A comparison of model choice strategies for logistic regression

Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.

Two-Staged Method for Ice Channel Identification Based on Image Segmentation and Corner Point Regression

Identification of the ice channel is the basic technology for developing intelligent ships in ice-covered waters,which is important to ensure the safety and economy of navigation.In the Arctic,merchant ships with low ice class often navigate in channels opened up by icebreakers.Navigation in the ice channel often depends on good maneuverability skills and abundant experience from the captain to a large extent.The ship may get stuck if steered into ice fields off the channel.Under this circumstance,it is very important to study how to identify the boundary lines of ice channels with a reliable method.In this paper,a two-staged ice channel identification method is developed based on image segmentation and corner point regression.The first stage employs the image segmentation method to extract channel regions.In the second stage,an intelligent corner regression network is proposed to extract the channel boundary lines from the channel region.A non-intelligent angle-based filtering and clustering method is proposed and compared with corner point regression network.The training and evaluation of the segmentation method and corner regression network are carried out on the synthetic and real ice channel dataset.The evaluation results show that the accuracy of the method using the corner point regression network in the second stage is achieved as high as 73.33%on the synthetic ice channel dataset and 70.66%on the real ice channel dataset,and the processing speed can reach up to 14.58frames per second.

Non-crossing Quantile Regression Neural Network as a Calibration Tool for Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.

A regression approach for seismic first-break picking

The picking efficiency of seismic first breaks(FBs)has been greatly accelerated by deep learning(DL)technology.However,the picking accuracy and efficiency of DL methods still face huge challenges in low signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)situations.To address this issue,we propose a regression approach to pick FBs based on bidirectional long short-term memory(Bi LSTM)neural network by learning the implicit Eikonal equation of 3D inhomogeneous media with rugged topography in the target region.We employ a regressive model that represents the relationships among the elevation of shots,offset and the elevation of receivers with their seismic traveltime to predict the unknown FBs,from common-shot gathers with sparsely distributed traces.Different from image segmentation methods which automatically extract image features and classify FBs from seismic data,the proposed method can learn the inner relationship between field geometry and FBs.In addition,the predicted results by the regressive model are continuous values of FBs rather than the discrete ones of the binary distribution.The picking results of synthetic data shows that the proposed method has low dependence on label data,and can obtain reliable and similar predicted results using two types of label data with large differences.The picking results of9380 shots for 3D seismic data generated by vibroseis indicate that the proposed method can still accurately predict FBs in low SNR data.The subsequent stacked profiles further illustrate the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed method.The results of model data and field seismic data demonstrate that the proposed regression method is a robust first-break picker with high potential for field application.

Regression Method for Rail Fastener Tightness Based on Center-Line Projection Distance Feature and Neural Network

In the railway system,fasteners have the functions of damping,maintaining the track distance,and adjusting the track level.Therefore,routine maintenance and inspection of fasteners are important to ensure the safe operation of track lines.Currently,assessment methods for fastener tightness include manual observation,acoustic wave detection,and image detection.There are limitations such as low accuracy and efficiency,easy interference and misjudgment,and a lack of accurate,stable,and fast detection methods.Aiming at the small deformation characteristics and large elastic change of fasteners from full loosening to full tightening,this study proposes high-precision surface-structured light technology for fastener detection and fastener deformation feature extraction based on the center-line projection distance and a fastener tightness regression method based on neural networks.First,the method uses a 3D camera to obtain a fastener point cloud and then segments the elastic rod area based on the iterative closest point algorithm registration.Principal component analysis is used to calculate the normal vector of the segmented elastic rod surface and extract the point on the centerline of the elastic rod.The point is projected onto the upper surface of the bolt to calculate the projection distance.Subsequently,the mapping relationship between the projection distance sequence and fastener tightness is established,and the influence of each parameter on the fastener tightness prediction is analyzed.Finally,by setting up a fastener detection scene in the track experimental base,collecting data,and completing the algorithm verification,the results showed that the deviation between the fastener tightness regression value obtained after the algorithm processing and the actual measured value RMSE was 0.2196 mm,which significantly improved the effect compared with other tightness detection methods,and realized an effective fastener tightness regression.

