Isolated Area Load Forecasting using Linear Regression Analysis: Practical Approach

This paper presents an analysis to forecast the loads of an isolated area where the history of load is not available or the history may not represent the realistic demand of electricity. The analysis is done through linear regression and based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth depends. To determine the identification factors, areas are selected whose histories of load growth rate known and the load growth deciding factors are similar to those of the isolated area. The proposed analysis is applied to an isolated area of Bangladesh, called Swandip where a past history of electrical load demand is not available and also there is no possibility of connecting the area with the main land grid system.

Prediction of Hidden Granites in the Luziyuan Area of Yunnan Province and the Prospecting Direction

The Fe-Pb-Zn-Cu polymetallic deposits in the Luziyuan area, are of a sedimentary-reformed type related with magmatic hydrothermalism. Previous researches have suggested that the mineralization is closely related to the hidden granites, but little is known about these granites including their burial depth and scale, which has limited the establishment of prospecting models and the optimization of prospecting targets. Geophysical methods have a great exploration depth, and have played a unique role in the prediction of hidden granites. It is shown that granites have low density and high resistivity,

Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas

A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.

Shallow Analysis on the First Spring Soaking Rain Weather and Its Precipitation Enhancement Potential Forecast in Jinzhou Area in 2010

[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main influence system, forecast service, artificial precipitation enhancement operation and so on, the first spring soaking rain weather process in Jinzhou area in 2010 was summarized comprehensively. [Result] The weather situation characteristics of soaking rain were that the high-altitude cold air was weak, and the low-level warm wet airflow was obvious. The main influence systems were the high-altitude trough, the high-altitude shear line and the ground Mongolian cyclone. The ground inverted trough system advanced northward and got through with the same phase of Mongolian cyclone, which provided the certain energy and water vapor for the precipitation in Jinzhou area. It was one of key reasons for generating the soaking rain. The numerical forecast product played the certain guidance role in the forecast service work. The situation field forecast was accurate, but the precipitation forecast deviation was big. Therefore, the forecast service couldn’t depend on the numerical forecast product simply and totally, and should combine with the actual monitoring data to analyze and apply comprehensively. [Conclusion] The research played the safeguarding role in carrying out the large-scale artificial precipitation enhancement operation successfully in the whole area of Jinzhou.

Optical Remote-sensing Monitoring and Forecasting of Atmospheric Pollution in Huaibei Area, China

Huaibei is an energy city. Coal as the primary energy consumption brings a large number of regional pollution in Huaibei area. Differential optical absorption spectroscopy （DOAS） as optical remote sensing technology has been applied to monitor regional average concen- trations and inventory of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and ozone. DOAS system was set up and applied to monitor the main air pollutants in Huaibei area. Monitoring data were obtained from 7 to 28 August, 2011. Monitoring results show measurements in controlling pollution are effective, and emissions of pollutants are up to the national standard in Huaibei area. Prediction model was also created to track changing trend of pollutions. These will provide raw data support for effective evaluation of environmental quality in Huaibei area.

Forecasting of Cultivated Area in Egyptian Lands Using a Time Series Model for Sustainable Development

The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to 2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively, according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy development for future land using planning and agricultural production.

Characteristic Analysis and Forecast of Continuous High-temperature Weather in Xingtai Area of Hebei

Through the analysis of durative high-temperature weather process occurred in Xingtai area in June of 2010,and the statistics on relative humidity and 850 hPa of temperature on high temperature day in Xingtai area during 2001- 2010,it was concluded that 500 h Pa of stable warm high-pressure ridge situation and 850 hPa of strong warm air mass control were favorable circulation situations for the formation of high temperature;sinking and adiabatic warming of high-altitude air mass was an important cause of high temperature weather generation; ground humidity at 14： 00 was small,that is,the atmosphere was very dry,and it was sunny-cloudy（ high cirrus） weather,which was a necessary condition for the high temperature weather; westerly at some time was favorable condition for high temperature; 850 h Pa of temperature prediction at the station was the key.When the forecasted 850 h Pa of station temperature was 21 ℃ and above,it was reminded the forecasters in the high-temperature forecast process.

