Present-day movement characteristics of the Qinghai Nanshan fault and its surrounding area from GPS observation

The Qinghai Nanshan fault is a larger fault in the Northeastern Xizang Plateau.In previous studies,its movement characteristics are mainly investigated with geological and seismic observations,and the tectonic transformation role of the fault on its east is not yet clear.This study uses data fusion to obtain denser GPS observations near the Qinghai Nanshan fault.Based on tectonic characteristics,we establish a block model to investigate the fault slip rate,locking degree,and slip deficit.The results show that the Qinghai Nanshan fault slip rate is characterized by sinistral and convergent movement.Both the sinistral and convergent rates display a decreasing trend from west to east.The locking degree and slip deficit are higher in the western segment(with an average of about 0.74 and 1.1 mm/a)and lower in the eastern segment.Then,we construct a strain rate field using GPS observations to analyze the regional strain characteristics.The results indicate that along the fault,the western segment shows a larger shear strain rate and negative dilation rate.Regional earthquake records show that the frequency of earthquakes is lower near the fault.The joint results suggest that the western segment may have a higher earthquake risk.In addition,the insignificant fault slip rate in the eastern segment may indicate that it does not participate in the tectonic transformation among the Riyueshan,Lajishan,and West Qinling faults.

Quantification of the concrete freeze–thaw environment across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on machine learning algorithms

The reasonable quantification of the concrete freezing environment on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP) is the primary issue in frost resistant concrete design, which is one of the challenges that the QTP engineering managers should take into account. In this paper, we propose a more realistic method to calculate the number of concrete freeze–thaw cycles(NFTCs) on the QTP. The calculated results show that the NFTCs increase as the altitude of the meteorological station increases with the average NFTCs being 208.7. Four machine learning methods, i.e., the random forest(RF) model, generalized boosting method(GBM), generalized linear model(GLM), and generalized additive model(GAM), are used to fit the NFTCs. The root mean square error(RMSE) values of the RF, GBM, GLM, and GAM are 32.3, 4.3, 247.9, and 161.3, respectively. The R^(2) values of the RF, GBM, GLM, and GAM are 0.93, 0.99, 0.48, and 0.66, respectively. The GBM method performs the best compared to the other three methods, which was shown by the results of RMSE and R^(2) values. The quantitative results from the GBM method indicate that the lowest, medium, and highest NFTC values are distributed in the northern, central, and southern parts of the QTP, respectively. The annual NFTCs in the QTP region are mainly concentrated at 160 and above, and the average NFTCs is 200 across the QTP. Our results can provide scientific guidance and a theoretical basis for the freezing resistance design of concrete in various projects on the QTP.

Origin of the Dashuigou independent tellurium deposit at Qinghai–Xizang Plateau: constraints from the light stable isotopes C, O, and H

By studying the light isotopic compositions of carbon,oxygen,and hydrogen,combined with previous research results on the ore-forming source of the deposit,the authors try to uncover its metallogenic origin.The δ^(18)O and δ^(13)C isotope signatures of dolomite samples vary between 10.2 and 13.0‰,and between−7.2 and−5.2‰,respectively,implying that the carbon derives from the upper mantle.δD and δ^(18) O of quartz,biotite,and muscovite from diff erent ore veins of the deposit vary between−82 and−59‰,and between 11.6 and 12.4‰,respectively,implying that the metallogenic solutions are mainly magmatic.According to the relevant research results of many isotope geologists,the fractionation degree of hydrogen isotopes increases as the depth to the Earth’s core increases,and the more diff erentiated the hydrogen isotopes are,the lower their values will be.In other words,mantle-derived solutions can have extremely low hydrogen isotope values.This means that the δD‰ value−134 of the pyrrhotite sample numbered SD-34 in this article may indicate mantle-derived oreforming fl uid of the deposit.The formation of the Dashuigou tellurium deposit occurred between 91.71 and 80.19 Ma.

Differential response of radial growth and δ^(13)C in Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia) to climate change on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China

Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the environ-ment.To elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern China in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13)C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic factors.Tree-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the southern.Tree-ring δ^(13)C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13)C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing season.Stomatal conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate did.The response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate warmed.Changes in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of P.crassifolia in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.

