The Combined Effects of the Tropical and Extratropical Quasi-biweekly Oscillations on the Record-setting Mei-yu Rainfall in the Summer of 2020

During June-July 2020,the strongest recorded mei-yu rainfall occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The rainfall processes exhibited an obvious quasi-biweekly(biweekly in brief)variability,and there are altogether five cycles.It is found that the biweekly rainfall cycle mainly arises from the collaborative effects of biweekly variabilities from both the tropics and extratropics.As for the tropics,the biweekly meridional march and retreat of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)is particularly evident.As for the extratropics,geopotential height anomalies near Lake Baikal are active.The former is attributed to the intensified biweekly activity of the southwest-northeast oriented EastAsian Pacific wave train(EAP)originating from the tropical western Pacific,while the latter is associated with the biweekly activities of the eastward propagating Eurasia mid-high latitudinal wave train and the westward propagating North Pacific wave train.Why the biweekly activities of these wave trains intensified is further diagnosed from the perspective of thermodynamical forcing and also from the modulation of interannual background on intraseasonal variability.It is found that the strongest recorded convection anchoring over the tropical western Indian Ocean(IO)triggers anomalous descent over the tropical western Pacific,which modulates the biweekly activity of the EAP.Meanwhile,the anomalous diabatic heating over the IO causes changes of the meridional thermodynamic contrast across the IO to the high latitudes,which modulates the extratropical wave trains.A further diagnosis of barotropic kinetic energy conversion suggests that the active occurrence of two extratropical biweekly wave trains is attributed to the increased efficiency of energy conversion from basic flow.The westward propagation of the extratropical North Pacific wave train is attributed to the weakened and northshifted upper-level westerly,which is caused by the SST warmth near the Kuroshio extension.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific by the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation

The quasi-biweekly oscillation （QBWO） is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the westem North Pacific （WNP） during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis （TCG） by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found. More TCG events occur during the QBWO＇s convectively active phase. Based on the genesis potential index （GPI）, we further evaluate the role of environmental factors in affecting WNP TCG. The positive GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO correspond well with TCG counts and locations. A large positive GPI anomaly is spatially correlated with WNP TCG events during a life cycle of the QBWO. The low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity appear to be two dominant contributors to the QBWO-composited GPI anomalies during the QBWO＇s active phase, followed by the nonlinear and potential intensity terms. These positive contributions to the GPI anomalies are partly offset by the negative contribution from the vertical wind shear. During the QBWO＇s inactive phase, the mid-level relative humidity appears to be the largest contributor, while weak contributions are also made by the nonlinear and low-level relative vorticity terms. Meanwhile, these positive contributions are partly cancelled out by the negative contribution from the potential intensity. The contributions of these environmental factors to the GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO are similar in all five flow patterns--the monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly wave, and Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with a preexisting TC. Further analyses show that the QBWO strongly modulates the synoptic-scale wave trains （SSWs） over the WNP, with larger amplitude SSWs during the QBWO＇s active phase. This implies a possible enhanced （weakened） relationship between TCG and SSWs during the active （inactive） phase. This study improves our understanding of the modulation of WNP TCG by the QBWO and thus helps with efforts to improve the intraseasonal prediction of WNP TCG.

Moisture Structure of the Quasi-biweekly Mode Revealed by AIRS in Western Pacific

Using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder （AIRS） humidity profiles, rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Global Precipitation Index （GPI）, Quick Seatterometer （QSCAT） satellite-observed surface winds, and SST from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for NASA＇s Earth Observing System （AMSR_E）, we analyzed the structure of the summer quasi-biweekly mode （QBM） over the western Pacific in 2003-2004. We find that the signal of 10 20-day oscillations in the western Pacific originates from the Philippine Sea, and propagates northwestward toward South China. The AIRS data reveal that the boundary-layer moisture provides preconditioning for QBM propagation, and leads the mid-troposphere moisture during the entire QBM cycle. The positive SST anomaly leads or is in-phase with the boundary- layer moistening, and may be a major contributor. Most likely, the 10 20-day SST anomaly positively feeds back to the atmosphere by moistening the boundary layer, destabilizing the troposphere, and leading the QBM to propagate northwestward in the western North Pacific. However, the ECMWF/TOGA （Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere） analysis does not display boundary-layer （BL） moisture anomalies leading the mid-troposphere moisture.