Study on the forecasting and maintenance system of special railway subsidence in mine area

The fully mechanized caving coal mining under the railway in mine area will result in difficulty maintenance of railway because of great distortion and subsidence speed of terrene and railway. If the subsidence forecasting is incorrect and maintenance measure is not suitable in the preceding and the process of mining, the normal operation of the railway in mine area will not be ensured and perhaps the safety accident will be resulted. The railway subsidence forecasting and maintenance system for fully mechanized caving coal face are studied and developed in this connection. Based on the accurate subsidence forecasting of the terrene and railway, the maintenance measure for track and switch turnout in railway is put forward in this system.

Load Forecasting Technique for System Expansion in Isolated Area Using Time Invariant Socio-Economic Factors of Identical Agglomerations

Load forecasting is a critical issue for operational planning as well as grid expansion to ensure an uninterruptable electric power system. Being a small but densely populated country in South Asia, Bangladesh has many isolated places which are not connected to national grid yet. If concern authority opts to expand grid to those areas, they need reliable demand data for designing and dimensioning of different power system entities, e.g., capacity, overhead line capacity, tie line capacity, spinning reserve, load-shedding scheduling, etc., for reliable operation and to prevent possible obligatory redesigning. This paper represents an analysis to forecast the electricity demand of an isolated island in Bangladesh where past history of electrical load demand is not available. The analysis is based on the identification of factors, e.g., population, literacy rate, per capita income, occupation, communication, etc., on which electrical load growth of an area depends. Data has been collected from the targeted isolated area and form a grid connected area which is similar to target area from social and geographical perspective. Weights of those factors on load have been calculated by matrix inversion. Demand of the new area is forecasted using these weights factors by matrix multiplication.

The Concept of MDSA （Macro Demand Spatial Approach） on Spatial Demand Forecasting for Main Development Area in Transmission Planning

MDSA （macro demand spatial approach） is an approach introduced in long time electricity demand forecasting considering location. It will be used at transmission planning and policy decision on electricity infrastructure development in a region. In the model, MDSA combined with PCA （principal component analysis） and QA （qualitative analysis） to determine main development area in region and the variables that affecting electricity demand in there. Main development area is an area with industrial domination as a driver of economic growth. The electricity demand driver variables are different for type of electricity consumer. However, they will be equal for main development areas. The variables which have no significant effect can be reduced by using PCA. The generated models tested to assess whether it still at the range of confidence level of electricity demand forecasting. At the case study, generated model for main development areas at South Sumatra Subsystem as a part of Sumatra Interconnection System is still in the range of confidence level. Thus, MDSA can be proposed as alternative approach in transmission planning that considering location.

西北地区主要锂矿资源分布特征及地球化学找矿远景预测

为圈定锂成矿远景区,采用已有1∶20万地球化学数据,选取西昆仑-阿尔金和阿尔泰两个主要锂矿带,基于锂元素地球化学空间分布及异常特征圈定锂矿远景区,为找矿突破战略行动选区服务。基于重点锂矿带以往1∶20万地球化学数据库,对元素相关性、背景及异常特征等参数进行再分析,结合已有锂矿床或锂矿(化)点,圈定找矿远景区。在昆仑-阿尔金地区圈定锂地球化学异常区15处,在阿尔泰圈定锂地球化学异常区12处。研究圈定27处异常区可为下一步锂矿找矿工作部署提供参考依据。

