A Blind Spot in the Reframing of a Universe of Possibles: Towards a Suitable Model for Decision-Making Theory and A.I.

Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about possible states of nature, in order to make a better judgment while taking new evidence into account. Such a scientific model proposed for the general theory of decision-making, like all others in general, whether in statistics, economics, operations research, A.I., data science or applied mathematics, regardless of whether they are time-dependent, have in common a theoretical basis that is axiomatized by relying on related concepts of a universe of possibles, especially the so-called universe (or the world), the state of nature (or the state of the world), when formulated explicitly. The issue of where to stand as an observer or a decision-maker to reframe such a universe of possibles together with a partition structure of knowledge (i.e. semantic formalisms), including a copy of itself as it was initially while generalizing it, is not addressed. Memory being the substratum, whether human or artificial, wherein everything stands, to date, even the theoretical possibility of such an operation of self-inclusion is prohibited by pure mathematics. We make this blind spot come to light through a counter-example (namely Archimedes’ Eureka experiment) and explore novel theoretical foundations, fitting better with a quantum form than with fuzzy modeling, to deal with more than a reference universe of possibles. This could open up a new path of investigation for the general theory of decision-making, as well as for Artificial Intelligence, often considered as the science of the imitation of human abilities, while being also the science of knowledge representation and the science of concept formation and reasoning.

Evolutionary Decision-Making and Planning for Autonomous Driving Based on Safe and Rational Exploration and Exploitation

Decision-making and motion planning are extremely important in autonomous driving to ensure safe driving in a real-world environment.This study proposes an online evolutionary decision-making and motion planning framework for autonomous driving based on a hybrid data-and model-driven method.First,a data-driven decision-making module based on deep reinforcement learning(DRL)is developed to pursue a rational driving performance as much as possible.Then,model predictive control(MPC)is employed to execute both longitudinal and lateral motion planning tasks.Multiple constraints are defined according to the vehicle’s physical limit to meet the driving task requirements.Finally,two principles of safety and rationality for the self-evolution of autonomous driving are proposed.A motion envelope is established and embedded into a rational exploration and exploitation scheme,which filters out unreasonable experiences by masking unsafe actions so as to collect high-quality training data for the DRL agent.Experiments with a high-fidelity vehicle model and MATLAB/Simulink co-simulation environment are conducted,and the results show that the proposed online-evolution framework is able to generate safer,more rational,and more efficient driving action in a real-world environment.

Pressure stimulated current in progressive failure process of combined coal-rock under uniaxial compression:Response and mechanism

Effective monitoring of the structural health of combined coal-rock under complex geological conditions by pressure stimulated currents(PSCs)has great potential for the understanding of dynamic disasters in underground engineering.To reveal the effect of this way,the uniaxial compression experiments with PSC monitoring were conducted on three types of coal-rock combination samples with different strength combinations.The mechanism explanation of PSCs are investigated by resistivity test,atomic force microscopy(AFM)and computed tomography(CT)methods,and a PSC flow model based on progressive failure process is proposed.The influence of strength combinations on PSCs in the progressive failure process are emphasized.The results show the PSC responses between rock part,coal part and the two components are different,which are affected by multi-scale fracture characteristics and electrical properties.As the rock strength decreases,the progressive failure process changes obviously with the influence range of interface constraint effect decreasing,resulting in the different responses of PSC strength and direction in different parts to fracture behaviors.The PSC flow model is initially validated by the relationship between the accumulated charges of different parts.The results are expected to provide a new reference and method for mining design and roadway quality assessment.

Consensus model of social network group decision-making based on trust relationship among experts and expert reliability

Due to people’s increasing dependence on social networks,it is essential to develop a consensus model considering not only their own factors but also the interaction between people.Both external trust relationship among experts and the internal reliability of experts are important factors in decision-making.This paper focuses on improving the scientificity and effectiveness of decision-making and presents a consensus model combining trust relationship among experts and expert reliability in social network group decision-making(SN-GDM).A concept named matching degree is proposed to measure expert reliability.Meanwhile,linguistic information is applied to manage the imprecise and vague information.Matching degree is expressed by a 2-tuple linguistic model,and experts’preferences are measured by a probabilistic linguistic term set(PLTS).Subsequently,a hybrid weight is explored to weigh experts’importance in a group.Then a consensus measure is introduced and a feedback mechanism is developed to produce some personalized recommendations with higher group consensus.Finally,a comparative example is provided to prove the scientificity and effectiveness of the proposed consensus model.