Operational optimization of copper flotation process based on the weighted Gaussian process regression and index-oriented adaptive differential evolution algorithm

Concentrate copper grade(CCG)is one of the important production indicators of copper flotation processes,and keeping the CCG at the set value is of great significance to the economic benefit of copper flotation industrial processes.This paper addresses the fluctuation problem of CCG through an operational optimization method.Firstly,a density-based affinity propagationalgorithm is proposed so that more ideal working condition categories can be obtained for the complex raw ore properties.Next,a Bayesian network(BN)is applied to explore the relationship between the operational variables and the CCG.Based on the analysis results of BN,a weighted Gaussian process regression model is constructed to predict the CCG that a higher prediction accuracy can be obtained.To ensure the predicted CCG is close to the set value with a smaller magnitude of the operation adjustments and a smaller uncertainty of the prediction results,an index-oriented adaptive differential evolution(IOADE)algorithm is proposed,and the convergence performance of IOADE is superior to the traditional differential evolution and adaptive differential evolution methods.Finally,the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods are verified by the experiments on a copper flotation industrial process.

Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression in Assessing Dengue Fever Spread Factors in Yunnan Border Regions

Objective This study employs the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)model to assess the impact of meteorological elements and imported cases on dengue fever outbreaks,emphasizing the spatial-temporal variability of these factors in border regions.Methods We conducted a descriptive analysis of dengue fever’s temporal-spatial distribution in Yunnan border areas.Utilizing annual data from 2013 to 2019,with each county in the Yunnan border serving as a spatial unit,we constructed a GTWR model to investigate the determinants of dengue fever and their spatio-temporal heterogeneity in this region.Results The GTWR model,proving more effective than Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)analysis,identified significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in factors influencing dengue fever’s spread along the Yunnan border.Notably,the GTWR model revealed a substantial variation in the relationship between indigenous dengue fever incidence,meteorological variables,and imported cases across different counties.Conclusion In the Yunnan border areas,local dengue incidence is affected by temperature,humidity,precipitation,wind speed,and imported cases,with these factors’influence exhibiting notable spatial and temporal variation.

Nuclear charge radius predictions by kernel ridge regression with odd-even effects

The extended kernel ridge regression(EKRR)method with odd-even effects was adopted to improve the description of the nuclear charge radius using five commonly used nuclear models.These are:(i)the isospin-dependent A^(1∕3) formula,(ii)relativistic continuum Hartree-Bogoliubov(RCHB)theory,(iii)Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov(HFB)model HFB25,(iv)the Weizsacker-Skyrme(WS)model WS*,and(v)HFB25*model.In the last two models,the charge radii were calculated using a five-parameter formula with the nuclear shell corrections and deformations obtained from the WS and HFB25 models,respectively.For each model,the resultant root-mean-square deviation for the 1014 nuclei with proton number Z≥8 can be significantly reduced to 0.009-0.013 fm after considering the modification with the EKRR method.The best among them was the RCHB model,with a root-mean-square deviation of 0.0092 fm.The extrapolation abilities of the KRR and EKRR methods for the neutron-rich region were examined,and it was found that after considering the odd-even effects,the extrapolation power was improved compared with that of the original KRR method.The strong odd-even staggering of nuclear charge radii of Ca and Cu isotopes and the abrupt kinks across the neutron N=126 and 82 shell closures were also calculated and could be reproduced quite well by calculations using the EKRR method.

Prediction of Ground Vibration Induced by Rock Blasting Based on Optimized Support Vector Regression Models

Accurately estimating blasting vibration during rock blasting is the foundation of blasting vibration management.In this study,Tuna Swarm Optimization(TSO),Whale Optimization Algorithm(WOA),and Cuckoo Search(CS)were used to optimize two hyperparameters in support vector regression(SVR).Based on these methods,three hybrid models to predict peak particle velocity(PPV)for bench blasting were developed.Eighty-eight samples were collected to establish the PPV database,eight initial blasting parameters were chosen as input parameters for the predictionmodel,and the PPV was the output parameter.As predictive performance evaluation indicators,the coefficient of determination(R2),rootmean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and a10-index were selected.The normalizedmutual information value is then used to evaluate the impact of various input parameters on the PPV prediction outcomes.According to the research findings,TSO,WOA,and CS can all enhance the predictive performance of the SVR model.The TSO-SVR model provides the most accurate predictions.The performances of the optimized hybrid SVR models are superior to the unoptimized traditional prediction model.The maximum charge per delay impacts the PPV prediction value the most.

