Quantitative Simulation of Dynamic Changes in Cultivated Land in Areas of Reclamation and Returning Cultivated Land to Forest or Pastures under RCPs Climate Scenarios

Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.

Quantitative Simulation on Soil Moisture Contents of Two Typical Vegetation Communities in Sanjiang Plain,China

Different types of vegetation occupy different geomorphology and water gradient environments in the San- jiang Plain, indicating that the soil moisture dynamics and water balance patterns of the different vegetation communi- ties might differ from each other. In this paper, a lowland system, perpendicular to the Nongjiang River in the Honghe National Nature Reserve （HNNR）, was selected as the study area. The area was occupied by the non-wetland plant forest and the typical wetland plant meadow. The Microsoft Windows-based finite element analysis software package for simulating water, heat, and solute transport in variably saturated porous media （HYDRUS）, which can quantita- tively simulate water, heat, and/or solute movement in variably-saturated porous media, was used to simulate soil moisture dynamics in the root zone （20-40 cm） of those two plant communities during the growing season in 2005. The simulation results for soil moisture were in a good agreement with measured data, with the coefficient of determi- nation （R2） of 0.44-0.69 and root mean square error （RMSE） ranging between 0.0291 cm3/cm3 and 0.0457 cm3/cm3, and index of agreement （d） being from I）.612 to 0.968. During the study period, the volumetric soil moisture content of meadow increased with the depth and its coefficient of variation decreased with the depth （from 20 cm to 40 cm）, while under the forest the soil moisture content at different depths varied irregularly. The calculated result of water budget showed that the water budget deficit of the meadow was higher than that of the forest, suggesting that the meadow is more likely to suffer from water stress than the forest. The quantitative simulation by HYDRUS in this study did not take surface runoff and plant growth processes into account. Improved root water uptake and surface runoff models will be needed for higher accuracy in further researches.

Quantitative simulation and verification of upgrade law of sustainable development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

The natural formation and development of urban agglomerations is a process in which core cities continue to unite their neighboring cities to enhance sustainability for their own sustainable development.The upgrade mechanism of sustainable development urban agglomeration is a nonlinear composite upgrade curve that is a function of time,increasing with the number of cities.In this paper,the sustainable upgrade function curve,upgrade rate,and upgrade speed of urban agglomerations were solved using a geometrical derivation,and the index system for measuring the upgrade capability of sustainable development of urban agglomerations was established.The dynamic change in economic sustainable upgrade capability,social sustainable upgrade capability,environmental sustainable upgrade capability,and comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of a Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015 was measured by technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution and a grey correlation method,and a comprehensive,intercity unite strength model and a unite threshold calculation method for urban agglomerations were established.The research shows that the economic sustainable upgrade capability,social sustainable upgrade capability,environmental sustainable upgrade capability,and comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration all show a wave-like rising trend.The average annual upgrade speeds during 2000-2015 are,respectively,2.4%.1.67%,1.1%,and 1.74%,with the intercity comprehensive unite strength of urban agglomerations maintaining a general increase;but there is a limit to the joint threshold.From 2000 to 2015,as the core city of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,Beijing,to enhance its sustainable upgrade capability,jointly developed with Tianjin,Langfang,and Baoding before 2000,Tangshan in 2002,Cangzhou in 2009,Zhangjiakou and Shijiazhuang in 2012,and Chengde in 2014.By 2015,the comprehensive unite strength between Beijing and four cities(Handan,Qinhuangdao,Hengshui,and Xingtai) was still lower than the unite threshold of 6.14.These four cities are relatively far from Beijing,and offer no substantial contribution to the sustainable upgrade capability of Beijing.Through multiple fittings of the upgrade curve using the long-term sequence index of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of Beijing(the core city of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration) from 2000 to 2015,it was found that the simulated curve of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade function of the agglomeration was very similar to the curve of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability,which indicates that the simulation results are satisfactory.The future comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of the agglomeration can be analyzed and predicted by the comprehensive sustainable upgrade function model.This study provides quantitative decision-supporting evidence for promoting the coordinated development of the Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration and provides theoretical guidance and algorithms for determining the number of cities joined with the sustainable development of national urban agglomerations.