河南省嵩县九仗沟-东湾金矿区深部地球物理特征与找矿预测

深部金属矿探测是目前资源勘查的重要课题和方向,地球物理方法探测深度大、分辨率高,是深部金属矿探测最有效的手段之一。河南省嵩县九仗沟—东湾矿区处于熊耳山—外方山矿集区内的蛮峪—店房金矿带之北段,目前九仗沟—东湾矿区已发现的金矿床主要为500 m以浅深度,深部(500~2000 m)找矿勘查工作基本为空白。为了查明九仗沟—东湾矿区深、边部成矿潜力,实现接替资源找矿突破,在九仗沟—东湾矿区主矿段南北两端延伸方向上,布设EH-4双源大地电磁测深和大功率激电测深剖面。以九仗沟—东湾金矿床为背景,在分析地质背景、岩石物理性质基础上,综合区域重磁资料、物探剖面反演结果,分析各物探方法异常特征,厘清了研究区内与金矿有关的F1构造破碎蚀变带深部空间分布特征等信息,揭示了研究区内深部F1构造带附近的中低电阻、高极化区为找矿有利部位,根据此特征在500~2000 m深度范围内确定了4个深部预测找矿靶区,为下一步找矿勘查提供了相关依据。研究方法和成果为区域上开展同类型金矿床的深部找矿工作提供了思路和方向,具有重要的指导和实践意义。

胶东金矿与中生代区域性花岗岩关系及成矿预测和找矿方向

胶东地区是世界著名的金矿资源基地,截至2023年6月已累计探明金矿资源量已达5757余吨。与金矿成矿密切的中生代花岗岩分布广泛,岩石类型多样,也是山东省最发育、最典型的地区。本文对胶东地区金矿与中生代区域性花岗岩空间展布、形成时代和形成环境等关系进行了分析研究。区域性广泛分布的中生代花岗岩为晚侏罗世玲珑期(166~146 Ma)、早白垩世早期郭家岭期(135~123 Ma)、早白垩世晚期伟德山期(123~110 Ma)和崂山期(118~108 Ma),研究认为区域性岩浆事件一般持续10 Ma左右,而重熔型花岗岩一般持续20 Ma,反映了由基底岩石熔融到侵入结晶的2个阶段,它有一个由基底固体岩石熔融的过程,大致也需要10 Ma,既固体岩石熔融10 Ma,熔浆活动上侵结晶10 Ma。玲珑期重熔型花岗岩是扬子板块和华北板块碰撞的期后产物,郭家岭期岩浆事件代表了中国东部中生代构造体制转换的开始,伟德山期岩浆事件代表了构造体制转换的高峰期,崂山期岩浆事件代表了构造体制转换的结束期。86.8%的金矿赋存在玲珑期花岗岩中,6.9%的金矿赋存于郭家岭期花岗岩中,玲珑期花岗岩和郭家岭期花岗岩Au元素背景值明显高于伟德山期花岗岩和崂山期花岗岩。矿石硫与玲珑期花岗岩、郭家岭期花岗岩范围相近,特别是与玲珑期花岗岩大范围重叠,具有岩浆热液硫同位素变化小的特点,说明矿石硫主要源为玲珑期花岗岩、郭家岭期花岗岩。矿石铅主要为再活化的下地壳铅,即前寒武纪结晶基底铅,有幔源铅加入。金矿成矿年龄有162~146 Ma、133~120 Ma、120~115 Ma、112~105 Ma共4个区间范围,与胶东地区四期区域性花岗岩形成时间对应,成矿年龄一般晚于成岩年龄3~5 Ma。根据胶东金矿及多金属矿与岩浆热液事件对应关系,划分为玲珑金成矿期、郭家岭金成矿期、伟德山金及多金属成矿期和崂山多金属成矿期。胶东地区金矿主要是新太古代变质地层和古元古代底部片岩层位经过重熔作用金元素活化、迁移、富集和郭家岭期岩浆作用成矿。基于以上成矿作用认识,根据地球化学块体理论,对胶东金矿潜力进行了估算,胶东地区3000 m以浅金矿潜力约为1.8万t,同时对胶西北深部金矿进行了系统预测,预测3000 m以浅金资源量3997 t,5000 m以浅7497 t。通过地质综合研究,栖霞地区中新太古代变质岩下部有隐伏玲珑期花岗岩,根据金矿主要赋存在玲珑期花岗岩中的空间展布,S、Pb等同位素以及玲珑期花岗岩是金矿成矿直接围岩或母岩的认识,该地区变质岩中发育众多的石英脉型中小型金矿和矿(化)点,可能是浅部或顶部矿体的表现,认为该地区具有良好的成矿背景和潜力,是胶东地区今后金矿找矿的重要地区和方向。并建议在该地区部署地震和大功率激电剖面及地质科研钻探,查清一系列NE向断裂和地质结构,为金矿找矿提供科学依据。

