Risk assessment: an approach to control hazards in mines

Accidents and injuries related to work are major occupational health problems in most of the industrialized countries.Traditional approaches to manage workplace safety in mines have mainly focused on job redesign and technical aspects of engineering systems.It is being realized that compliance to rules and regulations of mines is a prerequisite;however,it is not sufficient to achieve further reduction in accident and injury rates in mines.Proactive approaches are necessary to further improve the safety standards in mines.Unsafe conditions and practices in mines lead to a number of accidents,which in turn may cause loss and injury to human lives,damages to property,and loss of production.Hazard identification and risk assessment is an important task for the mining industry which needs to consider all the risk factors at workplaces.Applications of risk management approaches in mines are necessary to identify and quantify potential hazards and to suggest effective solutions.In this paper,the following risk estimation techniques were discussed:(i)DGMS(Directorate General of Mines Safety,India)risk rating criterion,and(ii)a matrix based approach.The proposed tools were demonstrated through an application in an opencast coal mine in India.It was inferred that the risk assessment approach can be used as an effective tool to indentify and control hazards in mines.

Non-Genotoxic Carcinogens.Approaches to Their Risk Assessment

Epidemiological studies support the idea that most human cancers are related to chemicals present in the human environment. In turn, chemicals are believed to cause cancer via either genotoxic or non-genotoxic mechanisms. There were described in literature several simple, rapid and inexpensive short term tests to reasonably predict the genotoxic nature of chemicals but in contrast, there is no reliable test or battery of tests available to predict the carcinogenicity of non-genotoxic compounds and this poses a major problem to their risk assessment. In addition, there are conflictive opinions about risk assessment needs for both classes of carcinogens. Some workers believe that for non-genotoxic carcinogens, thresholds for exposure can be drawn while others do not. In this review, the reasons behind both of these opinions and the present hypotheses about the mechanism of action of non-genotoxic carcinogens are described and analyzed in relation to future needs.

人工智能治理中“基于风险的方法”:理论、实践与反思

以生成式人工智能为代表的新一轮人工智能技术带来了一系列规制挑战,而传统的“基于权利的方法”难以有效因应。“基于风险的方法”主张根据人工智能所带来的不同类型和等级的风险,采取相应的治理措施和方式,平衡技术创新与有效治理的关系。这是一种符合人工智能风险特性和发展规律的治理方法,以风险社会、适应性治理和回应性规制等理论为指引,以风险识别与分析、风险评估与分类、风险控制与监督、风险沟通与参与作为制度构成。在基于风险的人工智能治理实践中,欧盟、美国和中国分别采取“自上而下模式”“自下而上模式”“混合模式”,并取得了初步成效。然而,人工智能治理中“基于风险的方法”也面临批判和质疑,应当构建多元共治的人工智能风险治理体系,并建立动态适应的人工智能风险治理机制,同时搭建开放协作的人工智能风险治理平台。

Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan

Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.

The Mathematical Analysis on the Risk Management Effect of Crop Insurance Plan

As a variant index, variation has an inherent shortcoming that it can only reflect the static fluctuation of the crop. This paper makes complementary analysis about it on the basis of the comment on Miranda＇s approach of β index and goes on to analyze the β index approach under the condition of three kinds of crop insurance plans, β index approach has the advantage that it can dynamically reflect the risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan. At the same insurance level, the smaller the β index is, the better the corresponding risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan is; And vice versa.

生成式人工智能的法律风险及其规制

生成式人工智能技术作为一种“破坏性创新”,在推动技术变革的同时,也因其独特的技术逻辑带来了诸多治理风险。如生成式人工智能巨量化数据的训练模式存在数据侵权风险,基于人类反馈的强化学习模式则可能加剧虚假信息的生成和传播,其技术壁垒又会强化互联网巨头的垄断地位,进而带来一系列风险。而我国现行法律对生成式人工智能的规制虽然形成了初步框架,但仍在宏观和微观方面存在困境,以欧盟和美国的监管措施为镜鉴,我国应当秉持包容审慎的理念,协同多元主体对生成式人工智能进行共商共管,通过“共建”“共治”实现成果“共享”。