Response of Freezing/Thawing Indexes to the Wetting Trend under Warming Climate Conditions over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2010:A Numerical Simulation

Since the 1990s,the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau(QTP)has experienced a strikingly warming and wetter climate that alters the thermal and hydrological properties of frozen ground.A positive correlation between the warming and thermal degradation in permafrost or seasonally frozen ground(SFG)has long been recognized.Still,a predictive relationship between historical wetting under warming climate conditions and frozen ground has not yet been well demonstrated,despite the expectation that it will become even more important because precipitation over the QTP has been projected to increase continuously in the near future.This study investigates the response of the thermal regime to historical wetting in both permafrost and SFG areas and examines their relationships separately using the Community Land Surface Model version 4.5.Results show that wetting before the 1990s across the QTP mainly cooled the permafrost body in the arid and semiarid zones,with significant correlation coefficients of 0.60 and 0.48,respectively.Precipitation increased continually at the rate of 6.16 mm decade–1 in the arid zone after the 1990s but had a contrasting warming effect on permafrost through a significant shortening of the thawing duration within the active layer.However,diminished rainfall in the humid zone after the 1990s also significantly extended the thawing duration of SFG.The relationship between the ground thawing index and precipitation was significantly negatively correlated(−0.75).The dual effects of wetting on the thermal dynamics of the QTP are becoming critical because of the projected increases in future precipitation.

Analysis of Outdoor Cultivation of Pepino(Solanum muricatum)in Qinghai Province

[Objectives]This study was conducted to explore the feasibility of planting pepino(Solanum muricatum Ait.)in Qinghai Province,and to understand the cultivation quality and yield in various areas of Qinghai.[Methods]With small fruit type of pepino as the material,four areas in eastern Qinghai were selected to determine the agronomic traits,yield and quality indexes of pepino.[Results]Under the same cultivation conditions,there were some differences in the cultivation status of pepino,but overall,pepino fruit had higher quality.Various physiological indexes were correlated with quality and yield.[Conclusions]This study clarified the specific cultivation situation of pepino in Qinghai Province,and evaluated the quality and yield of pepino,providing strong data support for the promotion and planting of pepino in various regions in the future.

Analysis on the Spatial Agglomeration and Coupling of Socioeconomic Factors in Qinghai Tourism Under the Background of“Belt and Road”

Qinghai is the strategic base and important fulcrum of the Belt and Road Initiative while tourism is a strategic pillar industry in Qinghai Province.Due to its rich tourism resources and unique ecological environment,the integration of tourism in Qinghai into the Belt and Road has attracted great attention of the Asian Development Bank(ADB).With the spatial data of tourism elements POI and the statistical data of 44 counties in Qinghai to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of the spatial agglomeration of tourism in Qinghai,the paper conducts research on spatial coupling and concludes with the following results:The spatial agglomeration of tourism in Qinghai presents the distribution pattern of“one circle and one belt”;economic density and population density play an important role in the formation of the spatial agglomeration pattern of tourism with some spatial spillovers;Belt and Road has a significant impact on the promotion of tourism agglomeration in Qinghai.The paper suggests that tourism in Qinghai should fully integrate into the Belt and Road,giving full play to the guiding role of Belt and Road in the allocation of social and economic resources,and optimizing the spatial layout.

2023年12月18日甘肃积石山M_(S)6.2地震触发次生灾害快速评估

2023年12月18日甘肃积石山县发生M_(S)6.2地震,该次地震触发官亭盆地中川乡金田泥流灾害,造成严重的破坏和人员伤亡。通过震前、震后的高分辨率卫星影像对比分析,初步判断此次地震没有引发大型同震滑坡与密集砂土液化,但是震前震中区发育的大量大型黄土滑坡和密集液化砂脉是由更老的地震事件触发。金田泥流灾害是物源区高含水量黏性土在强震动条件下沿沟谷发生流动所致,其发生可能与人类的耕作方式(引黄灌区震前冬季灌溉导致浅表土层含水量提高)有关。