Incorporating Lasso Regression to Physics-Informed Neural Network for Inverse PDE Problem

Partial Differential Equation(PDE)is among the most fundamental tools employed to model dynamic systems.Existing PDE modeling methods are typically derived from established knowledge and known phenomena,which are time-consuming and labor-intensive.Recently,discovering governing PDEs from collected actual data via Physics Informed Neural Networks(PINNs)provides a more efficient way to analyze fresh dynamic systems and establish PEDmodels.This study proposes Sequentially Threshold Least Squares-Lasso(STLasso),a module constructed by incorporating Lasso regression into the Sequentially Threshold Least Squares(STLS)algorithm,which can complete sparse regression of PDE coefficients with the constraints of l0 norm.It further introduces PINN-STLasso,a physics informed neural network combined with Lasso sparse regression,able to find underlying PDEs from data with reduced data requirements and better interpretability.In addition,this research conducts experiments on canonical inverse PDE problems and compares the results to several recent methods.The results demonstrated that the proposed PINN-STLasso outperforms other methods,achieving lower error rates even with less data.

Performance Enhancement of XML Parsing Using Regression and Parallelism

The Extensible Markup Language(XML)files,widely used for storing and exchanging information on the web require efficient parsing mechanisms to improve the performance of the applications.With the existing Document Object Model(DOM)based parsing,the performance degrades due to sequential processing and large memory requirements,thereby requiring an efficient XML parser to mitigate these issues.In this paper,we propose a Parallel XML Tree Generator(PXTG)algorithm for accelerating the parsing of XML files and a Regression-based XML Parsing Framework(RXPF)that analyzes and predicts performance through profiling,regression,and code generation for efficient parsing.The PXTG algorithm is based on dividing the XML file into n parts and producing n trees in parallel.The profiling phase of the RXPF framework produces a dataset by measuring the performance of various parsing models including StAX,SAX,DOM,JDOM,and PXTG on different cores by using multiple file sizes.The regression phase produces the prediction model,based on which the final code for efficient parsing of XML files is produced through the code generation phase.The RXPF framework has shown a significant improvement in performance varying from 9.54%to 32.34%over other existing models used for parsing XML files.

Integration of Multiple Spectral Data via a Logistic Regression Algorithm for Detection of Crop Residue Burned Areas:A Case Study of Songnen Plain,Northeast China

The burning of crop residues in fields is a significant global biomass burning activity which is a key element of the terrestrial carbon cycle,and an important source of atmospheric trace gasses and aerosols.Accurate estimation of cropland burned area is both crucial and challenging,especially for the small and fragmented burned scars in China.Here we developed an automated burned area mapping algorithm that was implemented using Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument(MSI)data and its effectiveness was tested taking Songnen Plain,Northeast China as a case using satellite image of 2020.We employed a logistic regression method for integrating multiple spectral data into a synthetic indicator,and compared the results with manually interpreted burned area reference maps and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)MCD64A1 burned area product.The overall accuracy of the single variable logistic regression was 77.38%to 86.90%and 73.47%to 97.14%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively.In comparison,the accuracy of the burned area map was improved to 87.14%and 98.33%for the 52TCQ and 51TYM cases,respectively by multiple variable logistic regression of Sentind-2 images.The balance of omission error and commission error was also improved.The integration of multiple spectral data combined with a logistic regression method proves to be effective for burned area detection,offering a highly automated process with an automatic threshold determination mechanism.This method exhibits excellent extensibility and flexibility taking the image tile as the operating unit.It is suitable for burned area detection at a regional scale and can also be implemented with other satellite data.

