure of endoscopic stent-instent self-expandable metallic stent placement to treat malignant hilar biliary obstruction

AIM To investigate the factors predictive of failure when placing a second biliary self-expandable metallic stents(SEMSs). METHODS This study evaluated 65 patients with an unresectable malignant hilar biliary obstruction who were examined in our hospital. Sixty-two of these patients were recruited to the study and divided into two groups: the success group, which consisted of patients in whom a stent-in-stent SEMS had been placed successfully, and the failure group, which consisted of patients in whom the stent-in-stent SEMS had not been placed successfully. We compared the characteristics of the patients, the stricture state of their biliary ducts, and the implemented endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP) procedures between the two groups.RESULTS The angle between the target biliary duct stricture and the first implanted SEMS was significantly larger in the failure group than in the success group. There were significantly fewer wire or dilation devices(ERCP catheter, dilator, or balloon catheter) passing the first SEMS cell in the failure group than in the success group. The cut-off value of the angle predicting stent-in-stent SEMS placement failure was 49.7 degrees according to the ROC curve(sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 61.2%). Furthermore, the angle was significantly smaller in patients with wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell than in patients without wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell. CONCLUSION A large angle was identified as a predictive factor for failure of stent-in-stent SEMS placement.

Nomograms and risk score models for predicting survival in rectal cancer patients with neoadjuvant therapy

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.

Predictive factors of clinical response in steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis treated with granulocyte-monocyte apheresis

AIM:To identify factors predicting the clinical response of ulcerative colitis patients to granulocyte-monocyte apheresis (GMA). METHODS:Sixty-nine ulcerative colitis patients (39 F,30 M) dependent upon/refractory to steroids were treated with GMA. Steroid dependency,clinical activity index (CAI),C reactive protein (CRP) level,erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR),values at baseline,use of immunosuppressant,duration of disease,and age and extent of disease were considered for statistical analysis as predictive factors of clinical response. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS:In the univariate analysis,CAI (P = 0.039) and ESR (P = 0.017) levels at baseline were singled out as predictive of clinical remission. In the multivariate analysis steroid dependency [Odds ratio (OR) = 0.390,95% Confidence interval (CI):0.176-0.865,Wald 5.361,P = 0.0160] and low CAI levels at baseline (4 < CAI <7) (OR = 0.770,95% CI:0.425-1.394,Wald 3.747,P = 0.028) proved to be effective as factors predicting clinical response. CONCLUSION:GMA may be a valid therapeutic option for steroid-dependent ulcerative colitis patients with mild-moderate disease and its clinical efficacy seems to persist for 12 mo.

Clinical feature and predictive factor analysis for spontaneous regression of retinopathy of prematurity in a Chinese population

AIM:To investigate the ratio of spontaneous regression of retinopathy of prematurity(ROP)and to explore the possible relevant predictive factors.METHODS:A retrospective review of 405 infants who were diagnosed with ROP and mother during pregnancy were collected.Stage,zone,and duration of ROP were recorded.Statistical analysis was performed on 51 possible predictive factors.RESULTS:Totally 356 infants showed spontaneous regression.The incidence was 100%,95.3%,and 22.7%in stage 1,2,and 3,respectively.The 13.4%of the ROP with plus disease eventually resolved spontaneously.All affected eyes of aggressive posterior retinopathy of prematurity(APROP)failed to spontaneously regress.The mean duration of ROP was 7.2wk in patients with spontaneous resolution of ROP.Days of mechanical ventilation(OR=0.981,95%CI,0.965-0.997,P=0.021),retinal hemorrhage(OR=0.173,95%CI,0.064-0.470,P=0.001),delivery pattern(OR=2.750,95%CI,1.132-6.681,P=0.025),maternal anemia in pregnancy(OR=0.142,95%CI,0.036-0.563,P=0.005),the stages(at initial diagnosis OR=0.183,95%CI,0.041-0.816,P=0.026;at final diagnosis OR=0.031,95%CI,0.006-0.167,P<0.001),and with plus disease or not(OR=0.005,95%CI,0.001-0.031,P<0.001)were independent predictive factors of the spontaneous regression of ROP.CONCLUSION:Most mild ROP can spontaneously resolve.Active treatment is still recommended for stage 3 ROP,zone I ROP,AP-ROP,and ROP with plus disease.Prolonged mechanical ventilation and concurrent retinal hemorrhage reduce the likelihood of spontaneous ROP resolution.The pattern of delivery and the mother's anemia during pregnancy can also affect the prognosis of ROP.