两次不同生命史东移高原涡的动力结构与成因分析

利用NCEP再分析资料对2008年6月25-27日和2013年6月4-10日两次东移出高原的高原涡过程进行结构特征和演变机制的诊断分析,探讨两次长、短路径高原涡过程的结构特征和造成不同生命史的影响因子。结果表明:(1)路径短的扎多涡活动过程中,南亚高压呈扁平状,高空急流偏南,高原涡处在下滑槽中移出高原;路径长的曲麻莱涡活动过程中,南亚高压有些北拱,高原涡处在南亚高压脊前西北气流下空,副高偏南,高原涡随低槽东移加强,并伴有西南涡东移。(2)两次高原涡过程结构特征差异明显,主要表现在扎多涡在高原上增强时、曲麻莱涡与西南涡耦合及之后再度加强时的结构特征,前者低涡处在600~350 hPa较深厚的正涡度、上升运动层内,还具有对流层高层强辐散的结构特征;后者具有对流层高、中、低层正涡度贯通、对流层内为上升运动、对流层低层辐合,对流层高层弱辐散的结构特征,其中对流层低层由整个对流层内为最强正涡度,演变为整个对流层内为最强正涡度、最强上升运动、最强辐合。(3)总涡度收支诊断表明,散度项变化对低涡总涡度变率变化起决定性作用。扎多涡的强度变化与散度项变化一致。曲麻莱涡在与西南涡伴行过程中,垂直输送项、水平平流项的影响在加强。(4)涡中心区500 hPa正涡度变率的收支分析看出,高原涡在没有西南涡活动时,对高原涡的500 hPa正涡度变率贡献的主要是涡度辐合造成的;在有西南涡活动时,随着与西南涡垂直方向叠合、伴行,正涡度垂直输送显得更加重要。

青藏高原东坡地形对影响云南降水的高原涡的作用机理

利用常规观测资料、FNL分析资料及经质控后的自动站小时降水数据,诊断分析了青藏高原东坡地形在2017年7月2-3日高原涡影响云南降水过程中的作用,并利用数值模式WRFv4.0对此次过程进行了地形敏感性试验。结果表明:高原涡是此次云南强降水的重要影响系统;低涡中心及附近区域中高层维持暖心结构,并呈现显著的上升、下沉运动交替的分布;过程累积雨量分布表现为两条明显的与山脉走向平行的西北-东南向雨带,且具有强弱交错的分布特征,强降水集中出现在午后至傍晚及前半夜两个时段内,中心均位于地形边坡,并随着低涡向下游传播;南亚高压、西北辐散气流、西太平洋副热带高压及滇缅高压为低涡的东移发展提供了有利的高空环流场,500 hPa正涡度及700 hPa水汽通量辐合中心对强降水落区具有较好指示意义;低涡降水期间存在β中尺度重力波,波动由青藏高原东坡地形激发,沿着300~200 hPa的气层传播,高空的非地转平衡运动及垂直风切变为重力波的发展及传播提供了有利条件,重力波先于低涡及降水向下游方向移动及发展,波脊处对应上升运动及辐散中心,波槽处对应下沉运动及辐合中心,强降水及波脊均位于低涡西南侧强辐合上升运动区;地形高度降低后,其机械阻挡抬升作用减弱,重力波和高原低涡消失,雨带强度及空间分布特征发生显著改变。高原东坡地形对高原涡的形成和发展,以及高原涡影响下的云南降水具有重要作用。

Contribution of external forcing to summer precipitation trends over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Southwest China

在过去的60年中,全球气候经历了快速变暖和短暂的变暖停滞,而中国的区域降水也经历了多样而复杂的变化.本文分析了1961年至2014年外强迫因子对青藏高原和中国西南地区夏季降水趋势的影响.观测数据显示,青藏高原的夏季降水呈增加趋势,而中国西南地区的夏季降水呈减少趋势,这两个相邻地区的夏季降水变化趋势相反.利用CMIP6数据,本文研究了不同外强迫因子对两个区域夏季降水趋势的影响.结果表明,温室气体对青藏高原夏季降水的增加具有显著影响,而气溶胶在中国西南地区夏季降水减少中起主要作用。

2023年甘肃积石山6.2级地震发震构造浅析

2023年12月18日23时59分,甘肃临夏州积石山县发生6.2级地震,造成人员伤亡和财产损失。本次地震发生在青藏高原东北缘地区,受青藏高原向NE向扩展挤压作用的影响,区域发育两组较为典型的断裂构造:NWW向大型左旋走滑断裂带是活动块体运动边界,另一组NNW向右旋走滑断裂则发育在块体内部构成次级块体边界。此次积石山6.2级地震就发生在NWW向西秦岭北缘左旋走滑断裂带和NNW向日月山右旋走滑断裂带之间的大型挤压阶区内,初步判定其发震构造为以逆冲作用为主的拉脊山断裂带东南段的积石山东缘断裂。余震展布范围严格限制在黄河以南的积石山东麓大河家第三系盆地内,根据黄河以北拉脊山和以南的积石山山脊线及坡折带存在较大不连续性,且沿黄河南岸发育较明显的断层三角面等构造地貌特征,推测沿黄河发育有一条调节区内挤压变形差异的横向断裂。断裂切断拉脊山北缘断裂带东南段,使积石山东缘断裂成为一个长度不足40 km的独立活动段,判定原震区近期发生更大地震的可能性不大。