“智慧+食品监管”:发展历程、应用现状与未来方向

大食物观为食品产业的未来发展提出了新的需求。随着食品产业的扩大和升级,影响食品安全的因素将变得越来越复杂,因而带来更为艰巨的食品安全风险防控任务。只有保障业态安全,食品产业才能健康和顺利发展。当前,有限的监管资源和力量与食品产业中繁重复杂的监管任务之间的矛盾日益凸显,传统的监管手段和方式难以满足食品产业的高质量发展需求。数据驱动下的计算机科学和智能技术为食品监管提供了技术切入点。在食品产业链中,实时采集各种信息形成“数据智能”,发展食品行业的智慧监管技术,有助于建设规范有序、协同高效的食品产业生态环境,为食品行业高质量发展提供保障。介绍了食品产业中智慧监管从初始到繁荣的发展历程,分析了智能技术在食品全产业链和食品监管体系数字化建设中的应用,指出了以安全为底线,以品质监测、营养分析、风味评估为新导向的食品智慧监管未来发展方向,探讨了食品行业智慧监管面临的机遇和挑战,希望为食品监管的智能化和高质量发展提供技术参考。

Stress and Stroke: Psychological Approach Patients in Middle Hospitalier

Introduction: Human beings are confronted with several trying situations that generate stress. Psychopathological manifestations such as anxiety, anxiety, depression, appear as an imbalance in the personality of individuals. Stroke and its increasing frequency in terms of death but especially morbidity has become one of the leading sources of disability in the world. Its appearance is medically described as caused by vascular risk factors. Our goal was to study the impact of stress on the onset and worsening of a stroke. Methodology: This was the clinical method, the aim of which was to identify any stressful event in the patient’s life and its psychological consequences in order to establish a link between the impact of stress and the stroke;of the semi-directive clinical interview in order to leave the subject a great possibility of expression on the themes associated with our objective then the inferential descriptive method for the evaluation of psychological factors using several scales including The CISS and the STAI. The inclusion criteria were the existence of a stroke, and the existence of a good state of cognitive functions. Results: In our summary analysis, it appears that the stroke would result from chronic stress objectively detected by coping from the CISS and the STAI. The most stressful events on the Holmes and Rahe Scale were;on the family level: the death of a loved one, the illness of a loved one, incessant arguments, family tensions, family violence. On a personal level: illness, sentimental disappointment, abandonment;alcohol, drugs;and finally on the professional level, dismissal and professional conflict. Conclusion: Stress is a psychological factor that increases the occurrence of a stroke, but also constitutes a determining disturbing element in patients with one or more vascular risk factors.

桥小脑角脑膜瘤的显微外科治疗及疗效影响因素分析

目的探讨桥小脑角(CPA)脑膜瘤的显微外科治疗策略,并分析影响手术疗效的因素。方法回顾性分析南京医科大学第一附属医院神经外科2009年5月至2019年4月收治的137例CPA脑膜瘤患者的临床资料。采用Simpson分级评估肿瘤切除程度,以Karnofsky功能状态评分(KPS)评估预后,应用单因素分析探讨影响肿瘤切除程度的因素。结果137例患者中,132例行枕下乙状窦后入路,5例行颞下+乙状窦后入路。SimpsonⅠ~Ⅱ级切除122例(89.1%),Ⅲ级切除11例(8.0%),Ⅳ级切除4例(2.9%)。术后患者均获得随访,随访时间为(72.4±20.8)个月。随访期间,肿瘤复发2例(1.7%),进展1例(6.7%)。末次随访时KPS评分(92.3±13.1)分,高于出院时的(86.9±9.4)分和术前的(75.8±10.3)分(均P<0.001)。单因素分析结果表明,肿瘤的分型(P=0.013)、大小(P=0.023)、瘤周水肿(P=0.005)、瘤周蛛网膜不完整(P=0.030)为影响肿瘤全切的因素。结论经枕下乙状窦后入路可以切除大多数CPA区脑膜瘤。肿瘤体积较小、瘤周蛛网膜界面清晰、无瘤周水肿、非联合型脑膜瘤术中易获得全切。

转型金融:内涵、框架与未来展望

随着应对气候变化和经济低碳转型成为全球共识,各国纷纷提出碳排放控制目标以及净零时间表。传统的绿色金融无法满足碳密集型企业的转型需求,导致各国距离实现净零目标存在巨大的资金缺口,转型金融应运而生,并逐渐受到人们的广泛关注。从转型金融的概念出发,阐述转型金融在优化资源配置和管理转型风险方面的功能作用,并结合国际市场实践明确转型金融的发展前景。通过阐释转型金融发展的逻辑机理,对比分析国际上主流的转型融资方法,形成转型金融发展框架的五大核心要素。为此,今后应加强顶层政策体系的协同与约束力度、统一和完善转型金融的界定标准,并积极开展转型金融相关的理论创新。

