The Influences of Energy Price Variation on the Prices of Other Industries: A Study Based on Input-Output Price Model

Energy has laid material foundation for human society during its development. Meanwhile, any change of price in the energy industry may influence social production and people’s life at all levels via an input-output mechanism under which the change related to energy is surely transmitted to other industries. The price change thus incurred in all industries may adversely affect the realization of macroeconomic objective-maintaining prices at a stable level. It is, therefore, needed to conduct an empirical research related to the impact of price change in energy industry on that in other industries. According to the data coming from “China’s 2015 Input-Output Extension Table (42 Departments)” and four hypothetical basis, this article focuses on four energy sectors and analyzes how deeply the price change of them, by use of input-output model, affects that of other industrial products under five conditions where each of their price rises by 10% individually or simultaneously, and why such an influence occurs. The results show that the price rising of the energies in question leads to an upward growth in the prices of other industrial products, especially when their prices go up simultaneously. Besides, the price increase in the four energy sectors doesn’t influence other industries in an accumulation form but actually leads to a rollback in some of other industries. It is recommended to adopt diversified pricing strategies for different energy products, thus maximizing the value of each specific energy, and meanwhile achieving the goals of energy consumption reduction and price equilibrium.

Stock Price Prediction Based on the Bi-GRU-Attention Model

The stock market, as one of the hotspots in the financial field, forms a data system with a huge volume of data and complex relationships between various factors, making stock price prediction an area of keen interest for further in-depth mining and research. Mathematical statistics methods struggle to deal with nonlinear relationships in practical applications, making it difficult to explore deep information about stocks. Meanwhile, machine learning methods, particularly neural network models and composite models, which have achieved outstanding results in other fields, are being applied to the stock market with significant results. However, researchers have found that these methods do not grasp the essential information of the data as well as expected. In response to these issues, researchers are exploring better neural network models and combining them with other methods to analyze stock data. Thus, this paper proposes the ABiGRU composite model, which combines the attention mechanism and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (GRU) that can effectively extract data features for stock price prediction research. Models such as LSTM, GRU, and Bi-LSTM are selected for comparative experiments. To ensure the credibility and representativeness of the research data, daily stock price indices of BYD are chosen for closing price prediction studies across different models. The results show that the ABiGRU model has a lower prediction error and better fitting effect on three index-based stock prices, enhancing the learning efficiency of the neural network model and demonstrating good prediction stability. This suggests that the ABiGRU model is highly adaptable for stock price prediction.

The Prediction for the Consumer Price Index of Residents in Perspective of Time Series Method in Case of Chongqing

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by residents. This article uses the ARMA model to analyze the fluctuation trend of the CPI (taking Chongqing as an example) and make short-term predictions. To test the predictive performance of the model, the observation values from January to December 2023 were retained as the reference object for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model. Finally, through trial predictions of the data from May to August 2023, it was found that the constructed model had good fitting performance.

The Influence of Built Environment on the Spatial Distribution of Housing Price:Based on Multiple Big Data and Hedonic Model

In recent years,more and more researches focus on the self characteristics and spatial location of housing,and explore the influencing factors of urban housing price from the micro perspective.As representative of big cities,spatial distribution pattern of housing price in national central cities has attracted much attention.In order to return the spatial distribution pattern of housing price to the research on influencing factors of housing price,the reasons behind the spatial distribution pattern of housing price in three national central cities:Beijing,Wuhan and Chongqing are explored.The results show that①urban housing price is affected by many factors.Due to different social and economic conditions in each city,there are differences in the influence direction of the proximity to expressways,city squares,universities and living facilities,characteristics of companies and enterprises on Beijing,Wuhan and Chongqing.②Various factors have different value-added effects on housing price in different cities.The location of ring line in Beijing and Wuhan has the greatest increase effect on housing price,while metro station of Chongqing has the greatest increase effect on housing price.

