Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel usinga quantitative risk approach

With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades,there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design.While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters,with the advent of reliability-based methods,this no longer needs to be the case.Instead,a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads.This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk.This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece.Along this section of tunnel,weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions,which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support.Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine,in hindsight,the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure.Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

Quantitative risk assessment & leak detection criteria for a subsea oil export pipeline

A quantitative risk assessment （QRA） based on leak detection criteria （LDC） for the design of a proposed subsea oil export pipeline is presented in this paper. The objective of this QRA/LDC study was to determine if current leak detection methodologies were sufficient, based on QRA results, while excluding the use of statistical leak detection; if not, an appropriate LDC for the leak detection system would need to be established. The famous UK PARLOC database was used for the calculation of pipeline failure rates, and the software POSVCM from MMS was used for oil spill simulations. QRA results revealed that the installation of a statistically based leak detection system （LDS） can significantly reduce time to leak detection, thereby mitigating the consequences of leakage. A sound LDC has been defined based on QRA study results and comments from various LDS vendors to assist the emergency response team （ERT） to quickly identify and locate leakage and employ the most effective measures to contain damage.

A methodological framework of landslide quantitative risk assessment in areas with incomplete historical landslide information

Landslide risk assessment(LRA)is of great significance to hazard prevention and mitigation.However,the historical landslide information is incomplete in most areas,which makes the landslide quantitative risk assessment(LQRA)extremely difficult.This research proposed a set of frameworks for LQRA,so as to achieve LQRA in areas with incomplete historical landslide information.Firstly,we constructed the convolutional neural network(CNN)model suitable for landslide susceptibility assessment(LSA)by studying the structure and hyperparameters optimization of CNN.Secondly,we proposed a method to calculate the temporal probability by using the Poisson model based on the time range of historical landslides occurrence,and then conducted landslide hazard assessment(LHA).Then,we established a mathematical model for landslide intensity of shallow landslide based on landslide area and slope,aiming at solving the problem that it is difficult to calculate landslide intensity due to the lack of landslide volume and velocity.Based on the landslide intensity and the hazard-resistant capacity of the element at risk,we assessed the landslide vulnerability.Finally,population risk map and economic risk map are obtained based on the landslide hazard,vulnerability,and estimated value of the elements at risk.The proposed LQRA framework was applied to Tumen City,China for testing and field validation.From the results,the CNN model built can help improve the accuracy of LSA.The proposed temporal probability calculation method is conducive to the completion of LHA in areas with incomplete historical landslide information.The established landslide intensity mathematical model has certain credibility.Since the landslide risk map is obtained through appropriate simplification and substitution estimation,its final value cannot be used as an accurate prediction of future losses,but it can be used as a reference for the extent of potential losses,so as to determine the areas where hazard prevention and mitigation measures need to be taken.

Quantitative Risk Assessment with Data Mining for Formaldehyde Content of Imported Textile

The assessment of potential risks posed by formaldehyde in clothing to consumers is of increasing concern worldwide,for free formaldehyde is harmful to human. Some papers focus on hazard and exposure assessment,using quantitative and semi-quantitative method, rather than assessment for the factors related to formaldehyde content. In order to perform early-warning research and risk management,the quantitative risk assessment is used to analyze the imported textile testing data and find the factors related to formaldehyde content. K-means algorithm is the core of the method. It can be concluded that the disqualified textiles have relations with main fiber components,fabric color,season month,and brand. Then the data in the same attribute are clustered by Kmeans algorithm. The different classes are defined as related danger level,respectively severe,moderate,and light.

Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Rainfall-Induced Complex Landslide in Wanzhou County,Three Gorges Reservoir,China

On 4 April 2013,a 1.5 million cubic meter landslide occurred in Sunjia Town,Wanzhou County,Three Gorges Reservoir,China.After initiation,the Sunjia landslide traveled about 30 m toward the northeast and destroyed most of the infrastructure in its path.The landslide was triggered by heavy rainfall and previous slope excavations,but this slope also displayed a complicated failure process:the overlying earth slope first deformed and then induced sliding along underlying rock surfaces.Surface displacements that resulted from continuous creeping of the post-event slope were observed by an emergency monitoring system that revealed the disequilibrium state of the slope.To discuss the stability and future movements of the remaining unstable debris deposits,we developed a geotechnical model of the post-slide slope,calculated how it can slide again in an extreme rainfall scenario,and estimated the potential runout distance using the Tsunami Squares method.We then estimated the number of people and the value of the infrastructure threatened by this potential landslide.Lastly,we analyzed the vulnerability of elements at risk and quantitatively evaluated the hazard risk associated with the most dangerous scenario.This quantitative risk analysis provides a better understanding of,and technical routes for,hazard mitigation of rainfallinduced complex landslides.

Concerns arise: wheat allergy risk in pre-packaged food products from China

Understanding and monitoring the cross-contamination of food allergens is crucial for safeguarding public health and ensuring food safety.Food allergen risk assessment,derived from classical toxicological principles,can identify and quantify the risk of allergies.This study aimed to investigate the risk of wheat allergic reactions to prepackaged foods from China through the utilization of food allergen risk assessment.A total of 575 products have been surveyed,wheat/gluten,milk and egg were major allergens labelled on products.According to voluntary incidental trace allergen labelling 3.0(VITAL®3.0)program,the number of products belonged to Action Level 2 were 303.Integration of precautionary allergen labeling(PAL)analysis indicated that 9.57%products would pose a potential risk to wheat allergic individuals.The probabilistic risk assessment results suggest that 7984 allergic reactions may arise among wheat-allergic consumers during 10000 eating occasions due to the consumption of pre-packaged food products with incorrect wheat-related allergen labelling.This study demonstrated that a risk assessment-based approach can support the guidance of allergen labelling and management of food allergen for pre-packaged food products,providing protection for allergic individuals in food consumption and for food manufacturers in food production and trade.

Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

Risk of Waterborne Parasitic Infection among Vegetables Producers in the City of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: An Attempt to Quantify Them Using the Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment Method

The use of wastewater in urban agriculture has been promoted as an alternative to water scarcity and as a means to increase soil fertilizer. However, the use of wastewater in urban agriculture raises major public health concerns, mainly due to the often high concentration of pathogenic micro-organisms. Waterborne parasites are a major health concern in this regard, especially in endemic areas, mainly due to the high environmental resistance of eggs/cysts combined with a low infectious dose. In this study, the parasitological risk to vegetables producers in Ouagadougou using polluted water was evaluated through the quantitative microbiological risk analysis method. For this purpose, the search for and quantification of viable parasite eggs and cysts in irrigation water was coupled with epidemiological surveillance of vegetables producers in Ouagadougou. Protozoa and helminths belonging to 9 species were recorded and samples analyzed. These include Ancylostoma sp., Ascaris lumbricoides, tapeworm’s sp, Strongyloides stercoralis, Entamoeba histolytica, Giardia lamblia. Despite the variability of isolated parasitic species, Ancylostoma sp. eggs were common and severe to all types of water. Moreover, epidemiological approach showed that there were more parasitic species found in irrigation water and also other parasitic species circulating among vegetable farmers. In addition, there is no statistical significant association between the type of water used for irrigation and the carried parasites by vegetable gardeners. However, contamination of the groups using the raw wastewater is once higher than those using well water. When one is interested in the groups using treated wastewater as a source of irrigation, these risks of contaminations are halved. These contaminations are halved when one looks at groups using treated wastewater as a source of irrigation water. Still, whatever the type of water used by the gardeners, they have a probability of infection with Ancylostoma sp. of around 9.83 × 10−1 pppy.

Study on Quantitative Assessment for the Social Risk of Major Geological Disasters

Based on the analysis of social risk of geological disasters,the index system of social risk evaluation was established. To assess the social risk quantitatively,a quantitative evaluation model of the social risk was established based on AHP,and the social risk of geological disasters was graded. Finally,the evaluation model was applied in a case.

