A Decision Support System for Economic Development and Price Reform

In this paper, we present a real decision support system applied to China's macroeconomic management. The structure, design and functions of the system are discussed, and the problems occurring in designing and making the system are also studied. A case study for China's petroleum price reform is given at the end of the paper.

How did the price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in China evolve from 1999 to 2015? The role of natural gas price reform

As a cleaner,high-efficiency,and low-carbon fuel,natural gas has been an important fuel resource for China.To achieve a substantial increase in natural gas demand,China has sought to reform its natural gas pricing mechanism.Employing a set of unbalanced panel data for China’s 30 provinces covering 1999-2015,this study aims to estimate the evolving price and income elasticities of natural gas demand and explore the effect of natural gas price reform in China.For this purpose,a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity is utilized.The results suggest that although natural gas demand in China still lacks negative price elasticity,the phenomenon is improving.Moreover,the estimates suggest that natural gas demand in China is indeed becoming increasingly sensitive to income changes.Our estimates also provide strong evidence in favor of the effect of natural gas price reform on the change in price elasticity as the price elasticity decreases in five of the seven regions.In addition,the results indicate large variations in the change in price and income elasticities of natural gas demand across China’s regions.Natural gas demand is becoming more price inelastic in Southwest China and Northwest China,while such demand in North China and East China responds less sensitively to income changes.These findings offer several policy suggestions for the reform of China’s natural gas market at the national and regional levels.

Energy Price Reform in China

Market-based reform of energy prices is the most effective approach to enhancing energy efficiency. The policies of energy conservation and enhancing energy efficiency in the 11th Five-year Plan period （2006-2010） work directly to set up a series of reform measures related to energy pricing by market mechanism. Energy price reform will deeply influence China＇s industrial interest pattern, and its development in the next five years and even 10 or 20 years. This paper analyzes the significance, timing, present status and problems related to energy price reform, and discusses the goal, principle and measures of coal, electricity, oil and gas price reform separately.

Study on the Influencing Factors of Land Transfer Price in the Context of Rural Land Reform

Agricultural land is the key to large-scale agricultural management,and the transfer price is the key to the success or failure of land transfer. At present,there are many problems in the pricing of rural land transfer in China,such as low price,random pricing,and large price difference,which seriously hinder the development of rural land transfer. Drawing lessons from the research results of domestic and foreign scholars,combined with the actual situation of rural land transfer in China,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of land transfer price in the context of rural land reform. Finally,according to the influence of different factors on the behavior of agricultural land transfer,this paper proposes establishing and perfecting the evaluation system of contracted land,perfecting the evaluation institution of transferred land assets and establishing a unified dynamic monitoring system of land transfer price in the whole country,and then driving the broad masses of farmers to get rich together,which is of great significance to achieving the revitalization of China’s rural areas.

The Variation Law of the Market Price of Pork in Beijing City

In order to research the fluctuation law of price of pork in Beijing City and determine its fluctuation cycle,we use level indicator analysis,speed indicator analysis,the coefficient of variation,the seasonal adjustment model and the HP filter method,to analyze the data on the market price of pork in 8 wholesale markets in Beijing City during the period 2002-2011.The results show that the annual price of pork in wholesale markets in Beijing City shows a gradual upward trend;during the period 2002-2011,the price of pork in Beijing City experienced three full fluctuation cycle,and each fluctuation cycle was roughly 38 months;the price of pork within the year shows a trend of " one trough,one crest",and the interval of high prices is mainly concentrated in June-december;the amount of pork for sale within the year is basically inversely correlated with the price.Therefore,we should strengthen the monitoring of pig production information and market information,to ensure the sufficient supply of pork,and stabilize the market price of pork.In addition,according to the variation law of the market price of pork,improving the purchasing,storage and allocation work mechanism of the reserve meat is also necessary to stabilizing the market price of pork.

Goal and Progress of Power Tariff Reform——An interview with Liu Zhenqiu,Vice Director ofDepartment of Price,NDRC

● Power tariffreform has made many important and substantialprogresses in respect ofmarketization● The benchmark tariff is a revolutionary progress made in China's power tariff reform● Coal-electricity price linkage is a transitional approach which needs further improvement● The principle of T&D pricing is "cost plus profit," but it can also be based on pro rata control● China's electricity market should choose the mode of bilateral contracting combined withcentralized market● The direction of the power tariff reform is that electricity price shall be controlled mainly by the re-lationship between supply and demand in the

Price定律Trueswell定律普适性研究

Two important parameters influencing the concentrated distribution of theses are analyzed,and two important conclusions drawn from calculating all possible values of the parameters by a computer through estimating the related parameters and applying the generalized Egghe’s formula are given:the Price’s square root rule does not exit,and the results described by another statement of the Price’s Law and the conclusion of the Trueswell’s Law would appear in some conditions.

