An Empirical Study of Asian Crude Oil Premiums

The price of Middle East crude oil exported to Asian countries has been higher than that to Europe and America for a long period, and this price differential made Asian countries pay more than European and American countries. Prior investigations found that ＂Asian Crude Oil Premium＂ did exist at a relatively low oil price level. However, world oil price soared after 2003, making the price of Middle East crude oil exported to European countries or America rise quickly, sometimes even higher than that to Asia. Under this situation, this paper uses the price of Middle East crude oil sold to Europe or America or Asia to test if the premium exists at a high oil price level and concludes that the crude oil price premium of Asia against America does not exist, but the premium of Asia against Europe still exists.

全球LNG贸易定价演变规律与新趋势及相关启示

天然气对保障我国能源安全、实现2060年“碳中和”意义重大,但是进口LNG定价话语权缺失和高资源成本却给我国天然气稳定供应带来了挑战。为了降低我国进口LNG定价和资源采购成本,在分析全球LNG贸易定价历史演变规律的基础上,系统总结了2020年新签LNG合约的定价趋势,对比了我国LNG进口长协定价模式及其存在的问题。研究结果表明:①全球LNG贸易定价机制已向多元化转变,区域特点和“亚洲溢价”问题明显,不同定价机制互为补充;②新签LNG长协与油价挂钩回归主导地位,挂钩斜率继续下降,出现动态混合S曲线;③我国LNG长协与油价挂钩占比高,尚不具备气—气竞争的市场条件且价格复议周期长。进而对我国LNG进口定价提出以下建议:①坚持“短期灵活”和“长期稳定”原则,综合运用气—气竞争、与Brent价格挂钩等多种方式,不能完全与油价脱钩;②参照全球新签合约及亚洲已复议合约,坚持市场平价原则,完善价格复议条款,缩短复议期;③国家要支持建设天然气交易中心和期货市场,尽快形成国际认可的区域基准价格;④提前做好预案,建立风险对冲机制,控制LNG进口资源总体成本。