Statistical Modeling of Gate Capacitance Variations Induced by Random Dopants in Nanometer MOSFETs Reserving Correlations

We consider intrinsic gate capacitance variations due to random dopants in the nanometer metal oxide semi- conductor field effect transistor （MOSFET） channel. The variations of total gate capacitance and gate transcapacitances are investigated and the strong correlations between the trans-capacitance variations are discovered. A simple statistical model is proposed for accurately capturing total gate capacitance variability based on the correlations. The model fits very well with the Monte Carlo simulations and the average errors are -0.033% for n-type metal-oxide semiconductor and -0.012% for p-type metal-oxide semiconductor, respectively. Our simulation studies also indicate that, owing to these correlations, the total gate capacitance variability will not dominate in gate capacitance variations.

Molecular Environment of Reserving Information (M.E.R.I. Technology)

The idea of application from DNA information organization for providing the next generation super-computers has been proposed by lessons learned from nature. Thus, molecular environment of reserving information was considered as succeeding generation of a mother-board project containing some subcategories with various applications. MERI, constructed based on the binary coding system using DNA synthesizer machine, enables retrievable reading of molecular structures using DNA sequencer machine. It has high capacity for reservation of information about 1.212 × 1011 Kb/cm2 with long-term stability. It can be used in various fields of science and technology regarding its high capacity, small size and safety measures.

THE FACTORS AND TREATMENT OF LOCAL RECURRENCE AFTER RADICAL RESECTION RESERVING THE ANUS IN THE PATIENTS WITH RECTAL CANCER

Of seventy-one patients with rectal cancer after radical resection retaining the anus, 15 developed local recurrence with a recurrence rate of 21.1%. Local recurrence was correlated with improper safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end. There was statistical significant difference between 3 cm or more and 2 cm or less. The local recurrence was also related to the pathologic stage, histologic differentiation and implant of free cancer cells. It is suggested that the surgical indication of saving the anus be strict and without stretching, the safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end should not be less than 2 cm in early rectal cancer and not less than 4 cm in advanced lesions. During the operation, no touching tumor technique, thorough rinsing of the peritoneal cavity and pre- or post-operative radiotherapy are important for prevention of local recurrence. Early local recurrent rectal cancer can be detected by periodic examinations.

Peat properties of a tropical forest reserve adjacent to a fire-break canal

Tropical peat comprises decomposed dead plant material and acts like a sponge to absorb water,making it fully saturated.However,drought periods dry it readily and increases its vulnerability to fire.Peat fires emit greenhouse gases and particles contributing to haze,and prevention by constructing fire-break canals to reduce fire spread into forest reserves is crucial.This paper aims to determine peat physical and chemical properties near a fire-break canal at different fire frequency areas.Peat sampling was conducted at two forest reserves in Malaysia which represent low fire frequency and high fire frequency areas.The results show that peat properties were not affected by the construction of a fire-break canal,however lignin and cellulose content increased significantly from the distance of the canal in both areas.The study concluded that fire frequency did not significantly influence peat properties except for porosity.The higher fibre content in the high frequency area did not influence moisture content nor the ability to regain moisture.Thus,fire frequency might contribute differently to changes in physical and chemical properties,hence management efforts to construct fire-break canals and restoration efforts should protect peatlands from further degradation.These findings will benefit future management and planning for forest reserves.

Swelling pressure evolution characterization of strong expansive soil considering the influence of reserved expansion deformation

Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective structure to experience bulging failure due to excessive swelling pressure. To investigate the swelling pressure properties of expansive soil, the constant volume test was employed to study the influence of water content and reserved expansion deformation on the characteristics of swelling pressure in strong expansive soils, and also to explore the evolution mechanism of the swelling pressure. The findings demonstrate that the swelling pressure-time curve can be classified into swelling pressure-time softening and swelling pressure-time stability type. The swelling pressuretime curve of the specimen with low water content is the swelling pressure-time softening type, and the softening level will be weakened with increasing reserved expansion deformation. Besides, the maximum swelling pressure Psmax decreases with increasing water content and reserved expansion deformation, especially for expansion ratio η from 24% to 37%. The reserved deformation has little effect on reducing Psmax when it is beyond 7% of the expansion rate. The specimen with low water content has a more homogeneous structure due to the significant expansion-filling effect, and the fracture and reorganization of the aggregates in the specimens with low water content cause the swelling pressure-time softening behavior. In addition, the proposed swelling pressure-time curve prediction model has a good prediction on the test results. If necessary, a deformation space of about 7% expansion rate is recommended to be reserved in the engineering to reduce the swelling pressure except for keeping a stable water content.