Evolution of windblown sand flux and dune field——Trans-scale modeling and simulation

Windblown sand flux and dune field evolving toward the oasis have been a common ecological and environmental threat confronted by many countries.Meanwhile,it is also a kind of complex dynamical process involving multiple temporal and spatial scales which is still out of accurate description through current field observations.Available models and reliable quantitative simulations are of significant value to predict the spreading rate of desertification and provide an optimal design for sand prevention.This paper presents a 'triple-jump' method to realize quantitative simulations to the formation and evolution of an aeolian dune field from an arbitrary initial configuration.Simulated results achieve a satisfactory agreement with observations qualitatively and quantitatively,which also reveal the characteristics and dynamical behaviors of dunes and dune field.Such a paradigm is of a good level of generality,which provides an exploratory probe into the subject of multi-scale physics.

IMPROVED QUANTITATIVE FEEDBACK THEORY TECHNIQUE AND APPLICATION TO THREE-AXIS HYDRAULIC SIMULATOR

In order to meet tracking performance index of three-axis hydraulic simulator, based on classical quantitative feedback theory （QFT）, an improved QFT technique is used to synthesize controller of low gain and bandwidth. By choosing a special nominal plant, the improved method assigns relative magnitude and phase tracking error between system uncertainty and nominal control plant. Relative tracking error induced by system uncertainty is transformed into sensitivity problem and relative tracking error induced by nominal plant forms into a region on Nichols chart. The two constraints further form into a combined bound which is fit for magnitude and phase loop shaping. Because of leaving out pre-filter of classical QFT controller structure, tracking performance is enhanced greatly. Furthermore, a cascaded two-loop control strategy is proposed to heighten control effect. The improved technique＇s efficacy is validated by simulation and experiment results.

Quantitative Method of the Structural Damage Identification of Gas Explosion Based on Case Study:The Shanxi “11. 23” Explosion Investigation

In order to present a retrospective analysis of exposition accidents using input data from investigation processes,data from a specific accident was examined,in which we analyzed possible involved gas species（ liquefied petroleum gas; nature gas） and computed their concentrations and distributions based on the interactions between the structures and the effects of the explosion. In this study,5 scenarios were created to analyze the impact effect. Moreover,a coupling algorithm was put into practice,with a practical outflow boundary and joint strength are applied. Finally,the damage effects of each scenario were simulated. Our experimental results showed significant differences in the 5 scenarios concerning the damage effects on the building structures. The results from scenario 3 agree with the accident characteristics,demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed modeling method. Our proposed method reflects gas properties,species and the concentration and distribution,and the simulated results validates the root cause,process,and consequences of accidental explosions. Furthermore,this method describes the evolution process of explosions in different building structures. Significantly,our model demonstrates the quantatative explosion effect of factors like gas species,gas volumes,and distributions of gases on explosion results. In this study,a feasible,effective,and quantitative method for structure safety is defined,which is helpful to accelerate the development of safer site regulations.

The Relationship between Tectonic Subsidence and BSR of Upper Neogene in the Deep-Water Area of the Northern Continental Slope, South China Sea

BSR （Bottom Simulating Reflector） occurs widely in the strata since the late Miocene in the deep-water area of the northern continental slope of South China Sea （SCS）. It is an important seismic reference mark which identifies the gas hydrate and its distribution influenced by the tectonic movements. Single-point basin modeling was conducted using 473 points in the study area. To discuss the relationships between the tectonic subsidence and BSR, the volume and rate of tectonic subsidence in each geological time have been simulated. The results show that there are three tectonic accelerate subsidence processes in the study area since the late Miocene, especially since 1.8Ma the tectonic subsidence accelerates more apparently. Since the Late Miocene to Pleistocene, the rate of tectonic subsidence in deep-water underwent a transformation from weak to strong. The ratio of tectonic subsidence to the total subsidence was relatively high （65-70%）. Through the superposition of the BSR developed areas and the contours of tectonic subsidence in this area, it was discovered that more than 80% of BSR tend to be distributed at the slope break or depression-uplift structural transfer zone and the average tectonic subsidence rate ranges from 70 m/Ma to 125 m/Ma.