THE NORTH-SOUTH ANTI-PHASE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL IN MEIYU PERIODS AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH QUASI-BIWEEKLY OSCILLATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Based on the daily rainfall datasets from 740 stations in China from 1954 to 2005 and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the relationship between the north-south anti-phase distribution(APD) of rainfall during Meiyu periods and the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation(QBWO) in the atmosphere was analyzed. Diagnostic results are as follows:(1) there was significant north-south oscillation of Meiyu rainfall during the 16 years from 1954 to 2005. Since the 1990 s, the APD enhanced significantly and showed 2- and 4-6-year period. In the region with more rainfall, the QBWO was always more active.(2) The APD of Meiyu and north-south movements of precipitation in eastern China belong to the same phase.(3) The 10-25 day filtered water vapor flux could spread to the area north of 30°N in 1991. The divergence of the water vapor flux which propagated from middle- and higher- latitudes to the of Yangtze-Huaihe River Basins(YHRB) was significant in 1991, but the latitudes that the water vapor flux could reach were further southward and there was no southward propagation of divergence in 1993.(4) The locations of Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) and 10-25 day anti-cyclone, which modulated WPSH's advancement in and out of the South China Sea, were relatively northward in 1991. Furthermore, the vertical circulation showed north-south deviation between 1991 and 1993, just as other elements of the circulation did.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Northwestern Pacific Through the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation

The quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode for circulation over the Northwestern Pacific(WNP)during boreal summer.In this study,we investigated how the QBWO modulates tropical cyclone(TC)activities over the WNP from dynamic and thermodynamic perspectives.The propagation of the QBWO can be divided into four phases through empirical orthogonal function analysis of the vorticity at 850 hPa,which was proven to be effective in extracting the QBWO signal.TC generation and landings are significantly enhanced during the active period(phases 1 and 2)relative to the inactive period(phases 3 and 4).Composite analyses show the QBWO could significantly modulate TC activity as it propagates northwestward by changing the atmospheric circulation at both high and low levels.Cumulus convection provides an important link between TCs and the QBWO.The major component of the atmosphere heat source is found to be the latent heat release of convection.The condensation latent heat centers,vertical circulation,and water vapor flux divergence cooperate well during different phases of the QBWO.The vertical profile of the condensation latent heat indicates upper-level heating(cooling)during the active(inactive)phases of the QBWO.Thus,the northwestward propagation of the QBWO can modulate TC activity by affecting the configuration of atmospheric heating over the WNP.

Modulation of the Intensity of Nascent Tibetan Plateau Vortices by Atmospheric Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation

The modulation of the intensity of nascent Tibetan Plateau vortices(ITPV) by atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) is investigated based on final operational global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The spatial and temporal distributions of the ITPV show distinct features of 10–20-day QBWO. The average ITPV is much higher in the positive phases than in the negative phases, and the number of strong TPVs is much larger in the former,with a peak that appears in phase 3. In addition, the maximum centers of the ITPV stretch eastward in the positive phases,indicating periodic variations in the locations where strong TPVs are generated. The large-scale circulations and related thermodynamic fields are discussed to investigate the mechanism by which the 10–20-day QBWO modulates the ITPV. The atmospheric circulations and heating fields of the 10–20-day QBWO have a major impact on the ITPV. In the positive QBWO phases, the anomalous convergence at 500 hPa and divergence at 200 hPa are conducive to ascending motion. In addition, the convergence centers of the water vapor and the atmospheric unstable stratification are found in the positive QBWO phases and move eastward. Correspondingly, condensational latent heat is released and shifts eastward with the heating centers located at 400 hPa, which favors a higher ITPV by depressing the isobaric surface at 500 hPa. All of the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions in the positive QBWO phases are conducive to the generation of stronger TPVs and their eastward expansion.