Comment on Price Regulation of Railway

Basing on the economic analysis of railway＇s natural monopoly, we begin from the foreign models to analyze the experiences of America and England. We give some advice on price regulation of China railway industry from fixing price method, supervised objects, patterns and institution.

2023年中国成品油行业运行特点与近期展望

2023年,中国炼油产能再创新高,炼厂开工率回升,成品油产量大幅增长;成品油消费恢复至疫情前水平,不同品种恢复节奏存在差异,航空煤油消费明显恢复;成品油消费结构变化明显,供需差量扩大;在国际原油价格高位宽幅震荡背景下,成品油批发价格小幅增长;成品油商业库存“汽跌柴涨”,油库建设需求旺盛;成品油进口大幅下降,俄罗斯成为中国成品油进口主要来源国,成品油出口量继续增加,主要出口至新加坡;多项市场专项整治方案出台,规范成品油市场运行,推动行业高质量发展。2024年,中国成品油市场监管仍将持续完善,炼油行业将继续扩能,成品油产量将继续增长,成品油消费将回归低速增长通道,国际原油价格将宽幅震荡加剧成品油市场价格波动风险。

证券市场法律威慑力与审计定价——基于新《证券法》的准自然实验

2019年《证券法》的修订是我国证券市场法制发展的重要里程碑,大幅提高了对证券市场违法违规行为的惩罚和威慑力度。采用双重差分法探究新《证券法》实施对审计定价影响的结果表明,新《证券法》实施后,上市公司的审计定价显著提升,且对于信息披露质量越差的公司,其定价提升幅度越大。机制检验表明,新《证券法》实施后,审计工作的时长显著增加、审计定价过低的现象得到缓解、高风险以及治理水平较低公司的审计风险溢价显著提升。进一步研究表明,在新《证券法》实施后,相比信息披露质量较好的公司,信息披露质量较差公司的盈余质量提升幅度和财务重述概率下降幅度均更大。上述研究结论为我国证券市场法律法规的制定和修订提供了有益的经验证据和理论依据,为企业管理者应对严格的制度环境提供了有针对性的启示。

“价补分离”改革对中国玉米生产的影响效应与作用机制

基于2009—2020年玉米主产省市域层面数据,采用DID模型和中介效应模型,探究“价补分离”改革对中国玉米生产的影响效应与作用机制。研究表明:价补分离政策显著减少了玉米播种面积,提高了玉米单位面积产量,并降低了玉米总产量;价补分离政策对玉米生产的影响具有时效性,这一影响随时间推移而减弱;价补分离政策通过增加竞争作物种植比例来减少玉米播种面积,同时促进了粮食作物种植结构优化;价补分离政策通过增加农业机械化水平促进了玉米单产;玉米播种面积的负向效应大于玉米单产的正向效应,价补分离政策通过减少玉米播种面积,最终使玉米总产量降低。

有效市场、有为政府与深化能源体制革命

能源体制革命是能源安全新战略的组成部分。本文从市场建设、价格改革、管理优化、法治完善等方面,梳理了2014年“四个革命、一个合作”能源安全新战略,此战略提出后我国深入推进能源体制改革,本文分析了新形势下深化能源体制改革面临的新要求,对进一步深化能源体制改革进行了探论和建议。

深圳市公立中医医院医疗服务价格改革历程与思考

通过梳理深圳市公立中医医院医疗服务价格改革历程,分析优势与难点,提出动态调整中医药服务价格,定价应体现中医劳务价值和技术价值,完善医疗服务价格目录,建立中医医疗技术评定指标体系等建议,以助推中医药综合改革,优化深圳中医医疗服务价格改革模式。

DIP支付方式下医保供给侧政策协同对费用控制的影响研究

目的:本研究旨在探索DIP支付方式与其他医保供给侧政策间的协同效果。方法:以全国DIP改革试点城市A市为处理组,未改革城市B市为对照组进行比较研究。收集2019—2022年共1120个公立医疗机构样本,采用双重差分法对住院医疗总费用及部分费用结构进行分析。结果:A市DIP改革对医疗机构住院医疗总费用、住院检查化验总费用产生显著的抑制效应,对住院药品总费用和住院材料总费用未产生影响。结论:DIP支付方式发挥显著控费效果,住院医疗总费用得到有效控制;单纯采取调价政策与集采政策的控费效果尚有不足;DIP与其他供给侧政策协同,促进医疗费用结构更加合理。建议医保部门注重发挥供给侧政策协同作用,共同推动医保基金使用效率提升。

