RMB Appreciation, Corporate Behavior and Export Trade：

This paper sets up a simplified dynamic discrete selection model to analyze two-stage decision of corporate export behavior and influence of exchange rate under the framework of profit maximization. Then we adopt Heckman selection model to estimate general effects and structural effects of RMB appreciation on export based on the sample data of China Industrial Enterprises from 2005 to 2009. Findings reveal that RMB appreciation has exerted a significant negative impact to corporate export through extensive margins and intensive margins. Meanwhile, due to different corporate strategies of heterogeneous enterprises, RMB appreciation cannot achieve the expected effect of ＂survival of the fittest＂ and is instead unfavorable to the optimization of export structure. RMB appreciatiou drives industry structure of export to evolve towards advanced levels to a certain extent. However, such a positive effect mainly derives from the contribution of foreign-funded enterprises while restricting development space of indigenous firms in the sector of advanced manufacturing.

The Reform on RMB Exchange Rate System

The Chinese currency, the yuan, which was pegged to the value of US dollar in the past, will now be a managed currency. Its value will be set in relation to a basket of currencies. China is taking the first big step toward a free-floating currency. This analysis explores the impacts on Chinese banking, Chinese companies and international monetary market.

The Influence of RMB Appreciation on Chinese Textile Industry

Textile industry is the biggest industry that gains foreign exchange through export in China, and the dependence rate of either export or import is high. RMB continuous appreciation brings China both chance and challenge. On the one hand, it reduces the import cost of raw materials and equipments; on the other hand, it weakens the price advantage of textile industry in China; at the same time, it promotes the transformation and the integration of textile business enterprise.

Analysis on Forming Reason of RMB Appreciation Expectation

Since 2003, there has been a strong RMB appreciation expectation in the market. RMB exchange rate becomes the world focus again. This paper insists that the depreciation pressure of US dollar is the main reason that causes RMB appreciation expectation; the ＂double price action＂ of the Chinese tradable goods and non-tradable goods is the special reason that leads to RMB appreciation expectation; furthermore, the asymmetric foreign exchange rate management system in China strengthens RMB appreciation expectation.

The Appreciation Pressure on RMB Yuan and the Adjustment of RMB Exchange Rate Policy

China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the current formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, Chinese government could widen the floating band around the central parity; in the long run, switching the peg from USD alone to a basket of currencies may be a better choice.

Export 2008':Riding a Tiger Influences of CPI growth and RMB appreciation on Chinese textile export

2007 has already said farewell to us,however,the influences and meditations it brought are still fresh.In the past year, Chinese textile industry has waved through ups and downs:increasing austerity of external environment and adjustment of internal policies seemingly kept squeezing its profit margin,even the living space. But,to everyone’s gratification, many Chinese textile industries survived from diversity and carved out ways through twists and turns.However,while we were ready to breathe for relief,the snow of 2008 once again triggered people’s worries,and the continuing CPI growth as well as RMB appreciation circumstance,many export-oriented enterprises,like riding a tiger,are tortured by the idea whether do textile business or not, if do,how.Fortunately, some enterprise began to turn their attention to domestic market and pay more efforts to brand building and technology innovation with intends to develop new markets……

A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Benefits Distribution in China-U.S. Trade during 1978-2007

The Sino-U.S. trade imbalance and the related debate on RMB appreciation have attracted much attention in recent years. Judging objectively, however, the trade imbalance does not necessarily result in an imbalance in the distribution of trade benefits. By analyzing the distribution of benefits in Sino-U.S. trade from 1978 to 2007, this paper finds that bilateral trade has brought positive benefits to both sides, differentially in terms of production and consumption. Simply put, China has gained benefits for production yet suffered in terms of consumption, whereas the opposite is true for the U.S.. Moreover, even during periods in which the U.S. experienced a trade deficit, its citizens gained larger total individual benefits than those in a period of trade surplus. We argue, therefore, that appreciation of the RMB would reduce the trade benefits for both sides by almost the same margin, bringing little benefit to the United States.

Adjustment of Global Imbalances and Its Impact on China’s Economy

The present paper discusses ways of adjusting the imbalances of the global economy and its impact on China＇s economy. The analysis in the paper shows that the cut of US fiscal deficits and the appreciation of the currencies of East Asia, including China＇s RMB, are necessary for a smooth adjustment of the global imbalances. The adjustments will have a positive impact on China＇s economy and will help China realize its external balance. The increase in public spending on the service sector along with the appreciation of RMB will help China realize the internal balance too. The adjustment of the global imbalances will create opportunities and an external pushing force for China in its industrial restructuring and shift in the model of economic growth.

Exchange Rate Pass-through in China

During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation in controlling inflation depends on the impact of exchange rate movements on import and domestic prices. Our analysis finds fairly large and speedy exchange rate pass-through （ERPT） to import prices： 50 and 60percent for the short run and long run, respectively. However, the degree of ERPT decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices. ERPT for consumer prices, the most downstream prices, is much milder and has substantial lags. A 10-percent rise in the nominal effective exchange rate will dampen consumer prices by 1.1 percent within a year, with very little pass-through in the first half year, and by 2.0percent over the long run. These findings, particularly the ERPT to consumer prices, suggest that RMB appreciation can help to reduce inflationary pressures over the longer term. However, it is unlikely to provide rapid relief to the current round of high inflation because of the long lags in ERPZ. The RMB needs to strengthen in effective terms to exert the desired dampening impact on prices.

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Relevance of International Experience to China’s Decision

The Chinese exchange rate has been the focus of discussion for many months, with bothinternal and external considerations seemingly pointing to the desirability of a currencyrevaluation. This paper draws from the lessons of international experience with exchange-rate regimes in the period since World War Two. It lays out the conditions necessary tovalidate a fixed exchange rate and some intermediate regimes that might work when a fixedrate is inappropriate. It then discusses what the analysis implies for contemporary China.