The FAM(Fuzzy Asociative Memory)neural network model and its application in earthquake prediction

FAM(Fuzzy Associative Memory) Network Model, FAM Adaptive Learning Algorithm and Principal of FAM Inference Machine are introduced, and successfully application to ″New Generation Expert System for Earthquake Prediction″ (NGESEP). This system has good function for knowledge learning without disadvantages of neural network, which the learned knowledge implied in network is difficult to be understood or interpreted by expert system.

An ecohealth assessment of poultry production clusters (PPCs) for the livelihood and biosecurity improvement of small poultry producers in Asia

Background:Poultry production cluster(PPC)programs are key strategies in many Asian countries to engage small commercial poultry producers in high-value production chains and to control infectious poultry diseases.This study assessed the multiple impacts of PPCs through a transdisciplinary ecohealth approach in four Asian countries,and drew the implications for small producers to improve their livelihoods and reduce the risk of spreading infectious diseases in the poultry sector.Methods:The data collection combined both quantitative and qualitative methods.It comprised:formal structured household survey questionnaires,measuring the biosecurity level of poultry farms with a biosecurity score card;and key informant interviews.Descriptive statistics were used to process the quantitative data and a content analysis was used to process the qualitative data.Results:This research found that poultry farms in clusters do not necessarily have better economic performance than those outside PPCs.Many farmers in PPCs only consider them to be an advantage for expanding the scale of their poultry operations and improving household incomes,and they are less concerned about-and have limited capacities to-enhancing biosecurity and environmental management.We measured the biosecurity level of farms in PPCs through a 14-item checklist and found that biosecurity is generally very low across all sample sites.The increased flies,mosquitoes,rats,and smells in and around PPCs not only pollute the environment,but also cause social conflicts with the surrounding communities.Conclusion:This research concluded that a poultry cluster,mainly driven by economic objectives,is not necessarily a superior model for the control of infectious diseases.The level of biosecurity in PPCs was found to be low.Given the intensity of poultry operations in PPCs(farms are densely packed into clusters),and the close proximity to residential areas of some PPCs,the risk of spreading infectious diseases,in fact,increases.Good management and collective action for implementing biosecurity measures are key for small producers in PPCs to address common challenges and pursue health-based animal production practices.

Fast increasing of surface ozone concentrations in Pearl River Delta characterized by a regional air quality monitoring network during 2006–2011

Based on the observation by a Regional Air Quality Monitoring Network including 16 monitoring stations, temporal and spatial variations of ozone （O3）, NO2 and total oxidant （Ox） were analyzed by both linear regression and cluster analysis. A fast increase of regional O3 concentrations of 0.86 ppbWyr was found for the annual averaged values from 2006 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Such fast O3 increase is accompanied by a correspondingly fast NOx reduction as indicated by a fast NO2 reduction rate of 0,61 ppbV/yr. Based on a cluster analysis, the monitoring stations were classified into two major categories - rural stations （non-urban） and suburban/urban stations. The 03 concentrations at rural stations were relatively conserved while those at suburban/urban stations showed a fast increase rate of 2.0 ppbV/yr accompanied by a NO2 reduction rate of 1.2 ppbV/yr. Moreover, a rapid increase of the averaged O3 concentrations in springtime （13%/yr referred to 2006 level） was observed, which may result from the increase of solar duration, reduction of precipitation in Guangdong and transport from Eastern Central China. Application of smog production algorithm showed that the photochemical O3 production is mainly volatile organic compounds （VOC）-controlled. However, the photochemical O3 production is sensitive to both NOx and VOC for O3 pollution episode. Accordingly, it is expected that a combined NOx and VOC reduction will be helpful for the reduction of the O3 pollution episodes in Pearl River Delta while stringent VOC emission control is in general required for the regional O3 pollution control.