The development of Ivorian public debt in recent years has raised concerns.Is its current level capable of boosting the economy or,on the contrary,being at the source of a recession?This paper analyzes the effect of t...The development of Ivorian public debt in recent years has raised concerns.Is its current level capable of boosting the economy or,on the contrary,being at the source of a recession?This paper analyzes the effect of the level of indebtedness on economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire using the Threshold Autoregressive(TAR)model over the period 1970-2018.The results obtained in the short run shed light on the no relationship between public debt and economic growth.In the long run,on the other hand,there is a bi-directional granger causality between public debt and the sustainability of economic growth.The non-linearity between the variables of interest has been studied and the results show the presence of a threshold effect:beyond 48.03 percent of GDP,any increase in public debt by 1%should reduce economic growth by 0.28%.Thus,the study questions the relevance of the criterion set by the WAEMU:public debt<70%of GDP.展开更多
Can public debt, inflation and unemployment tell us something about optimal or not optimal currency areas? In this paper, I compare the behavior of these variables in two countries, Mexico and the United States of Ame...Can public debt, inflation and unemployment tell us something about optimal or not optimal currency areas? In this paper, I compare the behavior of these variables in two countries, Mexico and the United States of America (USA), along with the member countries of the Euro Zone (European Monetary Union, or EMU). The main purpose is to know the divergence between public debt, average inflation ﹣0% in the graphs—in the main cities or regions of the first two, and compare them with the countries of the EMU. The period of 2001-2012 is chosen to be the years in which the Euro has been circulating among member countries of the Monetary Union (EMU). We find significant differences that allow us to determine the faults that the criteria of divergence on these variables had on the founding treaty of the European Monetary Union.展开更多
In measuring the present scale of China’s public debt, two different types of indexes, stock index and flow index, should be employed separately. The scale of public debt in China, developing from zero in 1979 to wha...In measuring the present scale of China’s public debt, two different types of indexes, stock index and flow index, should be employed separately. The scale of public debt in China, developing from zero in 1979 to what it is today in a short period of a little over 20 years, results from the compound effects of factors such as institutional reform, tax "default", non-standardized government revenue, borrowing new debts to repay old ones, and an expansionary fiscal policy. Under the background of China’s current situation, to prevent the latent risk of public debt, we must focus on diminishing the comparatively high debt dependence degree with mutual effects of multiple factors.展开更多
This review article surveys new studies of China＇s economy in the early twentieth century that have been published in both China and the West. It analyses the nuances that we find in these recently published studies ...This review article surveys new studies of China＇s economy in the early twentieth century that have been published in both China and the West. It analyses the nuances that we find in these recently published studies and how those might improve our conventional understanding of the era, with particular emphasis on the link between fiscal revenue and stock-exchanges. First, a detailed introduction treats the evolution, beginning in the nineteenth century, of Shanghai＇s segmented stock exchanges in the context of wider global currents. Section two reprises the still common notion that heavy domestic borrowing by the Nationalist （Kuornintang, or GMD） government in the 1920s-1930s forestalled industrialization. Section three discusses at length the degree to which Chinese banks in that period may be seen as merely a GMD conduit of borrowing. Chinese banks were probably more conducive to Shanghai＇s industrialization than is usually acknowledged, and they also played a key role in stabilizing China＇s monetary environment well beyond their perceived focus on managing public debt. But more evidence needs to come to light, and this article sets out the areas in which future research might advance our knowledge. The conclusion will underscore how the various findings of scholars might, as a whole, remould current conceptions.展开更多
In both academic research and policymaking,public sector debt and debt-to-GDP ratios are relied on for a multitude of important economic,political and socioeconomic decisions,especially as public sector balance sheets...In both academic research and policymaking,public sector debt and debt-to-GDP ratios are relied on for a multitude of important economic,political and socioeconomic decisions,especially as public sector balance sheets expand to an unprecedented size in the midst of the 2019–2020 COVID pandemic.The reliance on available data from reputable sources often overlooks the question of whether the denominator in this ratio is accurately measured or how well the denominator is understood by the audience interpreting it.Building on past work in international financial statistics,and making use of a unique and newly created dataset on media reporting of public sector debt,the purpose of this article is to examine the quality,accuracy,interpretation and overall meaningfulness of public sector financial statistics.The main findings suggest that i)most of the world’s governments still do not seem to feel sufficient pressure to voluntarily provide comprehensive financial statistics based on well-defined modern methodological frameworks and ii)high profile financial statistics,which are reported,have become increasingly numerous and complicated,making it difficult for non-experts to know which is most appropriate in the context of their analysis.展开更多