Bi-level model for shared parking decision-making based on parking lot assignment simulation

In order to carry out comprehensive decision-making of multi-class shared parking measures within a region, a bilevel model assisting decision-making is proposed. The upper level selects parkers＇ average satisfaction and the violation rate during peak hours as indices in object function, and sets probability distribution models describing dynamic parking demand of each site, the feasibility of shared parking scenarios and occupancy requirements during peak hours of each parking lot as restrictions. The simulation model in the lower level sets up rules to assign each parker in the random parking demand series to the proper parking lot. An iterative method is proposed to confirm the state of each parking lot at the start of formal simulations. Besides, two patterns linking initialization and formal simulation are presented to acquire multiple solutions. The results of the numerical examples indicate the effectiveness of the model and solution methods.

DECISION-MAKING OF SLICING SCHEME IN FUSED DEPOSITION MODELING PROCESS BASED ON ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS

Based on analyzing the influences of a slicing scheme on stair-stepping effect, supporting structure, efficiency and deformation, etc. , analytical hierarchical process （AHP） combining with fuzzy synthetic evaluation is introduced to make decision in slicing schemes for a processing part. The application in determining the slicing scheme for a computer mouse during prototyping shows that the method increases the rationality during decision- making and improves quality and efficiency for the prototyping part.

A Decision-Making Framework Model of Cutting Fluid Selection for Green Manufacturing and the Case Study

Pursuing the green manufacturing (GM) of products i s very beneficial in the alleviation of environment burdens. In order to reap such benefits, green manufacturing is involved in every aspect of manufacturing proc esses. During the machining process, cutting fluid is one of the main roots of e nvironmental pollution. And how to make an optimal selection for cutting fluid f or GM is an important path to reduce the environmental pollution. The objective factors of decision-making problems in the traditional selection of cutting flu id are usually two: quality and cost. But from the viewpoint of GM, environmenta l impact (E) should be considered together. In this paper, a multi-object d ecision-making model of cutting fluid selection for GM is put forward, in which the objects of Quality (Q), Cost(C) and Environmental impact (E) are considered together. In this model, E means to minimize the environmental impact, Q means to maximize the quality and C means to minimize the cost. Each objective is anal yzed in detail too. A case study on a decision-making problem of cutting fluid selection in a gear hobbing process is analyzed, and the result shows the model is practical.

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

With the fast growth of Chinese economic, more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects. How to select the environmental investment projects （alternatives） for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria. A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports＇ information and the data of the real projects. And, the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore, by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals （WSI）, the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed. The result shows that some criteria, such as “proportion of benefit to project cost”, will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not. The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion. So, some criteria such as “proportion of benefit to project cost” are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

COLLISION AVOIDANCE DECISION-MAKING MODEL OF MULTI-AGENTS IN VIRTUAL DRIVING ENVIRONMENT WITH ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Collision avoidance decision-making models of multiple agents in virtual driving environment are studied. Based on the behavioral characteristics and hierarchical structure of the collision avoidance decision-making in real life driving, delphi approach and mathematical statistics method are introduced to construct pair-wise comparison judgment matrix of collision avoidance decision choices to each collision situation. Analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is adopted to establish the agents＇ collision avoidance decision-making model. To simulate drivers＇ characteristics, driver factors are added to categorize driving modes into impatient mode, normal mode, and the cautious mode. The results show that this model can simulate human＇s thinking process, and the agents in the virtual environment can deal with collision situations and make decisions to avoid collisions without intervention. The model can also reflect diversity and uncertainly of real life driving behaviors, and solves the multi-objective, multi-choice ranking priority problem in multi-vehicle collision scenarios. This collision avoidance model of multi-agents model is feasible and effective, and can provide richer and closer-to-life virtual scene for driving simulator, reflecting real-life traffic environment more truly, this model can also promote the practicality of driving simulator.

Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite/Aluminum Riveted Joints Subjected to Pull-Through Loading

Out-of-plane mechanical properties of the riveted joints restrict the performance of the wing box assembly of airplane.It is necessary to investigate the pull-through performance of the composite/metal riveted joints in order to guide the riveting design and ensure the safety of the wing box assembly.The progressive failure mechanism of composite/aluminum riveted joint subjected to pull-through loading was investigated by experiments and finite element method.A progressive damage model based on the Hashin-type criteria and zero-thickness cohesive zone method was developed by VUMAT subroutine,which was validated by both open-hole tensile test and three-point bending test.Predicted load-displacement response,failure modes and damage propagation were analysed and compared with the results of the pull-through tests.There are 4 obvious characteristic stages on the load-displacement curve of the pull-through test and that of the finite element model:first load take-up stage,damage stage,second load take-up stage and failure stage.Relative error of stiffness,first load peak and second load peak between finite element method and experiments were 8.1%,-3.3%and 10.6%,respectively.It was found that the specimen was mainly broken by rivet-penetration fracture and delamination of plies of the composite laminate.And the material within the scope of the rivet head is more dangerous with more serious tensile damages than other regions,especially for 90°plies.This study proposes a numerical method for damage prediction and reveals the progressive failure mechanism of the hybrid material riveted joints subjected to the pull-through loading.

