A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic ...A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.展开更多
Risk assessment is a crucial component of collision warning and avoidance systems for intelligent vehicles.Reachability-based formal approaches have been developed to ensure driving safety to accurately detect potenti...Risk assessment is a crucial component of collision warning and avoidance systems for intelligent vehicles.Reachability-based formal approaches have been developed to ensure driving safety to accurately detect potential vehicle collisions.However,they suffer from over-conservatism,potentially resulting in false–positive risk events in complicated real-world applications.In this paper,we combine two reachability analysis techniques,a backward reachable set(BRS)and a stochastic forward reachable set(FRS),and propose an integrated probabilistic collision–detection framework for highway driving.Within this framework,we can first use a BRS to formally check whether a two-vehicle interaction is safe;otherwise,a prediction-based stochastic FRS is employed to estimate the collision probability at each future time step.Thus,the framework can not only identify non-risky events with guaranteed safety but also provide accurate collision risk estimation in safety-critical events.To construct the stochastic FRS,we develop a neural network-based acceleration model for surrounding vehicles and further incorporate a confidence-aware dynamic belief to improve the prediction accuracy.Extensive experiments were conducted to validate the performance of the acceleration prediction model based on naturalistic highway driving data.The efficiency and effectiveness of the framework with infused confidence beliefs were tested in both naturalistic and simulated highway scenarios.The proposed risk assessment framework is promising for real-world applications.展开更多
Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized ...Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.展开更多
A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges usingProbabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) procedure is presented for determining their failure probabilityunder random ground motion. Seismic input to the ...A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges usingProbabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) procedure is presented for determining their failure probabilityunder random ground motion. Seismic input to the bridge support is considered to be a riskconsistent response spectrum which is obtained from a separate analysis. For the response analysis,the bridge deck is modeled as a beam supported on springs at different points. The stiffnesses ofthe springs are determined by a separate 2D static analysis of cable-tower-deck system. The analysisprovides a coupled stiffness matrix for the spring system. A continuum method of analysis usingdynamic stiffness is Used to determine the dynamic properties of the bridges .The response of thebridge deck is obtained by the response spectrum method of analysis as applied to multi-degree offreedom system which duly takes into account the quasi - static component of bridge deck vibration.The fragility analysis includes uncertainties arising due to the variation in ground motion,material property, modeling, method of analysis, ductility factor and damage concentration effect.Probability of failure of the bridge deck is determined by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM)method of reliability. A three span double plane symmetrical fan type cable stayed bridge of totalspan 689 m, is used as an illustrative example. The fragility curves for the bridge deck failure areobtained under a number of parametric variations. Some of the important conclusions of the studyindicate that (ⅰ) not only vertical component but also the horizontal component of ground motionhas considerable effect on the probability of failure; (ⅱ) ground motion with no time lag betweensupport excitations provides a smaller probability of failure as compared to ground motion with verylarge time lag between support excitation; and (ⅲ) probability of failure may considerablyincrease for soft soil condition.展开更多
In this study, 15 mycotoxins were detected in 233 nut and dried fruit samples from China. The 15 mycotoxins included aflatoxins （AFs： AFB1, AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2）, trichothecene toxins （TCs： T-2, ZEA, ENA, ENA1, EN...In this study, 15 mycotoxins were detected in 233 nut and dried fruit samples from China. The 15 mycotoxins included aflatoxins （AFs： AFB1, AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2）, trichothecene toxins （TCs： T-2, ZEA, ENA, ENA1, ENB, ENB1 and BEA）, Alternaria toxins （ATs： TEN, AOH and AME） and ochratoxin A （OTA）. The mycotoxins were detected in 47.6% of the samples and all 15 of the mycotoxins were found. Two samples were positive for AFB1 and exceeded the maximum tolerable levels allowed in China. The contamination levels of the mycotoxins found in nuts, dried jujubes, raisins, dried figs and dried Iongans were in the ranges of 0.1-462.7, 0.2-247.3, 0.8-10.1,0.2-384.1 and 0.1-89.2 μg kg^-1, respectively. Dried figs （80.0%） had the highest incidence of mycotoxins, followed by dried Iongans （60.0%）, dried jujubes （57.1%）, nuts （43.6%） and raisins （26.7%）. The estimated daily intake （EDI） values of each individual mycotoxin and all of the mycotoxins collectively were calculated by both the deterministic approach （DA） and the probability approach （PA）. For risk characterization, dietary exposure to TCs, ATs and OTA through consumption of nuts and dried fruits according to both approaches, showed no health risk to Chinese adults by exposure to either individual mycotoxins or in combination. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work in which risk assessment of multimycotoxins is performed, specifically including the emerging ENNs and BEA, in nuts and dried fruits of China.展开更多
This paper attempts to provide an overview of risk assessment and management practice in underground rock engineering based on a review of the international literature and some personal experience. It is noted that th...This paper attempts to provide an overview of risk assessment and management practice in underground rock engineering based on a review of the international literature and some personal experience. It is noted that the terminologies used in risk assessment and management studies may vary from country to country. Probabilistic risk analysis is probably the most widely-used approach to risk assessment in rock engineering and in geotechnical engineering more broadly. It is concluded that great potential exists to augment the existing probabilistic methods by the use of Bayesian networks and decision analysis techniques to allow reasoning under uncertainty and to update probabilities, material properties and analyses as further data become available throughout the various stages of a project. Examples are given of the use of these methods in underground excavation engineering in China and elsewhere, and opportunities for their further application are identified.展开更多
To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed meth...To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed method was used,and an example was given to show how to use some specific risk metrics like CDF / LERF /ICDP / ILERP to analyze and manage the risk associated with activities in nuclear power plant operation. The advantage of this technique can be concluded from this paper,and this technique should be used more widely and deeply in nuclear industry.展开更多
In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic ...In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.展开更多
文摘A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.