Critical Exercise Price for American Floating Strike Lookback Option in a Mixed Jump-Diffusion Model

This paper studies the critical exercise price of American floating strike lookback options under the mixed jump-diffusion model. By using It formula and Wick-It-Skorohod integral, a new market pricing model established under the environment of mixed jumpdiffusion fractional Brownian motion. The fundamental solutions of stochastic parabolic partial differential equations are estimated under the condition of Merton assumptions. The explicit integral representation of early exercise premium and the critical exercise price are also given, then the American floating strike lookback options factorization formula is obtained, the results is generalized the classical Black-Scholes market pricing model.

Model for Bidding and Tendering with Bill of Quantities Based on Bid-Winning Estimate at Reasonable Low Price

The possibility and rationality of introducing an bid-winning estimate based on a reasonable low price into construction bidding mode with bill of quantities were analyzed by setting up a model for bidding and tendering, and the functions of the estimate of reasonable low price in the bidding were revealed. On this basis, a new bidding mode of the project with bill of quantities was pro- posed. The application of the new mode will be advantageous to the promotion of the bill of quantities in China.

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.

Impact of Accessibility on Housing Prices in Dalian City of China Based on a Geographically Weighted Regression Model

This paper studies the relationship between accessibility and housing prices in Dalian by using an improved geographically weighted regression model and house prices, traffic, remote sensing images, etc. Multi-source data improves the accuracy of the spatial differentiation that reflects the impact of traffic accessibility on house prices. The results are as follows: first, the average house price is 12 436 yuan(RMB)/m^2, and reveals a declining trend from coastal areas to inland areas. The exception was Guilin Street, which demonstrates a local peak of house prices that decreases from the center of the street to its periphery. Second, the accessibility value is 33 minutes on average, excluding northern and eastern fringe areas, which was over 50 minutes. Third, the significant spatial correlation coefficient between accessibility and house prices is 0.423, and the coefficient increases in the southeastern direction. The strongest impact of accessibility on house prices is in the southeastern coast, and can be seen in the Lehua, Yingke, and Hushan communities, while the weakest impact is in the northwestern fringe, and can be seen in the Yingchengzi, Xixiaomo, and Daheishi community areas.

Application of GARCH Model in Research on Price of Agricultural Products

Taking the price of grain in Guizhou Province as an example, by establishing GARCH model, I calculate VAR of logarithm return of grain price index, in order to conduct research on the variation law of price of the agricultural products. The results show that VAR of grain in Guizhou has variation. After the year 2010, VAR value is gradually increasing, and the price variation risk of grain market tends to increase progressively. Based on the characteristics of grain price variation, a series of corresponding proposals are put forward to stabilize the grain price as follows: strengthen the agricultural infrastructure construction, and promote the agricultural overall production capacity; reinforce the market supervision on the circulation field of agricultural products, and maintain market order; improve regulation system of agricultural products, and stabilize the price of agricultural products; strengthen mobility regulation, and prevent a flood of speculative cash.

Balance of Datum Land Prices Among Cities Based on the City Gravitation Model and Stochastic Diffusion Equation

城市的资料陆地价格的平衡被完成加音地区性打价格并且让价格真正在城市之中反映不同经济发展层次和陆地价格。明智的线性插值平衡方法广泛地使用了的当前的片有总是在一些城市之中导致不能令人满意的平衡的二个缺点。当到包围地区的中央城市里的陆地价格的过量到达某个度时，周围的城市里的陆地价格与本地陆地等级和土地利用水平一致不仅，而且在中央城市里由陆地价格的散开影响了。因此，土地基于城市引力模型和随机的散开方程定价的资料的一个新平衡计划向前被带。最后，新方法在湖北省在资料陆地价格平衡的实践被检验，中国。

