A changing mosaic of natural vegetation and human land uses has evolved within and around the Flint River Watershed (FRW) in Alabama and Tennessee over the past several decades. To determine the cause of change and li...A changing mosaic of natural vegetation and human land uses has evolved within and around the Flint River Watershed (FRW) in Alabama and Tennessee over the past several decades. To determine the cause of change and linkage between human activities and environmental change can prove problematic. Subsequently, there is a need to produce projections of future environments based on planning instruments and socio-economic parameters. Scenarios of potential future land use land cover (LULC) change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on many environmental issues. This study creates future scenarios for the year 2030 from baseline land use of 2001, relative to three projected land use scenarios which include differences related to conservation, planning, and development. The future growth scenarios were created using the ArcGIS tool, Prescott Spatial Growth Model (PSGM). The model allows users to build different future growth scenarios based on socio-economic projections such as population, employment and other controlling factors. The simulation results indicate that LULC changes associated with future urbanization can increase by ~23% - 43% within the FRW, which will lead to significant environmental issues if not managed properly. The overall analysis and model results demonstrate the ability of future growth scenarios to explore and evaluate options for a future environment. Spatial modeling and analysis tools, such as PSGM, provide a powerful approach to evaluate potential impacts of LULC change in the future and should be used to manage urbanization in areas with more intense development.展开更多
Flint River watershed is located in northern Alabama and southern Tennessee, USA and is home to several species of rare, threatened, or endangered plants and animals in a rapidly urbanizing area. Dominant land uses ar...Flint River watershed is located in northern Alabama and southern Tennessee, USA and is home to several species of rare, threatened, or endangered plants and animals in a rapidly urbanizing area. Dominant land uses are forest and agricultural, with row crops and livestock production as major farm enterprises. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a deterministic hydrologic model that can predict hydrologic conditions over various temporal and spatial scales, was used to simulate the hydrologic response of the watershed to land-use/land cover (LULC) change. Analysis between observed and predicted stream flow demonstrated that the initial SWAT model run requires calibration of stream parameters in order to give a more accurate output from the model. The calibration was performed with sequential uncertainty fitting, ver. 2 (SUFI-2) in the SWAT Calibration Uncertainty Program. After calibration, stream sediment yield values were compared by sub-basin between a current (2001) and three future (2030) land use scenarios, in order to identify areas in the watershed that were the most susceptible to increased sediment yield in the future. The future growth scenarios (smart, plan and sprawl) were created using the ArcGIS extension, Prescott Spatial Growth Model. Sub-basins with the greatest sensitivity for larger sediment yields were identified and prioritized for conservation efforts.展开更多
文摘A changing mosaic of natural vegetation and human land uses has evolved within and around the Flint River Watershed (FRW) in Alabama and Tennessee over the past several decades. To determine the cause of change and linkage between human activities and environmental change can prove problematic. Subsequently, there is a need to produce projections of future environments based on planning instruments and socio-economic parameters. Scenarios of potential future land use land cover (LULC) change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on many environmental issues. This study creates future scenarios for the year 2030 from baseline land use of 2001, relative to three projected land use scenarios which include differences related to conservation, planning, and development. The future growth scenarios were created using the ArcGIS tool, Prescott Spatial Growth Model (PSGM). The model allows users to build different future growth scenarios based on socio-economic projections such as population, employment and other controlling factors. The simulation results indicate that LULC changes associated with future urbanization can increase by ~23% - 43% within the FRW, which will lead to significant environmental issues if not managed properly. The overall analysis and model results demonstrate the ability of future growth scenarios to explore and evaluate options for a future environment. Spatial modeling and analysis tools, such as PSGM, provide a powerful approach to evaluate potential impacts of LULC change in the future and should be used to manage urbanization in areas with more intense development.
文摘Flint River watershed is located in northern Alabama and southern Tennessee, USA and is home to several species of rare, threatened, or endangered plants and animals in a rapidly urbanizing area. Dominant land uses are forest and agricultural, with row crops and livestock production as major farm enterprises. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a deterministic hydrologic model that can predict hydrologic conditions over various temporal and spatial scales, was used to simulate the hydrologic response of the watershed to land-use/land cover (LULC) change. Analysis between observed and predicted stream flow demonstrated that the initial SWAT model run requires calibration of stream parameters in order to give a more accurate output from the model. The calibration was performed with sequential uncertainty fitting, ver. 2 (SUFI-2) in the SWAT Calibration Uncertainty Program. After calibration, stream sediment yield values were compared by sub-basin between a current (2001) and three future (2030) land use scenarios, in order to identify areas in the watershed that were the most susceptible to increased sediment yield in the future. The future growth scenarios (smart, plan and sprawl) were created using the ArcGIS extension, Prescott Spatial Growth Model. Sub-basins with the greatest sensitivity for larger sediment yields were identified and prioritized for conservation efforts.