Effect of the westward-propagating zonal wind anomaly on the initial development of quasi-biweekly oscillation over the South China Sea during early summer

The characteristics of quasi-biweekly oscillation（QBWO） over the South China Sea during early summer are investigated.Composite results demonstrate that QBWO convection and the meridional wind anomaly exhibit local variation,while the zonal wind anomaly displays zonal propagation.Besides,emergence of the zonal wind anomaly precedes the enhancement of QBWO convection,suggesting the zonally propagating zonal wind anomaly may play a key role in initiating the development of QBWO convection.Diagnostics of the convergence of moisture flux and divergence tendency indicate that QBWO convection is primarily modulated by eddy divergence.Among the contributing factors in the divergence tendency,the β effect associated with the zonally-propagating zonal wind anomaly makes an appropriate phase difference with the eddy divergence,which can contribute to the convergence tendency in the initial stage of QBWO.As a result,QBWO convection and the meridional wind anomaly are enhanced,thus facilitating the initial development of QBWO convection over the SCS during early summer.

Potential vorticity analysis of quasi-biweekly rainfall events over the Yangtze Basin in summer 2014

A series of heavy rainfall events occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in summer 2014,which were modulated by the 10-20-day quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO).Thus,the strongest QBWO cycle for the period 10-24 July was used as a representative case to reveal the dynamical mechanism for the QBWO of the YRV rainfall from the potential vorticity(PV)perspective and based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data.The quasi-biweekly YRV rainfall was found to depend closely on the QBWO of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high(SAH),with the SAH configuration modified by the southward-intruding midlatitude high PV stream along with southwestward-advected high PV,altering the divergent condition over the YRV.Quantitative diagnoses for the anomalous vertical motion demonstrated that,in the wet phase of the QBWO cycle,the upper-tropospheric southward-intruding high PV stream acted as a positive PV advection,while negative PV advection was generated due to the lower-tropospheric southerlies,thereby forming a positive vertical gradient of horizontal PV advection to induce evident isentropic-displacement ascending motion.On the other hand,the southward-intruding high PV stream extended downward to the middle troposphere,causing the isentropic surfaces to become more sloping,thus producing a strong isentropic-gliding ascending component.Subsequently,the stronger diabatic heating-related ascending motion was induced to generate positive rainfall anomalies over the YRV.The opposite situation arose in the dry phase,with weak descending motion in magnitude.

Origins of Quasi-Biweekly and Intraseasonal Oscillations over the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal and Scale Selection of Unstable Equatorial and Off-Equatorial Modes

The daily outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)field in boreal summer shows significant power spectrum peaks on quasi-biweekly(10–20-day)and intraseasonal(20–80-day)timescales over the Indo–western Pacific warm pool,especially over the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal.The quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)originates from offequatorial western North Pacific,and is characterized by a northwest–southeast oriented wave train pattern,propagating northwestward.The intraseasonal oscillation(ISO),on the other hand,originates from the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagates eastward and northward.Why the equatorial mode possesses a 20–80-day periodicity while the off-equatorial mode favors a 10–20-day periodicity is investigated through idealized numerical experiments with a 2.5-layer atmospheric model.In the off-equatorial region,the model simulates,under a realistic three-dimensional summer mean flow,the most unstable mode that has a wave train pattern with a typical zonal wavelength of 6000 km and a period of 10–20 days,propagating northwestward.This is in contrast to the equatorial region,where a Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO)like mode with a planetary(wavenumber-1)zonal scale and a period ranging from 20 to 80 days is simulated.Sensitivity experiments with different initial conditions indicate that the QBWO is an intrinsic mode of the atmosphere in boreal summer in the off-equatorial Indo–western Pacific region under the summer mean state,while the MJO is the most unstable mode in the equatorial region.