DYNAMIC PRICE MODEL BASED ON TRANSMISSION DELAY——PETROLEUM PRICE FLUCTUATION IN CHINA

Petroleum is a kind of fundamental energy resource.Its price fluctuation transmits from upper-stream industry to the lower-stream industry as the production factors price changes.And this leads to the price changes of final consumption.Meantime,due to the cycle of industrial chain,the price changes of lower-stream industry also affect the upper-stream industry in return.This price transmission path is quite complicated.Firstly,it includes both direct and indirect paths;secondly,the transmission process is accompanied with time delay.The traditional input-output price model based on cost-push theory can efficiently solve the first problem when estimating the impact of price fluctuation on the whole price system.However,it neither reflects the dynamic characteristics of price transmission with time nor solves the second problem.To solve this problem,this paper uses the directed weighted network to describe the price transmission among industrial sectors by taking the time-dimension into account,and dynamic price transmission network model is constructed.This model not only describes transmission time delay more accurately,but also calculates the price fluctuation dynamically.On this basis,by utilizing the 2007 Chinese input-output table,this paper conducts empirical analysis on the impact of petroleum price fluctuation on other sectors.The empirical results indicate that the price fluctuation transmission mainly depends on two factors,the price reaction period T_k and the consumption relationship with petroleum a_(ik).1) If t < T_k,then the price change of sector k at period t △p_k^t = 0,the petroleum price fluctuation has not transmitted to the sector k,so the price of sector k remains unchanged.2) If t > T_k,then △p_k^t > 0,and the greater a_(ik),the higher price change rate.3) If t→∞,it is the same with that in traditional input-output price model.So it can be clearly seen that dynamic price transmission network model is more general than the traditional model,and the traditional model is just an asymptotical special case when time approaches to infinity.

Forecast on Price of Agricultural Futures in China Based on ARIMA Model

The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The soybean future contracts are taken as an example to simulate the forecast based on the auto-regression coefficient(p),differential times(d) and moving average coefficient(q). The results show that ARIMA model is better to simulate and forecast the trend of closing prices of soybean futures contract,and it is applicable to forecasting the price of agricultural futures.

Short-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting Models for the Future Exchange of Mongolian Natural Sea Buckthorn Market

Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.

SIMPLEST DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION OF STOCK PRICE,ITS SOLUTION AND RELATION TO ASSUMPTION OF BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL

Two kinds of mathematical expressions of stock price, one of which based on certain description is the solution of the simplest differential equation (S.D.E.) obtained by method similar to that used in solid mechanics,the other based on uncertain description (i.e., the statistic theory)is the assumption of Black_Scholes's model (A.B_S.M.) in which the density function of stock price obeys logarithmic normal distribution, can be shown to be completely the same under certain equivalence relation of coefficients. The range of the solution of S.D.E. has been shown to be suited only for normal cases (no profit, or lost profit news, etc.) of stock market, so the same range is suited for A.B_ S.M. as well.

Comparison of ARIMA and ANN Models Used in Electricity Price Forecasting for Power Market

In power market, electricity price forecasting provides significant information which can help the electricity market participants to prepare corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their profits. This paper introduces the models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) which are applied to the price forecasts for up to 3 steps 8 weeks ahead in the UK electricity market. The half hourly data of historical prices are obtained from UK Reference Price Data from March 22nd to July 14th 2010 and the predictions are derived from a sliding training window with a length of 8 weeks. The ARIMA with various AR and MA orders and the ANN with different numbers of delays and neurons have been established and compared in terms of the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of price forecasts. The experimental results illustrate that the ARIMA (4,1,2) model gives greater improvement over persistence than the ANN (20 neurons, 4 delays) model.

Empirical Study on the Impact of Rural Labor Force Flow on the Price of Agricultural Products——A Method Based on VEC Model

Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007.Chows breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product.Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product.Rural labor force flow,as an exogenous force,affects the agricultural production,and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products.Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong,then grows gradually weaker,and reaches its peak value at the year 1998.With the development of rural society and economy and the market process,rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product,which has periodic characteristics.In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products,the following countermeasures are put forward:vigorously developing vocational education,increasing the support for agricultural production,and making active employment measures.

Empirical Analysis of ARCH Family Models on Oil Price Fluctuations

This paper selects the daily data of national oil prices from January 2, 2014 to February 28, 2019, establishes an ARMA (2, 0) model, and tests its residuals for ARCH effects. Finally, the TARCH (1, 1) model is determined to quantitatively analyze the volatility of the crude oil market.