坦桑尼亚恩泽加地区覆盖区选区评价及综合找矿方法研究

恩泽加(Nzega)绿岩带为坦桑尼亚环维多利亚湖八大绿岩带之一,为坦桑尼亚重要的产金区域之一。由于其地表覆盖程度较高,地质调查和勘查工作程度较低,虽然针对隐伏型金矿床尚具备一定的找矿潜力,但同时也面临选区评价和找矿困难的问题。研究表明:在选区评价中,针对太古界尼安萨群条带状铁建造的区域航磁异常解译和研究区地球化学金异常分析是最主要的;而在采用地物化综合找矿方法开展勘查工作中,磁法和激电法结合对于寻找覆盖区下的含铁建造内部或接触带附近或剪切带内的金矿床效果较好。该地区首次使用了取样钻施工采样,对覆盖层下发育的含金矿化蚀变带进行了地质工程揭露,取得了一定的找矿成果,先后发现了伊博罗格罗(Iborogo)、卢素(Lusu)和乔马(Choma)等多个金矿床(点)。

冀北崇礼-赤城地区逆冲推覆构造特征及地热勘探前景

【研究目的】本文对崇礼—赤城地区隆起山地型带状热储进行了总结,对类似勘探区的地热调查工作具有一定的借鉴作用,可为后续地热资源勘探提供新的依据。【研究方法】通过野外地质调查与详细构造填图,结合可控源音频大地电磁测深(CSAMT)探测结果,分析了崇礼-赤城地区的逆冲推覆构造特征与地热勘探前景。【研究结果】崇礼-赤城地区发育了多种样式的逆冲断层,逆冲断层主要表现为从北向南的逆冲运动方向,在主底板逆冲断层的作用下,太古界、中元古界、白垩系自老向新依次推覆,形成了具有典型逆冲推覆构造分带分层现象。CSAMT剖面测量与解释的初步结果,验证了崇礼-赤城地区发育的逆冲推覆构造,逆冲岩席中发育多条叠瓦式逆冲断层,其断层面向北倾斜,倾角大于60°,向深部汇聚于主底板逆冲断层。【结论】逆冲推覆构造之上发现的中元古界长城系白云岩、白云质大理岩,扩展了该地区地热勘探前景。

冀北上黄旗地区多金属矿成矿规律与矿产预测

冀北上黄旗地区位于华北地台北缘中段成矿带及兴安太行南段成矿带的相交区域,是华北地区著名的(银)多金属成矿区。本文在综合分析区域成矿地质背景、成矿地质条件、地球物理、地球化学、遥感异常特征及成矿规律的基础上,认为该区具有寻找侵入岩型和陆相火山岩型两大类多金属矿床的有利条件,划分出3条Ⅳ级成矿亚带,圈定成矿远景区10个。其中,A类4处,B类4处,C类2处;并优选出多金属矿找矿靶区7个,A类4个,B类2个,C类1个。