Changes in renal function and morphological variations of kidney diseases in rheumatoid arthritis patients

Objective:Rheumatoid nephropathy is one of the most severe extra-articular manifestations of rheumatoid arthritis(RA)associated with a very unfavorable prognosis.This study aimed to identify changes in renal function and morphological variations of kidney diseases in RA patients.Methods:The study enrolled patients(126 patients)between 18 and 55 years of age with a confirmed active RA of more than 12 months.Each patient underwent the following range of laboratory and instrumental research methods:general clinical analysis of blood and urine,performing urinalysis according to Nechiporenko method;determining daily proteinuria;determining the blood content of glucose,urea,creatinine,uric acid,total bilirubin,liver transaminase level,ionogram,lipidogram,and coagulogram;determining the blood content of rheumatoid factor,anti-streptolysin O,and C-reactive protein;and X-ray of the joints of hands and feet.Renal function was examined by estimating glomerular filtration rate,tubular reabsorption index,and renal functional reserve.For studying the morphological changes in the kidneys under ultrasound examination,renal biopsy was performed in 31 patients with RA with urinary syndrome(proteinuria more than 0.3 g per day and hematuria).Results:Nephropathy in RA is characterized by impaired renal function and manifested by an increased blood creatinine and a decrease in glomerular filtration rate and renal functional reserve.Among morphological variations of nephropathy at RA,mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis prevails,accounting for 48.4%of patients.Other disorders include the secondary amyloidosis(29.0%of patients),tubulointerstitial nephritis(16.1%),membranous glomerulonephritis(3.2%),and focal-segmental glomerulosclerosis(3.2%).Conclusion:Kidney damage is a common systemic manifestation of RA with a long and active course,a major nephropathy trigger.

Deferred revascularization in diabetic patient according to combined invasive functional and intravascular imaging data:A case report

BACKGROUND Invasive functional evaluation by fractional flow reserve(FFR)is considered as a gold standard for the evaluation of intermediate coronary stenosis.However,in patients with diabetes due to accelerated progression of atherosclerosis the outcome may be worse even in the presence of negative functional testing.CASE SUMMARY We present a case of 55-year-old male diabetic patient who was admitted for chest pain.Diagnostic coronary angiography disclosed 2 intermediate stenoses of the obtuse marginal branch with no evidence of restenosis on previously implanted stent.Patient undergone invasive functional testing of intermediate lesion with preserved FFR(0.88),low coronary flow reserve(1.2)and very high index of microvascular resistance(84).Due to discrepancy in invasive functional parameters,intravascular imaging with optical coherence tomography showed fibrotic stenoses without signs of thin-sup fibroatheroma.Because of the preserved FFR and no signs of vulnerable plaque,the interventional procedure was deferred and the patient continued with optimal medications.CONCLUSION Combined functional and anatomic imaging of intermediate coronary stenosis in diabetic patients represent comprehensive contemporary decision pathway in the management of the patients.

Efficacy of intraovarian autologous platelet-rich plasma administration in women with low ovarian reserve: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective:To conduct a systematic examination and meta-analysis of the most reliable data from experimental studies evaluating the efficacy of autologous platelet-rich plasma(PRP)on low ovarian reserve.Methods:A comprehensive search was performed utilizing pertinent search terms across electronic databases,including PubMed,Cochrane,and Google Scholar.We included studies that assigned infertile women with low ovarian reserve in experimental studies.Ovarian reserve parameters were measured before and after PRP injection into ovaries.The data of each study was retrieved and subsequently compiled.Results:Of 301 articles collected and reviewed,six studies were finally included in the meta-analysis.Following PRP injection,infertile women showed a non-significant increase in anti-Mullerian hormone(AMH)level(MD=0.10;95%CI-0.04,0.23),a significant increase in antral follicular count(AFC)(MD=1.88;95%CI 0.47,3.29),and a non-significant reduction in follicle-stimulating hormone(FSH)level(MD=-0.22;95%CI-8.32,7.87).Conclusions:Autologous PRP may increase AFC,but not AMH.Although it is found beneficial in enhancing ovarian reserve(AFC),further research with strong evidence is still required.