Numerical simulation to determine the gas explosion risk in longwall goaf areas:A case study of Xutuan Colliery

Underground gassy longwall mining goafs may suffer potential gas explosions during the mining process because of the irregularity of gas emissions in the goaf and poor ventilation of the working face,which are risks difficult to control.In this work,the 3235 working face of the Xutuan Colliery in Suzhou City,China,was researched as a case study.The effects of air quantity and gas emission on the three-dimensional distribution of oxygen and methane concentration in the longwall goaf were studied.Based on the revised Coward’s triangle and linear coupling region formula,the coupled methane-oxygen explosive hazard zones(CEHZs)were drawn.Furthermore,a simple practical index was proposed to quantitatively determine the gas explosion risk in the longwall goaf.The results showed that the CEHZs mainly focus on the intake side where the risk of gas explosion is greatest.The CEHZ is reduced with increasing air quantity.Moreover,the higher the gas emission,the larger the CEHZ,which moves towards the intake side at low goaf heights and shifts to the deeper parts of the goaf at high heights.In addition,the risk of gas explosion is reduced as air quantities increase,but when gas emissions increase to a higher level(greater than 50 m3/min),the volume of the CEHZ does not decrease with the increase of air quantity,and the risk of gas explosion no longer shows a linear downward trend.This study is of significance as it seeks to reduce gas explosion accidents and improve mine production safety.

Application of Risk Probability Evaluation Method to Offshore Platform Construction

Offshore project risk concerns many influence factors with complex relationship, and traditional methods cannot be used for the evaluation on risk probability. To deal with this problem, a new method was developed by the combination of improved technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution method, analytical hierarchy process method and the network response surface method. The risk probability was calculated by adopting network response surface analysis based on the state variable of a known event and its degree of membership.This quantification method was applied to an offshore platform project, Bonan oil and gas field project in Bohai Bay in June 2004.There were 7 sub-projects and each includes 4 risk factors.The values of 28 risk factors, ranging from 10^-6 to 10^-4, were achieved. This precision conforms to the international principle of as low as reasonably practically.The evaluation indicates that the values of comprehensive level of construction group and ability of technical personnel on the spot are relatively high among all risk factors, so these two factors should be paid more attention to in offshore platform construction.

Cosmetic Safety and Risk Assessment Under the “New” Regulations

Regulations for the Supervision and Administration of Cosmetics was promulgated by the State Council on June 29,2020 and will take effect on January 1,2021.Compared with the previous Regulations on Health Supervision of Cosmetics,there are more items proposed for the safety of cosmetics.In this paper,the main changes of the safety supervision of cosmetics by comparing the“new”and“old”regulations were summarized with the potential influences on different groups(government,cosmetic enterprises and consumers)discussed.The important laws and regulations on cosmetic safety and risk assessment in China with recently added in vitro testing methods were summarized and the principal theory of cosmetic quantitative risk assessment was introduced.

Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project:An assessment framework

Inter-basin water diversion projects have led to accelerated colonization of aquatic organisms,including the freshwater golden mussel(Limnoperna fortunei),exacerbating global biofouling concerns.While the influence of environmental factors on the mussel's invasion and biofouling impact has been studied,quantitative correlations and underlying mechanisms remain unclear,particularly in large-scale interbasin water diversion projects with diverse hydrodynamic and environmental conditions.Here,we examine the comprehensive impact of environmental variables on the establishment risk of the golden mussel in China's 1432-km-long Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.Logistic regression and multiclass classification models were used to investigate the environmental influence on the occurrence probability and reproductive density of the golden mussel.Total nitrogen,ammonia nitrogen,water temperature,pH,and velocity were identified as crucial environmental variables affecting the biofouling risk in the project.Logistic regression analysis revealed a negative correlation between the occurrence probability of all larval stages and levels of total nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen.The multiclass classification model showed that elevated levels of total nitrogen hindered mussel reproduction,while optimal water temperature enhanced their reproductive capacity.Appropriate velocity and pH levels were crucial in maintaining moderate larval density.This research presents a quantitative analytical framework for assessing establishment risks associated with invasive mussels,and the framework is expected to enhance invasion management and mitigate biofouling issues in water diversion projects worldwide.