与碱性岩-碳酸岩杂岩共生的铌-稀土成矿作用——兼论东昆仑大格勒铌-稀土矿床中的碱性岩-碳酸岩杂岩成因

铌(Nb)和稀土(REE)分别是我国重要的紧缺、优势战略矿产资源,其中Nb对外依存度接近100%。Nb和REE矿床在全世界(包括中国)都有分布,这类矿床中的矿石矿物种类繁多,但目前工业提取REE的矿石矿物主要为富轻稀土的氟碳铈矿、独居石,富重稀土、钇的磷钇矿,风化壳淋积型黏土矿等,而工业提取Nb元素的矿石矿物主要为烧绿石和铌铁矿等。与碱性岩-碳酸岩杂岩有关的Nb、REE矿床等是铌与稀土(尤其是轻稀土)资源最重要的来源。自然界中的Nb矿床分布较广,但绝大部分Nb资源集中在全球约十多个大型矿床中,且主要与碱性岩-碳酸岩及其相关的风化产物有关。碱性岩-碳酸岩杂岩主要来自地幔,且产出于一些特殊的构造背景(如裂谷或陆内伸展、碰撞后伸展、地幔柱、火山弧等),是研究深部地幔富集与熔融过程、物质(如碳)循环和深部动力学机制的重要“岩石探针”,是当前固体地球科学研究的前沿和热点领域之一。因此,研究碱性岩-碳酸岩杂岩的形成机制及相关的Nb-REE成矿作用,具有极其重要的地球动力学和关键金属成矿意义。在东昆仑新发现了与碱性岩-碳酸岩杂岩共生的大格勒Nb-REE矿,成矿岩石主要为碳酸岩、金云母岩和橄榄岩,包含多种含Nb、富REE和含P矿物,初步确定为碳酸岩型Nb-REE-P矿床。Nb矿体中最重要的含Nb矿石矿物是铌钙矿和铌铁矿,其Nb_(2)O_(5)含量最高分别达81.17%、76.06%~79.67%,粒径最大分别可达1.2 mm、~1 mm,粒径和赋存形式明显优于白云鄂博矿床(粒径<0.04mm)。初步的勘探工作圈定出5条铌矿体,Nb_(2)O_(5)平均品位0.092%~0.156%(最高1.28%),估算Nb_(2)O_(5)推断资源量超过10万吨,表明大格勒矿区Nb资源已经达到大型矿床规模。矿区杂岩体中镁铁质-超镁铁质岩和碳酸岩主要形成于早泥盆世早期(~418Ma),明显富集Nb、Ta、P和Sr等,具有相对稳定的ε_(Nd)(t)(-0.5~2.7)和变化的(^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr)i(0.7037~0.7063)。这些岩石主要起源于软流圈地幔,可能形成于碰撞后伸展背景中。但是大格勒矿区成岩与成矿的精确时代、岩浆来源与岩浆储库演化过程、岩石与矿床形成的深部动力学机制、金属超常富集与成矿作用、成矿元素的赋存状态与可利用性等还需要进一步深入研究。

从集体化到个体化:青海同仁六月会研究

仪式和社会的关系一直是人类学研究的主题,社会的变迁可以通过仪式呈现出来。在城镇化过程中,青海同仁地区的仪式也在发生变化,这种变化与社会变迁密切相关。本文从仪式起源、功能和活动的村落化来分析传统的集体运作逻辑,同时从仪式实践的家庭化、神与人关系的私密化以及村落共同体的弱化三方面讨论其个体运作逻辑。在城镇化背景下探讨宗教仪式实践的变迁,对于理解转型时期的民族地区社会特征具有现实意义,也进一步推进对人类学仪式理论中关于仪式如何反映社会内部不同部分关系的理解。