Debt-to-GDP measures in major OECD countries are at historical highs and a considerable part of sovereign debt needs to be refinanced soon,while projections of real GDP growth are fairly weak and uncertain and assesse...Debt-to-GDP measures in major OECD countries are at historical highs and a considerable part of sovereign debt needs to be refinanced soon,while projections of real GDP growth are fairly weak and uncertain and assessed sovereign credit quality has declined.Against this,the OECD Committee on Financial Markets discussed proposals for sovereign debt managers to consider issuing GDP-linked sovereign bonds.The Committee considered proposals timely and the idea conceptually attractive,as additional insurance against economic downturns over the medium term would be available.It identified however also a number of issues that would complicate issuance in practise.Questions arise in particular as regards investor demand for such instruments and how an additional novelty,liquidity and indexation premium would compare to a potentially reduced default premium on more traditional debt.Debt management offices confirm and stress such practical difficulties and remain sceptical,quoting a lack of sustainable demand for such bonds.As a result,issuance of such bonds would be too costly.It is not clear however whether debt management offices take into account the full macroeconomic and financial stability risk-return trade-off that a broader perspective would take into account.Proposals for issuance of sovereign GDP-linked bonds among advanced economies,which had received increased attention after the German G20-presidency included the topic in the G20 finance track,may have lost some momentum,but there continues to be considerable support from both academics and some practitioners.展开更多
This study questions the importance of public debt in stable growth between 1980 and 2018,specifically,the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis and Keynesian view are questioned.This study used data obtained from the Nort...This study questions the importance of public debt in stable growth between 1980 and 2018,specifically,the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis and Keynesian view are questioned.This study used data obtained from the Northern Cyprus State Planning Office.A restricted vector autoregressive model is used to test the causal relationships between this model and public debt,government expenditure,total capital,consumption,investment,employment,net exports,exchange rate,and gross domestic product growth rate.To ensure financial stability,the variables that trigger economic growth through increased interactions were evaluated.Accordingly,unlike other studies,the Wald test results reveal that public debt does not have a direct effect on the gross national product but indirectly affects total capital,consumption,investment,and public expenditure,all of which influence real gross domestic product(RGDP).It has been observed that employment affects RGDP,consumption,government spending,and investment.There is also bidirectional causality between consumption,government spending,and RGDP.The estimates of the Ricardian equivalent hypothesis are important.However,today’s changing economic policies,declining real incomes,and consumer behavior in the face of ever-increasing inflation require that the theory be redesigned.Therefore,contrary to theoretical predictions,consumers are concerned about maintaining their standard of living rather than directing tax deductions to savings.Contrary to the claims of Keynesian researchers,no causal relationship is observed between public debt and growth in this study.However,public debt directly affects total capital,consumption,government spending,and investment,which are important for sustainable economic policy.展开更多
文摘The development of Ivorian public debt in recent years has raised concerns.Is its current level capable of boosting the economy or,on the contrary,being at the source of a recession?This paper analyzes the effect of the level of indebtedness on economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire using the Threshold Autoregressive(TAR)model over the period 1970-2018.The results obtained in the short run shed light on the no relationship between public debt and economic growth.In the long run,on the other hand,there is a bi-directional granger causality between public debt and the sustainability of economic growth.The non-linearity between the variables of interest has been studied and the results show the presence of a threshold effect:beyond 48.03 percent of GDP,any increase in public debt by 1%should reduce economic growth by 0.28%.Thus,the study questions the relevance of the criterion set by the WAEMU:public debt<70%of GDP.
文摘Can public debt, inflation and unemployment tell us something about optimal or not optimal currency areas? In this paper, I compare the behavior of these variables in two countries, Mexico and the United States of America (USA), along with the member countries of the Euro Zone (European Monetary Union, or EMU). The main purpose is to know the divergence between public debt, average inflation ﹣0% in the graphs—in the main cities or regions of the first two, and compare them with the countries of the EMU. The period of 2001-2012 is chosen to be the years in which the Euro has been circulating among member countries of the Monetary Union (EMU). We find significant differences that allow us to determine the faults that the criteria of divergence on these variables had on the founding treaty of the European Monetary Union.
文摘In measuring the present scale of China’s public debt, two different types of indexes, stock index and flow index, should be employed separately. The scale of public debt in China, developing from zero in 1979 to what it is today in a short period of a little over 20 years, results from the compound effects of factors such as institutional reform, tax "default", non-standardized government revenue, borrowing new debts to repay old ones, and an expansionary fiscal policy. Under the background of China’s current situation, to prevent the latent risk of public debt, we must focus on diminishing the comparatively high debt dependence degree with mutual effects of multiple factors.