NUMERICAL MODELLING OF PROGRESSIVE FAILURE IN PARTICULATE COMPOSITES LIKE SANDSTONE

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Reliability Analysis of HEE Parameters via Progressive Type-II Censoring with Applications

A new extended exponential lifetime model called Harris extended-exponential(HEE)distribution for data modelling with increasing and decreasing hazard rate shapes has been considered.In the reliability context,researchers prefer to use censoring plans to collect data in order to achieve a compromise between total test time and/or test sample size.So,this study considers both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimates of the Harris extended-exponential distribution parameters and some of its reliability indices using a progressive Type-II censoring strategy.Under the premise of independent gamma priors,the Bayesian estimation is created using the squared-error and general entropy loss functions.Due to the challenging form of the joint posterior distribution,to evaluate the Bayes estimates,samples from the full conditional distributions are generated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques.For each unknown parameter,the highest posterior density credible intervals and asymptotic confidence intervals are also determined.Through a simulated study,the usefulness of the various suggested strategies is assessed.The optimal progressive censoring plans are also shown,and various optimality criteria are investigated.Two actual data sets,taken from engineering and veterinary medicine areas,are analyzed to show how the offered point and interval estimators can be used in practice and to verify that the proposed model furnishes a good fit than other lifetimemodels:alpha power exponential,generalized-exponential,Nadarajah-Haghighi,Weibull,Lomax,gamma and exponential distributions.Numerical evaluations revealed that in the presence of progressively Type-II censored data,the Bayes estimation method against the squared-error(symmetric)loss is advised for getting the point and interval estimates of the HEE distribution.

Modeling of anisotropic polydispersed composites by progressive micromechanical approach

A progressive micromechanical method is presented in order to predict the elastic constants of polydispersed composites including multi-directional or randomly ori- ented reinforcement particles. Heterogeneities of various types are introduced into the matrices in a gradual manner. At each step, the Mori-Tanaka method is used to ob- tain the stiffness tensor of the intermediate medium used as a matrix of the following step. The proposed method is capable of introducing any kind of heterogeneities based on their dimensions, orientations, mechanical properties, and volume fractions to the ma- trix. Furthermore, suitable probability density functions can be defined for physical and structural parameters of the composite, including the level of the filler-matrix interfacial bonding, the aspect ratio, and the orientation of reinforcement particles. The efficiency of the iterative approach and the convergence of the solution are studied by computing the stiffness tensors of unidirectional and bidirectional particulate composites. The results of the present study are also compared with the literature data for a randomly oriented particulate composite.

Shared Decision-Making after Implementation of the Chronic Care Model (CCM)—An Evaluative Approach

Background: In paternalistic models, healthcare providers’ responsibility is to decide what is best for patients. The main concern is that such models fail to respect patient autonomy and do not promote patient responsibility. Aim: To evaluate mental healthcare team members’ perceptions of their own role in encouraging elderly persons to participate in shared decision-making after implementation of the CCM. The CCM is not an explanatory theory, but an evidence-based guideline and synthesis of best available evidence. Methods: Data were collected from two teams that took part in a focus group interview, and the transcript was analysed by means of qualitative thematic analysis. Results: One overall theme emerged—Preventing the violation of human dignity based on three themes, namely, Changing understanding and attitudes, Increasing depressed elderly persons’ autonomy and Clarifying the mental healthcare team coordinator’s role and responsibility. The results of this study reveal that until recently, paternalism has been the dominant decision-making model within healthcare, without any apparent consideration of the patient perspective. Community mental healthcare can be improved by shared decision-making in which team members initiate a dialogue focusing on patient participation to prevent the violation of human dignity. However, in order to determine how best to empower the patient, team members need expert knowledge and intuition.