青藏高原陆陆碰撞-挤出活动构造体系控震作用:以1990年以来强震活动为例

青藏高原是地中海-喜马拉雅地震带上强震活动最频繁的区域之一,深入认识该区的活动构造体系控震效应对于区域强震危险性分析具有重要科学意义。从陆陆碰撞-挤出活动构造体系角度,对青藏高原自1990年以来的MW≥6.0强震活动及控震构造机制进行分析发现,青藏高原陆陆碰撞-挤出构造体系对区域强震活动起到显著控制作用,区域强震事件尤其是MW≥6.5地震主要出现在构造体系的主要边界断裂带上,并显示出相对有规律的时空迁移过程,而且青藏高原东部的多层次挤出-旋转活动构造体系构成了1990年以来强震过程的主要控震构造,其次是喜马拉雅主前缘逆冲断裂带。因此,青藏高原挤出构造体系应是未来强震活动趋势分析最值得关注的区域,尤其是当前最为活跃的巴颜喀拉次级挤出构造单元。对比分析土耳其安纳托利亚板块及周边的强震活动发现,该区具有类似的陆陆碰撞-挤出构造体系及控震效应,表明该构造体系是陆内造山中的一种典型的控震构造。进一步综合分析认为,活动构造体系控震效应的主要表现:一是构造体系中主要断块的边界断裂带通常是强震活动的主要场所;二是构造体系中不同构造带的强震活动常具有联动效应或相互触发关系,其中的复杂或特殊构造部位则是易出现双震或震群活动的场所;三是当构造体系中某个构造单元或构造带处于活跃阶段时,便会出现强震丛集现象。另外,充分认识构造体系中主要活动断层间的协调变形关系,活动断层带上的强震活动的分段破裂行为,以及活动断层上强震原地复发通常存在“周期长、准周期性和丛集性”的特点等,有助于在根据活动构造体系分析区域未来强震活动趋势时更为准确地判定活动断层带的未来强震危险性。

青藏高原生态资产空间差异及其价值化潜力

科学合理地开发生态资产、促进其价值转化,是发展生态经济、推动生态文明建设的重要举措,对于促进生态敏感地区人与自然和谐共生、保障高质量可持续发展具有现实意义。以青藏高原为研究区,基于土地利用类型及其质量,从资源实物和生态服务两个类别开展生态资产评估和空间分布研究,融合生态产品供给-需求理论评价生态资产价值化潜力,进而解析生态资产及其价值化潜力的空间匹配关系,提出促进生态资产价值化的科学建议。结果表明:青藏高原生态资产类型多样,空间集聚特征明显,生态资产综合指数热点区主要分布在中部的羌塘、青南和川西藏东等地区,冷点区则分布在南部的山地灌丛及周边地区;生态服务类资产指数与生态资产综合指数呈现类似的空间分布格局,资源实物类资产指数的格局随地形地貌和气候气象的不同而有所差异;生态资产价值化潜力受到区位交通、资源禀赋、经济社会发展条件等多重因素影响,川西藏东、青东祁连的东部边缘地带价值化潜力更高、热点区更为集聚。基于生态资产禀赋及其价值化潜力划分为高资产-高潜力、高资产-低潜力、低资产-高潜力、低资产-低潜力四种分区类型,针对性提出了加大生态保护力度、合理开发生态资源、完善交通和服务设施、差异化开发生态产品等政策建议。

环青海湖骑行游客情感动态性的特征与发生机制

运用混合研究方法,以环青海湖骑行为例,揭示骑行游客情感动态性的特征,并基于地方理论和景观感知理论构建“区位-场所-情感”三维分析框架,识别情感动态性的发生机制。研究发现:①强度方面,与消极情感相比,游客积极情感的可变性及不稳定性的数值更高、数值区间更大,表明积极情感强度的波动程度更明显,游客之间的波动程度的差异性也更大。②多样性方面,游客消极情感多样性的变化最为明显,消极情感体验在骑行出发时最复杂,积极情感体验则在旅途结束时最复杂。③骑行所经之地独特的区位特质为游客提供了跨地方的差异化体验,场所特质则提供了具体的地方展演和体验方式。两者共同作用,不断引发骑行游客产生积极、消极情感,发生强度及类型上的变化,并在时空变换下将冰冷的道路空间转换为蕴含着丰富多变的人类情感的特殊地方。