High quality repair of osteochondral defects in rats using the extracellular matrix of antler stem cells

BACKGROUND Cartilage defects are some of the most common causes of arthritis.Cartilage lesions caused by inflammation,trauma or degenerative disease normally result in osteochondral defects.Previous studies have shown that decellularized extracellular matrix(ECM)derived from autologous,allogenic,or xenogeneic mesenchymal stromal cells(MSCs)can effectively restore osteochondral integrity.AIM To determine whether the decellularized ECM of antler reserve mesenchymal cells(RMCs),a xenogeneic material from antler stem cells,is superior to the currently available treatments for osteochondral defects.METHODS We isolated the RMCs from a 60-d-old sika deer antler and cultured them in vitro to 70%confluence;50 mg/mL L-ascorbic acid was then added to the medium to stimulate ECM deposition.Decellularized sheets of adipocyte-derived MSCs(aMSCs)and antlerogenic periosteal cells(another type of antler stem cells)were used as the controls.Three weeks after ascorbic acid stimulation,the ECM sheets were harvested and applied to the osteochondral defects in rat knee joints.RESULTS The defects were successfully repaired by applying the ECM-sheets.The highest quality of repair was achieved in the RMC-ECM group both in vitro(including cell attachment and proliferation),and in vivo(including the simultaneous regeneration of well-vascularized subchondral bone and avascular articular hyaline cartilage integrated with surrounding native tissues).Notably,the antler-stem-cell-derived ECM(xenogeneic)performed better than the aMSC-ECM(allogenic),while the ECM of the active antler stem cells was superior to that of the quiescent antler stem cells.CONCLUSION Decellularized xenogeneic ECM derived from the antler stem cell,particularly the active form(RMC-ECM),can achieve high quality repair/reconstruction of osteochondral defects,suggesting that selection of decellularized ECM for such repair should be focused more on bioactivity rather than kinship.

Association between people’s attitudes towards human-elephant conflict and their locational,demographic,and socio-economic characteristics in Buxa Tiger Reserve and its adjoining area,India

“Human-elephant conflict(HEC)”,the alarming issue,in present day context has attracted the attention of environmentalists and policy makers.The rising conflict between human beings and wild elephants is common in Buxa Tiger Reserve(BTR)and its adjoining area in West Bengal State,India,making the area volatile.People’s attitudes towards elephant conservation activity are very crucial to get rid of HEC,because people’s proximity with wild elephants’habitat can trigger the occurrence of HEC.The aim of this study is to conduct an in-depth investigation about the association of people’s attitudes towards HEC with their locational,demographic,and socio-economic characteristics in BTR and its adjoining area by using Pearson’s bivariate chi-square test and binary logistic regression analysis.BTR is one of the constituent parts of Eastern Doors Elephant Reserve(EDER).We interviewed 500 respondents to understand their perceptions to HEC and investigated their locational,demographic,and socio-economic characteristics including location of village,gender,age,ethnicity,religion,caste,poverty level,education level,primary occupation,secondary occupation,household type,and source of firewood.The results indicate that respondents who are living in enclave forest villages(EFVs),peripheral forest villages(PFVs),corridor village(CVs),or forest and corridor villages(FCVs),mainly males,at the age of 18–48 years old,engaged with agriculture occupation,and living in kancha and mixed houses,have more likelihood to witness HEC.Besides,respondents who are illiterate or at primary education level are more likely to regard elephant as a main problematic animal around their villages and refuse to participate in elephant conservation activity.For the sake of a sustainable environment for both human beings and wildlife,people’s attitudes towards elephants must be friendly in a more prudent way,so that the two communities can live in harmony.

Interaction between catechol-O-methyltransferase Val/Met polymorphism and cognitive reserve for negative symptoms in schizophrenia

BACKGROUND Cognitive reserve(CR)and the catechol-O-methyltransferase(COMT)Val/Met polymorphism are reportedly linked to negative symptoms in schizophrenia.However,the regulatory effect of the COMT genotype on the relationship between CR and negative symptoms is still unexamined.AIM To investigate whether the relationship between CR and negative symptoms could be regulated by the COMT Val/Met polymorphism.METHODS In a cross-sectional study,54 clinically stable patients with schizophrenia underwent assessments for the COMT genotype,CR,and negative symptoms.CR was estimated using scores in the information and similarities subtests of a short form of the Chinese version of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale.RESULTS COMT Met-carriers exhibited fewer negative symptoms than Val homozygotes.In the total sample,significant negative correlations were found between negative symptoms and information,similarities.Associations between information,similarities and negative symptoms were observed in Val homozygotes only,with information and similarities showing interaction effects with the COMT genotype in relation to negative symptoms(information,β=-0.282,95%CI:-0.552 to-0.011,P=0.042;similarities,β=-0.250,95%CI:-0.495 to-0.004,P=0.046).CONCLUSION This study provides initial evidence that the association between negative symptoms and CR is under the regulation of the COMT genotype in schizophrenia.