Springtime Convective Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation and Interannual Variation of Its Intensity over the South China Sea and Western North Pacific

This study investigates characteristics of the convective quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) over the South China Sea(SCS) and western North Pacific(WNP) in spring, and the interannual variation of its intensity. Convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS shows both similarities and differences. Convective QBWO over the WNP originates mainly from southeast of the Philippine Sea and propagates northwestward. In contrast, convective QBWO over the SCS can be traced mainly to east of the Philippines and features a westward propagation. Such a westward or northwestward propagation is probably related to n = 1 equatorial Rossby waves. During the evolution of convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS, the vertical motion and specific humidity exhibit a barotropic structure and the vertical relative vorticity shows a baroclinic structure in the troposphere. The dominant mode of interannual variation of convective QBWO intensity over the SCS–WNP region in spring is homogeneous. Its positive phase indicates enhanced convective QBWO intensity accompanied by local enhanced QBWO intensity of vertical motion throughout the troposphere as well as local enhanced(weakened) QBWO intensity of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity,and wind in the lower(upper) troposphere. The positive phase usually results from local increases of the background moisture and anomalous vertical shear of easterlies. The latter contributes to the relationship between the dominant mode and QBWO intensities of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity, and wind. Finally, a connection between the dominant mode and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean is demonstrated.

Propagation and Mechanisms of the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation over the Asian Summer Monsoon Region

The propagation and underlying mechanisms of the boreal summer quasi-biweekly oscillation（QBWO）over the entire Asian monsoon region are investigated,based on ECMWF Interim reanalysis（ERA-Interim）data,GPCP precipitation data,and an atmospheric general circulation model（AGCM）.Statistical analyses indicate that the QBWO over the Asian monsoon region derives its main origin from the equatorial western Pacific and moves northwestward to the Bay of Bengal and northern India,and then northward to the Tibetan Plateau（TP）area,with a baroclinic vertical structure.Northward propagation of the QBWO is promoted by three main mechanisms：barotropic vorticity,boundary moisture advection,and surface sensible heating（SSH）.It is dominated by the barotropic vorticity effect when the QBWO signals are situated to the south of 20°N.During the propagation taking place farther north toward the TP,the boundary moisture advection and SSH are the leading mechanisms.We use an AGCM to verify the importance of SSH on the northward propagation of the QBWO.Numerical simulations confirm the diagnostic conclusion that the equatorial western Pacific is the source of the QBWO.Importantly,the model can accurately simulate the propagation pathway of the QBWO signals over the Asian monsoon region.Simultaneously,sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the SSH over northern India and the southern slope of the TP greatly contributes to the northward propagation of the QBWO as far as the TP area.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF QUASI-BIWEEKLY OSCILLATION IN TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE

By using a P-σ incorporated coordinate five-layer primitive equation spherical band model with surface temperature controlled by the heat balance equation,a simulation is done of disturbance formation in an anomalously warm SST area and of the quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)of the disturbance,and associated rainfall and SST with SST being 1/3 period of oscillational phase ahead of rainfall.The study shows that the oscillation is produced by cloud-radiation interaction.Initial anomalously warm SST in the mid-western Pa- cific causes stronger oscillation than in the eastern.Hence the oscillation gets attenuated during the eastward movement of the disturbance.

The Record-breaking Mei-yu in 2020 and Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Tropical SST Anomalies

The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rainstorm processes.It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu,a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt,and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes.Correspondingly,during the mei-yu season,the monsoon circulation subsystems,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the upper-level East Asian westerly jet,and the low-level southwesterly jet,experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO.Most notably,the repeated establishment of a large southerly center,with relatively stable latitude,led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly.This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes.Moreover,two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia,and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active,which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths.The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV.The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH,which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.