贵州普克金矿区黄铁矿和方解石地球化学特征及地质意义

贵州普克金矿区位于我国著名的滇-黔-桂“金三角”地区泥堡大型金矿西南方向的外围区域,与泥堡金矿处于相同的大地构造环境,地层特征、构造样式基本相同,成矿地质条件良好,对其开展成矿流体性质和物质来源研究,有助于理解普克矿区金的成矿作用,并为下一步找矿勘探提供新的参考。本文在对普克金矿区地表发育的(褐铁矿化)黄铁矿-方解石脉进行野外地质调查的基础上,开展矿物学、方解石稀土元素以及黄铁矿电子探针与微区原位LA-ICP-MS分析,结果显示普克金矿区内大部分方解石脉显示出与泥堡金矿床不含矿方解石脉相似的稀土元素配分特征,少数方解石样品显示出与黔西南卡林型金矿成矿期方解石稀土元素一样的中稀土元素富集和Eu正异常特征。该类方解石脉中的黄铁矿Au元素含量高出平均地壳丰度及沉积成因黄铁矿中Au的含量几个数量级,且Au在黄铁矿中以Au+离子形式存在,表明这些黄铁矿形成于金成矿期的热液环境。含金方解石出现中稀土元素富集模式和Eu正异常特征,表明金成矿流体系还原性质。由于地壳抬升剥蚀的影响,普克金矿区内中稀土元素富集、Eu正异常的方解石脉在地表的露头较少,也可能与普克金矿有利成矿地层层位(二叠系峨眉山玄武岩组)埋深较大、能运移到现今地表层位(三叠系永宁镇组)的成矿热液相对较少有关,指示深部有较好的金成矿潜力。

基于模型驱动和自动演进理论的矿集区找矿预测数据模型应用软件开发

本文旨在构建一个系统而全面支持矿集区找矿预测数据模型应用的软件体系架构。采用模型驱动和自动演进的软件研发理论,服务和支持矿集区找矿预测数据模型应用。研发工作主要集中在3类核心应用软件的研发:数据模型管理类软件、数据模型使用类软件和数据质量控制类软件,推出这些软件将有效地管理数据模型,提高矿集区找矿效率,并确保数据质量可靠性和准确性。提出了一个包含9个层次且完备的支持软件体系架构,全面覆盖数据模型从需求、设计到实际应用和用户层面各个环节。通过构建和研发支持矿集区找矿预测数据模型应用的软件体系架构及一套核心应用软件,成功为矿集区找矿预测提供了有效信息技术支持。这项工作不仅提高了找矿预测理论方法研究层次,还显著提升了软件技术应用水平,并可推广使用,具有重要的找矿指导意义。

伊犁盆地南缘阔斯加尔地区砂岩型铀矿勘查历程与找矿启示

阔斯加尔地区是近年来在乌库尔其铀矿床往东探索扩大而新发现的砂岩型铀成矿地段。文章通过对阔斯加尔地区不同勘查阶段工作部署以及找矿思路的梳理,结合矿体地质特征,归纳总结铀矿体发现的经验和启示。阔斯加尔地区于20世纪50年代开始勘查工作,前期探索查证为后期的铀矿勘查工作提供了线索和依据。2008年开始带钻查证工作,通过资料梳理,重新预测了铀成矿潜力地区,落实了铀矿产地;2012-2013年进入瓶颈期,经历综合研究和系列基础图件编制,细化了控矿因素,预测了成矿有利地段;2016-2020年为突破期,矿体规模持续扩大,连续揭露到多个较富大的矿体,平米铀量持续提升,资源量规模达中型。阔斯加尔地区是伊犁盆地南缘“乌库尔其-蒙其古尔中部矿集区”的重要组成部分,西接乌库尔其矿床,南邻扎吉斯坦矿床,是伊犁盆地南缘“外围找矿,就矿找矿”的重要地区。中侏罗统西山窑组上段铀矿体为区内主要矿体,其规模较大,资源占比高。通过对已知矿床外围进行不断的探索和查证,搜集整理老资料、开展综合研究与编图等重要的经验和启示,可以作为寻找类似铀成矿地区的借鉴。