Clinical application of reserved gastric tube in neuroendoscopic endonasal surgery for pituitary tumor

BACKGROUND The neuroendoscopic approach has the advantages of a clear operative field,convenient tumor removal,and less damage,and is the development direction of modern neurosurgery.At present,transnasal surgery for sphenoidal pituitary tumor is widely used.But it has been found in clinical practice that some patients with this type of surgery may experience post-operative nausea and vomiting and other discomforts.AIM To explore the effect of reserved gastric tube application in the neuroendoscopic endonasal resection of pituitary tumors.METHODS A total of 60 patients who underwent pituitary adenoma resection via the endoscopic endonasal approach were selected and randomly divided into the experimental and control groups,with 30 in each group.Experimental group:After anesthesia,a gastric tube was placed through the mouth under direct vision using a visual laryngoscope,and the fluid accumulated in the oropharynx was suctioned intermittently with low negative pressure throughout the whole process after nasal disinfection,during the operation,and when the patient recovered from anesthesia.Control group:Given the routine intraoperative care,no gastric tube was left.The number of cases of nausea/vomiting/aspiration within 24 h post-operation was counted and compared between the two groups;the scores of pharyngalgia after waking up,6 h post-operation,and 24 h postoperation.The frequency of postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leakage and intracranial infection were compared.The hospitalization days of the two groups were statistically compared.RESULTS The times of postoperative nausea and vomiting in the experimental group were lower than that in the control group,and the difference in the incidence of nausea was statistically significant(P<0.05).After the patient woke up,the scores of sore throat 6 h after the operation and 24 h after operation were lower than those in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).The number of cases of postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leakage and intracranial infection was higher than that of the control group,but there was no statistically significant difference from the control group(P>0.05).The hospitalization days of the experimental group was lower than that of the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Reserving a gastric tube in the endoscopic endonasal resection of pituitary tumors,combined with intraoperative and postoperative gastrointestinal decompression,can effectively reduce the incidence of nausea,reduce the number of vomiting and aspiration in patients,and reduce the complications of sore throat The incidence rate shortened the hospitalization days of the patients.

Many Kinds of Reserved Judgement in No-Data Problem

The reserved judgment can be broadly categorized into three types: Re-Do, Re-Set, and Natural Flowing Case (i.e. step by step in Re-Try). Hori et al. constructed the Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation and demonstrated that system theory can be applied to the possibility of Markov processes, and that decision-making approaches can be applied to sequential Bayes estimation. In this paper, we focus on the Natural Flowing Case within reserved judgment. Here, the possibility of oblique (or principal) factor rotation is considered as a part of the tandem fuzzy system that follows step by step for sequential Bayes estimation. Ultimately, we achieve a significant result whereby the expected utility can be calculated automatically without the need to construct a utility function for reserved judgment. There, this utility in Re-Do can be calculated by the prior utility, and that utility in Re-set does not exist by our research in this paper. Finally, we elucidate the relationship between fuzzy system theory and fuzzy decision theory through an applied example of Bayes-Fuzzy theory. Fuzzy estimation can be applied to only normal making decision, but it is impossible to apply abnormal decision problem. Our Vague, specially Type 2 Vague can be applied to abnormal case, too.

Report for Type 2 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation in No-Data Problem