共保协议的反垄断豁免

共保协议具有固定价格型横向垄断协议的外观,其“统一承保、统一分配保费收入”及“统一保险合同”等约定也具备竞争损害效果,原则上应被视为垄断协议予以禁止,但由于保险共保体模式在分散特定风险方面不可替代的优势,其在一定条件下符合反垄断豁免要求。若要获得反垄断豁免,共保协议需满足承保的风险只能通过共保体模式才能有效分散、统一使用的保险费率与保险内容未超出合理范围、不存在其他反竞争的约定等三项条件。其中,共保协议豁免的风险范围应限制为巨灾风险、新型风险、系统性风险;保险费率范围应限制为不低于纯风险保费费率且不过分高于纯风险保费费率;保险合同内容应满足不存在权利义务关系明显失衡的情形、不能导致消费者无法找到自己需要的保险条款和不能存在其他有碍消费者利益的条款等限制。

基于二维云模型的进近管制系统安全风险评估

进近管制系统的安全运行是确保民航运输安全的关键。安全风险评估是风险管理的基础,其可以提升安全风险管理效率,提高系统整体运行的安全性。同时考虑安全风险因素和安全风险事件,从管制员风险、设备风险、气象环境风险、管制环境风险和管理风险等5大方面建立进近管制系统安全风险评估指标体系;通过二维云模型得到某进近管制系统的安全风险等级为Ⅲ级并与一维云模型对比,证明评估模型具有有效性。将组合赋权的方法与改进的层次分析法和CRITIC法作对比分析,结果表明:组合赋权的方法不仅减少了主观随意性,还中和了主客观权重的不足;使用组合赋权-二维云模型进行进近管制系统安全风险评估结果更加准确。

关注尾部风险:贸易政策不确定性、预期与人民币汇率变动

贸易是决定汇率的首要因素,而贸易政策变动带来的不确定性如何影响人民币汇率双向变动?本研究基于无抛补利率平价思想,引入贸易政策不确定性的尾部风险对汇率预期的影响,建立中美贸易政策不确定性与人民币汇率关系的理论模型,进而基于交叉分位数回归模型探究中美贸易政策不确定性对人民币在岸与离岸市场的短期影响.实证结果表明中国和美国贸易政策不确定性对人民币在岸与离岸汇率冲击具有非对称性和尾部特征,且中国贸易政策不确定性对人民币汇率的影响占主导地位.最后,贸易政策不确定性通过改变外汇市场投资者的预期进一步作用于人民币汇率变动.因此,央行要加强针对尾部风险的主动应对措施,投资者需关注贸易政策改变带来的不确定性而调整套期保值策略。

人工智能将会“抢走”谁的工作?——异质劳动者的就业替代风险

人工智能及控制设备在生产中的应用,对劳动者就业具有替代效应。当前国内研究大多以职业的人工智能替代风险作为测算对象,较少直接关注异质劳动者的人工智能就业替代风险。本文基于工作任务方法,利用中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,选取劳动者个人特征、工作任务和从事职业特征三方面输入变量,运用机器学习模型测算每一劳动者个体的替代概率。依据个人特征将劳动者划分为12个异质性群体,对比分析异质劳动者群体的就业替代风险。结果表明:(1)我国处于低、中、高替代风险等级的劳动者份额依次为52.9%、24.2%和22.8%;(2)“使用互联网”工作任务、所从事职业的“学历要求”和“培训要求”三个变量对劳动者的替代风险影响较大;(3)受教育程度低的劳动者群体的平均替代概率较高,其中处于23~35岁劳动者的替代概率最低;(4)职业流动是化解劳动力市场总体替代风险的有效途径,但其效用对劳动者个体是非对称的;(5)部分高风险劳动者的替代风险倾向于固化,需警惕其替代风险转化为失业风险。

基于生理的毒代/毒效动力学定量体外-体内外推技术

基于新途径方法(NAMs)的下一代风险评估策略和技术体系在全球范围内悄然兴起。作为NAMs的重要组成部分,定量体外-体内外推(QIVIVE)已逐渐成为化学物质毒性测试与风险评估的重要技术之一。QIVIVE的实施依赖于计算毒理学的两大模型:基于生理的毒代动力学和基于生理的毒效动力学。本文重点介绍上述两大模型的基本原理、构建流程和应用等,旨在为化学物质的健康风险评估提供高效、准确的毒性测试路径。

Estimating the Degree of Earthquake Risk from Fault Characteristics

A theoretical model considering the relationship between fault characteristics and tectonic stress is proposed to quantify earthquake risk degree. The model is applied in practice to the fault along the southern margin of Weihe basin in Shaanxi Province, Northwestern China and fitted well with reality.