Evaluation of bacterial pathogen diversity,abundance and health risks in urban recreational water by amplicon next-generation sequencing and quantitative PCR

The microbial quality of urban recreational water is of great concern to public health.The monitoring of indicator organisms and several pathogens alone is not sufficient to accurately and comprehensively identify microbial risks.To assess the levels of bacterial pathogens and health risks in urban recreational water,we analyzed pathogen diversity and quantified four pathogens in 46 water samples collected from waterbodies in Beijing Olympic Forest Park in one year.The pathogen diversity revealed by 16 S r RNA gene targeted next-generation sequencing（NGS） showed that 16 of 40 genera and 13 of 76 reference species were present.The most abundant species were Acinetobacter johnsonii,Mycobacterium avium and Aeromonas spp.Quantitative polymerase chain reaction（q PCR） of Escherichia coli（uid A）,Aeromonas（aer A）,M.avium（16S r RNA）,Pseudomonas aeruginosa（oaa） and Salmonella（inv A） showed that the aer A genes were the most abundant,occurring in all samples with concentrations of 10^（4–6） genome copies/100 m L,followed by oaa,inv A and M.avium.In total,34.8% of the samples harbored all genes,indicating the prevalence of these pathogens in this recreational waterbody.Based on the q PCR results,a quantitative microbial risk assessment（QMRA） showed that the annual infection risks of Salmonella,M.avium and P.aeruginosa in five activities were mostly greater than the U.S.EPA risk limit for recreational contacts,and children playing with water may be exposed to the greatest infection risk.Our findings provide a comprehensive understanding of bacterial pathogen diversity and pathogen abundance in urban recreational water by applying both NGS and q PCR.

Evolution and health risk of indicator microorganisms in landscape water replenished by reclaimed water

As an important means to solve water shortage,reclaimed water has been widely used for landscape water supply.However,with the emergence of large-scale epidemic diseases such as SARS,avian influenza and COVID-19 in recent years,people are increasingly concerned about the public health safety of reclaimed water discharged into landscape water,especially the pathogenic microorganisms in it.In this study,the water quality and microorganisms of the Old Summer Palace,a landscape water body with reclaimed water as the only replenishment water source,were tracked through long-term dynamic monitoring.And the health risks of indicator microorganisms were analyzed using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment(QMRA).It was found that the concentration of indicator microorganisms Enterococcus(ENT),Escherichia coli(EC)and Fecal coliform(FC)generally showed an upward trend along the direction of water flow and increased by more than 0.6 log at the end of the flow.The concentrations of indicator microorganisms were higher in summer and autumn than those in spring.And there was a positive correlation between the concentration of indicator microorganisms and COD.Further research suggested that increased concentration of indicator microorganisms also led to increased health risks,which were more than 30%higher in other areas of the park than the water inlet area and required special attention.In addition,(water)surface operation exposure pathway had much higher health risks than other pathways and people in related occupations were advised to take precautions to reduce the risks.

Atmospheric dispersion of chemical,biological,and radiological hazardous pollutants:Informing risk assessment for public safety

Modern society is confronted with emerging threats from chemical,biological,and radiological(CBR)hazardous substances,which are intensively utilized in the chemical,medical,and energy industries.The atmospheric dis-persion of released CBR hazardous pollutants can influence a large percentage of the population owing to their rapid process with extensive spatial coverage.It is important to comprehensively understand the behaviors of the released CBR pollutants in the atmosphere to fully evaluate the risks and protect public safety.In this study,we reviewed the advancements in the atmospheric transport of CBR pollutants,including the urban atmospheric boundary layer,unique concepts,and models for CBR pollutants.We underlined the development of innovative methodologies(e.g.,inverse estimation and data assimilation methods)for the atmospheric transport of acciden-tally released CBR pollutants to reduce uncertainties in emissions and accumulated errors during dispersion by combining numerical models with monitoring data.Finally,we introduced progress in quantitative risk assess-ment,including exposure assessment and dose-response relationships for CBR hazardous pollutants.A framework,source,assimilation,fundamentals,exposure,and risk(SAFER),has been proposed to integrate the key compo-nents in the risk assessment of airborne CBR hazardous pollutants.These methods and models can contribute to effective risk preparedness,prevention,evidence-based policymaking,and emergency response to airborne CBR pollutants.