Smart Healthcare Activity Recognition Using Statistical Regression and Intelligent Learning

In this present time,Human Activity Recognition(HAR)has been of considerable aid in the case of health monitoring and recovery.The exploitation of machine learning with an intelligent agent in the area of health informatics gathered using HAR augments the decision-making quality and significance.Although many research works conducted on Smart Healthcare Monitoring,there remain a certain number of pitfalls such as time,overhead,and falsification involved during analysis.Therefore,this paper proposes a Statistical Partial Regression and Support Vector Intelligent Agent Learning(SPR-SVIAL)for Smart Healthcare Monitoring.At first,the Statistical Partial Regression Feature Extraction model is used for data preprocessing along with the dimensionality-reduced features extraction process.Here,the input dataset the continuous beat-to-beat heart data,triaxial accelerometer data,and psychological characteristics were acquired from IoT wearable devices.To attain highly accurate Smart Healthcare Monitoring with less time,Partial Least Square helps extract the dimensionality-reduced features.After that,with these resulting features,SVIAL is proposed for Smart Healthcare Monitoring with the help of Machine Learning and Intelligent Agents to minimize both analysis falsification and overhead.Experimental evaluation is carried out for factors such as time,overhead,and false positive rate accuracy concerning several instances.The quantitatively analyzed results indicate the better performance of our proposed SPR-SVIAL method when compared with two state-of-the-art methods.

Nonparametric Statistical Feature Scaling Based Quadratic Regressive Convolution Deep Neural Network for Software Fault Prediction

The development of defect prediction plays a significant role in improving software quality. Such predictions are used to identify defective modules before the testing and to minimize the time and cost. The software with defects negatively impacts operational costs and finally affects customer satisfaction. Numerous approaches exist to predict software defects. However, the timely and accurate software bugs are the major challenging issues. To improve the timely and accurate software defect prediction, a novel technique called Nonparametric Statistical feature scaled QuAdratic regressive convolution Deep nEural Network (SQADEN) is introduced. The proposed SQADEN technique mainly includes two major processes namely metric or feature selection and classification. First, the SQADEN uses the nonparametric statistical Torgerson–Gower scaling technique for identifying the relevant software metrics by measuring the similarity using the dice coefficient. The feature selection process is used to minimize the time complexity of software fault prediction. With the selected metrics, software fault perdition with the help of the Quadratic Censored regressive convolution deep neural network-based classification. The deep learning classifier analyzes the training and testing samples using the contingency correlation coefficient. The softstep activation function is used to provide the final fault prediction results. To minimize the error, the Nelder–Mead method is applied to solve non-linear least-squares problems. Finally, accurate classification results with a minimum error are obtained at the output layer. Experimental evaluation is carried out with different quantitative metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F-measure, and time complexity. The analyzed results demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed SQADEN technique with maximum accuracy, sensitivity and specificity by 3%, 3%, 2% and 3% and minimum time and space by 13% and 15% when compared with the two state-of-the-art methods.

Composition Analysis and Identification of Ancient Glass Products Based on L1 Regularization Logistic Regression

In view of the composition analysis and identification of ancient glass products, L1 regularization, K-Means cluster analysis, elbow rule and other methods were comprehensively used to build logical regression, cluster analysis, hyper-parameter test and other models, and SPSS, Python and other tools were used to obtain the classification rules of glass products under different fluxes, sub classification under different chemical compositions, hyper-parameter K value test and rationality analysis. Research can provide theoretical support for the protection and restoration of ancient glass relics.

Optimization of Generator Based on Gaussian Process Regression Model with Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search

The noise that comes from finite element simulation often causes the model to fall into the local optimal solution and over fitting during optimization of generator.Thus,this paper proposes a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)model based on Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search(CLLBS)to optimize the design of the generator,which can filter the noise in the data and search for global optimization by combining the Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search method.Taking the efficiency optimization of 15 kW Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor as an example.Firstly,this method uses the elementary effect analysis to choose the sensitive variables,combining the evolutionary algorithm to design the super Latin cube sampling plan;Then the generator-converter system is simulated by establishing a co-simulation platform to obtain data.A Gaussian process regression model combing the method of the conditional likelihood lower bound search is established,which combined the chi-square test to optimize the accuracy of the model globally.Secondly,after the model reaches the accuracy,the Pareto frontier is obtained through the NSGA-II algorithm by considering the maximum output torque as a constraint.Last,the constrained optimization is transformed into an unconstrained optimizing problem by introducing maximum constrained improvement expectation(CEI)optimization method based on the re-interpolation model,which cross-validated the optimization results of the Gaussian process regression model.The above method increase the efficiency of generator by 0.76%and 0.5%respectively;And this method can be used for rapid modeling and multi-objective optimization of generator systems.