基于风险的通用人工智能监管——从欧盟《人工智能法案》视角展开

以ChatGPT为代表的通用人工智能火爆全球,在改变我们生活以及提升生产效率的同时,也引发了一系列的监管挑战。为此,欧盟《人工智能法案》采取了一种基于风险的监管方法,通过对不同人工智能的风险进行评估,将人工智能风险分为不可接受的风险、高风险、有限风险、最小风险几个等级,并对应赋予了相应等级的义务。但是,鉴于通用人工智能无固定任务性、适应性、突现性等特点,对其监管有别于传统人工智能,欧盟此种自上而下的静态风险规制路径难以有效监管通用人工智能。因此,有必要采取一种动态风险规制方法,将人工智能风险类别转化为动态风险情景,把风险的主要因素类型化为危害、暴露、脆弱性以及反应。在判断风险的等级时,需综合危害、暴露、脆弱性以及反应四个要素。同时,鉴于提供者、私人机构制定高风险标准的缺陷,应由立法者授权相关行政主管机关制定高风险的标准,并立足于通用人工智能的开发到使用进行全流程监管。

黄河入海口沉积物中硒的质量基准研究及风险评估

为有效保护黄河入海口流域水环境质量和水生态健康,并为硒(Se)的环境管理和风险评估提供数据支撑和科学依据,本研究使用基于组织的基准(tissue based criteria,TBC)并结合相平衡分配法(equilibrium partitioning approach,EqPA)初步推导了Se的沉积物质量基准(sediment quality criteria,SQC),评估了黄河入海口流域沉积物中Se的生态风险水平。测定了黄河入海口8个采样点的表层沉积物及其孔隙水Se含量,结果表明,沉积物中Se的浓度范围为2.13~3.41 mg/kg,平均浓度为2.95 mg/kg;Se在固相和水相之间的分配系数为2757 L/kg,且Se的SQC值为0.80 mg/kg。基于本研究中推导的SQC,黄河入海口流域沉积物中Se的生态风险水平较高,可能会对水生态系统产生有害作用,需要开展进一步的研究。

时空迭嬗视域下数字意识形态安全风险治理的实践进路

数字技术的迭代与应用正推动着以时空迭嬗为表征的时空演变,已成为数字意识形态安全风险治理的技术赋能力量。数字意识形态是数字时代意识形态发展的新形态。数字空间中信息生产方式迭变窒碍社会共识凝聚的风险,话语表达场域迭嬗导致主流意识形态话语表达式微的风险,西方意识形态与不良社会思潮错综交织威胁主流意识形态安全的风险等,其为数字意识形态安全的现实表征。对此,应基于内外环境的迭嬗,通过完善数字信息内容生产,提升数字空间主流意识形态的聚合力;强化数字话语转化,提升数字空间主流意识形态话语引领力;优化数字传播手段,增强数字空间主流意识形态传播力,不断筑牢数字意识形态安全屏障。

替代动物实验中的体外-体内外推方法

危害和暴露数据的匮乏是化学物质风险评估面临的艰巨挑战。21世纪以来,使用高效经济的非动物试验方法替代传统的资源消耗型动物试验已成为必然趋势,形成了以体外测试(in vitro)、计算机模拟(in silico)、交叉参照(read across)和体外-体内外推(IVIVE)等新路线方法学(NAMs),为下一代健康风险评估(NGRA)提供了新的解决方案。NAMs的主流技术路线利用体外测试方法获得化学物质的吸收、分布、代谢和排泄数据(ADME)构建毒代动力学(TK)模型、利用高通量体外测试和有害结局路径(AOP)等方法获得毒效动力学(TD)参数,代替传统危害评估中的动物实验方法。其中,IVIVE是沟通体外测试数据与动物试验数据等效链接的桥梁。本文从IVIVE的方法内涵与策略、生理毒代动力学模型(PBTK)技术框架与IVIVE流程、应用典型案例、风险管理实践等多角度综述分析IVIVE在推进替代动物实验方法应用以及在风险评估研究前沿中的重要地位,并以TK-IVIVE为重点讨论其在食品中化学物质风险评估与管理中的策略和应用。