文摘This review article surveys new studies of China＇s economy in the early twentieth century that have been published in both China and the West. It analyses the nuances that we find in these recently published studies and how those might improve our conventional understanding of the era, with particular emphasis on the link between fiscal revenue and stock-exchanges. First, a detailed introduction treats the evolution, beginning in the nineteenth century, of Shanghai＇s segmented stock exchanges in the context of wider global currents. Section two reprises the still common notion that heavy domestic borrowing by the Nationalist （Kuornintang, or GMD） government in the 1920s-1930s forestalled industrialization. Section three discusses at length the degree to which Chinese banks in that period may be seen as merely a GMD conduit of borrowing. Chinese banks were probably more conducive to Shanghai＇s industrialization than is usually acknowledged, and they also played a key role in stabilizing China＇s monetary environment well beyond their perceived focus on managing public debt. But more evidence needs to come to light, and this article sets out the areas in which future research might advance our knowledge. The conclusion will underscore how the various findings of scholars might, as a whole, remould current conceptions.
文摘In both academic research and policymaking,public sector debt and debt-to-GDP ratios are relied on for a multitude of important economic,political and socioeconomic decisions,especially as public sector balance sheets expand to an unprecedented size in the midst of the 2019–2020 COVID pandemic.The reliance on available data from reputable sources often overlooks the question of whether the denominator in this ratio is accurately measured or how well the denominator is understood by the audience interpreting it.Building on past work in international financial statistics,and making use of a unique and newly created dataset on media reporting of public sector debt,the purpose of this article is to examine the quality,accuracy,interpretation and overall meaningfulness of public sector financial statistics.The main findings suggest that i)most of the world’s governments still do not seem to feel sufficient pressure to voluntarily provide comprehensive financial statistics based on well-defined modern methodological frameworks and ii)high profile financial statistics,which are reported,have become increasingly numerous and complicated,making it difficult for non-experts to know which is most appropriate in the context of their analysis.
文摘Debt-to-GDP measures in major OECD countries are at historical highs and a considerable part of sovereign debt needs to be refinanced soon,while projections of real GDP growth are fairly weak and uncertain and assessed sovereign credit quality has declined.Against this,the OECD Committee on Financial Markets discussed proposals for sovereign debt managers to consider issuing GDP-linked sovereign bonds.The Committee considered proposals timely and the idea conceptually attractive,as additional insurance against economic downturns over the medium term would be available.It identified however also a number of issues that would complicate issuance in practise.Questions arise in particular as regards investor demand for such instruments and how an additional novelty,liquidity and indexation premium would compare to a potentially reduced default premium on more traditional debt.Debt management offices confirm and stress such practical difficulties and remain sceptical,quoting a lack of sustainable demand for such bonds.As a result,issuance of such bonds would be too costly.It is not clear however whether debt management offices take into account the full macroeconomic and financial stability risk-return trade-off that a broader perspective would take into account.Proposals for issuance of sovereign GDP-linked bonds among advanced economies,which had received increased attention after the German G20-presidency included the topic in the G20 finance track,may have lost some momentum,but there continues to be considerable support from both academics and some practitioners.
文摘This study questions the importance of public debt in stable growth between 1980 and 2018,specifically,the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis and Keynesian view are questioned.This study used data obtained from the Northern Cyprus State Planning Office.A restricted vector autoregressive model is used to test the causal relationships between this model and public debt,government expenditure,total capital,consumption,investment,employment,net exports,exchange rate,and gross domestic product growth rate.To ensure financial stability,the variables that trigger economic growth through increased interactions were evaluated.Accordingly,unlike other studies,the Wald test results reveal that public debt does not have a direct effect on the gross national product but indirectly affects total capital,consumption,investment,and public expenditure,all of which influence real gross domestic product(RGDP).It has been observed that employment affects RGDP,consumption,government spending,and investment.There is also bidirectional causality between consumption,government spending,and RGDP.The estimates of the Ricardian equivalent hypothesis are important.However,today’s changing economic policies,declining real incomes,and consumer behavior in the face of ever-increasing inflation require that the theory be redesigned.Therefore,contrary to theoretical predictions,consumers are concerned about maintaining their standard of living rather than directing tax deductions to savings.Contrary to the claims of Keynesian researchers,no causal relationship is observed between public debt and growth in this study.However,public debt directly affects total capital,consumption,government spending,and investment,which are important for sustainable economic policy.