State of health prediction for lithium-ion batteries based on ensemble Gaussian process regression

The performance of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs)gradually declines over time,making it critical to predict the battery’s state of health(SOH)in real-time.This paper presents a model that incorporates health indicators and ensemble Gaussian process regression(EGPR)to predict the SOH of LIBs.Firstly,the degradation process of an LIB is analyzed through indirect health indicators(HIs)derived from voltage and temperature during discharge.Next,the parameters in the EGPR model are optimized using the gannet optimization algorithm(GOA),and the EGPR is employed to estimate the SOH of LIBs.Finally,the proposed model is tested under various experimental scenarios and compared with other machine learning models.The effectiveness of EGPR model is demonstrated using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA)LIB.The root mean square error(RMSE)is maintained within 0.20%,and the mean absolute error(MAE)is below 0.16%,illustrating the proposed approach’s excellent predictive accuracy and wide applicability.

Nonparametric Feature Screening via the Variance of the Regression Function

This article develops a procedure for screening variables, in ultra high-di- mensional settings, based on their predictive significance. This is achieved by ranking the variables according to the variance of their respective marginal regression functions (RV-SIS). We show that, under some mild technical conditions, the RV-SIS possesses a sure screening property, which is defined by Fan and Lv (2008). Numerical comparisons suggest that RV-SIS has competitive performance compared to other screening procedures, and outperforms them in many different model settings.

Predicting Purchasing Behavior on E-Commerce Platforms: A Regression Model Approach for Understanding User Features that Lead to Purchasing

This research introduces a novel approach to improve and optimize the predictive capacity of consumer purchase behaviors on e-commerce platforms. This study presented an introduction to the fundamental concepts of the logistic regression algorithm. In addition, it analyzed user data obtained from an e-commerce platform. The original data were preprocessed, and a consumer purchase prediction model was developed for the e-commerce platform using the logistic regression method. The comparison study used the classic random forest approach, further enhanced by including the K-fold cross-validation method. Evaluation of the accuracy of the model’s classification was conducted using performance indicators that included the accuracy rate, the precision rate, the recall rate, and the F1 score. A visual examination determined the significance of the findings. The findings suggest that employing the logistic regression algorithm to forecast customer purchase behaviors on e-commerce platforms can improve the efficacy of the approach and yield more accurate predictions. This study serves as a valuable resource for improving the precision of forecasting customers’ purchase behaviors on e-commerce platforms. It has significant practical implications for optimizing the operational efficiency of e-commerce platforms.

Country-based modelling of COVID-19 case fatality rate:A multiple regression analysis

BACKGROUND The spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 outbreak worldwide has caused concern regarding the mortality rate caused by the infection.The determinants of mortality on a global scale cannot be fully understood due to lack of information.AIM To identify key factors that may explain the variability in case lethality across countries.METHODS We identified 21 Potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)case fatality rate for all the countries with available data.We examined univariate relationships of each variable with case fatality rate(CFR),and all independent variables to identify candidate variables for our final multiple model.Multiple regression analysis technique was used to assess the strength of relationship.RESULTS The mean of COVID-19 mortality was 1.52±1.72%.There was a statistically significant inverse correlation between health expenditure,and number of computed tomography scanners per 1 million with CFR,and significant direct correlation was found between literacy,and air pollution with CFR.This final model can predict approximately 97%of the changes in CFR.CONCLUSION The current study recommends some new predictors explaining affect mortality rate.Thus,it could help decision-makers develop health policies to fight COVID-19.