Disturbed bone remodelling activity varies in different stages of experimental, gradually progressive apical periodontitis in rats

Bone remodelling keeps going through the lifespan of human by bone formation and bone resorption.In the craniofacial region,mandibles act as the main force for biting and chewing,and also become susceptible to a common bone-loss disease,namely,apical periodontitis,once infected dental pulp is not treated timely,during which bone resorption occurs from the apical foramen to the apical bone area.Although conventional root canal treatment(RCT)can remove the most of the infection,chronical apical periodontitis due to incomplete removal of dental pulp and subsequent microleakage will become refractory and more challenging,and this process has scarcely been specifically studied as a bone remodelling issue in rat models.Therefore,to study chronical and refractory apical periodontitis owing to incomplete cleaning of infected dental pulp and microleackage in vivo,we establish a modified rat model of gradually progressive apical periodontitis by sealing residual necrotic dental pulp and introducing limited saliva,which simulates gradually progressive apical periodontitis,as observed in the clinical treatment of chronical and refractory apical periodontitis.We show that bone-loss is inevitable and progressive in this case of apical periodontitis,which confirms again that complete and sound root canal treatment is crucial to halt the progression of chronical and refractory apical periodontitis and promote bone formation.Interestingly,bone remodelling was enhanced at the initial stage of apical periodontitis in this model while reduced with a high osteoblast number afterwards,as shown by the time course study of the modified model.Suggesting that the pathological apical microenvironment reserve its hard tissue formation ability to some degree but in a disturbed manner.Hopefully,our findings can provide insights for future bone regenerative treatment for apical periodontitisassociated bone loss.

A progressive processing method for breast cancer detection via UWB based on an MRI-derived model

Ultra-wideband （UWB） microwave imaging is a promising method for breast cancer detection based on the large contrast of electric parameters between the malignant tumor and its surrounded normal breast organisms. In the case of multiple tumors being present, the conventional imaging approaches may be ineffective to detect all the tumors clearly. In this paper, a progressive processing method is proposed for detecting more than one tumor. The method is divided into three stages： primary detection, refocusing and image optimization. To test the feasibility of the approach, a numerical breast model is developed based on the realistic magnetic resonance image （MRI）. Two tumors are assumed embedded in different positions. Successful detection of a 3.6 mm-diameter tumor at a depth of 42 mm is achieved. The correct information of both tumors is shown in the reconstructed image, suggesting that the progressive processing method is promising for multi-tumor detection.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi-time points and multi-indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

The Credit Risk Assessment Model of Internet Supply Chain Finance: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model with the Principle of Variable Weight

The characteristics of the financing model are firstly analyzed when the e-commerce enterprises participate in the supply chain finance. Internet supply chain finance models are divided into three categories with the standard of whether the Electronic commerce enterprises provide funds for small and medium enterprises instead of banks. And then we further study the financing process and the functions of the e-commerce platform with specific examples. Finally, combined with the characteristics of the supply chain finance model, we set up a small and medium enterprises credit evaluation model based on the principle of variable weight with its dynamic data. At the same time, a multi time points and multi indicators decision-making method based on the principle of variable weight is proposed and a specific example is presented. In this paper, the Multi-criteria decision-making model with the principle of variable weight has been used two times. At last, a typical case has been analyzed based on this model with a higher accuracy rate of credit risk assessment.

Practical Progress of SBAR Communication Model-Related Teaching in Clinical Teaching

This paper elaborates the core and essence of situation,background,assessment,recommendation(SBAR)communication model,clarify the application status of SBAR communication model in the clinical teaching of nursing students,and describe its effectiveness and limitations,so as to provide reference for improving clinical nursing teaching ability.

PROGRESSIVE FRACTURE MODELING OF THE FAILURE WAVE IN IMPACTED GLASS

The failure wave has been observed propagating in glass under impact loading since 1991. It is a continuous fracture zone which may be associated with the damage accumulation process during the propagation of shock waves. A progressive fracture model was proposed to describe the failure wave formation and propagation in shocked glass considering its heterogeneous meso-structures. The original and. nucleated microcracks will expand along the pores and other defects with concomitant dilation when shock loading is below the Hugoniot Elastic Limit. The governing equation of the failure wave is characterized by inelastic bulk strain with material damage and fracture. And the inelastic bulk strain consists of dilatant strain from nucleation and expansion of microcracks and condensed strain from the collapse of the original pores. Numerical simulation of the free surface velocity was performed and found in good agreement with planar impact experiments on K9 glass at China Academy of Engineering Physics. And the longitudinal, lateral and shear stress histories upon the arrival of the failure wave were predicted, which present the diminished shear strength and lost spall strength in the failed layer.