Quantification of hookworm ova from wastewater matrices using quantitative PCR

A quantitative PCR（q PCR） assay was used to quantify Ancylostoma caninum ova in wastewater and sludge samples.We estimated the average gene copy numbers for a single ovum using a mixed population of ova.The average gene copy numbers derived from the mixed population were used to estimate numbers of hookworm ova in A.caninum seeded and unseeded wastewater and sludge samples.The newly developed qP CR assay estimated an average of3.7 × 10~3 gene copies per ovum,which was then validated by seeding known numbers of hookworm ova into treated wastewater.The qP CR estimated an average of（1.1 ± 0.1）,（8.6 ± 2.9）and（67.3 ± 10.4） ova for treated wastewater that was seeded with（1 ± 0）,（10 ± 2） and（100 ± 21）ova,respectively.The further application of the q PCR assay for the quantification of A.caninum ova was determined by seeding a known numbers of ova into the wastewater matrices.The qP CR results indicated that 50%,90% and 67% of treated wastewater（1 L）,raw wastewater（1 L）and sludge（~4 g） samples had variable numbers of A.caninum gene copies.After conversion of the q PCR estimated gene copy numbers to ova for treated wastewater,raw wastewater,and sludge samples,had an average of 0.02,1.24 and 67 ova,respectively.The result of this study indicated that qP CR can be used for the quantification of hookworm ova from wastewater and sludge samples;however,caution is advised in interpreting qP CR generated data for health risk assessment.

Explosion Hazard Analysis of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Transportation

This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)transportation.An accident that happened on June 13,2020,on the highway near Wenling,China is studied as a case.In this accident,LPG carried by a tank truck on the highway leaked and caused a large explosion,which led to 20 deaths.Different methods are combined to calculate the consequence of the accident.Multi-energy model and rupture of vessel model are employed to calculate the overpressure;the simulation result of the multi-energy model is closer to the damage caused by the accident.The safety distances in accidents of LPG transport storage tanks of different capacities are calculated in this study;the results show that the damage of explosion will increase with the filling degree of the tank.Even though the filling degree is 90%(value required by law),the 99%fatality rate range will reach 42 m,which is higher than regulated distance between road and building.The social risk of the tank truck has also been calculated and the results show that the risk is not acceptable.The calculating method used in this study could evaluate the risk of LPG tanker more accurately,which may contribute to the establishment of transportation regulation so that losses from similar accidents in the future could be reduced.

Probabilistic modeling for an integrated temporary acquired immunity with norovirus epidemiological data

Integration of acquired immunity into microbial risk assessment for illness incidence is of no doubt essential for the study of susceptibility to illness.In this study,a probabilistic model was set up as dose response for infection and a mathematical derivation was carried out by integrating immunity to obtain probability of illness models.Temporary acquire immunity from epidemiology studies which includes six different Norovirus transmission scenarios such as symptomatic individuals infectious,pre-and post-symptomatic infectiousness(low and high),innate genetic resistance,genogroup 2 type 4 and those with no immune boosting by asymptomatic infection were evaluated.Simulated results on illness inflation factor as a function of dose and exposure indicated that high frequency exposures had immense immunity build up even at high dose levels;hence minimized the probability of illness.Using Norovirus transmission dynamics data,results showed,and immunity included models had a reduction of 2e6 logs of magnitude difference in disease burden for both population and individual probable illness incidence.Additionally,the magnitude order of illness for each dose response remained largely the same for all transmission scenarios;symptomatic infectiousness and no immune boosting after asymptomatic infectiousness also remained the same throughout.With integration of epidemiological data on acquired immunity into the risk assessment,more realistic results were achieved signifying an overestimation of probable risk of illness when epidemiological immunity data are not included.This finding supported the call for rigorous integration of temporary acquired immunity in dose-response in all microbial risk assessments.