It is well known that the system (1 + 1) can be unequal to 2, because this system has both observation error and system error. Furthermore, we must provide our mustered service within our cool head and warm heart, where two states of nature are existing upon us. Any system is regarded as the two-dimensional variable error model. On the other hand, we consider that the fuzziness is existing in this system. Though we can usually obtain the fuzzy number from the possibility theory, it is not fuzzy but possibility, because the possibility function is as same as the likelihood function, and we can obtain the possibility measure by the maximal likelihood method (i.e. max product method proposed by Dr. Hideo Tanaka). Therefore, Fuzzy is regarded as the only one case according to Vague, which has both some state of nature in this world and another state of nature in the other world. Here, we can consider that Type 1 Vague Event in other world can be obtained by mapping and translating from Type 1 fuzzy Event in this world. We named this estimation as Type 1 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. When the Vague Events were abnormal (ex. under War), we need to consider that another world could exist around other world. In this case, we call it Type 2 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. Where Hori et al. constructed the stochastic different equation upon Type 1 Vague Events, along with the general following probabilistic introduction method from the single regression model, multi-regression model, AR model, Markov (decision) process, to the stochastic different equation. Furthermore, we showed that the system theory approach is Possibility Markov Process, and that the making decision approach is Sequential Bayes Estimation, too. After all, Type 1 Bays-Fuzzy estimation is the special case in Bayes estimation, because the pareto solutions can exist in two stochastic different equations upon Type 2 Vague Events, after we ignore one equation each other (note that this is Type 1 case), we can obtain both its system solution and its decision solution. Here, it is noted that Type 2 Vague estimation can be applied to the shallow abnormal decision problem with possibility reserved judgement. However, it is very important problem that we can have no idea for possibility reserved judgement under the deepest abnormal envelopment (ex. under War). Expect for this deepest abnormal decision problem, Bayes estimation can completely cover fuzzy estimation. In this paper, we explain our flowing study and further research object forward to this deepest abnormal decision problem.

The Effect of Uterine Artery Occlusion with Tourniquet on Ovarian Reserve during Open Myomectomy at a University Teaching Hospital in Southern Nigeria

Background: The most common surgical treatment for symptomatic uterine fibroids, particularly in women with fertility concerns, is open myomectomy. Given the high vascularity of the uterus, haemorrhage during the procedure is a serious risk that is often mitigated with a uterine tourniquet. Aim and Objectives: To evaluate the effect of uterine artery occlusion with a tourniquet during open myomectomy on ovarian reserve using serial anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) measurements. Materials and Methods: This was a prospective longitudinal study with a quasi-experimental design and a convenient sampling technique. The study enrolled 47 women who had abdominal myomectomy between September 1, 2021, and March 31, 2022, at the University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital. Blood samples were collected before anaesthesia was administered in theatre, on day two, and three months after open abdominal myomectomy for anti-Mullerian hormone assay. The data was collected using a semi-structured proforma, entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and analyzed using SPSS version 25.0 with a 95% confidence interval. Statistical significance level was set at 0.05. Results: The pre-surgery AMH mean value was 1.67 ± 1.44 ng/ml, while the values after using a uterine tourniquet at myomectomy on the second day and three months later were 1.22 ± 1.24 ng/ml and 1.59 ± 1.43 ng/ml, respectively. There was no statistically significant change in AMH levels, and there was no statistically significant relationship between blood loss and tourniquet time and AMH after open abdominal myomectomy. Conclusion: The use of a uterine tourniquet and blood loss during open myomectomy has no effect on ovarian reserve.

Seasonal Abundance and Diversity of Birds of Prey and Owls in Al Wathba Wetland Reserve in Abu Dhabi, UAE

Inland wetlands in Abu Dhabi Emirate are wintering and stopover sites for migratory birds of prey. We conducted long-term regular monitoring surveys in Al Wathba Wetland Reserve (AWWR) from January 1995 to December 2022. Both diurnal and occasionally nocturnal surveys were undertaken to record the migratory raptors and owls in the Wetland Reserve. During the study, a total of 1282 regular monitoring visits were undertaken and 27 species of diurnal raptors and owls representing five families and three orders were detected. These represent 57% of the total species of birds of prey recorded in the UAE. Overall, 63% of all the species that we observed were Accipitriformes followed by 26% Falconiformes and 11% Strigiformes. We found that changes in mean daily temperature have a positive effect on raptor species diversity and abundance in the Wetland Reserve. The species encounter rate was higher in low temperature as compared to high temperature and overall regression equation was statistically significant F (4, 1126) = 8.49), p = 0.00). However, the numbers of raptors did not vary significantly across the years (p = 0.51). Western Marsh-harrier (Circus aeruginosus) and Greater Spotted Eagle (Clanga clanga) were recorded to be the most abundant species in the wetland reserve followed by Common Kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). However, the encounter rate of globally threatened Greater Spotted Eagle was detected to have significantly decreased since 2016. Moreover, 63% of the species detected were uncommon and rarely recorded such as 1) Saker Falcon 2) Lanner Falcon 3) Long-eared Owl & Merlin, which were the rare records from the wetland reserve. Furthermore, 27 years of regular monitoring in the wetland have yielded diverse diurnal raptors and owl fauna (H) = 0.83, (E) = 1.43 (Shannon Diversity Index). The results demonstrate that long-term monitoring surveys in arid environments are essential to determine the trends in the raptor populations and to document rare and globally important species.