基金supported by the proactive SAFEty systems and tools for a constantly UPgrading road environment(SAFE-UP)projectfunding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program(861570)。
文摘Risk assessment is a crucial component of collision warning and avoidance systems for intelligent vehicles.Reachability-based formal approaches have been developed to ensure driving safety to accurately detect potential vehicle collisions.However,they suffer from over-conservatism,potentially resulting in false–positive risk events in complicated real-world applications.In this paper,we combine two reachability analysis techniques,a backward reachable set(BRS)and a stochastic forward reachable set(FRS),and propose an integrated probabilistic collision–detection framework for highway driving.Within this framework,we can first use a BRS to formally check whether a two-vehicle interaction is safe;otherwise,a prediction-based stochastic FRS is employed to estimate the collision probability at each future time step.Thus,the framework can not only identify non-risky events with guaranteed safety but also provide accurate collision risk estimation in safety-critical events.To construct the stochastic FRS,we develop a neural network-based acceleration model for surrounding vehicles and further incorporate a confidence-aware dynamic belief to improve the prediction accuracy.Extensive experiments were conducted to validate the performance of the acceleration prediction model based on naturalistic highway driving data.The efficiency and effectiveness of the framework with infused confidence beliefs were tested in both naturalistic and simulated highway scenarios.The proposed risk assessment framework is promising for real-world applications.
文摘Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.
文摘A simplified fragility analysis of fan type cable stayed bridges usingProbabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) procedure is presented for determining their failure probabilityunder random ground motion. Seismic input to the bridge support is considered to be a riskconsistent response spectrum which is obtained from a separate analysis. For the response analysis,the bridge deck is modeled as a beam supported on springs at different points. The stiffnesses ofthe springs are determined by a separate 2D static analysis of cable-tower-deck system. The analysisprovides a coupled stiffness matrix for the spring system. A continuum method of analysis usingdynamic stiffness is Used to determine the dynamic properties of the bridges .The response of thebridge deck is obtained by the response spectrum method of analysis as applied to multi-degree offreedom system which duly takes into account the quasi - static component of bridge deck vibration.The fragility analysis includes uncertainties arising due to the variation in ground motion,material property, modeling, method of analysis, ductility factor and damage concentration effect.Probability of failure of the bridge deck is determined by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM)method of reliability. A three span double plane symmetrical fan type cable stayed bridge of totalspan 689 m, is used as an illustrative example. The fragility curves for the bridge deck failure areobtained under a number of parametric variations. Some of the important conclusions of the studyindicate that (ⅰ) not only vertical component but also the horizontal component of ground motionhas considerable effect on the probability of failure; (ⅱ) ground motion with no time lag betweensupport excitations provides a smaller probability of failure as compared to ground motion with verylarge time lag between support excitation; and (ⅲ) probability of failure may considerablyincrease for soft soil condition.
基金supported by the National Program for Quality and Safety Risk Assessment of Agricultural Products of China (GJFP2016003 and GJFP2017003)the Scientific and Technological Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS-ASTIP)
文摘In this study, 15 mycotoxins were detected in 233 nut and dried fruit samples from China. The 15 mycotoxins included aflatoxins （AFs： AFB1, AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2）, trichothecene toxins （TCs： T-2, ZEA, ENA, ENA1, ENB, ENB1 and BEA）, Alternaria toxins （ATs： TEN, AOH and AME） and ochratoxin A （OTA）. The mycotoxins were detected in 47.6% of the samples and all 15 of the mycotoxins were found. Two samples were positive for AFB1 and exceeded the maximum tolerable levels allowed in China. The contamination levels of the mycotoxins found in nuts, dried jujubes, raisins, dried figs and dried Iongans were in the ranges of 0.1-462.7, 0.2-247.3, 0.8-10.1,0.2-384.1 and 0.1-89.2 μg kg^-1, respectively. Dried figs （80.0%） had the highest incidence of mycotoxins, followed by dried Iongans （60.0%）, dried jujubes （57.1%）, nuts （43.6%） and raisins （26.7%）. The estimated daily intake （EDI） values of each individual mycotoxin and all of the mycotoxins collectively were calculated by both the deterministic approach （DA） and the probability approach （PA）. For risk characterization, dietary exposure to TCs, ATs and OTA through consumption of nuts and dried fruits according to both approaches, showed no health risk to Chinese adults by exposure to either individual mycotoxins or in combination. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work in which risk assessment of multimycotoxins is performed, specifically including the emerging ENNs and BEA, in nuts and dried fruits of China.
文摘This paper attempts to provide an overview of risk assessment and management practice in underground rock engineering based on a review of the international literature and some personal experience. It is noted that the terminologies used in risk assessment and management studies may vary from country to country. Probabilistic risk analysis is probably the most widely-used approach to risk assessment in rock engineering and in geotechnical engineering more broadly. It is concluded that great potential exists to augment the existing probabilistic methods by the use of Bayesian networks and decision analysis techniques to allow reasoning under uncertainty and to update probabilities, material properties and analyses as further data become available throughout the various stages of a project. Examples are given of the use of these methods in underground excavation engineering in China and elsewhere, and opportunities for their further application are identified.
文摘To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed method was used,and an example was given to show how to use some specific risk metrics like CDF / LERF /ICDP / ILERP to analyze and manage the risk associated with activities in nuclear power plant operation. The advantage of this technique can be concluded from this paper,and this technique should be used more widely and deeply in nuclear industry.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51977005)。
文摘In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.
