The COVID-19 pandemic has seen multiple waves,in part due to the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures by the public health authorities around the world,and also caused by the emergence of new va...The COVID-19 pandemic has seen multiple waves,in part due to the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures by the public health authorities around the world,and also caused by the emergence of new variants of concern(VOCs)of the SARS-Cov-2 virus.As the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to transition into an endemic state,how to manage outbreaks caused by newly emerging VOCs has become one of the primary public health issues.Using mathematical modeling tools,we investigated the dynamics of VOCs,both in a general theoretical framework and based on observations from public health data of past COVID-19 waves,with the objective of understanding key factors that determine the dominance and coexistence of VOCs.Our results show that the transmissibility advantage of a new VOC is a main factor for it to become dominant.Additionally,our modeling study indicates that the initial number of people infected with the new VOC plays an important role in determining the size of the epidemic.Our results also support the evidence that public health measures targeting the newly emerging VOC taken in the early phase of its spread can limit the size of the epidemic caused by the new VOC(Wu et al.,2139Wu,Scarabel,Majeed,Bragazzi,&Orbinski,Wu et al.,2021).展开更多
In the past five months,success in control the national epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has been witnessed in China.The implementation of public health measures accounts for the success which include dif...In the past five months,success in control the national epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has been witnessed in China.The implementation of public health measures accounts for the success which include different interventions in the early or later stages of the outbreak.It is clear that although not all measures were universally effective worldwide,their achievements have been significant.More solidarity is needed to deal with this global pandemic with more learning and understanding.Understanding which of the public health interventions implemented in China were effective may provide ideas for international epidemic control.展开更多
基金funded in part by NSERC Alliance COVID-19 grant(ALLRP 555037-20)NSERC Discovery grant(RGPIN-2020-04134 Li)the CIHR funded Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Task Force,and the NSERC-PHAC EIDM Network“Mathematics for Public Health(MfPH)”.
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic has seen multiple waves,in part due to the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures by the public health authorities around the world,and also caused by the emergence of new variants of concern(VOCs)of the SARS-Cov-2 virus.As the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to transition into an endemic state,how to manage outbreaks caused by newly emerging VOCs has become one of the primary public health issues.Using mathematical modeling tools,we investigated the dynamics of VOCs,both in a general theoretical framework and based on observations from public health data of past COVID-19 waves,with the objective of understanding key factors that determine the dominance and coexistence of VOCs.Our results show that the transmissibility advantage of a new VOC is a main factor for it to become dominant.Additionally,our modeling study indicates that the initial number of people infected with the new VOC plays an important role in determining the size of the epidemic.Our results also support the evidence that public health measures targeting the newly emerging VOC taken in the early phase of its spread can limit the size of the epidemic caused by the new VOC(Wu et al.,2139Wu,Scarabel,Majeed,Bragazzi,&Orbinski,Wu et al.,2021).
文摘In the past five months,success in control the national epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has been witnessed in China.The implementation of public health measures accounts for the success which include different interventions in the early or later stages of the outbreak.It is clear that although not all measures were universally effective worldwide,their achievements have been significant.More solidarity is needed to deal with this global pandemic with more learning and understanding.Understanding which of the public health interventions implemented in China were effective may provide ideas for international epidemic control.