Impacts of Human Activities and Season on Species Diversity and Abundance of Butterflies in Mpanga Kipengere Game Reserve and Surrounding Farmlands, Tanzania

Maintaining natural habitats is crucial for the preservation of insects and other species that indicate environmental changes. However, the Mpanga/Kipengere Game Reserve and its surrounding farmlands are facing disturbance due to human activities, which is putting many wildlife species, particularly larger mammals, at risk. To determine the impact of human activities on butterfly species diversity and abundance in the reserve and its surrounding areas, we conducted a study from November 2021 to October 2023. We collected butterfly data using transect walks and baited traps in two habitat types. Our study yielded 2799 butterfly Individuals ranging in 124 species divided into five families habitat, season, and anthropogenic factors are significant environmental variables influencing species diversity and abundance of butterflies. Therefore, it’s important to protect habitat and dry-season water for the conservation of invertebrates such as butterflies. Our study findings provide essential information for ecological monitoring and future assessment of the Mpanga/Kipengere Game Reserve ecosystem health.

Ovarian function in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus:Pathogenesis,drug application and prospective therapies

Systemic lupus erythematosus(SLE)is a chronic autoimmune disease in which multiple organs are damaged that prevails in fertile women.Currently,glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants are widely used to treat SLE patients.However,ovarian dysfunction occurs following the use of these drugs in women with SLE.Here,we summarize recent progress in terms of understanding ovarian injury,the effects of drug application and strategies to improve ovarian function in women with SLE.This review could be helpful to precisely cure SLE in women desiring to have offspring.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecological Quality in Alpine Freshwater Lake Nature Reserves in the Past 20 Years

The Caohai Nature Reserve is one of the three major plateau freshwater lakes in China.Since the 1950s,human activities such as land reclamation and population relocation have greatly damaged Caohai.A rapid evaluation of the spatiotemporal evolution trend of the ecological quality of the Caohai Nature Reserve is significant for the maintenance and construction of the ecosystem in this area.The research is based on the Google Earth Engine(GEE)remote sensing cloud computing platform.Landsat TM/OLI images from May to October in five time periods:2000-2002,2004-2006,2009-2011,2014-2016,and 2019-2021 were obtained to reconstruct the optimal cloud image set by averaging the images in each time period.By constructing four ecological indicators:Greenness(NDVI),Wetness(Wet),Hotness(LST),and Dryness(NDBSI),and using Principal Component Analysis(PCA)method to obtain the Remote Sensing Ecological Index(RSEI)for the corresponding years,the spatiotemporal variation of ecological quality in the Caohai Nature Reserve over 20 years was analyzed.The results indicate:①the mean value of RSEI increased from 0.460 in 2000-2002 to 0.772 in 2019-2021,a 67.83%increase,indicating a significant improvement in the ecological quality of the reserve over the 20 years;②from the perspective of functional zoning of the Caohai Nature Reserve,the ecological quality of the core area showed a degrading trend,while the ecological quality of the buffer zone and experimental zone significantly improved;③with the implementation of ecological restoration projects,the ecological quality of the reserve gradually recovered and improved from 2014 to 2021.The trend of RSEI value changes is well correlated with human interventions,indicating that the PCA-based RSEI model can be effectively used for ecological quality assessment in lake areas.

Stochastic loss reserving using individual information model with over-dispersed Poisson

For stochastic loss reserving,we propose an individual information model(IIM)which accom-modates not only individual/micro data consisting of incurring times,reporting developments,settlement developments as well as payments of individual claims but also heterogeneity among policies.We give over-dispersed Poisson assumption about the moments of reporting developments and payments of every individual claims.Model estimation is conducted under quasi-likelihood theory.Analytic expressions are derived for the expectation and variance of outstanding liabilities,given historical observations.We utilise conditional mean square error of prediction(MSEP)to measure the accuracy of loss reserving and also theoretically prove that when risk portfolio size is large enough,IIM shows a higher prediction accuracy than individ-ual/micro data model(IDM)in predicting the outstanding liabilities,if the heterogeneity indeed influences claims developments and otherwise IIM is asymptotically equivalent to IDM.Some simulations are conducted to investigate the conditional MSEPs for IIM and IDM.A real data analysis is performed basing on real observations in health insurance.