关于水价、水权、水资源税费改革协同发力的思考

运用系统思维,深化水价形成机制、水权及水资源税改革,促进协同发力,是当前和今后一个时期深化水利改革的重点任务。文章在总结改革进展、分析新形势新要求的基础上,对水价、水权、水资源税费的基本属性、改革目的、重点内容进行理论解析,分析了三者间的耦合关系,提出了水价、水权、水资源税费改革协同发力的总体考虑和相关建议。

“双碳”目标引领下我国《可再生能源法》的再修改

“双碳”目标背景下,再次修改《可再生能源法》是适应产业发展变化的现实需要,也是引导产业未来健康发展、保障电力体制改革顺利进行的需要。《可再生能源法》应在立法目标的指引下,按照“法目的-法原则-法制度”的思路再次修改。其中,固定电价制度向可再生能源配额制度转型是《可再生能源法》再次修改的重点。可再生能源配额制度设计存在复杂的经验选择,涉及可再生能源配额目标的确立、配额的分配、配额的履行以及现有固定电价制度规则如何与配额制度衔接等问题,这些内容都是《可再生能源法》再次修改的重点和难点。

我国牛肉价格波动影响因素研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

为保证牛肉价格合理稳定、推动牛肉市场持续健康发展,文章基于2011年12月—2022年12月中国畜牧业月度数据,以内部传导和外部冲击为视角,选取玉米价格、生产者预期、犊牛价格、国家政策构建VAR模型,实证检验我国牛肉价格波动影响因素及程度。结果显示,玉米价格、生产者预期、犊牛价格、国家政策均可对牛肉价格造成影响。其中,玉米价格可通过内部传导机制对我国牛肉价格波动产生显著影响,且稳定贡献率在8%左右;国家政策可通过外部冲击机制对我国牛肉价格波动形成显著影响,贡献率为15%;前期牛肉价格可显著影响后期牛肉市场价格。因此,文章提出降低肉牛产业饲料成本、加大肉牛产业政府财政支持力度、完善牛肉价格波动市场监管体系的建议,以期为稳定牛肉价格、促进畜牧产业可持续发展提供参考。

电力市场化改革与全国统一碳市场建设关联协调发展的研究探索——基于交叉补贴和价格传导的双重视角

“电—碳”市场协同发展在推动能源清洁发展、应对气候治理方面具有重要作用,然而当前我国电力市场和碳市场运行相对独立,二者发展协调性亟待提高。鉴于此,基于交叉补贴和价格传导的双重视角,对电力市场中不同类型用户间的电价交叉补贴、电碳市场关联的价格传导效应以及碳市场的价格设计进行细致探讨具有重要理论意义,并且通过探讨设计电碳市场关联协调发展机制如何推动实现碳达峰、碳中和目标具有重要现实意义。具体来讲,电力市场化改革与全国统一碳市场建设关联协调发展可以从三个方面进行研究:第一,基于交叉补贴视角,明晰交叉补贴如何引致能源效率损失并降低社会福利;第二,围绕电力市场化改革和“双碳”目标,探讨电力市场价格扭曲导致的无谓损失如何影响碳排放,进而通过电力价格机制优化实现碳约束目标;第三,聚焦价格传导,在评估电力市场效率基础上考察电碳关联条件下碳价对电价的传导率,对不同场景下碳市场的碳价进行优化设计。深入探讨上述三方面问题将对驱动电力市场和碳市场协同发展,统筹推进碳达峰、碳中和具有重要的理论和现实意义。

高价彩礼的法治因应

彩礼以缔结婚姻为目的,传统婚姻模式、现代婚姻模式与理想婚姻模式下彩礼的制度原理各不相同。现代婚姻与理想婚姻模式之下,适当彩礼作为一种不违反法律与公序良俗的赠与行为,发挥着平衡男女双方婚育成本和保障女性权益的功能,具备合法性与合理性,被法治社会所允许。由于存在婚育隐忧、攀比之风、儿女有别及性别失衡现象,适当彩礼在一些地方畸变为高价彩礼。后者有悖社会公共利益,国家法律介入符合比例原则,具备法治正当性。高价彩礼呼吁“软硬混治”:在硬法治理层面,需要明确彩礼的范围并增加倡导性规则,同时完善用人单位保障、社会保障以及家庭保障等综合配套措施。在软法治理层面,要善用软法工具、提高立“法”科学性,宣扬先进文化、完善激励机制并打造多元治理主体格局、树立多措并举意识,让彩礼止于礼。