青藏高原形成演化动力机制及其远程效应

作为第三极的青藏高原的形成是新生代以来的地球节律构造事件中最典型、最显著的新构造运动的结果,其构造地貌特征及其重要性,内部单元组成,构造演化历程及动力机制,以及对周边盆地乃至整个中国大陆的影响及远程效应至今一直是学术关注的焦点。本文重新圈定了青藏高原构造地貌范围,确立了其在全球构造中的地位。青藏高原的远程效应向南北两侧延伸,北到北冰洋,南到太平洋,总体上围绕东经105°经线穿越了整个亚洲大陆,本文采用东经105°所在经线大圆作为划分东西半球的分界线,该线以东为东半球,以西为西半球。青藏高原处于全球最大、最重要的南北向构造和东西向构造的交汇处,其内部的帕米尔高原更是区域构造的中流砥柱。青藏高原起源于帕米尔高原,它是一个印支期的热穹窿,晚期转化出一条直径200 km的异常重力柱,垂直下沉至600 km,构成一个垂向上的挤压-伸展构造,完成于白垩纪。以它为中心向东西扩展,东边三条、西边一条水平方向挤压-伸展构造。喜山期它还遭受到岩体的侵入,白垩系基本上未变形。古近纪,印度陆块与亚洲陆块碰撞,形成先压后升的雄伟的喜马拉雅造山带。以它为中心向北扩展,第四纪3个地幔枝上升,导致整个青藏高原上升。青藏高原形成与演化的深部动力机制模型:早期表现为地质体在垂向上的离心运动和在水平上的伸展运动;后期是以挤压为主的阶段,表现为地质体在垂向上的向心运动和水平上的挤压运动。从驱动力的角度,早期以热能为主驱动力,后期以重力势能为主驱动力。青藏高原的隆升及其形成演化是欧亚陆块新生代最令人瞩目的地质事件,其直接影响到岩石圈浅部及地壳表层与人类生存发展息息相关的地形地貌、能源、资源、生态、环境和灾害等,产生了具有举足轻重的近区及远程效应。3个远程效应分别是贝加尔湖裂谷、汾渭裂谷以及东非三叉裂谷的形成。本文最后对印支运动的命名和穿时问题、印支运动起止时间和类型、青藏高原是研究各类造山带的最佳基地、喜马拉雅造山带东西构造结的确定和帕米尔高原四维动力学模型的探索等5个问题进行了简单讨论。

雅鲁藏布江断裂带东段现今地应力测量与断层活动性分析

为获取位于雅鲁藏布江断裂带东段加查县新建水电站工程场区的地应力状态,探讨雅鲁藏布江断裂带东段活动性,采用自主研发的新一代水压致裂地应力测试技术,实测获取了工程场区的地应力状态,并在收集雅鲁藏布江断裂带沿线地应力数据基础上,结合摩尔-库仑破裂准则,对其断层活动性进行了探讨。结果表明:(1)在工程厂区内122.75~418.75 m深度,实测最大水平主应力SH介于6.07~37.62MPa之间,最小水平主应力Sh介于3.13~20.33MPa之间,最大水平主应力优势方向为北北东向;(2)主应力关系总体表现为SH>Sh>Sv(Sv为垂向主应力),应力结构有利于逆断层的孕育和活动;(3)实测及收集的大部分数据应力莫尔圆与摩擦系数为0.6的破坏临界线相交,表明整体上雅鲁藏布江断裂带东段发生滑动失稳的风险较高,其中西侧贡嘎至朗县一带风险高于东侧林芝地区。

青藏高原东北部60多年来的气候暖湿化:来自德令哈水文气候的记录

柴达木盆地水文气候的变化影响该区生态文明建设及经济社会发展。研究采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall突变检验分析方法对德令哈60多年来的气象和水文数据进行分析。结果显示,德令哈的气温和降水均呈显著的上升趋势,1956—2022年升温速率为0.45℃/10 a,1956—2018年降水增加速率为26.6 mm/10 a。冬季气温升高最快,可达0.75℃/10 a;夏季降水增加最多,为17.1 mm/10 a。德令哈水文站的平均流量也呈显著增加趋势,1960—2020年增加速率为1.03 m^(3)/s/10 a;夏季增加速率最快,为2.89 m^(3)/s/10 a。平均流量主要受控于降水量,气温对其影响次之。Mann-Kendall检验显示平均流量在2009年发生突变。尽管1973—1980年的蒸发量处于高值,但1956—2003年的蒸发量变化总体呈下降趋势,平均风速很可能是影响蒸发量的主要因素。湿润指数(降水量/蒸发量)呈升高趋势,表明德令哈气候近60年来朝湿润化方向发展。托素湖、尕海、青海湖湖面上涨及柴达木盆地植被覆盖度增加进一步印证了青藏高原东北部气候的暖湿化特征。