Recent Progress in the Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate in China

Studies of the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） on climate in China in the last four years are reviewed. It is reported that temperature and precipitation over the TP have increased during recent decades. From satellite data analysis, it is demonstrated that most of the precipitation over the TP is from deep convection clouds. Moreover, the huge TP mechanical forcing and extraordinary elevated thermal forcing impose remarkable impacts upon local circulation and global climate. In winter and spring, stream flow is deflected by a large obstacle and appears as an asymmetric dipole, making East Asia much colder than mid Asia in winter and forming persistent rainfall in late winter and early spring over South China. In late spring, TP heating contributes to the establishment and intensification of the South Asian high and the abrupt seasonal transition of the surrounding circulations. In summer, TP heating in conjunction with the TP air pump cause the deviating stream field to resemble a cyclonic spiral, converging towards and rising over the TP. Therefore, the prominent Asian monsoon climate over East Asia and the dry climate over mid Asia in summer are forced by both TP local forcing and Eurasian continental forcing. Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast. On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP leads to a significant variability in the atmospheric circulation on a quasi-biweekly timescale, bearing much similarity to that found from observational studies. Finally, some important issues for further work in understanding the impacts of the TP are raised.

Intraseasonal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin

This work investigates the boreal-summer intraseasonal variability(ISV)of the precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(LYRB)during 1979–2016,based on daily Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data.The ISV of the summer monsoon rainfall over the LYRB is mainly dominated by the lower-frequency 12–20-day variability and the higher-frequency 8–12-day variability.The lower-frequency variability is found to be related to the northwestwardpropagating quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)over the western North Pacific spanning the South China Sea(SCS)and Philippine Sea,while the higher-frequency variability is related to the southeastward propagating midlatitude wave train(MLWT).Moreover,not each active QBWO(MLWT)in the SCS(East Asia)can generate ISV components of the precipitation anomaly over the LYRB.The QBWO can change the rainfall significantly with the modulation of mean state precipitation,while the quasi-11-day mode mainly depends on the intensity of the MLWT rather than the mean precipitation change.These findings should enrich our understanding of the ISV of the East Asian summer monsoon and improve its predictability.

Roles of Synoptic to Quasi-Monthly Disturbances in Generating Two Pre-Summer Heavy Rainfall Episodes over South China

In this study,power spectral analysis and bandpass filtering of daily meteorological fields are performed to explore the roles of synoptic to quasi-monthly disturbances in influencing the generation of pre-summer heavy rainfall over South China.Two heavy rainfall episodes are selected during the months of April-June 2008-15,which represent the collaboration between the synoptic and quasi-biweekly disturbances and the synoptic and quasi-monthly disturbances,respectively.Results show that the first heavy rainfall episode takes place in a southwesterly anomalous flow associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea(SCS)at the quasi-biweekly scale with 15.1%variance contributions,and at the synoptic scale in a convergence zone between southwesterly and northeasterly anomalous flows associated with a southeastward-moving anticyclonic anomaly on the leeside of the Yungui Plateau and an eastwardpropagating anticyclonic anomaly from higher latitudes with 35.2%variance contribution.In contrast,the second heavy rainfall episode takes place in southwest-to-westerly anomalies converging with northwest-to-westerly anomalies at the quasi-monthly scale with 23.2%variance contributions to the total rainfall variance,which are associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and an eastward-propagating cyclonic anomaly over North China,respectively.At the synoptic scale,it occurs in south-to-southwesterly anomalies converging with a cyclonic anomaly on the downstream of the Yungui Plateau with 49.3%variance contributions.In both cases,the lower-tropospheric mean south-to-southwesterly flows provide ample moisture supply and potentially unstable conditions;it is the above synoptic,quasi-biweekly or quasimonthly disturbances that determine the general period and distribution of persistent heavy rainfall over South China.

Relationship between equatorial pressure oscillations and tropical cyclones landing over China

