This study assessed the contribution of climate projections to improving rainfall information for cocoa crops in the central and southern regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Particular attention was paid to fourteen local...This study assessed the contribution of climate projections to improving rainfall information for cocoa crops in the central and southern regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Particular attention was paid to fourteen localities in these two climatic zones. Simulation data were obtained from the CORDEX ensemble and observation data from CHIRPS. They cover the period 1991-2005 for the reference period and the future period from 2021 to 2050 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study was based on the water requirements necessary during the critical phase of the cocoa tree (the flowering phase) for a good yield from the cocoa production chain on the one hand, and on a selection of three climate indices CDD, CWD and r95PTOT to study their spatio-temporal changes over two future periods 2021-2035 (near future) and 2036-2050 (medium-term) on the other. These climatic indices influence cocoa cultivation and their use in studies of climatic impacts on agriculture is of prime importance. The analysis of their spatio-temporal changes in this work also contributes to providing climate services based on rainfall, to which cocoa crops are highly sensitive. Our results show that the CDD and CWD indices vary from one region to another depending on latitude. For the fourteen localities studied, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase between now and 2050, while the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) could decrease over the period 2021-2035 and then increase over the period 2036-2050. The localities of Tabou, Aboisso and San-Pedro record high numbers of CDD index and CWD index for both projection scenarios. In comparison with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, these results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios are having an impact on cocoa growing in Côte d’Ivoire.展开更多
利用全球气候模式BCC_CSM1.1(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1),耦合区域气候模式Reg CM4(Regional Climate Model version 4)输出的1961-1990年(基准时段)气候模拟数据,并根据同期实测资料,确定模拟值和实测...利用全球气候模式BCC_CSM1.1(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1),耦合区域气候模式Reg CM4(Regional Climate Model version 4)输出的1961-1990年(基准时段)气候模拟数据,并根据同期实测资料,确定模拟值和实测值之间的非线性传递函数与方差订正参数,构建气候模拟数据的误差订正模型。利用1991-2005年(验证时段)模拟数据与实测资料验证该模型的有效性,并对RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)情景下2021-2050年(未来时段)气候模拟数据进行订正,同时通过潜力衰减方法预估未来江苏冬小麦气候生产潜力格局。结果表明:将气候模拟数据订正方法应用到作物气候生产潜力预估是有效的。以均值传递函数和方差信息建立的模型可以较好订正江苏逐日气候模拟数据。订正后的秋冬季气温、辐射量、蒸散量和冬春季降水量模拟偏差明显减小。在此基础上研究发现,冬小麦的成熟期在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下介于153~175和153~174,较基准时段均明显提前。两种情景下冬小麦气候生产潜力分别介于10335~14368kg·hm^(-2)和9991~13708kg·hm^(-2),较基准时段呈下降趋势。其变异系数分别介于7.6%~14.6%和7.5%~13.6%,较基准时段呈增大趋势,表明江苏冬小麦气候生产潜力总体趋于不稳定。未来时段,徐州中北部、连云港东北部、宿迁西部以及盐城东南部冬小麦在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下可以保持相对较高的生产潜力(≥12501kg·hm^(-2)),该省应确保这些地区的冬小麦种植用地。研究建议,作物气候生产潜力预估应考虑利用研究区实测资料对气候模拟数据进行订正,以提高预估可信度。展开更多
文摘This study assessed the contribution of climate projections to improving rainfall information for cocoa crops in the central and southern regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Particular attention was paid to fourteen localities in these two climatic zones. Simulation data were obtained from the CORDEX ensemble and observation data from CHIRPS. They cover the period 1991-2005 for the reference period and the future period from 2021 to 2050 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study was based on the water requirements necessary during the critical phase of the cocoa tree (the flowering phase) for a good yield from the cocoa production chain on the one hand, and on a selection of three climate indices CDD, CWD and r95PTOT to study their spatio-temporal changes over two future periods 2021-2035 (near future) and 2036-2050 (medium-term) on the other. These climatic indices influence cocoa cultivation and their use in studies of climatic impacts on agriculture is of prime importance. The analysis of their spatio-temporal changes in this work also contributes to providing climate services based on rainfall, to which cocoa crops are highly sensitive. Our results show that the CDD and CWD indices vary from one region to another depending on latitude. For the fourteen localities studied, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase between now and 2050, while the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) could decrease over the period 2021-2035 and then increase over the period 2036-2050. The localities of Tabou, Aboisso and San-Pedro record high numbers of CDD index and CWD index for both projection scenarios. In comparison with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, these results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios are having an impact on cocoa growing in Côte d’Ivoire.
文摘利用全球气候模式BCC_CSM1.1(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1),耦合区域气候模式Reg CM4(Regional Climate Model version 4)输出的1961-1990年(基准时段)气候模拟数据,并根据同期实测资料,确定模拟值和实测值之间的非线性传递函数与方差订正参数,构建气候模拟数据的误差订正模型。利用1991-2005年(验证时段)模拟数据与实测资料验证该模型的有效性,并对RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)情景下2021-2050年(未来时段)气候模拟数据进行订正,同时通过潜力衰减方法预估未来江苏冬小麦气候生产潜力格局。结果表明:将气候模拟数据订正方法应用到作物气候生产潜力预估是有效的。以均值传递函数和方差信息建立的模型可以较好订正江苏逐日气候模拟数据。订正后的秋冬季气温、辐射量、蒸散量和冬春季降水量模拟偏差明显减小。在此基础上研究发现,冬小麦的成熟期在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下介于153~175和153~174,较基准时段均明显提前。两种情景下冬小麦气候生产潜力分别介于10335~14368kg·hm^(-2)和9991~13708kg·hm^(-2),较基准时段呈下降趋势。其变异系数分别介于7.6%~14.6%和7.5%~13.6%,较基准时段呈增大趋势,表明江苏冬小麦气候生产潜力总体趋于不稳定。未来时段,徐州中北部、连云港东北部、宿迁西部以及盐城东南部冬小麦在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下可以保持相对较高的生产潜力(≥12501kg·hm^(-2)),该省应确保这些地区的冬小麦种植用地。研究建议,作物气候生产潜力预估应考虑利用研究区实测资料对气候模拟数据进行订正,以提高预估可信度。