With daily reanalysis data by NCEP/NCAR and data of tropical cyclones landing over China from 1949 to 2005, the variation of low-frequency oscillations of equatorial pressure and their relationship with tropical cyclones landing over China in the summer half of the years (June through October) are studied for the 57 years, using spectral analysis and correlation analysis. The results show that the summertime equatorial pressure is mainly of periodic oscillations of 5―7 days and 10―30 days and the interannual variation of the intensity of its quasi-biweekly oscillation is significantly positive correlation with the number of tropical cyclones landing over China. The quasi-biweekly oscillation is filtered from daily equatorial pressure in May―November over the 57 years with inverse wavelet transform and the probability for tropical cyclones landing on coastal China within four days before and after the oscillatory valleys of quasi-biweekly pressure at the equator is 59.7% and 73.0% for June to October and July to September respectively. The model of atmospheric circulation for quasi-biweekly oscillatory valleys of equatorial pressure in association with or without tropical cyclones landing over China in July―September is set up with the composite analysis method. When the valleys are associated with (without) landfall, zonal (meridional) circulation prevails in the mid and high latitudes of the Eastern Hemisphere, the high pressure ridge is weak (strong) near the Sea of Okhotsk, the westerly zone is northward (southward), the subtropical high is westward (eastward) in location and strong (weak) in intensity, the cross-equatorial flow is strong (weak) in southeast Asia, Southwest Monsoon is strong (weak) and stronger (weaker) while in the valleys of pressure, being favorable (unfavorable) for tropical cyclones landing over China. The atmospheric circulation model for oscillatory valleys of biweekly equatorial pressure in association with (without) tropical cyclones landing over China, which can reflect the difference of atmospheric circulation between them, is beneficial to medium-term forecasts of tropical cyclones landing over China.

Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Circulation Anomalies Associated with Persistent Rainy Days in 2018/2019 Winter in Shanghai, China

Shanghai experienced the longest rainy days in 2018/2019 winter since 1988. The physical cause of such an unusual climate condition was investigated through the diagnosis of observational data. From a seasonal perspective, a long persistent rainy winter was often associated with an El Ni?o condition in the equatorial Pacific. This abnormal oceanic condition induces a remote teleconnection pattern with pronounced low-level southerly anomalies over East China.The wind anomalies transported moisture from tropical oceans and caused persistent rainfall in East Asia. Meanwhile, the local rainfall time series exhibited a strong quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). Three persistent rainy events were identified in the 2018/2019 winter and they all occurred during the active phase of the QBWO. The first two events were associated with a low pressure anomaly west of Shanghai. Southerly anomalies associated with the low pressure system advected high mean moisture into central eastern China, leading to the persistent rainfall there.The third event was associated with a high pressure anomaly in lower troposphere to the east of Shanghai, which induced anomalous southerlies to its west, favoring the occurrence of rainfall in Shanghai. The result suggests the importance of high-frequency variability in affecting seasonal rainfall anomalies.

Significant Enhancement in Atmospheric Biweekly Disturbance over Northeast Asia during the Recent Warming Hiatus

Based on daily 500-hPa geopotential height from ERA-Interim reanalysis data, this study analyzed the day-to-day circulation variance in cold season （October-March） by composite and correlation analysis. Two same-length time periods were compared, namely, the hiatus period （1999 2013） and the rapid warming period （1984-1998）. Spectral analysis revealed that over the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the most outstanding peak in the daily 500-hPa geopotential height variance was of quasi-biweekly timescale （about 10-20 days）, accounting for about 32% of the total variance. During the warming hiatus, quasi- biweekly disturbance （QBD） changed remarkably in Northeast Asia. On average, within the domain 42°- 50°N, 128°-142°E, the QBD variance changed from 1860 m2 in the rapid warming period to 2475 m2 in the hiatus period, increasing by about 33% and statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Lead-lag analysis showed that the QBD signal could be traced back by about 14 days, with an origin around the Ural Mountains. Then, the signal developed and propogated southeastward, with its location about 10 days prior to its peak in West Siberia, and about 6 days prior to its peak in the Sayan Mountains, and finally moving to Northeast Asia. By comparing the propagation process between the two periods, we found that the propagation paths were basically the same, but there were evident differences in the intensity of the signals. The intensification of QBD may have been related to the increased energy conversion from mean flow to QBD transients. The frequency of low-temperature extremes in negative QBD phases was much higher than under normal conditions or in positive phases. Associated with the enhanced QBD, the probability of extreme low temperature increased from 19% during the rapid warming period to 27% during the warming hiatus.